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timoth3y

3,111 karma · joined June 9, 2016

Personal: https://www.disruptingjapan.com/
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timoth3y··on A Dyson Swarm Made of Solar Panels Would Make Earth Uninhabitable
Fusion reactors can breed their own tritium. In fact, they will have to do so if fusion energy is to become widespread. Furthermore, pound-per-pound of equipment, a fusion reactor should generate more output than solar PV.

The larger point is how these ideas get lodged in the culture. Looking for stelar anomalies in line with a Dyson sphere/cluster is an accepted part of the search for extraterrestrial life.

The speculation about the future from 60 years ago needs to be updated occasionally.

timoth3y··on A Dyson Swarm Made of Solar Panels Would Make Earth Uninhabitable
It's amazing how long it takes these popular memes to catch up with with scientific progress.

The Dyson sphere and the Kardashev scale were brilliant ideas in their time, but today we know they are the wrong approach. Collecting solar energy in this way would be incredibly inefficient and expensive.

Once fusion becomes functional, it makes far more sense to use the sun as a fuel source and use a bit of the hydrogen to generate needed power.

In the grand spirit of futurism, the engineering challenges of such a system are left as an exercise for the reader.

timoth3y··on AI tools are spotting errors in research papers
Perhaps this is a naive question from a non-academic, but why isn't deliberately falsifying data or using AI tools or photoshop to create images career-ending?

Wouldn't a more direct system be one in which journals refused submissions if one of the authors had committed deliberate fraud in a previous paper?

timoth3y··on "Ensuring Accountability for All Agencies" – Executive Order
> Not true. A majority of the Americans who chose to vote voted for Trump.

Not true. A plurality of the Americans who chose to vote voted for Trump. Trump: 49.8% Harris: 48.3%

timoth3y··on "Ensuring Accountability for All Agencies" – Executive Order
> The executive branch of government is more accurately viewed as a monolithic organization which derives 100% of it's authority by delegation from the US President

That is inaccurate. Almost all federal departments and agencies derive their authority from acts of Congress. The President has very limited authority to create and empower agencies.

The strongest argument against the CFPB is that is was not created by an act of Congress. Trump could not create a DOGE so he renamed the USDS. He cannot shut down USAID, but he can mismanage it.

The president is required by law to execute the laws passed by Congress even if he strongly disagrees. The mass firings and funding holds have the legal fig leaf that he is managing them to the best of his ability.

timoth3y··on "Ensuring Accountability for All Agencies" – Executive Order
I know this sounds corny, but people are the recourse. We are part of the checks and balances.

Whether it is as overt as a soldier refusing to follow an illegal order knowing they are risking court marshal, or as clandestine as mid-level bureaucrat slow-walking damaging policies, or people actually voting in local-to-national elections.

Democracy is not a passive form of government.

timoth3y··on "Ensuring Accountability for All Agencies" – Executive Order
> The employees of the executive branch are not intended to be a check on the executive branch's powers.

That's not entirely correct. All civil servants and military swear an oath the Constitution and are required to disobey illegal orders. This EO attempts to largely eliminate the concept of illegal orders.

timoth3y··on "Ensuring Accountability for All Agencies" – Executive Order
Even with a highly sympathetic Supreme Court it is hard to imagine this EO standing.

It goes against the foundation of not only US law, but couple of hundred years of international democratic tradition in which allegiance is not to a person, but to the nation itself.

US civil servants and military alike swear an oath to support and defend the Constitution not the president or their commander. Illegal orders are not only expected, but required to be disobeyed.

This EO eliminates the concept of an illegal order since the law would be whatever the executive interprets it to be.

timoth3y··on Add "fucking" to your Google searches to neutralize AI summaries
> At this point I'm convinced that the endless AI hype and all the investment is purely due to hopes that it will soon put vast amounts of employees out of work

That's certainly part of it.

