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spangry

2,398 karma · joined May 19, 2015

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spangry··on California solar power output sometimes exceeds predictions
This kind of regulatory response to natural monopolies can (and does) result in 'gold-plating'. It incentivises profit-maximising monopolists to over-invest in qualifying capital: even though their ROI remains the same, their absolute profit grows larger.

However, there's no easy solution here: natural monopolies are a genuinely tricky public policy issue. Alternative solutions that come to mind are more direct price controls or public ownership. I'm not suggesting these are superior alternatives; just throwing them in there to provide more grist for the conversational mill.

spangry··on California solar power output sometimes exceeds predictions
This is what makes this issue so frustrating to discuss. People care so very much about it, yet often know surprisingly little.
spangry··on California solar power output sometimes exceeds predictions
Huh, well I definitely learned something today.

As for anti-market biases, I suspect we might disagree on the definition of the phrase 'the market'. Admittedly, I mentally put the word 'free' in-front of the word 'market' when I hear it used without qualification. I feel like it's the only safe assumption to make.

Otherwise, chances are, the regulated, distorted and interfered with market that I have in my head is very likely different to the one you have in yours. And unless we both explain what we mean exactly when we say 'the market', we're just kinda talking past each other.

spangry··on California solar power output sometimes exceeds predictions
In most cases the answer is "no, but it helps". Close physical proximity reduces transmission loss (both inward and outward). And hydro storage requires a very specific sort of topography. If you have fortunately built solar energy plants near these sites, great! Otherwise you will probably have to build new transmission infrastructure (likely HVDC), which costs money.
spangry··on California solar power output sometimes exceeds predictions
In the case of natural gas power plants, aren't they (at least some of the time) built due to the need for 'peaker' plants? That is, if there's a sudden surge in demand (which solar can't react to, for obvious reasons) or an unpredictable drop in solar output (e.g. a cloud moves in between California and the sun), gas plants can quickly fire up to cover the output gap (much quicker than, say, coal or nuclear).

Wholesale electricity prices should naturally spike during these times as well. Demand is temporarily outpacing supply. That's the market in the very short-run, I guess. In the long run, I don't agree that we should 'listen to the market'. The market doesn't price in externalities like increased infrastructure costs (which are usually worn by taxpayers) or greenhouse gas emissions (a global negative externality) unless the government steps in to internalise these costs.

I honestly don't know much about California's electricity market, but it seems like no one has been 'listening to the market' for quite some time now: https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2016/01/15/california-... , http://www.gosolarcalifornia.ca.gov/solarwater/index.php , http://www.gosolarcalifornia.ca.gov/about/nshp.php

spangry··on Official Response to “Bancor Is Flawed”
It's only my faint impression, but I think there's some renewed interest in some sort of international financial / monetary framework similar to Bretton-Woods.

The governor of the Chinese central bank publicly expressed interest (and explicitly invoked Bretton-Woods) a few months ago. And other 'mainstream' central banking authorities seem to be acknowledging that there are big deficiencies with the current model (e.g http://www.bis.org/speeches/sp160210_slides.pdf)

I think the problem is that it's such a huge issue. It makes sense the original agreement was hammered out towards the end of WWII: people were 'thinking big' at the time. I worry that we are only capable of making such big and forward-thinking moves in the wake of some catastrophe or war...

EDIT: The 'renewed interest' is actually mentioned in the Wikipedia article on Keynes' Bancor proposal, and it looks like the governor of the Chinese central bank has been talking about this for some time now: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bancor#Proposed_revival

spangry··on On Becoming the Enemy
Well, that's kinda encouraging. Interesting to see the number of genocides fall off starting in 1989. Maybe normal statistical variation + dissolution of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991?
spangry··on Blockchains are the new Linux, not the new Internet
It's not so much banks using blockchain. It's more blockchain being the new 'magic beans' that Deloitte, Accenture and their ilk can sell to clueless (but 'agile'!) executives.
spangry··on Is neuroenhancement by noninvasive brain stimulation a net zero-sum proposition?
Isn't it false to assume the human body (and the human brain) is a 'closed system'? This is going to sound mighty stupid, but doesn't the fact that we ingest variable amounts of food (i.e. energy) suggest that in surplus situations this energy can be used 'on the spot', rather than converted to long-term storage (i.e. fat)?
spangry··on People killed by terrorism per year in western Europe 1970-2015
Ah, thanks, I think I get it now.

