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throwaway5752

11,214 karma · joined December 30, 2013

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throwaway5752··on Palantir founder purchases large swath of forest in Sweden
Probably to survive or profit from the imminent collapse of human friendly global climate conditions.
throwaway5752··on Artificial intelligence now beats some of the best human forecasters
The best human forecasters working with artificial intelligence are going to do even better than either alone, the dichotomy is artificial.
throwaway5752··on More questions about whether researchers can trust OpenAI with unpublished math
The reality would be the same. They probably used prior session history between the research and Astra to train the internal model, and used it to front run-the researcher.

This is the biggest self-own in the history of software. If you can relate to Pixar, OpenAI is Chick Hicks celebrating at the end of the Piston Cup and wondering why he's getting booed.

The lack of self-awareness is something to behold, and says a lot about their corporate values.

throwaway5752··on Europe's summer drought is so extreme that desertification is a growing threat
It's popular right now because the impacts are visibly getting worse. This weather event in Europe is far from normal, and the trend is accelerating.

If we fail to control it, what will happen is that we'll be reduced in population by an order of magnitude or two. We won't be able to sustain the technology we've created, we'll have mined easily accessible minerals and energy, and there is a real chance we will not return to being an advanced species in the same way we are today.

A simple reduction to greens vs not-greens is not helping anything. We can use more solar and wind. We can be more efficient with energy. We can stop burning hydrocarbons immediately and reserve the for material science and we can replace most car energy sources with electric.

None of this is even difficult, it just hurts some established interests who are fighting it with everything they have. They would rather that the planet get destroyed than to lose their wealth and power.

I'd prefer my kids not live in Bladerunner, also, and right now that's the path we're on.

throwaway5752··on Europe's summer drought is so extreme that desertification is a growing threat
"we are never returning to pre industrial times"

We are, one way or the other. It is just a question of the choices we make on the way and how pre-industrial we end up.

There is no a position of leverage, the climate is behaving as modeled and expected. We know what will happen next.

throwaway5752··on Ultraviolet Bird Photography
Happy to realize this did not say ultraviolent. A small but confusing Clockwork Orange reading mistake.
throwaway5752··on In Memory of My Wife, Elise Cawley, with Thanks for 36 Wonderful Years
Stephen, we haven't met, but this was a beautiful, heartbreaking tribute. Your wife was clearly an extraordinary person. My deepest condolences to you and your family.

Should everyone have someone who loves them so much to remember them like this.

throwaway5752··on Modern decor may be straining people's brains
This is a false dichotomy. The modern style is a reaction against a distinct and different design aesthetic from what the parent described. Neoclassical, Gothic Revival, and Rococo are more ornamental, but they not cozy or comfortable in the same way.

This being said, the title is accurate to the article but misleading. The subtitle is about "Striped Floors and Flickering LEDs". It isn't modern design, it's specific elements of modern design.

I'd suggest that the striped/patterned floors/LED points transcend styles, and would cause issues even in a more ornate/classical design. Style is individual, and I expect the diversities of brains and thinking patterns means that there is no right answer for what style is best for people.

The most interesting part of the article wasn't really reflective of style, it was visually crowded environments. They used the example of supermarkets, and that seems distinct from a visually rich style like the grandparent comment's home or Neo Gothic cathedrals. Being in a forest is visually crowded, too, but I'd expect it has the opposite effect the study measured. I think the fractal dimension of the detail, if they correlated it with the degree of distress, would be a factor.

throwaway5752··on Global review confirms mRNA vaccines are safe, effective and full of promise 
This was very uncommon. It was also unrelated to mRNA vaccines, it was the AstroZeneca vaccine vaxzevria, and it was based on an adenovirus.
throwaway5752··on xAI is looking more like a datacentre REIT than a frontier lab
Respectfully, I tend to think of tier 1 data centers as someone I'm paying for colocation services and the value they provide is power infrastructure and redundancy, network infrastructure and redundancy, cooling, and physical security.

The shortage I referred to is in GPUs, that's what really being rented here.

Even if GPUs lasted forever, they're are a depreciating asset because they become obsolete with improvements over generations.

GPUs do not last forever, either. I've read here, and heard from others, that they aren't even living up to their 5 year depreciation schedules under production load, closer to 2-3 years.

I use AI all the time. I hope AI isn't short lived. It might be if they can't figure this shit out, or if IPOs like spacex poison public opinion against them first.

throwaway5752··on xAI is looking more like a datacentre REIT than a frontier lab
There is a shortage, they are short lived assets. It's a blip and unrelated to their long term profitability and valuation. They can't make a long lived business of building and renting out compute at those margins.

It was definitely a smart business move. It should be troubling to any shareholder than xAI is unable to utilize this infrastructure as renting it out to competitors.

throwaway5752··on xAI is looking more like a datacentre REIT than a frontier lab
xAI is more than half of SpaceX revenue with the Google sublease. SpaceX is looking like a datacenter REIT.

Moreover they're leasing compute - the actual infra around it is much less important - and how long does anyone expect heavily utilized GPUs to run? How likely is SpaceX to be able to re-lease this compute capacity? It will be broken down or out of date in 2-3 years.

