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shoubidouwah

183 karma · joined January 7, 2023

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shoubidouwah··on How much of the world is it possible to model?
All of you would love the "obscure cities" series of comics (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Les_Cit%C3%A9s_obscures), as well as some works by J. Abeille (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacques_Abeille#Les_Jardins_st...)
shoubidouwah··on Do venture capitalists want forever war?
coincidentally explored by sci-fi quite extensively. e.g: The Red, by L. Nagata.
shoubidouwah··on OpenAI ex-CEO on inheritance tax
Yep. I have -blessedly?- no Twitter account. And I distrust the purge arguments... Actually believe that such an inheritance spread scheme could advantageously replace a bunch of welfare programs. It is both non punitive, equalitarian, by its very nature reparative (literally wipes generational/racial advantages), and in a way libertarian to the extreme: parents inheritance is to libertarian kids what government handouts is to social democrats.(for the oblivious: bit tongue in cheek for the last one)
shoubidouwah··on OpenAI ex-CEO on inheritance tax
True. I was not even thinking internationally - I defaulted to my french POV...
shoubidouwah··on OpenAI ex-CEO on inheritance tax
Another good idea, IMHO, is a thresholded 100% tax (e.g, after 2M per heir, excluding main résidence), everything is put in a sovereign fund. Basically the same effect, but doesn't touch smaller inheritances and family house.
shoubidouwah··on C diff spores resist bleach and remain viable on surgical scrubs, fabrics
Just wanted to add as an additional wrinkle in the simple ecomnomic explanations : a lot of the "discovering drugs" part -still necessary before you can actually sell drugs, afaik-, hinges very much on having really good researchers work for you. And these researchers do care about curing diseases: I do not have one colleague that does not dream of being a new Salk. The market needs thus to correct for it: it tends to be more efficient / worth it to be ethical, because it is a prerequisite for top talent hiring in this space.

This is of course complicated further by the sheer pigheadedness of CEOs with a career half life of 3 years who come in, _revolutionize_ something by destroying it and antagonizing the workers, bloat HR a bit more and drive sales through something illegal; and finally move on, tallying that one a success.

shoubidouwah··on Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario
there is no OR gates in biology, only mutable distributions. the probability might be small for the two traits to appear, the overlap will occur with some frequency over billions of people. Also, and more importantly, the first condition is pretty heavily biological, the second is more of a social consequence. Just take a genius, give him internet and a healthy dollop of trauma, push the mysanthropism to 11 and watch the fireworks.
shoubidouwah··on Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario
One good way of staying to a prudent course / halting haphazard - winner takes all progress is to use social tech for it. In particular, there is an interesting possibility: the top researchers who drive the AI scenario all kind of know each other, and can self-organize in an international union, with pooled resources for strikes. AI revolution is dependent on simultaneous progress and cross capitalization of good ideas: a well timed strike of a good portion of research worldwide can stop things from moving on pretty effectively.
shoubidouwah··on Google tests A.I. tool that is able to write news articles
I think there's a difference between the concept of journalism and content creation / copywriting. Both come from the same school programs in a way, but while the latter is pretty trivially replaced by AI, the former is a combination of curiosity, multi-step investigation, physical ferreting of information and sensations, and emotionally charged writing to get a point across in a way that is recognizable as art when well done. Journalism is safe from AI for now, but was not safe from cost-cutting and (infotainementization?) cultural debasement.

A potential upside is: lowering the marginal cost of page filling drivel so much in conjunction with declining advertisement revenue, the whole industry collapses in on itself, taking opinion pieces with it. The baseline for getting out of journalism school would be "write better than an AI", and the reporter jobs themselves become high status / high difficulty again.

A potential downside is: nothing written ever matters again, all information is a rehashed AP cutting with prompt engineering, and AP / Reuters become a set of controlled bottlenecks.

