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spenrose

2,990 karma · joined November 21, 2008

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spenrose··on Highway EV charging will soon need a ton of power
We're building a charging network for the largest highway vehicles, complete with dedicated power: https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2022/01/31/daimler-nextera-and-b...

Our team is building the associated software. If you'd like to help solve this problem, reach out: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33823403

spenrose··on EmacsConf 2022
As with the high vote totals for Firefox-related links, the presence of a link on an ancient* text editor at #1 on HN (as I write) reveals that HN voters are a bit ... old school. These tools' relative importance has declined over the last 15 years.

* (I am a graybeard who used Emacs daily for a long time)

spenrose··on The Origins of Python
Ruby and Go both adopted extensively from Python, but both rejected the process described in OP of designing a language by iterative experimentation to determine how coders would experience design choices. Instead, each relied on the judgment of a handful of experienced insiders. "*I* know which parts of Python are good and which suck; no need to run my ideas by a few dozen coders before committing to them."

Perhaps not coincidentally, neither has displaced Python. Go obviously had powerful backing from Google. I believe Ruby had enormous tailwinds from the need of the Java community c. 2005 to find an interpreted language, but not one with as mature a community as Python's was at the time. Ruby was at the sweet spot of "usable, but with plenty of niches left for alpha geeks looking to write blog posts."

Finally, I hypothesize the Amber-Brown-batteries-included and walrus-operator kerfuffles demonstrate the limits of managing infrastructure such as Python with the RFC / Usenet model.

spenrose··on Historians of science have too many big pictures, not too few (2016)
Nowhere on this site does the string "wootton" appear. Since David Wootton published a landmark history in 2015 ... the site needs updating.

https://www.inventionofscience.com

spenrose··on Software engineering research questions
OP's site ttps://neverworkintheory.org is dedicated to reviewing the abundant recent research in software engineering.
spenrose··on Over half of people infected with omicron variant didn't know it, study finds
Source paper: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle...

"Question What proportion of individuals who recently contracted the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant were aware of their infectious status?

Findings In this cohort study of 210 adults with evidence of seroconversion during a regional Omicron variant surge, 56% reported being unaware of any recent Omicron variant infection.

Meaning Findings of this study suggest that low rates of Omicron variant infection awareness may be a key contributor to rapid transmission of the virus within communities."

spenrose··on The Antrim County 2020 Election Incident: An Independent Forensic Investigation
"In November 2020, Antrim County, Michigan published unofficial election results that misstated totals in the presidential race and other contests by up to several thousand votes. Antrim subsequently issued a series of corrections, and the certified presidential results were confirmed by a hand count. Nevertheless, Antrim was repeatedly cited by the former President as evidence of widespread fraud, and it remains a centerpiece of conspiracy theories about the 2020 election. At the request of the Michigan Secretary of State and Attorney General, I performed a forensic investigation of the incident. Using data from the election system, I precisely reproduce the major anomalies, explain their cause, and verify they have been corrected. However, I also uncover other errors affecting specific down-ballot contests that have not been corrected, despite the unusual attention focused on the results, one of which may have changed the outcome of a local contest. Based on this analysis, I refute false claims and disinformation about the incident, concluding that it was not the result of a security breach but rather a series of operator errors compounded by inadequate procedures and insufficiently defensive software design. These events offer lessons for election administration and highlight the value of rigorously investigating election technology incidents for enhancing accuracy and public trust."
spenrose··on An Audit of Facebook's Political Ad Policy Enforcement
"In a comprehensive, large-scale analysis of 4.2 million political and 29.6 million non-political ads from 215,030 advertisers, we identify ads correctly detected as political (true positives), ads incorrectly detected (false positives), and ads missed by detection (false negatives). Facebook’s current enforcement appears imprecise: 61% more ads are missed than are detected worldwide, and 55% of U.S. detected ads are in fact non-political. Detection performance is uneven across countries, with some having up to 53 times higher false negative rates among clearly political pages than in the U.S. Moreover, enforcement appears inadequate for preventing systematic violations of political advertising policies: for example, advertisers were able to continue running political ads without disclosing them while they were temporarily prohibited in the U.S"
spenrose··on “Code” 2nd Edition Now Available
The Annotated Turing: how has it been received, how does he feel about it?
spenrose··on Bombora mWave Solution: Wave Energy Converter
1.5MW * (24365) 20 year working life ~= 262,000 MWh. $25M -> ~$100/MWh. Much better than I would have thought for a pilot.
spenrose··on Decarbonisation of grids requires long-duration energy storage
Serious studies of this question:

