tightbookkeeper

How is the cause of death determined for 250k people?

EDIT: I got curious and looked up the CDC guidelines https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf

> based on sound medical judgment drawn from clinical training and experience, as well as knowledge of current disease states and local trends

> the disease or injury which initiated the train of morbid events leading directly to death

It goes on to suggest that if Covid was present they strongly recommend including it. And even if you did not diagnose Covid it can be a good assumption to make.

Based on the percentage of young people who got Covid (very high) and were disabled (very few), this doesn’t seem significant.

Of a lower charge. Not rape (and reminding you for the 3rd time of preponderance of evidence standard)

Yep. And the Jury seemed to agree, even in the CIVIL TRIAL.

But I’m not here to be trumps lawyer. I’m here to tell you that you that this scapegoating and conspiring is giving you nothing but anger and not helping you understand the events this week.

> civil trial

So not a criminal case than? Trump didn’t even attend.

The article says the jury did not find enough evidence of the rape claim even at the lower requirement of the civil court.

> Carroll “cannot produce any objective evidence to back up her claim because it didn’t happen,” he told jurors.

No. That would be being unable and unwilling to build a theory of mind to understand 80 million people from all walks of life.

Did I say any of that?

> rapist

Source?

I think you replied without understanding the context of the discussion.

Thanks. I don’t think I’m ready to break this down Socraticly to find our shared understanding.

Yes. I think having a healthy community and successful future political campaign will require reframing this rhetoric.

You’re missing the point. Axiomatic systems aim to be internally consistent. The question is whether they are good model of a real life situation. Your technical knowledge is distracting you from the more fundamental questions.

There is no sense in which Harris had a 50% chance and had an unlucky day. The only “chance” going on is how likely the poll sample represents the population. The math behind that assumes you have a genuine sample and ignores realities like preference falsification.

Please think and read charitably before making personal attacks. I generally take that as a sign you are acting in bad faith and I do not want to interact with you. Goodbye.

> From a frequentist perspective

This is so confused. The probability models are designed to describe situations where cause and effect is not known.causes still exist whether you can repeat them in an experiment,

You are confusing logical models with real world decisions and actions.

Maybe. I would argue that while he is fully on board the trump train now, he was not a few years ago. When you are harshly criticized for a few unorthodox views, it’s not surprising you embrace those treating you legitimately.

I personally don’t see much similarity between the mayflower (Europeans exiled to underpopulated territory in the empire) to a Chinese grad student coming to work a tech company. And that’s the ideal case!

With this issue it’s all about the particulars

Im suggesting an election is not a random event. Sampling error terminology is being mistaken for probability of the underlying thing.

There was no 50/50 chance of the voter base waking up and instead voting for Kamala yesterday.

> he's a tall, confident white man

Imagery, vibes, personality, all of these have powerful effects on people, educated or not.

Few can express how these intangibles impact them, and if they can they are usually won’t say it out loud,

This is why you NEED to run a primary, to debug your campaign. You don’t know how your candidate looks and feels to people in Tennessee, etc until you try it.

If Reddit isn’t real life, then twitter definitely isn’t. No website could do what you saw.

Did they get an unlucky dice roll then?

If he didn’t win it, the democrats narrative right now would be the electoral college is a fraudulent system and he is illegitimate. #notmypresident

Now you can question 2nd order effects, but that’s not a message that’s easy to communicate through media.

Maybe 4th time is the charm with this kind of divisive messaging?

Running a primary is like checking in code to the build. You learn a lot of things you cant anticipate, without engaging with the real world.

For elections this includes all the things that people think about a candidate that they don’t feel comfortable saying out loud, or even operate subconsciously.

A candidate without a primary is extremely risky.

> working class communities are more accepting of male-female dynamics

I agree. Gender differences seem to be exaggerated, while in upper classes women and men converge to androgyny. One contributing factor is that surviving on low incomes requires more differentiated roles (care taker vs manual laborer).

Lots of little locks littered all over the place.

It’s actually that large organizations operate on people with average skill, and there is a significant inefficiencies as organizations grow.

So yes, 10 skilled people could run a site that large (and do). But you can’t run a company to recruit and manage that team over decades. “Well just find 10 smart and motivated people who work well together and can be given autonomy to do the right thing and hope they give us what we want” is not an actionable management plan.

> the striking union is the one that contains all the data analysts

You seem to believe a union in a negotiation would care about carefully drawing conclusions from data analysis.

The goal is to construct a political wedge which makes their employer look bad for not giving into their demands. The only mindset about data is “how can we use this to argue for what we want”.

Exactly. A few years ago everyone outside of tech was excited about a study from Google showing that “soft skills” were more important for career advancement for engineers within Google.

And it’s almost tautological: people who are good at playing organizational games succeed in the organization. Actually measuring engineering productivity isn’t solved at all.

And every other human social bias: attractiveness, confidence, loyalty, etc.

You can’t point to gender and say that’s the clear and overwhelming bias.

Yes, the western liberal project led by the US is a worldwide phenomenon, especially after the Cold War, world bank. Etc,

But what we’ve seen over the past decades is other countries reexamine what parts are actually good for them.

For example Japan has a stock market, and it was a lot like the US in the 80s. But now it looks and operates with nationalist priorities which are very different,

> Who doesn't have political yard signs?

Anybody really excited about democracy in the US also has to reconcile with marketing. People will literally vote because of a tv commercial.

This is not a normal system you will find anywhere else. And it’s pretty obvious to outsiders that US media plays a weird state function in it as well.

But Chinese citizens know the US exists? This feels like projection. The US wants to act as if stock markets and political yard signs are the only usable system.

> you just have to wait for the developer

If it’s open source then it can be patched in bsd packages manager.

Most usage of pledge is here rather than being upstreamed.