So, if my understanding of the situation is right, there are a number of conflicts that involve militant Islamic groups, but some of these conflicts are being spurred on by foreign powers with ulterior motives. These foreign powers provide support to some of these groups (in the form of arms, training, and/or direct combat support?)

And the solution would be for these foreign powers to, in one way or another, directly address and resolve their disagreements? At that point there's no reason to be waging proxy wars and the foreign powers can withdraw their support / intervention, or intervene with more benign motives (e.g. humanitarian) where appropriate.

Just to preface this, my understanding of what's happening in the middle-east is tenuous at best. But I think one possible wrinkle is that we now have a situation where there are 'proxy wars within proxy wars'. Starting from the outermost layer, you've got the US on one side and Russia on the other (I think?). I'm actually not 100% clear on their motivations. And on the inside layer you have two opposing regional powers and major oil producers (i.e. economic competitors, despite the recent tepid OPEC agreement) who also have religious differences: Saudi Arabia (Sunni / Wahhabi - US aligned) and Iran & Syria (Shia - Russia aligned). These two might engage in some direct military action (not with each other though), but also fund groups like Al-Qaeda and Hezbollah (who are variously thought of as legitimate political entities, terrorists, resistance movements and so on depending on where you stand).

And then there are 'third-party' groups who I'm not sure are strongly aligned with one side or another, but are nonetheless involved: IS / Daesh (who are religiously opposed to Iran, but to whom Saudi Arabia responded by building a 600 mile wall to try and keep them [Daesh] out of their territory), Turkey(?), Kurdistan and Israel (who, weirdly, I guess are nominally aligned with Saudi Arabia and the US, given their concerns about Iranian nukes and conflicts with Hezbollah).

Does that sound right to you, or have I gone horribly wrong somewhere?

spangry··on People killed by terrorism per year in western Europe 1970-2015
I guess a more analogous phenomena would be sudden death due to various medical conditions. Just to pick a random one (not the only one): spontaneous coronary artery dissection.

Statistics are rather difficult to come by on this, but assuming the US population incidence is 0.28% [0] of all 735,000 'heart attacks' per year in the US [1], with a mortality rate of 60% (wikipedia says 70% but that number is iffy), that's 1235 random "sudden deaths" per year from just one non-preventable and non-predictable medical condition alone.

So I suspect the more general point, that statistically you are much more likely to be randomly killed by "not terrorism", is probably a valid one.

[0] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/3249260/

[1] https://www.cdc.gov/heartdisease/heart_attack.htm

spangry··on People killed by terrorism per year in western Europe 1970-2015
For the benefit of dummies like me, what's the lesson / clue?
spangry··on China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says
I don't have the time atm to get into much detail (but will come back in 8ish hours after work), but very quickly:

- This is just a simplified description of probably the simplest macro-economic growth model you'll learn if you study economics. It's basically the model you learn in Macro 101. I didn't really want to write a super-long post going through all the extensions of the base model (not to mention the more complicated micro-economically founded concepts, models and theories you'd learn if you study developmental economics) as one of the predictions of the simple model that I thought relevant, that economies experience slower rates of growth as they reach capital saturation, is empirically supported.

- It's not intended to accurately reflect all aspects of a actual economy. No model is. If a model did this, it wouldn't be a model. We would probably just call it 'the economy'. It's just a simplified model from which a number of more complex extensions have been made, but I didn't feel were worth going into.

- It doesn't purport to make realistic assumptions, and no-one with any sense would think that to be the case. In addition to what you've pointed out, it also assumes the economy only produces a single good, has no government, no international trade, and constant returns to scale. All of these are almost certainly incorrect to varying degrees. Despite these simplifying assumptions, that does not mean the model is useless, or that it does not make any testable predictions. No-one in their right mind would think these assumptions are correct.

I'm honestly not sure what level of realism you expect an economic model to have. Just because a model is strictly wrong (as all models are; hence the name: model), does not mean it isn't useful. You mention empirical results from behavioural economics, which strongly suggest the neoclassical assumption of perfect actor rationality is incorrect. Again, this is just a simplifying assumption under which models can still yield accurate predictions in the large. Is Newton's law of gravitation completely correct? No, and it's been superseded by general relativity. However, is it still useful? Yes.