* https://netzeroamerica.princeton.edu/ (US, but takeaways apply more broadly)

* World-wide: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-26355-z

* Stanford's Marc Jacobsen is a proponent of the opposite view

* Rebuttal of Jacobsen, with links to his work: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1610381114

spenrose··on Cooling the tube – Engineering heat out of the Underground (2017)
"Over the years, the heat from the trains soaked into the clay to the point where it can no longer absorb any more heat. Tunnels that were a mere 14 degrees Celsius in the 1900s can now have air temperatures as high as 30 degrees Celsius on parts of the tube network."
spenrose··on Solving Problems with Decomposition
Notes on the Synthesis of Form is a weird, brilliant book defining a sort of meta-method for problem decomposition. It's the kind of book you'll love—if you like that kind of book ;-)

https://www.designthatmatters.org/blog/2017/1/30/book-review...

spenrose··on Low-cost gel film can pluck drinking water from desert air
Source paper:https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-30505-2

Extracting ubiquitous atmospheric water is a sustainable strategy to enable decentralized access to safely managed water but remains challenging due to its limited daily water output at low relative humidity (≤30% RH). Here, we report super hygroscopic polymer films (SHPFs) composed of renewable biomasses and hygroscopic salt, exhibiting high water uptake of 0.64–0.96 g g−1 at 15–30% RH. Konjac glucomannan facilitates the highly porous structures with enlarged air-polymer interfaces for active moisture capture and water vapor transport. Thermoresponsive hydroxypropyl cellulose enables phase transition at a low temperature to assist the release of collected water via hydrophobic interactions. With rapid sorption-desorption kinetics, SHPFs operate 14–24 cycles per day in arid environments, equivalent to a water yield of 5.8–13.3 L kg−1. Synthesized via a simple casting method using sustainable raw materials, SHPFs highlight the potential for low-cost and scalable atmospheric water harvesting technology to mitigate the global water crisis.

spenrose··on Spreading rock dust on farms as a climate solution
Paper from researchers: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00436-3

"Using life-cycle assessment modelling of potential supply chain impacts for twelve nations undertaking Enhanced Rock Weathering deployment to deliver up to net 2 Gt CO2 yr−1 CDR, we find that rock grinding rather than mining exerts the dominant influence on environmental impacts. This finding holds under both a business-as-usual and clean energy mix scenario to 2050 but transitioning to undertaking Enhanced Rock Weathering in the future with low carbon energy systems improves the sustainability of the Enhanced Rock Weathering supply chain. We find that Enhanced Rock Weathering is competitive with other large-scale Carbon Dioxide Removal strategies in terms of energy and water demands."

spenrose··on Why Jony Ive left Apple to the ‘accountants’
Shirky's review is much better than the excerpt: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/01/books/review/after-steve-...
spenrose··on Apple Inc., ‘After Steve’
"Epilogue aside, the book is an amazingly detailed portrait of the permanent tension between strategy and luck: Companies make their own history, but they do not make it as they please. What happened after Steve was that Cook’s greatest opportunities were in Apple’s future, Ive’s in its past. When the Next Big Thing turned out to be services — iCloud, Apple Music, the App Store — built on top of the Last Big Thing, Cook adapted brilliantly. He took Jobs’s advice and did what was right, but in ways that put less of a premium on the kind of work Ive was best at. The moral of that story is there is no moral. Even one of the richest, most beloved firms in the world could not make its most talented employees successful at the same time."
spenrose··on Bitcoin Miners Want to Recast Themselves as Eco-Friendly
"A single Bitcoin transaction now requires more than 2,000 kilowatt-hours of electricity, or enough energy to power the average American household for 73 days"
spenrose··on The Nordic way to stop bullying
Scholarly paper: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Dan-Olweus/publication/...
spenrose··on Ask HN: Any recommendation for a good History of Science book?
I've read a couple dozen. Best by far is David Wootton's The Invention of Science. Wootton has the language skills to work through the primary materials, and shows how in 100 years we went from educated people believing in werewolves and possession to having a modern, materialist understanding of reality.

https://www.inventionofscience.com

spenrose··on Awesome Critique of Crypto/Web3
Title should be plural: this is a roundup of links to critiques
spenrose··on U.S. corn-based ethanol worse for the climate than gasoline
This appears to be the source: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2e35/...