However, at this point I think a lot of it is a kind of emotional sunk-cost. To stop now would require a lot of very wealthy and powerful people to admit they had personally made a very serious mistake.

timoth3y··on [dead]
Google displays place names as their official local names. The same place can be named differently baed on the location of the user.
timoth3y··on Larry Ellison: vast AI surveillance can ensure citizens are on best behavior (2024)
> "We're going to have supervision," Ellison said.

I literally read that as "supervillain" when I first read it.

timoth3y··on Trump-backed memecoin value tops $13B
If someone wishing to get in Trump's good graces purchased $10M in $TRUMP coins directly from his holding company, it would not be obvious bribery since he would be selling those assets at "fair market value".

Since such transactions would be off-exchange, they would not impact the traded price much, and some of the money could be recycled to support the publicly traded price high.

It's going to be a crazy four years.

timoth3y··on I was wrong about the ethics crisis
> "I bemoaned that humanity seems to be serving technology rather than the other > way around. I argued that tech corporations have become too powerful and their > power must be curtailed." > That's a generic problem with corporatism and monopoly, not "tech".

If you wound enjoy a deep and rigorous treatment of this subject, I strongly recommend Martin Heidegger's "The Question Concerning Technology."

He argues that modern technology is fundamentally different from historical technology, and that corporatism and monopoly are the inevitable result of technology.

timoth3y··on Why making friends as an adult is harder
Most of the things mentioned in the article result in making friends as an adult being different than making friends as a child, but not necessarily harder. I'm in my late 50s and continue to make new friends.

I think the larger problem is that many approach friendship with the wrong expectations. As Zig Ziglar said.

"If you going out trying to find a friend, friends are scarce. If you go out trying to be a friend, friends are everywhere."

timoth3y··on Ghost artists on Spotify
The entire history of the music business is one of attorneys developing ever more inventive ways of screwing over musicians.

The sad thing (for artists) is that it seems like most Spotify listeners don't care.

Most of our music consumption today seems to be as a kind of background vibe rather than an appreciation of the music itself.

timoth3y··on In Defense of Y'All
Let's not forget the second person negative and the wonderful contraction of "you all are not".

y'aint.

timoth3y··on Before shooting, Brian Thompson worried about UnitedHealth's negative image
It's notable that his concern was not that his company's policies were killing thousands of people, but that those deaths resulted in a "negative image".
timoth3y··on China completes green belt around Taklamakan Desert
The US "Shelterbelt" project in the 1930s in response to the dustbowl was of a similar vein. It involved planting over 220 million trees.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Plains_Shelterbelt

timoth3y··on A mistake that killed Japan's software industry? (2023)
Those are all strong and (at varying times) very innovative companies, but I don't see how any of them were positioned to be media companies in Japan. Sony owns a lot of media assets (ie Sony Pictures) but those are from M&A rather than something developed by the core business.

LINE is far more popular in Japan than WhatsApp. It's a Korean company, and if you mean why it never took off outside of Asia, I suspect its a matter of network effects, but I have not looked into it in detail.

timoth3y··on A mistake that killed Japan's software industry? (2023)
That's a great question.

I think that program was a good example of a overall inward-facing industrial policy that dominated in Japan in the 1980s.

I'm not sure how much that one program was at fault, but it a great example of many similar misguided policies of the era.

When the feedback from the global markets was removed, most of this kind of planning just stopped working.

timoth3y··on A mistake that killed Japan's software industry? (2023)
Hi, I'm the author and I'm delighted that people are still interested in this topic.

There are a lot of great comments, but I'd like to collect and respond in bulk to the ones about keiretsu, since there are a lot of misunderstanding about them.

1) It's not the keiretsu, it's X. It's not just the existence of keiretsu in isolation. They keiretsu produced incredible innovations in the 60s and 70s. It was the combination of the keiretsu control and the shift to domestic markets (which the keiretsu also controlled) that killed the PC software industry in its infancy.

2) Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google are like keirestsu. They really are not. In fact, they operate on a radically different philosophy. Keiretsu would be willing to lose money (and a lot of it) in order to keep business in-house. Their supply chains were owned, integrated, and exclusive. Employees did not leave their keirestu group It fostered innovation as long as they were export facing, but it fell apart once they started to focus on the domestic market.

