shric

I work for an HFT (not Jane Street) so I am biased, but we (the HFT industry as a whole) are quite small compared to big tech.

I’d estimate the total global HFT revenue to be 100 billion dollars a year, which is less than Apple and a tiny percentage of all big tech combined.

You got me curious...

I am around 1500 (actually 1649 on lichess blitz, but close enough).

I explored the last 5 games I played on lichess. Here are the number of moves before lichess had never seen that position before for each of the 5 games: 6, 12, 16, 15, 11.

> If you find yourself in a novel position within 10-15 moves it's likely a resignable one

The opponent is also going to be in a novel position. Should both players resign?

Just in case you think this is limited to low rated players like 1500s, look at MagnusCarlsen's most used account on Blitz: https://lichess.org/@/DrNykterstein/search?perf=2

You will see that most games become unique to the whole of lichess within 15-20 moves and a good chunk between 10-15.

I agree with you right up until “end of story”. Absolutely they should be held accountable, but stories provide details and there is nothing wrong with including details in the title.

Or could we take your original statement to its logical conclusion and change the title to just “OpenAI commits crime”?

> They're accountable for what their software does.

Sure, but doesn’t it depend on the circumstances?

That would only work for the first few (from around 10 to 20 typically depending on how close people stick to opening book) moves.

Conservatively there are well over 10 to the 30 positions likely to show up in realistic games.

There are of the order of 10 to the 10 or so games recorded.

Thus well under one in a trillion positions are "known".

> so it should possible to see these LLMs relative to a human 1500 rather than just relative to each other

As a 1500 elo human I can tell you that a 1500 elo chess engine doesn't play like anything like a 1500 elo human.

I suspect my IQ isn’t quite high enough to join Mensa but I’ve always flirted with the idea of trying to join and getting in just to see what a group of Mensa people are like.

They study it because it has done things that humans had long assumed were bad until AI proved otherwise. The conceptual knowledge has been valuable at the top level.

For those who don’t follow human vs AI Go (I don’t), this is with a 2 stone handicap in favor of the human which is apparently standard.

Bridges are not free

It’s unusable in Sydney, Australia.

It might be fine for pure navigation to addresses but business addresses and other metadata are often missing or out of date because people only bother to update Google Maps. Also that’s where all the reviews are.

I don’t want to use two different apps for navigation vs finding businesses.

I have aphantasia and I don’t have much trouble thinking of data structures and so on without visualising them. It’s hard to describe how I do it. I do imagine it would be easier with visualisation. If it gets hard I’ll use a pen and paper or an editor to make diagrams.

Things I seem to be average or above average at that I’d expect aphantasia to be a disadvantage for:

- the “chimp test” (search if you don’t know what this is)

- chess (but I have hit a wall at 1500 on chess.com and I find it very hard to explore future moves in my head more than a few. I feel like if I studied chess 8 hours a day for 30 years I still couldn’t hope to play blindfold chess)

- remembering numbers and computer facts.

- spelling including remembering spellings of obscure surnames I’ve never heard of before

I think even people without aphantasia can’t typically use visualisation for reliable storage of things even in the short term, correct me if I’m wrong. A extremely rare few have a photographic memory.

It’s finally gaining some traction…

https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html

It shows 98.3% for actions for me

https://ibb.co/PsMkpJFY

What sold you on GitHub Actions? The one 9 of reliability?

https://www.githubstatus.com/

There are only 5-10 countries in the world that I know of that don’t have mobile data caps. The vast majority of the HN demographic do not live in those countries.

The remainder either have an explicit hard cap or some kind of fair use clause that throttles when you reach some undisclosed amount.

Yeah. That's why I asked if there was something better

> "advanced LLMs like GPT-4"

Not sure where you're quoting from but if it's the metaculus question comments, many of them are from 2023. The consensus is it will resolve in 2029. I believe it will not resolve before 2035.

It depends who takes the test. I am not yet, to my knowledge, fooled by AI.

I've tried [1] and I almost 100% detect which is the AI. I really want to convince myself I have failed, does anyone know of a better site/resource for this?

I know it might be moving goalposts but I would consider AI to have passed in a well and truly undisputed manner when [2] is resolved.

But in a more practical sense, if AI can impersonate humans so well today then why are state of the art frontier models so obviously AI when they create PRs, commit messages, documentation, etc. Are the companies deliberately making them unnatural?

[1] https://turingtest.live/

[2] https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11861/date-when-ai-passe...

I genuinely don’t understand what problem this solves. Running on operating systems that can run web browsers but not terminal emulators?

However, the author is a legend whom I remember from running FreeBSD since 1997

> basically never dream

I’m open to correction but my understanding is everyone dreams when they have REM sleep and everyone has some REM sleep every night unless there are rare medical conditions which would be unhealthy if there is a long period of no REM sleep.

People who believe they never dream (including myself before I learned this) simply don’t remember it. If you were woken artificially during REM you might remember fragments.

Welcome to Substack

Oh, they can do whatever they want, I just find it strange. With very few exceptions, people who are “elite” at anything don’t need to blog about their eliteness, their work speaks for itself.

Imagine for example Fabrice Bellard (too many amazing accomplishments to list here) posting that he’s an elite developer. That’s right, he doesn’t need to, everyone knows it already.

I’m fascinated that some people in our field choose to self describe themselves as “elite”.

Are there any programming/computer science greats that self aggrandize like this? Is it a cultural thing somewhere that I’m not aware of?

If you need (or want) to see your investment portfolio that often then I don’t think you and I have the same definition of “investment”

I give it a 0 chance he’s right.

Did Wave have performance issues? I thought it was amazing, they just killed it because it didn’t have enough adoption

I’ve never worked anywhere where there isn’t at least 3 times more work to do than there is time and developers to do it.

“Only language” eh? I only have a passing familiarity or very distant memory so could be wrong but I’d say these are the same:

Perl (needs use strict)

Ancient VB/VBA/VB script

Original PHP (no idea about modern)

PowerShell

Old Windows/DOS batch

> In all sincerity, what do you mean by wholly unpleasant?

“Wholly” was too strong a word now that I think about it.

But I’ll give two main things I find unpleasant.

One: Normally I like working with other people. There is nothing more satisfying than collaborating on a complex problem with smart and conscientious colleagues. However, the bad experiences are now amplified:

- a random colleague gets sent down a wild gooose chase of an LLM claiming there is an issue with something I wrote. It’s a full blown hallucination because it found a confluence page which mentioned me and just decided to connect things together.

- another colleague is suddenly empowered with being able to vibe code websites and is now copying and pasting my replies into an LLM and pasting the LLM back at me over Slack.

- a colleague gives a quick drive by vibe coded PR to add a feature into something I own. It reimplements the same business logic that is already done elsewhere. It takes me more energy to explain all this than just do it myself.

There are dozens more examples. In isolation I can shrug each of these off, but it’s draining. Large organisations have become more “agile” with local optimisations and missing the bigger picture.

Two: while I agree that everything is getting done faster and I do get satisfaction out of that, I’m a deep in the weeds technical person. I don’t have it in me to be a big picture person or a people leader. I love having to think about algorithms, data structures, schemas, etc. While I can use AI has a pair programmer, it’s doing a lot of the thinking for me and it’s usually faster. So yes it makes me a better engineer, no I don’t enjoy not thinking as much. I don’t enjoy shifting solely to a higher level of abstraction. Maybe that makes me a bad engineer, but I cannot change how I feel about it.