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taiwanboy

145 karma · joined May 13, 2019

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taiwanboy··on China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen
China is currently fighting 7 wars

1.) internal political war between xi jing ping of the old guards and the moderates. Check sinoinsider if you wish to know more.

2.) internal provincial wars with Tibet, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong.

3.) conflicts with immediate neighbors over the south sea and other illegitimate claims, including Vietnam, Taiwan, Indonesia, and Philippines.

4.) trade wars with South Korea, japan, US, and Europe. More and more factories are shutting down in China in favor of other countries

5.) debt war to derisk 400 percent Debt to GDP in consumer, corporate and government debts. This economic shutdown will at a minimum take 3% off of China’s proclaimed 6% gdp growth

6.) globalism vs populism as Americans realized they have lost 1.6 million jobs to China since 1990.

7.) health wars with the recent pig flu, Wuhan flu and now bird flu

One must realize that China is losing ALL of these wars currently. The finances, social fabrics, and public anger (check Chinese netizens fight over Wuhan) are stretched to the limit. It’s only a matter of time

taiwanboy··on China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen
At this point, small foreign business operating in China will go out of business due to supply chain shutdown and illiquidity. Mid sized businesses will have a huge one time cost/write off moving operations out of China. Large multinationals will move more parts of Chinese supplies to other countries.

China law blog can put it better than I can: https://www.chinalawblog.com/2020/02/whats-going-to-happen-w...

https://www.chinalawblog.com/2020/01/chinas-coronavirus-and-...

taiwanboy··on Public Transport in Wuhan Suspended Due to Coronavirus Concerns
10x underreporting -> 1 in 8 million

Fast mutation due to hundreds of million travelers + possiblity of being stuck in a city with a new order of unable to travel out for 30/60 days = no good reason to travel to china

taiwanboy··on First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.
Yup SARS did not coincide with hundred of millions of people stuffed in closed compact train cars and plane seats for hours at a time. This coronavirus might mutate faster than we could predict. Nobody should be traveling to China right now
taiwanboy··on First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.
Wuhan is in the middle of China, every transit passes through it. It’s like the Chicago of China. There is no way in hell the government is going to able to lock it down.
taiwanboy··on First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.
The Chinese government has had difficulties handling the situation. I think we might need WHO to jump in soon.

(Chinese New Years is in 3 days and few hundred million people will travel in congested trains and flights. Also people in China usually don’t cover their mouths when they cough)

Coronavirus: Chinese hospitals not testing patients, say relatives https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/21/coronavirus-ch...

Wuhan virus kills fourth patient, infects hospital staff amid fear of ‘super-spreader’ https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3046908/new-...

man in Wuhan infected with coronavirus went to hospital but got sent away, took a flight to Dalian & became Patient Zero in Dalian https://www.reddit.com/r/China/comments/erszdd/disease_contr...

taiwanboy··on Low unemployment isn’t worth much if the jobs barely pay
Well put. Also most of the commenters here don’t realize that people who have been unemployed for a while can’t just get to a regular job without a low wage job in between that helps to pay for some of the costs of going to school.

Also, wages in the low wage jobs ARE GOING UP, as mentioned throughout the comments

taiwanboy··on [dead]
As a fellow taiwanese, I am proud he has gotten his message out so much already as a presidential candidate.

On a related note, congratulation to president tsai being re-elected yesterday! Thank god the evil Chinese communist party was not able to infiltrate and plant their own candidate

Taiwan is a shining example of democracy in Asia, hopefully inspiring people in Singapore, China, and others

taiwanboy··on An update on YC China
It’s most likely due to the changing climate for companies (especially American and Canadian) operating in China. Check out this article: “how to survive an increasing difficult China”

https://www.chinalawblog.com/2019/11/how-to-survive-an-incre...

Btw if you have a smb or an European company that doesn’t think it applies to you, you are signing your company’s death sentence

taiwanboy··on It’s the End of California as We Know It
I just mentioned in another thread that The most fundamental issue US needs to solve for inequality in the US is....whether US can continue to allow corporations to reap the benefits of a strong democracy coupled with the most vibrant economy, while at the same time, bankrupt the communities by continuing to ship jobs overseas and avoid paying any sort of taxes back to the communities where they make a profit.