I can't really think of any economists (and this is certainly true for those I work with), let alone any people in general, who would believe any of these assumptions accurately reflect reality. There are a whole bunch of others too, like the implicit assumption that the labour-capital split of income remains constant. This is also almost certainly not correct as well.

It, and its extensions which account for 'human capital' (which has a multiplicative effect when combined with physical capital) which the simplified model just rolls into the solow residual (i.e. total factor productivity), do make a number of testable predictions, some of which have actually been tested in cross-country econometric studies. For example, here's a paper that examines a number of extended models, and among other things, examines the evidence for absolute vs conditional convergence (http://www2.stat.unibo.it/brasili/file/2009-2010/COSDI/chap1..., see pages 48 & 49).

You can literally just look at the model equation, do some simple algebra to turn one of the independent variables into the sole dependent variable and, presto, you have a prediction. Here are a few:

- An economy will converge to a balanced-growth equilibrium, regardless of its starting point. At this point, the growth of output per worker is determined solely by the rate of technological progress.

- At equilibrium, the capital/output ratio depends only on savings, growth, and depreciation rates.

- Countries with higher savings rates will accumulate capital at a faster rate (if all other relevant features of these economies are the same, which they aren't).

- If productivity is the same across countries (which it isn't), then countries with less capital per worker will have a higher marginal productivity of capital and provide a higher return on capital investment. Consequently, in a world of open market economies and global financial capital (which does not exist, and probably can't), investment will flow from rich countries to poor countries, until capital/worker and income/worker equalise across countries.

All that said, if you are able to produce a model that makes no incorrect assumptions, accurately accounts for bounded rationality, and all its predictions in every real world scenario are accurate, you'll win a nobel prize (and will also become filthy rich by investing according to this super-model's predictions).

Given us economist have simply just been 'doing it wrong' this whole time, because we foolishly didn't realise SF computer programmers held a much deeper understanding of macroeconomics, I'm really excited to being a first-hand witness to, what will be, a quantum leap in our understanding of macroeconomic dynamics and development economics.

I'll try to make sure to list every relevant caveat (the above is only a partial list, at best, for this particular model btw), before daring to discuss an unscientific subject like economics (which I apparently know nothing about).

EDIT: Oh fuck it. I quit.

spangry··on China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says
Australia?
spangry··on China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says
As a developing country, China has lots of easy productivity growth just by adopting current technologies on the technological frontier.

High rates of growth in developing countries, with the rate slowing as they 'catch-up' to more developed countries, is also what the bog-standard macro-growth model (Solow-Swan) predicts.[0] To simplify, developing countries will have lots of labour inputs and relatively few capital inputs. Therefore the marginal factor productivity of each capital input will be high. Eventually, as the economy reaches capital saturation, the marginal productivity of capital will decline and the economy will settle into a low 'steady-state' growth level, where real growth is largely the product of technological advances.

This is why I've always been puzzled by economic commentators who assume China will continue to enjoy 7-9% GDP growth rates forever. Although I'm not suggesting that there's "nothing to see here" in this particular case. China does indeed have a bubble (and massive oversupply) in its residential property market, mostly due to the stimulus deployed just after the GFC. It could make one hell of a pop.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solow%E2%80%93Swan_model#Condi...

spangry··on U.S. top court tightens patent suit rules in blow to ‘patent trolls’
It's a tax haven that doesn't tax earnings derived from 'intangible assets' (e.g. licensing fees that "Widget Co. California" pays to "Widget Co. Delaware" for using the trademarked Widget Co. logo).
spangry··on U.S. top court tightens patent suit rules in blow to ‘patent trolls’
On Delaware, because many corporations incorporate there (or incorporate a subsidiary there). It's strange this hasn't been mentioned yet, but the primary reason Delaware is so popular is because it's a domestic & international tax haven [0][1][2]. It's one of the reasons the US is ranked 3rd (of 102) on the Tax Justice Network's "Financial Secrecy Index' (behind Switzerland and Hong Kong).

Interestingly, Delaware should be especially attractive to 'IP heavy' companies, and other companies that have large amounts of 'intangible capital' (e.g. tech companies), as Delaware doesn't tax earnings generated from 'intangible assets'. So if you're a large multi-state / multi-national corporation, you set up a subsidiary (or incorporate your HQ) in Delaware, dump all your intangible assets there, and then charge your related entities fees when they use these intangible assets (e.g. IP & trademark licensing fees).