This should be essentially ignored in the long term for SpaceX business prospects, and is low margin business that barely justifies a 10x earnings multiple let along a 100 revenue multiple for the xAI unit.

throwaway5752··on Nvidia is proposing a beast of a CPU system for Windows PCs
"Major banana producer suggests shifting more ice cream store menus to banana splits, and increasing the amount of bananas per serving"
throwaway5752··on There's Something Else We Should Be Worrying About
The Earth's climate.
throwaway5752··on Citing 'severe' math deficits, UC faculty demand a return to SAT tests for STEM
It is smartphones and social media.

The decline is across demographics, across geographies, and correlated with an increase young mental health issues.

The answer is staring us in the face, quite literally, as we type this. We put a cheating and dopamine producing machine in the hands of children without any regulations. Of course it is harming their academic performance.

Ask a football coach if there kids are going to play tackle football and you'll be surprised how often you they won't let them. Ask an educator or psychologist at what age they give smart devices to their kids, and I'd guess it is 3-4 years above the median.

The policy doesn't matter when we're actively damaging the brains of children, which are not fully developed.

throwaway5752··on Citing 'severe' math deficits, UC faculty demand a return to SAT tests for STEM
It's funnier because it's old, failed policy that they are recycling without being aware of it because they are ignorant. All old things really do become new again.
throwaway5752··on Citing 'severe' math deficits, UC faculty demand a return to SAT tests for STEM
The people working on this aren't idiots.

There are people who see massive business opportunities for enriching themselves in privatizing the education system. Some of there points are reasonable, and sometimes they are frauds. Either way, they lobby hard and have a lot of generally Republican politicians in their pockets.

Also, teacher pay is terrible in comparison to the job stress and - reasonably and expected - educational requirements.

The education system is trying to deal with a probably that is out of their control, the increasing wealth stratification in the US, while fending off adversaries that with both good and bad intentioned reasons are trying to undermine the institutions of public education.

At the same time, we have a totally new societal threat in social media. If you haven't read "Careless People", read it. You seem societies around the world locking social media away from kids on the advice of professional groups of educators, pediatricians, and psychologists. There are hordes of irresponsible and negligent parents whose kids are barely functional, and working their way through the educational pipeline.

There is no easy fix here that anyone is missing. In a democracy, this is an existential national crisis, as we are all seeing in real time.

edit: don't ask me who is working on this. It just tells me you are unserious and just complaining. Try google. Hundreds of thousands of people are working on this. Please elaborate on your disagreement with teachers groups (NEA, AFT), the prior administration (American Rescue Plan), or the current administration (ECCA). Or disagreements with AmeriCorps or NPSS as private volunteer service groups groups. Or disagreements with private education advocates (CAPE, NAIS). You may not like all the administrators and principals and teachers as individuals working on it in the system, or PTA organizations outside the system. I could go on all day. But these people are all seriously concerned about the problem, even though they may disagree in areas - you are not special in awareness of this issue.

throwaway5752··on Alaska's oil revival sparks a new energy rush Into the Arctic
I do not think they could. It is not just a matter of seizing something as much as holding it, as everyone has plainly seen in Ukraine, or post-occupation Iraq or Afghanistan.

Neither of those latter countries had a large shared land border with the US and ethnically similar populations that would make it easy to attack unhardened infrastructure.

throwaway5752··on Alaska's oil revival sparks a new energy rush Into the Arctic
Do you know how much hard power credibility the US has lost from the Iran War failure?

The US couldn't defend our bases in the area or our newly less enthusiastic regional allies. It couldn't keep the Hormuz open. The US wasted years worth of advanced munitions inventory defending against relatively cheap missiles.

The US couldn't annex Canada if it wanted to. Canada doesn't even need a military to destroy the US via assymetric tactics.

throwaway5752··on Alaska's oil revival sparks a new energy rush Into the Arctic
The oil industry is dying and we are destroying the planet and a delicate ecosystem to harvest non-renewable energy. It should stay in the ground and be saved for future generations for an emergency, not to just power grossly oversized vehicles and social media content generation to manipulate people into buying things.
throwaway5752··on Magnifica Humanitas
This is history in the making. We're living in an evil time - bad people are stealing from humanity, using conflict to distract, and acquiring personal power out of greed. This will be one of the greatest moments in the papacy, and I expect if there are people around to read it, it will be talked about in a thousand years.
throwaway5752··on Green card seekers must leave U.S. to apply, Trump administration says
More than 80% of people applying for US Green Cards are not white.
throwaway5752··on Ebola Outbreak Now Third Largest Recorded and "Spreading Rapidly"
Since you asked, I do.

There's a matter of debate as to what populism is. And on both ends of that debate are Trump and Sanders.

Sanders is the archetype of an ideological populist, related to socialism, and he believes in governing for the popular good, it is why he is an independent. He's a throwback to early 20th century social programs. It is relatively noble and good. He wants fair redistribution of wealth. He wants to remove wealth's influence from the democratic process. He has a lifetime of track record and governance as proof.