There are only two parties in the US right now. And one is for globalization. And the other is for stronger US labor unions.

taiwanboy··on The Vexed Meaning of Equality in Gilded Age America
I would propose The most fundamental issue US needs to solve for inequality in the US is....whether US can continue to allow corporations to reap the benefits of a strong democracy coupled with the most vibrant economy, while at the same time, bankrupt the communities by continuing to ship jobs overseas and avoid paying any sort of taxes back to the communities where they make a profit.

There are only two parties in the US right now. And one is for globalization. And the other is for stronger US labor unions, as mentioned in the article.

taiwanboy··on Hold That Recession: U.S. Indicators Are Trouncing Forecasts
US has the strongest economy in the world and it’s obvious that it is going to grow since its main competitors (Europe, China, Japan) have declined. (Think market share increase and capital increase, in terms of a company)

The main two problems that faced US economy in the last 60 years - energy and jobs, have been solved by US. For energy, US is now the largest energy producer in the world. For jobs, US has climbed out of the hole of threats from globalization, increased internal labor force and automation, by using tariffs, deportations, border walls, upgraded workforce via increased education, and splitting threat from its main outsourced competitor China.

taiwanboy··on Hold That Recession: U.S. Indicators Are Trouncing Forecasts
Please do show your evidence. From what I have read, it’s the opposite.

white-collar workers have seen their wages grow by nearly 7.5% https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2019/08/14/blue-colla....

Workers at the lower end of the pay scale finally are getting the most benefit from rising wages https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/13/workers-at-lower-end-of-pay-...

taiwanboy··on Hacker News is partially blocked in China now
This is an ominous development for Hong Kong citizens. There is talk of martial law (and use of physical violence by the Chinese army) by this weekend or beyond in Hong Kong. Without the timely reporting from Hong Kong citizens to hacker news or other websites, we won’t be able to gauge the real magnitude of destruction and oppression to our democratic Hong Kong cousins (vpn will surely be turned off by then). And it might be tiananmen 2.0 all over again.

Our wish is with you, tiny island democratic people. The free world is on your side. I don’t think this time we as a free world will tolerate another tiananmen; China would face fury and economic sanctions like never before.

taiwanboy··on As U.S. 'superstar' cities thrive, weaker ones get left behind
There are a few dynamics at play here

1.) even with some declining cities, US cities are still some of the most powerful in the world. According to https://howmuch.net/articles/the-economic-size-of-metro-area... (2017) Bay Area economy is as large as the entire country of Nigeria, NY area is as largest as Canada, LA is as big as turkey! Even Portland is as big as Qatar! And with the global slowdown in 2018 and 2019, while US is the sole bright spot, the dominance will only be magnified.

2.) demographics is now shifting to where gen z is the biggest generation now. In 5-10 years they will be establishing families and moving to less crowded suburbs and smaller cities. Which means the mega cities will lose some growth and the secondary cities will gain.

taiwanboy··on The Rise and Fall of French Cuisine
I could be starting a food war here but I dare declare that California has the best cuisines in the world because

1.) for many of the ethnicities, california usually has the largest immigrant communities, outside of the native country. Therefore the dishes can be much more authentic and cater to the native crowds. As opposed to a Greek restaurant in Tokyo, or a Thai restaurant in Paris. When I lived in Japan I often missed my Vietnamese pho. And when i lives in Paris I often craved for my Mexican burrito.

2.) it doesn’t have any food history, and therefore no codified rules on how and what cuisines should be ( as opposed to French cuisine, like mentioned in the article ). Therefore we have Californian sushi, Korean tacos, Japanese pastas, Korean hot dogs, and so on. Fusion and innovation is alive and well

3.) fifth largest economy in the world that helps to support diverse and vibrant restaurants, farms and foodies

4.) real focus on vegan cuisines. If you were a vegan you would be blessed to live in la or sf. You would be able to not just be able to get vegan but also Vietnamese vegan, Thai vegan, American vegan or Japanese vegan cuisines. If you tried backpacking through Asia or Europe as a vegan you would know how hard that is.