Thank you again for reading. I'm happy to discuss.

timoth3y··on A mistake that killed Japan's software industry? (2023)
> home computers never really made sense until it was far, far too late.

That's not really the case. There were a lot of PCs in the 1980s and Japan was a strong leader in the early laptop market as well. All these PCs and many hand-held devices for sale then handled the character set just fine.

timoth3y··on A mistake that killed Japan's software industry? (2023)
Line was actually a Korean startup. There days, it's not a great app, but strong network effects keep it dominant here in Japan.
timoth3y··on The different content TikTok and X showed an undecided voter
A less nefarious explanation is that the 44-year old Gabriela persona was shown more Harris-leaning content because she more closely meets the demographic of a Harris voter.

The algorithms are designed for exactly that kind of targeting.

It would interesting to know what TikTok showed the 71-year old Larry persona. X flooding the feeds of a Harris-leaning demographic with Trump-leaning content they are less likely to engage with seems suspect, but it's only one data point.

We can't draw any conclusions until we see the results from all the personas, but for some reason the author did not share them.

timoth3y··on Nuclear Fusion's New Idea: An Off-the-Shelf Stellarator
I'm having trouble understanding what's actually been accomplished here. The article provides a good overview of Tokamak vs Stellarator, but seems to jump back and forth between proclaiming this as an innovative breakthrough and saying it's just a framework to test ideas.

> In terms of its ability to confine particles, Muse is two orders of magnitude better than any stellarator previously built

Is it? It doesn't seem as if they have reached first plasma or have plans to do so anytime soon. Using electromagnets to not only confine but also to control the the plasma is a big selling point of the stellarator design, and they don't seem to address this.

This seems really cool, and I love the idea of lower-cost fusion. (Or even just functional fusion.) There are about a dozen companies making real progress in fusion, but I can't quite figure out what this team has actually accomplished.

What am I missing?

timoth3y··on NotebookLM's automatically generated podcasts are surprisingly effective
In the case of those books and podcasts, who cares if you read or listen to them? The point is that the books are sold and make the right lists. The point is that the podcasts are downloaded so ads can be sold or that vanity numbers can be reported.

In terms of such music and films (whether created by human or AI) sometimes it's just because we are social creatures and need shared experiences to talk with others about.

timoth3y··on NotebookLM's automatically generated podcasts are surprisingly effective
NotebookLM's is incredibly good at generating the affect and structure of a quality podcast.

This is in-line with all art, music, and video created by LMM at the moment. They are imitating a structure and affect, the quality of the content is largely irrelevant.

I think the interesting thing is that most people don't really care, and AI is not to blame for that.

Most books published today have the affect of a book, but the author doesn't really have anything to say. Publishing a book is not about communicating ideas, but a means to something else. It's not meant to stand on its own.

The reason so much writing, podcasting, and music is vulnerable to AI disruption is that quality has already become secondary.

timoth3y··on The Palletrone is a robotic hovercart for moving stuff anywhere
"Palletrone"?!

What a missed opportunity. "Palledrone" was right there.

They could have had a portmanteau that's a homophone of palindrome.

What the project lacks in utility it could have made up for in linguistic cleverness.

timoth3y··on Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B
Not to say we are in an AI bubble, but billion-dollar seed rounds are not really normal.
timoth3y··on Woolly mammoth 'de-extinction' is nearing reality
OK. You sent me down a new rabbit hole. It was fun. Thank you for that!

It is really interesting that a mammal can survive without its fauna. The fact that it's possible at all is important.

Axenic mice, however, need to be bred and maintained in isolators and they need to be fed a carefully prepared diet to keep them alive.

In practice, particularly in the context of de-extinction, the overall point still stands. Having the DNA does not mean we can create a viable organism. Is an elephant's fauna "close enough" so the calf can pick it up from the mother and use it?

Maybe?

But we are looking at micro-organisms separated by 10,000 years and from two very different climates, so I'm not sure if the odds are favorable.

== Edit :spelling

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