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steve8918

3,344 karma · joined August 2, 2011

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steve8918··on Why Zynga Failed
Try the math with GOOG instead of ZNGA, and you'll find that shorting the stock outright is a lot more cost efficient than buying puts.

The only way you make money with puts on stocks like GOOG or AAPL with huge premium is if you hit a home run, ie. a massive move on the part of the stock. Sure, theoretically there is "unbounded" risk, but in reality, that's impossible, unless you're a fool. Overnight gap ups and gap downs mayb occur, and a good trader will account for this.

steve8918··on Why Zynga Failed
I heard people would take new equipment and do things like sell them.
steve8918··on Why Zynga Failed
Not much of a story to tell, I bought ZNGA shares, and am unhappily suffering LOL.

I figured they are getting close to book value, and they couldn't drop much further (always the worst reason to buy a stock). And I thought that given they have real revenues, that someone might be willing to step in and buy them for their customers. Maybe YHOO or AOL, or even FB. Now, with their revenues dropping, it could be that NO ONE wants to buy them for fear of overpaying (like they did with OMGPOP), so I could be up the creek on this one.

steve8918··on Why Zynga Failed
I guess this is a pretty good example of the difference between a business built based on "innovation" vs "extraction". With innovation, you consistently make new and exciting products and your customers are really happy. With an extraction-based model, you corner out the market, and then you impose access fees, taxes, etc on the users.

Instead of going with innovation, Zynga decided to go with extraction, and they are now paying a heavy price. Farmville, Cityville, etc, are all essentially just the same game. They add clicks and beeps to get middle-aged housewives to pay $5/month for virtual items and I guess it's simply not sustainable.

As a side note, I've been to Zynga's headquarters in SF. The offices are beautiful, and spacious. My friend pointed out a human-sized statue of the Zynga's dog that was repainted for something like $10-20k because apparently the CEO didn't like the color. You can walk around and see a lot of dot-com waste everywhere. We went to one of the snack areas, and there were opened bags of organic chips just laying around. Apparently, they have an office-supply vending machine filled with $100 wireless keyboards, mice, etc, that people just take whenever they want.

As an (unhappy) investor, it certainly looks like there is a lot of room to cut the fat at that company, so maybe they can slash their costs relative to their revenues and turn it back into a viable business.

steve8918··on 375 Million pageviews for $15 a month
This is a more in-depth article with almost the exact same information that was previously on HN a few months ago.

http://www.ewanleith.com/blog/900/10-million-hits-a-day-with...

steve8918··on Apple Has a New Cook
I hate how everyone has decidedly become a Steve Jobs expert, so I won't even begin to make a comment or guess on what Jobs would or would not have done.

But it's suffice to say that Tim Cook's apology really isn't something that's so mindblowing. The debacle over Apple Maps is so huge that Cook had no choice but to apologize. People around the world are not only outraged by how inferior Apple Maps is, but they are now ridiculing it, to the point where many believe it could actually impact sales of the iPhone 5, and drastically slow down migration to iOS 6. Someone had to do something to quell the outrage, and for something of this magnitude, that someone had to be the CEO.

It's pretty coincidental that another huge debacle, the NFL replacement ref situation, both came to a head in the same week. Roger Goodell, also had to issue an apology to fans as well, for letting the situation get so out of control that it affected the quality and reputation of the NFL. It's the exact same playbook (pun intended) as Tim Cook's.

steve8918··on A Letter from Tim Cook on Maps
I didn't make a comment on previous behavior of Apple, or whether or not Apple has a monopoly. I was saying that Google could force Apple's hand in terms of how they behave in approving or rejecting apps, if Apple acts in an anti-competitive way with respect to a Google Maps app. If Apple doesn't play it right, it could draw the ire of the DoJ or FTC, which they definitely do not want.

If they don't allow a Google Maps app on the iPhone App Store, or if they drag their heels in approving the app, especially given all the outrage from the customers, I believe this is clearly anti-competitive behavior.

Once Google has one available, if Apple doesn't readily approve it, I think a very, very strong case could be made that they are holding back Google's app in order to help their App gain traction. Since only Apple has the power to approve or reject apps from the App Store, if that isn't the definition of anti-competitive, I don't know what is.

steve8918··on A Letter from Tim Cook on Maps
In order to add an mp3 onto my iPhone I need to: start up iTunes and wait for it to load; plug in my iPhone to my iMac; find the song and drag and drop it into iTunes; click on Sync, and then wait for Sync to finish everything. If I haven't synced my iPhone in a while, then it could take 10+ minutes, since it has to backup, copy new Applications, etc.

What it should be is: plug my iPhone into my Mac; my iPhone should show up in Finder or on the Desktop; Find my mp3 and drag and drop it onto my iPhone icon; unplug my iPhone. I have no idea why I need to interact with iTunes at all.

steve8918··on A Letter from Tim Cook on Maps
Actually, I now agree with this. Like I said below, they might be delaying it to hurt iPhone 5 sales, as you mentioned. This probably makes more sense from a competitive standpoint, and then using the time to build an even better app (with 3D according to the article) and then releasing it in January after the damage has been done. I guess there's only a small chance Apple will be able to make the Maps significantly better in 3 months.
steve8918··on A Letter from Tim Cook on Maps
They've won the current PR battle, but if they build a Google Maps for iOS, they will win the next PR battle.

