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ryanwaggoneron Dating, education, and sex ratios

In either case, it feels a little overly dramatic to worry too much about a scenario where HR asks you to not use a word anymore. Is this what people mean when they worry about people being cancelled?

ryanwaggoneron Apollo’s Christian Selig explains his fight with Reddit – and why users revolted

I see you making this claim in multiple comments that he's making 600 API requests per user per hour to check for notifications, but this doesn't make sense to me. As you said, 100k users would result in 60 million API requests per hour, which would be about 43 billion API requests per month. I've seen pricing of $0.24 per 1k calls, so that would be $10 million per month, not $20 million per year. And that's just for this notification thing, which he could theoretically kill as a feature if that's 99% of the problem.

I think you're off.

ryanwaggoneron Sources Tell Me Some Messed Up Stuff Is Happening in Commercial Real Estate

This is ridiculous, there aren't going to be trillions in losses from intentional defaults in commercial real estate.

First of all, if it's done intentionally, it's fraud. And if two people have blabbed to random Substack guy, then this would be easy to prove.

Secondly, what exactly is the strategy here? Borrow a ton of money to buy buildings, then default on them and walk away? Where's the profit exactly?

Third, the firms capable of raising this level of capital also care about their reputation and ability to borrow money in the future.

And finally, the buildings won't be worthless when the bank takes them over, they'll just be worth less. To lose trillions here, this would have to happen on a scale of $10 trillion or more? The entire commercial real estate market in the US is only worth like $20 trillion.

ryanwaggoneron Andromeda Cluster: 10 Exaflops* for Startups from Nat Friedman and Daniel Gross

Same guys behind https://aigrant.org, maybe it's mainly as a way to get dealflow?

ryanwaggoneron Mercedes beats Tesla to autonomous driving in California

Skeptical? Because it’s so popular that it’s very hard to get?

ryanwaggoneron Google doesn’t want employees working remotely anymore

Are you in Europe? Because if you're in America, I think you're making jemmyw's point for them...

ryanwaggoneron Apple Vision Pro: Apple’s first spatial computer

No noise cancellation though.

Then it's a completely different product...

ryanwaggoneron First impressions: Yes, Apple Vision Pro works and yes, it’s good

My understanding is that the latency is 12ms, but that's orthogonal to the framerate. You could be updating at 240fps (doubtful, admittedly), but those frames are 12ms delayed from what's entering the camera.

ryanwaggoneron Study: ChatGPT outperforms physicians in quality, empathetic answers to patients

It seemed like the latter to me too, and if so, it's an interesting example of how easy it is to subconsciously anthropomorphize these AIs.

ryanwaggoneron A heat shield for the most important ice on earth

That source absolutely does not claim that sea levels will rise 230 feet by 2100, or anything remotely close to that.

There’s plenty to be concerned about with climate change without making unfounded breathless claims.

ryanwaggoneron LSD: Not Even Once

Sounds like you should write a book!

ryanwaggoneron OpenAI’s CEO says the age of giant AI models is already over

Isn’t it obvious? Q is definitely an LLM, trained on trillions of words exfiltrated from our nation’s secure systems. This explains why it’s always wrong in its predictions: it’s hallucinating!

ryanwaggoneron Samsung considers moving to Bing as default search engine

My point wasn’t about the market share, it was that you decided to be condescending about not having relevant data, and then you also failed to provide any :)

ryanwaggoneron Community is the future of AI: Blog post and community discussion

It sounds like he’s suggesting that AI will open up a huge new pool of amateur developers, and those developers will need a community to turn to to know how to leverage AI.

But that kinda ignores the impact that AI will have on the concept of the SO community, or whether they’ll even be a need for it.

I honestly think his take is a misread of what kind of “community” SO has. My use of SO has always been 99% functional and borderline mercenary. I’m not getting to know anyone, I’m not building relationships, I just need a question answered. There’s nothing sticky about this community other than it being a good place to get those questions answered. As soon as AI can do that, I’ll never return to that “community”, and I’ll miss it as much as I miss Yahoo Answers.

ryanwaggoneron Community is the future of AI: Blog post and community discussion

Has there ever been a case of a company the size of SO deciding that, given their skills and culture, they’re just going to wind the company down rather than try and compete in a new technical arena that they’re entirely unsuited for? I’d respect that.

I don’t know if what he’s suggesting here makes sense (I tend to think no), but I’m automatically a little skeptical of the typical response to a serious threat: “no way, y’all, this is actually good for us!”

Imagine google coming out right now and saying the future of AI is search ads.

ryanwaggoneron Samsung considers moving to Bing as default search engine

The only "data" I see there is a couple survey results from 2016.

ryanwaggoneron Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

Journalists don't always work off of public statements.

ryanwaggoneron Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

Car crashes aren't typically included in "violent deaths", because the definition of "violence" typically includes intent: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Violence

ryanwaggoneron Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

Two quick things:

First, you apparently missed this paragraph:

Rather, Lee and Momeni were portrayed by police as being familiar with one another. In the wee hours of April 4, they were purportedly driving together through downtown San Francisco in a car registered to the suspect.

Doesn't sound to me like the reporter is just speculating based on the LinkedIn profile.

Secondly, I'm pretty sure you have the wrong filing. The LinkedIn profile says "Inc", not "LLC", so I think it's probably file #4776106, which is still active, and registered with an address in Emeryville, which is where police were headed to arrest Momeni.

ryanwaggoneron Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

You might want to start by reading the story before you try and dismantle it. A few paragraphs later:

ryanwaggoneron I’ve been single all my life

Does that article use “single” to mean someone who isn’t married? Because that leaves out a lot of partnered people.

Pew reports 31% of Americans are unpartnered, and of those, half are looking and half aren’t: https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2020/08/20/a-profi...

ryanwaggoneron Laid-off tech workers choose stability over status

Widespread PHP at a FAANG has to be Facebook, right?

ryanwaggoneron Why human societies developed so little during 300k years

Who is this person and why should I care about their musings? The fields of anthropology and evolutionary psychology have enough controversy and differing opinions among the experts to waste time reading overly confident conjectures from some rando who doesn’t even give their last name.

ryanwaggoneron Meta paid VR developers exorbitant salaries. It's now in financial trouble

*woe

ryanwaggoneron Show HN: Chrome extension to improve productivity with ChatGPT

Yeah, it weirded me out too, but I have a little trouble identifying why. Maybe I just don't like this level of anthropomorphizing of AI?

I wonder if you could do a series of different named robots instead of people?

ryanwaggoneron 2023 Hyundai Ioniq 6 First Drive: Effortlessly Good, Near-Slam Dunk on Tesla

Where did you get the idea that the M3 LR is $48k? Not only can you not even order it anymore, but the last price I can find for it is $56k [1]. $48k doesn't even make any sense, since the LR is AWD and the regular range AWD version is $53k.

1. https://electrek.co/2023/03/09/2023-tesla-prices-how-much-do...

ryanwaggoneron Show HN: Chrome extension to improve productivity with ChatGPT

That's pretty rude.

ryanwaggoneron What it feels like to work in AI right now

I have some scrapers built in Scrapy, and from my experimentation with GPT4, I bet you could paste in your scraper code, the html source from the website in question (at least the relevant part), and tell GPT4 to update your scraper and you'd get something that's at least 95% correct within 30 seconds.

ryanwaggoneron Ask HN: What's your best resource for keeping up-to-date on AI developments?

This is a good question for ChatGPT

ryanwaggoneron Show HN: Machato — A native macOS client for ChatGPT

How do you use it? I’ve been trying to change my habits to use it more, but some of those grooves are pretty deep and it just doesn’t come to mind.