therobots927

Zitron will be proven right. That’s why I’m investing in beaten down SaaS stocks. It’s a reasonable hedge against the AI insanity.

Most IPOs don’t put up 5% of the float for sale. Usually it’s closer to 30-60%.

Just because something is physically possible doesn’t mean it’s more economically viable than terrestrial DCs.

If it’s not a Costco style structure what is it? A hundred thousand satellites each carrying a GPU rack? With giant cooling + solar arrays? And who’s going to maintain them if not robots? Astronauts? How are the satellites gonna talk to each other? Super long fiber optic cables? How exactly are they going to replicate a compact datacenter up there?

How much does each of these satellites cost? Both to manufacture and launch? How much is the maintenance cost?

I think the post IPO stock price performance speaks for itself. If you think it’s a good idea, you should invest, in fact I encourage it.

I’m just waiting for Elon to go to Mars. He’s always talking about it. Well. We’re waiting!

Huh. It’s almost like datacenters in space was the dumbest idea Elon has had in a long time. And that’s saying something. Even Wall Street couldn’t stomach that crap.

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It’s a mixed bag. You have insufferable mouth breathing morons who think AGI is here, and on the other hand you have rational - dare I say enlightened - individuals such as yourself.

They move uncomfortable subjects off the front page pretty quickly these days.

Can’t have the sheep getting too rowdy.

You really believe that?

You’re better off bootstrapping a startup anyway.

Once you take VC money you might as well work in big tech. You’ll still be beholden to morons. I have no interest in making more friends in Silicon Valley than I already have.

Let’s just say I’m delivering the message with the same level care and thoughtfulness that neoliberals exemplify when they defend genocide.

Have a good day. Or don’t. I really don’t care.

“people who have good jobs and high status want to _conserve_ it and not lose position - tech industry keeps threatening the status quo again and again”

I did answer your question. Are you saying the above quote is sarcasm?

You asked why I highlighted techs impact on the upper middle class. It’s because you singled them out as the primary opponents of tech multiple times.

I didn’t use any insults at all. Where are you seeing insults? I’m giving you valuable advice.

“Hating the tech industry is mainly seen amongst the first world countries and the rich educate, high status people amongst them.”

For the record I used to read noahpinion all the time. Then I developed critical thinking skills. It’s not a compliment that it was so easy for me to recognize you as a reader of his. You should learn how to think for yourself.

I still check his blog occasionally to see what the tech elite / alphabet boys want me to think. It’s become surprisingly easy to deduce their strategy.

I think when you couple extreme wealth inequality with extreme mis-allocation of capital (aka societal energy) with no buy in from the population, you (the Stanford educated elite - not you specifically) run the risk of getting your fucking head chopped off.

I beg to differ on point 3. The media has been extremely accommodating to the AI evangelists.

I think hate is the perfect word.

No no no… that’s unecessary. Because it won’t happen.

I see what you mean. If they are using it for customer acquisition, it could fall under sales and marketing.

What about retention though? Or upselling to higher tiers?

I would question where they decided to draw the line… because it’s a grey area.

I agree but I don’t want to concede that point. There’s no evidence that inference is profitable which makes the rest of the conversation a non-starter.

When dealing with sophists you have to pin them down on specific points and prevent them from shifting the conversation.

I don’t know how $5B+ in marketing for OpenAI is actually possible.

To put it in perspective, that’s about the combined campaign budget of the Trump and Harris campaigns.

I would expect to be seeing a lot more openAI ads than I’m seeing right now. And they would be everywhere.

Thanks. You saved me some time.

Big data was the progenitor of this mess

It also completely ignores what we know about evolution. Our brains are the result of billions of years of natural selection. The amount of “training data” that resulted in our neural structures is on a completely different scale than the training data used for today’s LLMs. And this isn’t even up for debate.

The assumption that this process can be “distilled” from written word is completely insane. I’m not sure how people trick themselves into thinking it’s even remotely possible.

Well it seems like he bought the “AGI is 2 years away” line. As did… pretty much everyone in Silicon Valley.

Oh great, good to know the shovel seller has the market cornered.

Now back to the conversation, do any of the gold miners have a moat? Or is this a race to the bottom?

This is surprising to me. Judging by what appears to be the common sentiment here on HN - which is that AI inference is already profitable, and OpenAI is fairly valued by private markets.

Given that Oracle and Microsoft are major counterparties of OpenAI, it seems odd that their stocks have been performing so poorly recently. Can anyone square this circle for me?

I couldn’t agree more. It seems AI is very good at middle of the distribution tasks where it has access to a lot of training data - enough to be highly reliable at that task.

Which means as a human your only added value is on the edge of the distribution. Which means you need to be learning and doing more complex, deep topics.

I’ve found that when I ask AI to do something for me that I know how to do myself - but would rather not spend the time doing - there is a not insignificant chance that the AI will return a subpar result, which I can usually tell rather quickly. Either by glancing at the code, or trying to compile it and getting an error.

This happens frequently enough that it creates a real disincentive for me to use AI for anything that I already know how to do - and use it exclusively for things I don’t know how to do.

It’s deeply frustrating to realize you just wasted 20 minutes posting error messages into Claude when you could’ve just locked in and written it yourself.

I’m working on AgentOrgy, a distributed platform that randomly pairs agents to “tag-team” a problem. Each team’s output is voted on by all agents. The winning results is returned at each stage of th loop.

Super excited to see how many tokens this will manage to burn per minute!!

Crickets