Hacker News Reader

taiwanboyon China clamping down on coronavirus research, deleted pages suggest

China didn’t let taiwanese citizens leave Wuhan then. What’s the excuse there?

taiwanboyon The Global Dollar Short Squeeze

You have to take a macro view however.

China was in recession/depression before shutting down their entire economy for almost 2 months and have barely recovered. They suffered a supply shock. And now because the entire worlds demand has declined, China is now suffering from demand shock. And foreign manufacturers are now FLEEING which adds to massive loss of permanent jobs. That’s on top of a debt overload and they don’t control the worlds main currency

Japan and Germany were close to recession before the virus hit. Plus they are mainly exporters. Plus automobile is their big export...which now the demand has collapsed around the world.

US comparatively is safer.

taiwanboyon How the World’s Richest Country Ran Out of Face Masks

Nope that’s not it. Do you see China running out of masks right now? No of course not. They have so much they are “donating” to other countries. They have the world’s capability to make masks.

taiwanboyon How the World’s Richest Country Ran Out of Face Masks

Since we are starting off with a partisan attack.

The reason we don’t have enough face masks is because we have moved all our medical supply chain to China. The reason we were able to do that is because during the Clinton administration we allowed US businesses to destroy US manufacturing capability by granting permanent normal trade relation with China.

I like how the liberal/Democrats always ignore China/offshoring during their discussion of economic crisis. (Probably because they benefited from the slave labors in China more)

But Russia is scarier!

taiwanboyon Nobel laureate predicts a quicker coronavirus recovery

You are being a bit naive about journalism in an authoritarian country that has control over digital media coming out of the country. The fact that this picture made it out (suggesting that image recognition/AI censor rules are still naive in China) is proof enough that there are voices desperately trying to tell the outside world - don’t trust their government!!

taiwanboyon Nobel laureate predicts a quicker coronavirus recovery

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN21A014

China sees drop in new coronavirus cases; all new cases imported, March 22

https://www.reddit.com/r/China/comments/fmz3d6/while_china_c...

Translated: On March 20th, A local community management issued a notice, stating that one of the unit has 2 patient found, the unit will be sealed and no one is allowed to enter or exit.

It essentaily means that they are starving to death in the room.

Don’t trust the Chinese government’s propaganda

taiwanboyon Federal Reserve slashes interest rates to zero

I said China’s economy collapsed 80-90% in the LAST month

taiwanboyon Federal Reserve slashes interest rates to zero

Closing down schools, banning large gatherings, setting up drive thru testing, ramping up test kits next week, letting employees to work from home, closing borders to China and Europe (25k cases), etc

taiwanboyon Federal Reserve slashes interest rates to zero

With interest rate at near 0 percent and inflation at 2.3%, people will come back to stocks sooner rather than later

taiwanboyon Federal Reserve slashes interest rates to zero

Game over is an exaggeration. There’s 3.4 trillion sideline cash. China’s economy collapsed 80-90% in the last month and will take months to recover, on top of exploding debts. Japan and Germany was in recession before coronavirus hit.

On the other hand, US was growing a steady 2% and had record low unemployment before this. If US can flatten the curve, with only ~3000 cases thus far, US will recover quickly and come out way ahead. And the sideline cash will rush into US

taiwanboyon Federal Reserve slashes interest rates to zero

The government can simply ban shorts, much like 2008, and what other European stock markets have done already. That would kill the shorts dead in its tracks. Then the stock market would stabilize, in time for businesses to stabilize and hopefully by summer everything will be recovery focused.

taiwanboyon Alphabet, Walmart join U.S. effort to speed up coronavirus testing

This is a global health crisis that happens to impact millions of workers who are now worried they might contract coronavirus or they might lose their jobs if they were in some of the more impacted industries.

To be shorting and attacking the economy and businesses during this time (all businesses are interconnected, especially ones that provide food/energy/medical supplies) and be so distrustful of efforts to help ramp up testing and saving lifes, it’s just wrong.

I happen to know many people who works in cruise industries and hospitality. These folks are worried sick right now. Those people are who you are shorting

taiwanboyon Jack Ma to send 500K coronavirus test kits, 1M face masks to US

Disingenuous comparison. Ministers of foreign affairs in China is similar to Secretary of State in US. A senator is nowhere near equivalent.

taiwanboyon Jack Ma to send 500K coronavirus test kits, 1M face masks to US

The CIA rumour is no less raised by the CHINESE FOREIGN MINISTRY spokesman https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-official-says-us-arm...

taiwanboyon Jack Ma to send 500K coronavirus test kits, 1M face masks to US

US ability to make and distribute medicine and medical supplies is falling apart and it’s a direct result of consolidation of supply chain and factories that make it. 4 power buyers buys control over 90% of generic drug for US. And probably similar percent for medical equipments.

Good news is that now all eyes are on the medical supply chains, and introduction of the medical supply drug act bill, we should see some supply chain move back to US.

