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sek

1,664 karma · joined April 3, 2011

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sek··on Think young people are hostile to capitalism now? Wait for the next recession
"The more they feel that the system is rigged against them, the more they will demand the system itself be overthrown"

The author talks about it like the only alternative is overthrowing the system. This is another extreme, maybe the word you should use here is the social market economy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_market_economy). We use this term here in Germany, even our most deregulation friendly party is committed to it and by definition it's still capitalist.

sek··on Thomas Cook collapses, stranding 150k UK holidaymakers
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TCG.L/balance-sheet?p=TCG.L

This looks really bleak, everybody who had some liabilites to Thomas Cook in any way should at least consider the chance of insolvency.

The hotels should be able to check this information, but consumers?

Every person who gets a new phone contract has his credit rating checked, but if hundreds of thousand people buy expensive flights nobody warns them about the risk.

sek··on The We Company S-1
It also took me a while, this is WeWork.

I think they overdid it with the branding. Snap from SnapChat was already pretty short, but it is at least a verb and not a pronoun.

sek··on The day Volkswagen briefly conquered the world (2018)
They had all the control and wanted to keep it. VW had a lot of cash but they couldn't just take it because 20% of it belonged to Lower Saxony and probably tax reasons. So they gave a loan with better conditions to Porsche from VW. It was not really a bailout, it was more of a restructuring.
sek··on The Slow Death of Hollywood
I think it's a combination of things, but primarily we are in a low interest environment.

Money is looking desperately for something to invest in and the problem of Hollywood and cable companies was that they made too much money. Netflix was a distributor who figured that out and was creating a low subscription model for content.

When the content producers realised this Netflix was exposed, they knew they would not renew their contracts and as a defensive measure just started producing content like mad. They had all this leverage because the market is flooded with money and they have a pretty stable revenue stream.

Netflix is what Napster was for music, because movies were always too big to pirate it took a little longer. Now it's too late, people don't buy a CD with one song for $12 dollars and they won't pay $100 for a cable subscription any longer.

sek··on Ask HN: Who wants to be hired? (July 2019)
Software Developer for ~7 years. From Germany. Built up a joint venture at a bigger company and spent several years in IT consulting with mostly cutting edge tech stacks. I am used to projects with me working on the full stack. DevOps, backend to frontend not afraid of anything and dig down to the metal if it is needed. My best you get when I work on a node.js/Typescript backend and a React frontend. I am also proficient in working with stakeholders around a project.

I am interested and use backend architectures like DDD and have domain expertise from various fields.

Location:

  Remote: Yes

  Willing to relocate: no

  Technologies: Javascript (7y) React (~5y), had real projects with Go/Java/PHP, experience with Docker/Kubernetes/Bluetooth

  Résumé/CV: More details after request

  Email: sekistner@gmail.com
sek··on It's Cold in the Information Age
What you can see here is market maturity, this is a very common thing. There was just so much to do in the computer industry so far.

Look at the history of other industries, there have been hundreds of car companies before Ford took out most of them with the Model T.

Imagine you are one of those people working is the car industry before that. "Company X had a car that drove 50 miles per hour, a new record, insane! The last record got broken just a few months ago...".

What is happening in other mature markets with good dynamics is that gains come much more slowly and it becomes "boring" so you don't think about it too much. You get an incredibly efficient and secure car for a few thousand dollars, profits come from people who buy for status. If you look at the truck industry or aviation, the margins are really low, buyers mostly care about price there.

Most people don't need more than a smartphone, they already buy for status, others need a Mac or a cloud instance like truck drivers need a special kind of car to do their work.

There are just so many car companies, there will be just so many cloud hosters with will compete for ever shrinking margins to run your cloud-function-app magically infinitely scalable on their gigantic datacenters. If you want your own get a raspberry pi rack.

This is amazing, this frees so much energy and resources to focus on other stuff that matters.

Look at software, the next decades we can focus on creating ERP-Systems that are as perfect as Whatsapp.

Then SpaceX and Blue Origin will compete to bring your 3D-Printed robot spaceship into space you just simulated in your hyperrealistic Kerbal Space Program. The enabler here is price per kilogram to orbit.

That's where my imagination stops, because it's "the final frontier" and the problems there are really infinitely hard.

sek··on The Streets Were Never Free. Congestion Pricing Finally Makes That Plain
This will be absolutely necessary when cars are self-driving. Instead of parking they will just drift around the block when you buy something for example. Also there will be empty Uber cars drifting around to be close if somebody needs it. On top you won't worry so much about traffic if you can sleep in you car or do something else.