These fees can then be claimed as deductions in the State / Country the related entity happens to be in (unless the jurisdiction has strong transfer pricing laws that outlaw the more egregious instances of this practice). As with all tax-havens, it's the 'beggar-thy-neighbour' approach to attracting 'capital investment'.

[0] http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/01/business/how-delaware-thri...

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/apr/06/panama-paper...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate_haven#North_America

spangry··on What Do Millennials Spend All Their Money On?
It won't need to be 17% this time around, that's for sure. Just to give people a sense of the magnitude of the debt Australians are in:

- When mortgage rates 'peaked' in 1989 at around 17%, aggregate interest payments ate up about 6% of aggregate household disposable income.

- When mortgage rates 'peaked' in 2007 at around 9%, aggregate interest payments ate up about 11% of aggregate household disposable income.

We're more indebted now than we were in 2007. An external shock that causes mortgage rates to rise by as little as 1% (relative to incomes) will probably be enough to trigger our long overdue 'Minksky moment'. [0]

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsky_moment

spangry··on Labour is right–Karl Marx has a lot to teach today’s politicians
What you've highlighted is what I've always thought Marx's primary criticism of capitalism was: that the surplus value (roughly: revenue - wages - cost of capital) from industrial production is deemed the exclusive property of the owners of capital. Following from this was the prediction that this surplus value would be used to attain additional capital which would accumulate in the hands of the capital owning class until capital entirely replaced labour in production.

In the context of the industrial revolution, IMHO Marx's predictions were ultimately incorrect. It turns out that steam is not intelligent enough to run the machines, and so production still requires the employment of labour. Consequently, up until this point, capital has enhanced the productivity of labour, not displaced it. Some of this productivity gain has even been captured by labour in the form of increasing wages.

I wonder if recent the advances in machine-learning will, in time, be viewed as the start of the 'next industrial revolution'? More disturbingly, I can't help but think Marx might be proven right this time around...

spangry··on Psychopathy: A new clinical approach offers hope
I'm not sure how to bring this to the attention of a mod, but is it possible to merge this post with this other one: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14355964

EDIT: maybe if someone flags this commment... don't worry I won't mind :)

spangry··on When your child is a psychopath
Seems pretty quiet in here, so I figure I'll do a bit of spruiking. The article is definitely worth the read; I found it quite riveting.

The most interesting part is the suggestion that there might be effective methods of treating psychopathy/sociopathy. This would be groundbreaking if true, as psychopathy is generally thought to be untreatable. In fact, it has been observed that treatment will often just teach psychopaths how to more effectively manipulate others.

Another interesting bit: brain scan studies show that psychopaths have smaller amygdalae compared to non-psychopaths. The amygdala is a part of the brain that processes emotions, particularly fear, and is implicated in 'fear conditioning'. It's basically your brain's "module" for heuristic threat recognition. For example, the amygdala of an arachnophobe will light up and send the "pump adrenaline" signal if they are exposed to a spider. In contrast, psychopaths don't seem to experience fear and have difficulty recognising this emotion in others:

"I don’t know what you call this emotion," one psychopathic prisoner said, looking at a photo of a fearful face, "but it’s what people look like just before you stab them."

spangry··on When your child is a psychopath
I've always been fascinated by this idea; the possibility that a few of the highly popular or charismatic people you come across are actually psychopaths with a well constructed 'mask'. Indeed, one of the phrases that is used to describe this concept in general is 'the mask of sanity'.
spangry··on Amazon to Build a Permanent Mary's Place Family Shelter Within Its Headquarters
I've started to think we might have the causality reversed here: government is inefficient not because it's 'the government', it's inefficient because the problems it concerns itself with don't have efficient market-based solutions (e.g. poverty alleviation, national defence etc.).

If you think about government delivered services as simply a provider operating in a market for that service, you'll find a startling large proportion of them are natural monopoly markets, or markets that produce public goods (non-rivalrous and non-excludable e.g. national defence). Would a private monopolist be more efficient in these situations, simply because they are not 'the government'?

spangry··on Why Are Economists Giving Piketty the Cold Shoulder?
I don't think that all who disagree with Picketty's conclusions do so simply because they don't like them. Nor would I agree that all critiques are mere nitpicks. For example, here's an IMF working paper that conducts an empirical examination of Picketty's hypothesis: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2016/wp16160.pdf

From the abstract:

In this paper, I build a set of Panel SVAR models to check if inequality and capital share in the national income move up as the r-g gap grows. Using a sample of 19 advanced economies spanning over 30 years, I find no empirical evidence that dynamics move in the way Piketty suggests. Results are robust to several alternative estimates of r-g.

spangry··on Recovering from Burnout and Depression
This article really resonates with me. I burned out badly around 2 years ago and have still not recovered. 2 years. Although it's probably exacerbated by pre-existing chronic depression in my case.