Trump is the archetype of the "thin center" populist. He has no real driving philosophy of governance, and demagogues under the banner of populism. He panders to the religious right even though he can't name a book of the Bible. He panders to the nationalists and bigots. He panders to patriots. And he sets up his opposition, regardless of truth, as the opposite of those things.

Trump is a populist in the way the Goebbels set Hitler up as a populist (https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/article/making-a-l..., https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/photo/1934-nazi-pa..., and https://museums.nuernberg.de/documentation-center/topics/nat...). That is to say, he is not one at all, he just lies about it to exploit division.

edit: we're just talking past each other. Bernie Sanders is a left wing populist. Ron Paul is a right wing populist. Massie is a right wing populist. My point is that Trump is simply a fake populist. He says populist things and doesn't believe or act on them for the most part. He's simply a kleptocrat with autocratic tendencies.

throwaway5752··on Ebola Outbreak Now Third Largest Recorded and "Spreading Rapidly"
You're finding somethere where nothing exists on the basis of semantics. Donald Trump is not a populist and he stated economic policy is simply "stated". Society just has become so trusting that someone can go about bald-faced lying about their beliefs and actions, while doing the opposite, without consequence.

Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are on polar opposite ends of ideologies.

Bernie Sanders has a lifetime record of integrity, working to fairly distribute wealth, and good and transparent governance.

Donald Trump has a lifetime record of bankruptcies, fraud convictions, lying about his policies for the working while governing for the richest people, using government to enrich himself, and using government to hide his misdeeds and shield himself and his business partners from accountability. Donald Trump says he is many things he is not, and simply believing the words that come out of his mouth is being gullible.

I am not even a Bernie Sanders supporter.

throwaway5752··on The FBI Wants 'Near Real-Time' Access to US License Plate Readers
Absolutely. Run for the HOA board, run for the school board, run for the town council. Write a letter. Show up to a town hall meeting. Everything makes a difference and people here are more than sufficiently qualified.

We have lots of software developers being laid off. An elected position serves as resume filler, too. You'd be shocked what a difference you can make when you try a little.

throwaway5752··on The FBI Wants 'Near Real-Time' Access to US License Plate Readers
Realistically there’s not a ton that can be done at the level of a mayor or even state senator

I wish people wouldn't say that, it's not the case.

First, pushback requires equivalent effort. If 10,000 towns are uncooperative because 10,000 mayors resist this, the amount of political power to overcome this is incredibly large. The mayors can delay or cancel projects with uncooperative or malicious vendors. They can slow down approvals. This administration and the powers that want this espionage power understand this, which is why they target downstream races, school boards, and sheriff positions.

Second, a state senator is much, much more powerful than you give them credit. There are usually much fewer of them than members of the US House or Senate, so they individually more voting power. They can substantially influence state politics, and it is magnified with majorities and committees.

Third, resources are pooled and parties coordinate, so starving them of influence, which is root of all their funding, is key to voting undemocratic parties out of office.

Don't believe what you read about politics online. It is made for modern, shallow consumption. Little races matter.

You can make a large difference by participating directly, too. You don't even have to make a scene about it in your platform. Just run, be boring, win, and talk with your votes.

throwaway5752··on Green card seekers must leave U.S. to apply, Trump administration says
I'd disagree on nuance. Xenophobia is anti-foreigner. This targets people of color. They target people of color who are US citizens, too.

It is gutter racism.

edit: I wish I could be surprised by the downvotes, but it's gutter racism and I'm proud to point this out! I would be never be quiet about a matter of ethics and conscience just because of startup accelerator social media popularity points. This directly influences many of our friends and colleagues in this field. It is vile, evil racism and directly topical for software startups.

edit 2: the list of immigrants and children of immigrants who have founded software companies that are the absolute backbone of US information infrastructure is embarrassing to write down. Anyone can search for the information, but it's harder to list companies not founded by immigrants or children of immigrants.

throwaway5752··on Meta blocks human rights accounts from reaching audiences in Arabia and the UAE
Every developer, and particularly every developer at Meta or who is thinking about working at or with Meta, should read https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Careless_People

It is useful, because instead of being surprised and reading this article, you can nod your head and go about your day because you already knew they were a company that was rotten to its core.

throwaway5752··on I found ultra-pure quantum crystals in an abandoned mine in the Atacama desert
Unless the PRC is a gringo now, you should not limit your concern to the US. The easiest propaganda technique - and trivially easy to accomplish with basic agents and existing social platforms - is divide and conquer.

Get people fighting about who is exploiting them, and they cannot unite against anyone exploiting them.

edit: no need to make the thread deeper. I agree with your reply, too. Two things can be correct at once, and usually are.

throwaway5752··on I found ultra-pure quantum crystals in an abandoned mine in the Atacama desert
Pinochet was a garden variety kleptocrat and villain, not an ideologue. Where Milei falls remains to be determined.

edit: also no reason to make this thread deeper, but you seem to be missing the idea that I am insulting Pinochet. He didn't do it for any reason other than power and money. That is worse. For whatever reason, you appear to think I have views I do not, and are assuming the worst of my replies. I will not reply further.

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