Driving was always limited by the costs of somebody sitting behind the wheel. Look how congested many cities of third world countries are, low labor costs for cab drivers are a factor there.

sek··on Amazon makes 14 cents from every Lyft ride
Are we talking just about machines? A huge chunk of AWS is actually enterprise SAAS.

Analytics, authentication, support etc. you don't know what Lyft uses exactly here from AWS. For example if they use Auth0 instead of Cognito they pay that part to Auth0. AWS prices are very competitive most of the time.

AWS is the Walmart of enterprise IT, they sell you everything else too.

sek··on Self-Driving Cars Might Kill Auto Insurance as We Know It
The best insurer is the one with the most data and ability to analyse it. Nobody can beat the self driving car operator, they need that information anyhow to improve the capabilities of the car.

Interest alignment is also with the self driving company, they have any incentive to improve safety of the car. They are simply liable so they act as an insurer and just add that to the cost of the self driving module.

For the buyer this should remove most need of insurance. Even if there is some "manual mode" the obvious provider would also be the self driving operator. They could track driving behaviour and adjust the rates, or offer some limitations for accident prevention.

So the insurance itself is still there, but it will be less important and shift to the self driving operators. Even if you own a car, you would pay some fee for the self driving module for updates and liability in one package.

I worked for insurance companies. Car insurance is a huge business, but not a very profitable or even sold at a loss. It is often used to get new customers to offer them other more lucrative products. That going away is still a huge shift and those companies are very old and slow.

sek··on AWS Ground Station – Ingest and Process Data from Orbiting Satellites
In simple terms space it not chilly but vacuum, so the heat can't go anywhere.
sek··on SAP’s Sales Army Still Doesn’t Justify an $8B Deal
Your focus is too narrow, you have to look at other industries too.

For example in beverages and fashion the capital needed for production is very limited, it's all about marketing and getting marketshare. Software is a mix where building is not as trivial, but it's for those big companies mostly about positioning and sales. Those industries are much more sensitive about ROI, it's not easy to find ways to spend you money in those areas.

Google/Apple/Facebook are just very profitable companies with in internal investment arm because they don't pay dividends or make huge buybacks, what a traditional company like CocaCola would do with those huge profits.

There are investment companies with hundreds of billions under management, so that's also nothing out of the ordinary. So the money is still invested, those companies don't have their billions on a bank account. Only this way those companies still have access and control over it, for acquisitions for example. Is that a good thing? Probably better than in some random fund owned by some individuals who are much more risk averse.

Tesla is another story, but from an outside perspective it's just very risky. They could've easily went bust if the Model 3 production went south, that's why it's tough for him to raise capital. Not many entities can gamble like that with billions, if it was a sure deal there would easily be enough capital available for Tesla. Look at the balance sheets of mayor car companies, for example Daimler has a quarter of a trillion in assets.

sek··on Salmon Farmers Are Scanning Fish Faces to Fight Killer Lice
This is one area where they optimize, they use vaccines now when they are young instead of antibiotics in their food.

You are talking about dioxins, they use that in the food and they don't have limits like meat for it. They found that it's still pretty close to the limit of meat and if you don't eat it daily it shouldn't be able to accumulate.

They need some of those for the feeding process, but they know it's bad PR and try to find alternatives.

This is something that can be monitored and optimized for.

Btw they are fed mostly with soy and fish flour (salmon is a predator). It's very regulated, Salmon from Norway is a huge brand and they all would have issues that's why it's very regulated.

sek··on Salmon Farmers Are Scanning Fish Faces to Fight Killer Lice
I just watched a nice documentary in German television about it.

The Salmon industry in Norway is a huge billion dollar industry, labor costs there are high so it's dependent on technology.

It's profitable, but also very competitive and every small edge increases it. The ingenuity of optimising every step is inspiring.

It's also in the bigger picture pretty ethical, it satisfies the demand for fish without destroying the natural ecosystems.

sek··on On the global survival of mafias
How you were describing Jews in all those industries is a clear case of antisemitic canard. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antisemitic_canard

They are apparently so powerful they are the "Mafia of the Mafia", no sources just that they are "The Jewish Mafia". Are there Jewish mafiosi? Sure, like a lot of other nationalities and ethnic groups, but I doubt any mafiosi will see them as above them as the "puppet masters of international crime".

You call this intellectually honest?

sek··on On the global survival of mafias
This is antisemitic bullshit. While there has been a small jewish mafia in NY they where a „regular mafia“ like the italian mafia.