Central claim: "Their revisions most profoundly reduce predicted land use change (LUC) emissions, for which they propose a central estimate that is roughly half the smallest comparable value they review (figure 1). This LUC estimate represents the midpoint of (a) values retained after filtering the predictions of past studies based on a set of unfounded criteria; and (b) a new estimate they generate for domestic (i.e. U.S.) LUC emissions. The filter the authors apply endorses a singular means of LUC assessment which they assert as the ‘best practice’ despite a recent unacknowledged review (Malins et al 2020 J. Clean. Prod. 258 120716) that shows this method almost certainly underestimates LUC. Moreover, their domestic C intensity estimate surprisingly suggests that cropland expansion newly sequesters soil C, counter to ecological theory and empirical evidence. These issues, among others, prove to grossly underestimate the C intensity of corn-grain ethanol and mischaracterize the state of our science at the risk of perversely affecting policy outcomes."

spenrose··on Satellite finds methane leaks from gas pipelines
Source paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2105.06387.pdf
spenrose··on Global assessment of oil and gas methane ultra-emitters
Preprint version, no paywall: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2105.06387
spenrose··on Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64
This story [1] (NYT paywall) is clearer IMHO:

1. 600,000 more elderly Americans, or 1 of 100, have died during the Covid epidemic than would have died had the epidemic not occurred.

2. 200,000 more non-elderly Americans, or 1 of 1,400, have died—but that's mostly ages 15-64, so more like 1 in 1,000 adults of working age.

3. The CDC says adult death rates were up 20%. [2]

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/13/us/covid-deaths-elderly-a...

[2] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db427.htm#secti...

spenrose··on Bitcoin consumed 134 TWh in total during 2021
The world used about (12,000 Mtoe = ) 140,000 TWh [1], making this 0.1% of world consumption. OP claims 64 MtCO2e of associated GHG emissions, which is also about 0.1%. I'd call these figures under "troubling but not yet material to the climate."

[1] https://www.iea.org/reports/key-world-energy-statistics-2020...

spenrose··on The world’s biggest offshore wind farm, Hornsea 2, generates first power
1. He does mean GW

2. Orsted will average around 60% of nameplate, with wide but predictable variance[1]

3. Nuclear averages 90% of nameplate, with a mix of planned and sudden large outages [op. cit.]

4. Nuclear has higher running costs but longer capital lifetime

5. We need to decarbonize aggressively on multiple timescales: get solar+storage (quickest), wind+storage(reasonably quick), nuclear (s-l-o-w), and advanced geothermal (in development; s-l-o-w then maybe reasonably quick) all deployed.

6. The broad path forward for industrialized societies is solar everywhere, TWh of hour-scale storage, TW of wind, and ~25% of electricity provided by "clean firm": some combination of nuclear, geothermal, H2, and fossil gas with CCS.

7. Electricity consumption will grow faster than the economy in industrialized societies, and as fast as the economy in the currently underserved global south (~3B people). Roughly 10TW today, 20TW in 2040, who knows after that.

[1] https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/hornsea-spawns-...

spenrose··on Challenges of Resolving Merge Conflicts: A Mining and Survey Study [pdf]
" main results, (i) we found that committing small chunks makes merge conflict resolution faster when leaving other independent variables untouched, (ii) we found evidence that merge scenario characteristics (e.g., the number of lines of code or chunks changed in the merge scenario) are stronger correlated with our dependent variable than merge conflict characteristics (e.g., the number of lines of code or chunks in conflict), (iii) we devise a taxonomy of four types of challenges in merge conflict resolution, and (iv) we observed that the inherent dependencies among conflicting and non-conflicting code is one of the main factors influencing the merge conflict resolution time."
spenrose··on Learning containers from the bottom up
> The author is right in that there is no such thing as a container, but only as much as containing is a thing you do, imo. What users think of containers are still just processes though, and I don't think that's an entirely useless abstraction to be cognizant of.

Fantastic distillation. Thank you!

spenrose··on Ask HN: What was your experience like moving from an IC to a manager role?
Read Fournier's The Manager's Path and Linda Hill's Becoming a Manager, which is about sales people 30 years ago but nails the emotional challenges.
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