Did they get an unlucky dice roll then?
There was no 50/50 chance of the voter base waking up and instead voting for Kamala yesterday.
From a frequentist perspective, it makes no sense to talk about probabilities of the outcomes of processes that can't be repeated, such as elections. So the question is then, "Why couldn't the polls predict a result?" And we know the answer: because the polls weren't precise enough. We already knew that.
From a Bayesian perspective, lack of knowledge is the same thing as nondeterminism in the underlying processes. So, to a Bayesian, you're just wrong; there was a 52/48 chance of the voter base waking up and instead voting for Kamala yesterday.
If from some other formulation, which?
This is so confused. The probability models are designed to describe situations where cause and effect is not known.causes still exist whether you can repeat them in an experiment,
You are confusing logical models with real world decisions and actions.
There is no sense in which Harris had a 50% chance and had an unlucky day. The only “chance” going on is how likely the poll sample represents the population. The math behind that assumes you have a genuine sample and ignores realities like preference falsification.
Please think and read charitably before making personal attacks. I generally take that as a sign you are acting in bad faith and I do not want to interact with you. Goodbye.