Michelin guide recently released a California guide and California is now on the map as a foodie destination. Even though it only has 90 Michelin restaurants as opposed to Japan’s 230, I have way more fun dining in la or sf than Tokyo due to the diverse ness and casualness of the cuisines. (But Tokyo will always have a place in my heart on how perfectly executed a single ingredient/dish could be)

taiwanboy··on Trump signals scrutiny of Google's ties with China after Thiel comments
Fair enough
taiwanboy··on Trump signals scrutiny of Google's ties with China after Thiel comments
According to the government, yes.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/06/more-restrictive-us-...

taiwanboy··on Trump signals scrutiny of Google's ties with China after Thiel comments
If you believe that the Chinese government will never use the AI talents/research incubated by google for military usages, then you also must believe when Beijing proclaimed they would never weaponize South China Sea, and has never stolen US technologies.
taiwanboy··on Trump signals scrutiny of Google's ties with China after Thiel comments
And the article actually glanced at but didn’t elaborate on

- Google decided to open a new AI research center in China, expanding its existing presence there. This in the face of expanding AI assisted surveillance in xinjiang and its 10 million population.

- Google decided not to renew its contract for project maven, a way to analyze drone footage using AI, for the US DoD

taiwanboy··on The U.S. Labor Market Isn’t All That Healthy
It is true. US inequality rose around 1980. almost specifically around the time of japan (and Asia) and Europe’s rise from ashes and US losing jobs to globalization. They were a mere fraction of their former self before then. Japan’s gdp spikes around 1985. Same with Germany.
taiwanboy··on The U.S. Labor Market Isn’t All That Healthy
Post war boom had the European and Japanese economy offline, and Chinese economy nonexistent. So no globalization threat. It is very unrealistic to compare to it or expect that condition again (unless we are talking about 100% tariffs coming back)
taiwanboy··on The U.S. Labor Market Isn’t All That Healthy
MBAs are appreciated everywhere that requires pricing, managing, product market fit, positioning, finance, analytics skillset. Basically everywhere that wants to make money, including Bay Area.
taiwanboy··on The U.S. Labor Market Isn’t All That Healthy
In the ideal world, both posts would be on the front page. No echo chamber. Being able to hold opposing thoughts in ones head. Etc etc
taiwanboy··on The U.S. Labor Market Isn’t All That Healthy
I think it’s quite telling about the bias of hacker news users that this posting is alive and well on top of the first page, whereas a posting about US having the longest economic expansion in history, that was on the front page a few hours ago, was flagged and now gone within minutes of reaching top 10
taiwanboy··on 'Today, Hong Kong; Tomorrow, Taiwan:' Resistance to China Spreads
Careful there with the personal attack.

I put purported there for a reason. Han promised riches for citizens of kaoshung, went to visit China right after the election, and yet haven’t done a single thing yet to improve the city, before running for president.

taiwanboy··on 'Today, Hong Kong; Tomorrow, Taiwan:' Resistance to China Spreads
Tech/media related issue here is that

1.) There are many media companies in Taiwan that have taken subsidies/investments from the Chinese government. For example, the richest Taiwanese, Tsai eng-meng, currently lives in Shanghai, and owns many tv stations and newspapers in Taiwan. Many of these tv stations are watched by the older generations, and a lot of the channels are politics focused. Thus these channels usually have a pro-China angle on them: how well China is doing economically, and ignores any sort of xinjiang/Hong Kong/trade war problems/economic slowdowns/human rights issues China has. I shuddered when an older relative told me that the tv show had told him that concentration camps for Uighurs are ok because it keeps the peace.

And don’t think this is restricted to Taiwan. China has spread its media influence to other democratic countries in the world as well.

2.) hacking politicians. The pro-China presidential candidate, Han-Kuo-yu, was a literal unknown 6 months before the election for city of kaoshung. However, thanks to a (purported) digital influence campaign by Chinese hackers, he won the election. Then he declared to run for president, without having accomplished much of anything for the city. This sort of thing could also happen to US, in that China could interfere in the 2020 election.

taiwanboy··on Is Firefox better than Chrome? It comes down to privacy
Safari needs a killer feature to woo mainstream users from chrome. Privacy isn’t going to cut it
taiwanboy··on About 2M People Rally in Hong Kong Weekend Protests
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3721753

After China tariffs, Trump should recognize Taiwan, the Pentagon likely agrees

taiwanboy··on About 2M People Rally in Hong Kong Weekend Protests
You know who isn’t naive? CCP. Any slight acts of aggression against a democratic Taiwan will mean economic sanctions against China from US and its allies (EU, Japan, etc). China’s economy will go back to the stone ages. Those US, British, French warships patrolling the Taiwan straits aren’t just for fun neither
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