If Apple is reluctant to approve a Google Maps app, and Google claims that they have the app ready and waiting but Apple won't approve it, customers will be pissed. This would put even more pressure on Apple.

Google could absolutely prove anti-competitiveness of the App store, by simply releasing the app that existed on iOS5. If it's the exact same app, with no new features, Google could ask the question why it was good enough for iOS5, but not iOS6. If Apple is restricting its availability simply because Apple has their own maps app, it could definitely be shown as being anti-competitive, and if the DOJ or FTC started to investigate this, Apple would be in heaps of trouble. Apple would be stupid to risk getting a decision forced down their throats by the government, a la Microsoft.

The one thing that Google may be doing is waiting until after Thanksgiving or Christmas in order to release their new App. They might be letting the bad press over Maps could hurt sales of iPhone 5, and then releasing an app after January.

steve8918··on A Letter from Tim Cook on Maps
Maybe from a hardware point of view, but not from a software point of view. Case in point, iTunes is one of the worst pieces of software I've ever had to use. They could have made it so much easier to add music, etc, but it is probably the worst piece of software that I'm FORCED to use.
steve8918··on A Letter from Tim Cook on Maps
From a purely competitive standpoint, this is why Google should be releasing their Google Maps app immediately, and if Apple drags their feet, they should launch a lawsuit to force them to do so.

First off, it would probably be a really good PR move for Google.

Second, if Apple dragged their feet in terms of approval and Google sued them, it might force some changed in terms of how anti-competitively the App store behaves. I could totally see the Justice Dept or FTC stepping in the way they did with Microsoft.

Lastly, if Google added their maps app, it would immediately supplant the Apple app, and a lot less people would use Apple Maps. This would give Apple less data to make their maps better, and keep them at a competitive disadvantage for years.

steve8918··on Does everyone hate MongoDB?
Could you elaborate on the things that MongoDB brings to the table versus a database like MySQL? If you assume that the entire dataset fits in memory for both MongoDB and MySQL, as well as SSD backing for both, what particular advantages does MongoDB have for you in production?
steve8918··on Appcelerator: extortion is just part of the job
I strongly suggest you read up on what constitutes libel/defamation. Just by saying something is your opinion does not protect you, as least in the US.

https://www.eff.org/issues/bloggers/legal/liability/defamati...

They didn't apologize for extortion. They apologized for accidentally charging a developer. That is not extortion. Extortion is a very serious criminal offense. Unless you have proof that they are actually engaging in extortion, and that they are engaging in criminal activities, you are making yourself vulnerable to a lawsuit.

steve8918··on Appcelerator: extortion is just part of the job
Saying that Appcelerator is extorting their users I'm pretty sure enters into libel territory. Extortion is a crime, and saying that Appcelerator committed a crime is setting you up for a lawsuit.

It could very well have been an accident on the part of the sales person, and saying that the CEO is deceiving people because he doesn't use the same words that you would have used is simply wrong.

If I were you, I would take down the post, or at least change the wording so that you're not saying they are extorting their customers.

steve8918··on Ask HN: How to deal with losing interest in your passion?
No, I think you mean High Frequency Trading, which is a specialized form of algorithmic trading. Algorithmic trading just means you use a computer to execute trades based on algorithms that you define.

It can be as easy as "buy at market open, sell at market close". Or it could be much more complicated, for example, the stuff that quants do. I'm much closer to the former than the latter. You can definitely pay for things like a real-time data feed (less than $100/month) and trade real time, or you can choose to expand your time frame and do swing-trades with daily data which you could probably get from Yahoo.

And believe me, it's very, very hard, to the point where I almost don't think it's possible. But I still love it.

steve8918··on Ask HN: How to deal with losing interest in your passion?
Yes, trading using algorithms to try to make money. Emphasis on the word "try".

I love it, regardless of my level of success in it. My friend is a day trader, and he gave me one of his setups for trading. I didn't believe him, so I downloaded the data, wrote the code to simulate it across a few years, and then all of a sudden, this became a computer problem that I could try to solve through programming. I've been hooked ever since. There are a lot of much smarter people doing a lot more successful ventures than me, but for a hobby, I really do love it, and it completely reinvigorated my interests in programming.

steve8918··on Ask HN: How to deal with losing interest in your passion?
After graduating from college, I completely immersed myself in computers, programming, networking, system administration, etc. I taught myself how to program, got a job programming, learned just about everything I needed to learn. I would work, and then when I came home, I would sit in front of the computer learning. It got to the point where if I didn't spend time learning, I would feel guilty.