Especially since Chinese government has threatened to withhold drug supplies to US https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politic... and has started a disinformation campaign suggesting US inserted coronavirus in Wuhan, brought up by the Chinese foreign ministry spokesman https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-official-says-us-arm...

taiwanboyon Fed to inject $1.5T to prevent ‘unusual disruptions’ in markets

These days companies are VERY tied to quarterly EPS guidance and stock prices. Layoffs and adjustments closely follows that as well.

taiwanboyon Fed to inject $1.5T to prevent ‘unusual disruptions’ in markets

Folks. Companies listed on the stock market hire average folks who need the money to provide for their spouses and kids. Companies that provide staples to you like food and gas and transportation and medical supplies.

These are the companies you are actively shorting. Think about that. This isn’t the same as 2008.

taiwanboyon Fed to inject $1.5T to prevent ‘unusual disruptions’ in markets

This is to help an otherwise very healthy US economy (low unemployment rate, solid gdp growth, income increases) from being taken down by an one time external, expiring event and panic that flows from it.

What is the point not supporting crucial companies in the stock market? Are you really better off if target or chevron or Hilton goes under? And tons of people have no jobs and there no access to staples?

taiwanboyon U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

I beg to differ. US was the first major country to ban travel from China. Other countries only followed suit after. South Korea, Japan, France, Germany and Italy never did, and see where they are now.

taiwanboyon U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

Excluding China (which they wisely banned early) and South Korea (one city daegu is the center and majority of infection) there is only japan with 639 cases. Europe has close to 20,000 cases.

But if an Asian country’s cases quickly spikes, pretty sure Asia will be shut down in travel to US

taiwanboyon U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

US is closer in blood to Europe and it shut down travel form Europe. Asia would be an easy/quick call for this administration.

taiwanboyon Coronavirus has disrupted supply chains for nearly 75% of U.S. companies

Mexico wages are already lower than wages in China. In fact, chinalawblog.com talks a lot about companies shifting to Mexico due to USMCA and short turnaround for supply chain.

https://www.chinalawblog.com/2020/03/international-manufactu...

taiwanboyon Second U.S. coronavirus case of unknown origin confirmed in Santa Clara County

South Korea has tested 66k 2 days ago. China has no such capacity to test even that much, let along 800 million in quanrantine, and people have been welded in their own homes with no escape. The dead bodies have been going straight to the furnace in Wuhan. Which government’s number would you rather trust?

taiwanboyon Second U.S. coronavirus case of unknown origin confirmed in Santa Clara County

Countries that are heavily affected right now primarily have open borders with China (still!!?) - japan, South Korea, Italy, Iran, with tons of Chinese workers going back and forth

taiwanboyon WHO: COVID-19 in 29 countries last Monday, now 56

I don’t know if it’s going to pop up everywhere. It’s more hitting the counties that have open borders with China still.

taiwanboyon WHO: COVID-19 in 29 countries last Monday, now 56

I am not sure they have slowed down the virus

- coronavirus have been shown to reappear in recovered patients in China (prob due to the unsanitary conditions in cities)

- they have welded people in their homes. How would they have tested these folks?

- 800 million people are under quarantine. Again, how do they test all these people? Plus it’s been shown that family members locked in a tight space transmit the disease to each other. And the entire family dies off.

taiwanboyon World Economy Shudders as Coronavirus Threatens Global Supply Chains

Every country needs to take a hard look at the supply chain of critical goods such as medical supplies or chemicals and figure out how to reshore these factories. Even if the Chinese migrant workers comes back to the factory (estimated only around 20-30% did), most of the small businesses might be gone by then.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Industry-in-focus/Virus-hit... 35% of 1,506 Chinese SMEs surveyed in early February expect to run out of cash within 1 month, 85% within 3 months. Chinese small business which account for 99.8% of registered companies in China and employ 79.4% of workers, according to the latest official statistics. They contribute more than 60% of gross domestic product and, for the government, more than 50% of tax revenue.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/chinese-workers-refuse-g... Chinese workers refuse to go back to work

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/jpmorgan-now-expects-chi... JPMorgan Now Expects China Q1 GDP To Drop To 1%, Crash To -4% If Coronavirus Is Not Contained

taiwanboyon Some of the world's biggest economies are on the brink of recession

Trade deficit - going way down wrt China. Also, dollar is strong, and we turn commodities from other countries into more valuable goods that we export.

Record fiscal deficit/gov debt - hard to judge without also looking at gdp + asset growth, which US is doing great in (stock, real estate). Also. US is safe haven for investors right now

Corp debt - record low interest rate.

taiwanboyon Some of the world's biggest economies are on the brink of recession

Interesting that China is just a blurb in the article.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Industry-in-focus/Virus-hit...

65% of 1,506 Chinese SMEs surveyed in early February expect to run out of cash within 1 month, 85% within 3 months.

Chinese small business which account for 99.8% of registered companies in China and employ 79.4% of workers, according to the latest official statistics. They contribute more than 60% of gross domestic product and, for the government, more than 50% of tax revenue.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/jpmorgan-now-expects-chi...

JPMorgan Now Expects China Q1 GDP To Drop To 1%, Crash To -4% If Coronavirus Is Not Contained