The scary thing is: this will be decided by whether the paying customer wants to be informed, or feel the warm glow of confirmation bias?

shoubidouwah··on The businessmen broke Hollywood
Add a /s so nobody's confused. That's inclusivity!
shoubidouwah··on For chemists, the AI revolution has yet to happen
That is just false. The gatekeepers of this data see a new algorithm, get excited, try it, test it against the aforementioned model, and then keep the old model because it's just better /s.

Real talk now, I'm an "AI person" from big pharma, and we're quite up to date. topological neural networwks, diffusion models, QM neural potentials, large scale meta-learning, systematic active learning, we're doing it all. We also know that most of the time, a small bayesian GLM or random forest on run-of-the-mill descriptors actually works very well and fails predictably, which is important.

Data in pharma in particular tends to be sparse and shallow: a hundred datapoints clustered tightly in chemical space because that's what the process generates. Sharing the data can lead competitors to the precious IP you're protecting, which is why we also invest a lot in blind federated learning etc.

Anyway, the going's tough, but everyone is doing their best. nobody's dismissing AI at all... we're just more aware of the domain-specific pitfalls.

shoubidouwah··on AI Submissions to Clarkesworld Continue
Sam Kriss has a pretty wild post about this, with a running metaphor of LLMs as golems: https://samkriss.substack.com/p/the-cacophony
shoubidouwah··on Why is inflation so sticky? It could be corporate profits
the rent, as always: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_rent

and the companies do not want to compete: most modern large companies only exist as a _vehicle for investment_, and as such compete for shareholders, not consumers. Due to this, short-termism dominates: average CEO stays 4 years at a given company, and performance of the company after they leave is largely uncorrelated with their carreer success, while share prices during tenure actually does.

So they'll suck the blood from us, crash everything, and get a raise when politicians ask them very nicely to try and fix it. And while share prices will go down on the S&P, billionaires will gte richer, and hedges will make bank...

shoubidouwah··on News Minimalist – Only significant news
Love it, subscribed! some thoughts:

- people are harping on bias, but I think they miss the point. Use the tool, get the tool result, and let god sort them out.

- Multilingual sources are core to the value proposition. Make it a community list with tags, e.g: a user from india add their favourite local UP political news source with tags [india] [politics]. then you can taylor the reports by interests (yes, like all news aggregation websites before. they do it because it's needed I think)

- likewise,store the summaries, then enable users to ask for a rewighing with their interests in the prompt, e.g: "I am a well educated, religious Emirati interested mainly in news about the wars and tensions in the middlke east, as well as car racing"

- get news by actual news, not by news source. E.g: get the embeddings of the news, cluster, get summarization of "best" sources of cluster with added info like likely primary source, histograms of reputation vs sentiment vs political leaning

- todays news give you also access to the comments, both on the site and e.g: on reddit and twitter. add maybe a comment summarization / sentiment analysis (e.g: 90% of comments on this new york post article were racist one-liners. Dicscusion on this Korean article revolve around effects on workforce mental health, etc)

- you mention cost: make accounts able to add their ChatGPT API keys, with an estimation of how much you'll use, ang keep these accounts free. For the others, warn that in time you'll add a small charge maybe?

shoubidouwah··on Can Fortran survive another 15 years?
for fortran, the intel one (ifort) generally produces much faster binaries. The NAG compiler is known for having great warnings / quality control and pushes you to write better code. Both are available for windows compilation. I do not know the others, but GCC is very good if you do nothing performance critical (but then again you're writing fortran...), you want good but not great checks, and you do not need windows binaries.

Everyone I met who writes fortran (mainly for quantum chemistry, solid state physics programs) uses multiple compilers to ensure the highest quality code.

shoubidouwah··on Seawater electrolysis by adjusting the local reaction environment of a catalyst
I seem to remember (don't have the source anymore, if someone can find it again I'd be grateful) that half of the total fuel produced worldwide is used to litterally take the other 50% to where it's needed. Delocalization of fuel production would be a BIG deal.
shoubidouwah··on UK Guidance on ML in Healthcare
We knew good manufacturing practices would come to modelling someday...
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