It's cost me so much. My friends, who I've all alienated. My general physical health, which is the worst it's ever been in my adult life. Strained family relationships. Gaining a reputation for being 'unreliable'.

If you notice that feeling of exhaustion/frustration creeping up on you, even though objectively what you're doing shouldn't be that strenuous, stop. Stop right there and take a long break. Don't tell yourself "I'll just close out this project and then take a break". Just stop. The extra couple of months of work you might be able to force out of yourself are not worth the years of hell that may follow.

spangry··on How Australia Bungled Its $36B High-Speed Internet Rollout
Man, that's pretty nice. Looking at the TPG plan page I'm guessing that's at 100/40? What's bandwidth contention like? I know TPG cop a bit of flak on whirlpool, but for the 2 or so years I had ADSL with them I never had a problem...

When you say v6 /56, does that mean you can have 4,722,366,482,869,645,213,696 addressable hosts? [I don't CIDR gud...]

spangry··on How Australia Bungled Its $36B High-Speed Internet Rollout
This gets repeated a lot, but people seem to forget that a large part of the continent/island [?] is inhospitable desert. Our population distribution looks like this: https://qph.ec.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-4afe2e7cc5078f81d6a999...

About 60% of the population is clustered in 4 cities [0] and we're one of the most urbanised countries in the world [1].

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_Australia#Cities

[1] https://infrastructure.gov.au/infrastructure/pab/soac/ & http://theconversation.com/density-sprawl-growth-how-austral...

spangry··on How Australia Bungled Its $36B High-Speed Internet Rollout
Yep Hackett called it right. He put his money where his mouth was too: he sold his ISP to iiNet/iiBorg (who were subsequently consumed by TPG) and got the fuck outta dodge. It's a pity; Internode was possibly the best ISP in the country.
spangry··on How Australia Bungled Its $36B High-Speed Internet Rollout
Hilariously, the conservative government currently in power made the following election campaign promises [0] [1] in 2013 (the election where they won government):

- Every household and business to have access to broadband with a download data rate of between 25 and 100 megabits per second by late 2016. [We're currently trailing Kenya]

- Key prices for a Coalition NBN will be capped nationally, ensuring Australians in metropolitan and regional areas alike can obtain services at fair prices. [For the low low price of $80 a month, on a 24 month contract, you can get 25Mbps/5Mbps from our two largest telcos: Telstra & Optus] [2] [3]

- "...unshackle the competitive telecom market that Labor tried to stamp out, and reduce the cost of the NBN to prudent levels." [Because of the NBN wholesale cost structure and network inter-connect structure, our retail ISPs are rapidly consolidating. We're likely to have three left standing by the end. To be fair, the latter wasn't the current government's fault.]

- They would complete the network roll-out at 2/3 the cost of the previous plan. [The Parliamentary Budget Office estimated in December 2016 that the total network cost will be $49 billion. However, the current government did make the entirely unsubstantiated and unquestioned claim that the $44B plan for FTTP was actually going to cost $90B.] [4]

So, things seem to be going to plan so far. The worst part about all this is that everyone seemed to eat this shit right up at the time. Even Australia's tech so-called 'journalists' were all going on about how the Coalition had presented a 'credible alternative'.

We deserve this, because we're stupid.

[0] PDF of election document: https://www.communications.gov.au/file/315/download?token=8O...

[1] HTML cached version: https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:Ih8ycW...

[2] https://www.telstra.com.au/broadband/nbn/nbn-plans

[3] http://www.optus.com.au/shop/broadband/home-broadband/plans?...

[4] http://www.news.com.au/national/nbn-cost-blowout-to-impact-b...

spangry··on Diet Drinks are not killing you
Not sure about the rest, but doesn't the Australia and New Zealand Food Standards Authority just adopt the USFDA stance where appropriate?

I don't know. What leads you to think that?

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