Most of them were and are legit and the affinity just coming from jewish immigrants having a history in those fields living in europe. Not for money laundering what you implied. They are very well connected and help each other.

sek··on Fiat is Effective: fiat for the crypto crowd [pdf]
It is believed to be the primary reason for the great depression.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_the_Great_Depression

Deflation or Hyperinflation on the other side is nothing compared to the crises we have today.

They are both a path for disaster, this is the primary fear of economists.

Good explanation: https://www.quora.com/Why-is-2-the-ideal-inflation-rate

sek··on An artificial womb successfully grew baby sheep
This could become a model for space colonization, imagine you only send frozen embryos to another planet that then give birth to humans educated and raised by an AI.

I mean there is a limit how long we can preserve living humans and multi generational ships are very fragile ecosystems.

sek··on Automation is set to hit workers in developing countries hard
This is just not true, never did any current "AI" more than the imagination of it's creators.

What is this mystical "future AI" that makes every software developer or engineer suddenly obsolete. Maybe creative thought requires a brain and nothing will ever beat human reproduction in producing engineers.

sek··on Automation is set to hit workers in developing countries hard
If you think about the amount of problems to solve there are infinite employment opportunities.

Let alone software, there is an infinite amount of ways how stuff can be better and more efficient. The same goes for engineering, as long as stuff costs more than the materials it takes to produce them. Let alone new fields like material science (graphene) or space exploration.

The demand for those jobs will grow even more to make this robot future happen.

The only thing that needs to change is education in those fields. Why can't work the rest of our population in those areas? Just use tools like capital gains tax (the value those robots produce) and direct those funds into education. If you say that's impossible, in theory a person with average intelligence can learn those things by himself with a single computer.

Tell me where the big flaw is here?

sek··on Poorly Secured IoT Devices a Risk to Life and Property, Experts Warn Congress
Actually there are standards for electrical devices too, so it doesn't accidentally burn your house down. IoT needs robust security and update mechanisms.

I just fear that some IoT device also has to burn a house down until something happens. Right now it's just webcams, soon it's ovens which can be exploited easily. This needs to be pushed right now, the stuff is already on the market.

sek··on Apple Is the New Pimco
Yeah, they said "coming in". Where was the money before? There must also be some other investment vehicle where a drain happens.
sek··on A man who was accidentally released from prison 88 years early
If you think about it in Germany he would have gotten a 9 year sentence for something like this. It worked, he was rehabilitated and became an integrated member of society again.

This guy is a good argument against these long sentences, it doesn't make any sense for a society to keep this guy until he dies in prison for taxpayer money (not even considering the cruelty of it). Especially when he didn't commit a murder.

sek··on Ask HN: Automate Stock Trading?
Let's assume your strategies work, then you will earn by a magnitude more by doing this for a trading company than you will ever with your own funds.

You can go down that road, but this a whole full time career and it usually takes years to be good enough at it.

I could recommend this book (http://www.amazon.com/Building-Algorithmic-Trading-Systems-W...) to get an understanding for the craft.

sek··on Excoin exchange's Bitcoins stolen, will be shutting down
I think a trustworthy Bitcoin exchange requires the software development capabilities/requirements similar to a real bank.

The amount of money at stake is probably not he same, but the anonymity of Bitcoin makes up for attractiveness as a target.

AFAIK most smaller banks use third party software/services. Maybe there is a need for a bitcoin exchange software provider that takes care of the critical parts and you build your interface/business on top.

sek··on How Uber’s Autonomous Cars Will Reshape the Economy by 2025
There is already a ton of software in your car that can theoretically just steer in the other direction and accelerate.
sek··on McDouble is 'cheapest and most nutritious food in human history'
Well it's already popular exactly for that reason, independent of the price. It's a simple and easy way to get the required nutrition.

I think that says a lot about the future of the product.

sek··on McDouble is 'cheapest and most nutritious food in human history'
I think it was a missed opportunity, most people who are that poor that calories matter are usually not the ones who do smart planning with their financial resources.
sek··on McDouble is 'cheapest and most nutritious food in human history'
I wait for Soylent being mass produced, that would be an interesting baseline for this question.

I mean there is a point of McDonalds not being 'bad' in general, it's a cheap way to get a full belly if you are living on the street.

Maybe there should be a way to get Soylent for less easily on the street so it can replace the McDouble.

sek··on Facebook is the new AOL
It's just a marketing thing where they offer 1 gig whatsapp traffic (still a cap).

It's like 1000 free minutes, nothing else.

Becoming a virtual provider works with E-Plus, that's why there are very innovative ones in Germany. I use simquadrat.

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