This helped me immensely, because I accelerated in my career and knowledge really quickly. But then, after about 10 years, I had gained about 50 lbs, and suffered through some personal issues. I was completely and utterly burnt out. I stopped being curious about technology, and couldn't bring myself to even turn on a computer after work, except to play games or online poker. This period lasted for about 5 years.

What rekindled everything for me was that I found something new to be passionate about, namely algorithmic trading. The entire topic absolutely fascinated me and continues to fascinate me, and that's where I regained my passion. I've been spending a lot of time on this topic over the last few years.

My advice to you is just take a break. You're probably burnt out. Give it some time, and you'll probably go back to doing it, or you'll find something new to be passionate about.

steve8918··on Thank you Apple
Thanks guys, I'm relieved to hear both of you have done it!
steve8918··on Thank you Apple
Can someone advise me on the point in the article about how Time Machine is insufficient to backup one's entire computer?

My wife's Macbook Air uses Time Machine to backup, and I haven't done any other sort of backup with it. If her hard drive crashes, will she lose information, or is Time Machine reliable enough to restore her entire laptop? I just assumed it was good enough. If this isn't true, and if she loses any information, it's not Tim Cook who will need to deal with her wrath...

steve8918··on Has Apple Peaked?
I'm neither an Apple fanboy nor a hater. I have an iPhone5, but I use a Windows 7 desktop PC. (I am, however, an Apple Maps hater after using it for a few days.)

The annoying thing about articles like this is that it's basically the professional journalist's version of trolling... making an outrageous statement in order to garner attention/clicks. He can come in and shit all over Apple, and suffer no consequences if he's wrong.

I would be infinitely more interested in his opinion if he actually shorted the stock and put his money where his mouth is, journalistic rules against trading aside.

steve8918··on Facebook Wants You To Snitch On Friends Not Using Their Real Name
The best way people, especially kids, have to protect their future selves from things they write or post today, is by assuming a fake identity.

Kids are quickly learning that everything on the Internet is forever. Take the option of hiding their identity away from them, and I think they will move to a service that will allow this.

steve8918··on Show HN: WordCount.is
LOL it looks like we have a lot of pre-typewriter peeps in the house :)

I'm old school, so when I learned to type, I learned it on an actual typewriter. When we had to fix mistakes, we needed to use good old fashioned liquid paper.

So doing things like calculating your typing speed in words per minute was done where 5 characters was considered a "word". So when I was in school, when the teacher or prof said to hand in a 2000 word essay, it would be based on where a word was considered 5 or 6 characters, regardless of how many actual words there were.

http://www.speedtypingonline.com/typing-equations

Interestingly, I just checked on MS Word, and they consider a word to be anything with a space inbetween, so I guess the definition has changed since the Mesozoic era!

steve8918··on Show HN: WordCount.is
For a first venture into programming, this was nicely done!

One thing, I thought the definition of a "word" is something like 6 characters, so a really long word could be considered 2+ "words". It seems like your definition of a word is a set of strings separated by a space. Is this intentional?

steve8918··on Show HN: 5000 best movies
How did you get this data? Did you screenscrape IMDB and Rotten Tomatoes?

If so, is there a legal issue with reusing this data? I actually don't know what the answer is, I'm curious if there is or not.

steve8918··on The Difficulties of Self Publicising
It seems that someone can create a new sockpuppet account, and everyone in the ring can vote up the sockpuppet. This would probably be a lot harder to detect.

Maybe if there was a 24hr waiting period before a new account can submit articles or comment, it might curtail this, somewhat.

steve8918··on iOS6 breaks long polling
I submitted that post, so I have some vested interest in this. I came across this bug because I was converting one of my web apps to use the new iOS 6 feature of being able to upload photos from your Camera Roll to a web site.

However, when you upload a picture, apparently, they are all called image.jpg. Since the image name never changed, every time I uploaded a new pic, the first pic was being returned. I couldn't understand why, and as usual, stackoverflow had a good answer for me. I needed to add a timestamp option to my URL in order to work around this behavior.

steve8918··on Kickstarter is Not a Store
This is a good idea, kudos to them for making this move to help alleviate a lot confusion on behalf of funders.

I think what they need to do is have milestones for their project that can get vetted by Kickstarter. For each milestone they hit, more funds get released to them. This will allow funders to get out if they keep missing their milestones, and the project looks like it's going downhill.

steve8918··on If I Were Google, I Wouldn’t Release A Native iOS 6 Maps App For Six Months
I would pay a lot of money for a native Google Maps app. It's the single most used feature for me on my phone.

The only feature I want is the ability to download maps to the phone. Going to another country and not having maps is debilitating. I spent $300 by not realizing how much data I would download, and download a map while in the middle of one of the Great Lakes in Canada. Being able to download maps while at a wifi connection for the city that I'm in is crucial.

steve8918··on Patent Trolls: Make Them Pay
What's to stop patent trolls from forming a corporation with no assets, suing people, and then declaring bankruptcy if they lose their case? They could forfeit their patents, but it would be worthless anyway if they lost the case.
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