What it feels like to work in AI right now
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I’ve been shown some neat pictures people made that they thought were cool. I don’t know that I need this every day.
I’ve seen examples of “write an email to my boss”. It would take me longer to explain to ChatGPT what I want than to write these myself.
I’ve seen “write a snippet of code” demos. But I hardly care about this compared to designing a good API; or designing software that is testable, extensible, maintainable, and follows reasonable design principles.
In fact, no one in my extended sphere of friends and family has asked me anything about chatGPT, midjourney, or any of these other models. The only people I hear about these models from are other tech people.
I can see that these models are significantly better than anything before, but I can’t see yet the “killer app”. (For comparison, I don’t remember anyone in my orbit predicting search or social networking being killer apps for the internet—but we all expected things like TV and retail sales to book online.)
What am I missing?
In short, humans kinda suck. LLMs also kinda suck, but faster than humans.
Agreed, but that's part of my critique. These systems are written by humans and are trained with barely curated data generated by humans. There is the concept of emergence, but I'm not sure how emergence suddenly fixes a terrible foundation full of biases and errors.
It's correct enough to pass the bar exam, medical exams, it scores 90-93 percentile on the SAT. This is way more complex and efficient than what you make it to be imo.
So is Google Search, and we had that for a long time now. Is a slightly different and more verbose UI really a game changer?
(Let's ignore the fact that Google Search is broken from all the SEO spam and monetization. Especially when we have no evidence that ChatGPT is any more resitant to this than Google was.)
I hooked GPT-4 up to a shell and asked it to use the GPT-3.5-turbo completions API (not in the dataset), and it successfully did it through trial and error with curl and error messages. This example is of course not something you would actually do regularly, but rather shows that you don't need a lot of context for it to do useful things right now. With a complete explanation of the OpenAI endpoints, it would most likely make the request perfectly on the first try.
'only answer the following questions and use these API endpoints doing the task'.
Now you have a multi lingual human Isabel Interface.
Have you seen the Wolfram alpha examples?
Think of it as a natural language interface to anything that has an API.
At least they’re less obsessed with apes than last summer…
I use ChatGPT to understand these concepts, their background, and to bridge the gap between them.
Getting to the bottom of what Jean Baudrillard really was saying in "Simulacra and Simulation" and applying that to what Larry Wall meant when he said that Perl is the first postmodern language is really something!
Instead, pay attention to how industries and people redefine themselves. There are going to be winners and losers.
It’s the use cases these thing enable that are important.
Today, I wrote a draft product announcement. Only after I was done did I realize I had written it in a really impersonal third person (“users will be able to”). No big deal, but maybe 10-20 minutes of work to make it energetic and second person (“now you can…”).
30 seconds with chatgpt. “Rewrite with more energy, in the second person, using best practices for announcements”).
Six months ago I would never have asked for that. Today it was glorious and let me move on to focus on more important things.
Maybe I should just ask ChatGPT to explain it to me…
It seems like it's potential as of today is increasing or seeming to increase the productivity of a segment of white collar workers in the fashion that email and the web did (or might not have). A lot of researchers might not have need for this and so not understand this appeal of this.
One of the best examples so far for me (and it's truly micro) was at grocery store. Friend trying to figure out how big of a rice bag to get and avoid not finishing it before a long trip coming up. She knew she ate a couple of cups dry a week.
"I eat 2 cups dry rice per week. Can I finish a 25lb bag in less than 4 months?" "Yes" (it did show its work).
One shot, perfect response. I know this kind of computational thing is what WolframAlpha was for, but that wasn't nearly as reliable. I know I could figure it out myself, but I'd need to find a reasonable figure for the density of rice and probably do some imperial metric conversions and generally futz around for longer than one would want to stand in front of a pallet of rice bags.
Maybe this is one of those examples where this tool gives a confident and wrong answer even when it shows its homework?
I expect that this will move lots of things into the world of text that weren't before.
With blockchains there was also a fundamental technological breakthrough (I'd argue less revolutionary than LLMs). The problem was that everyone jumped the gun and proclaimed the killer app had been discovered too soon: cryptocurrency's incarnations to date have yet to demonstrate much utility apart from being a vehicle for speculation. Nakomoto invented the first distributed blockchain in 2008...
OpenAI revolutionized… rewriting things with slightly different wording?
I’ve seen so many breathless people posting “this would have taken me so long to search” and then I type 3 keywords from their massive prompt they crafted and find it instantly on Google. We’re talking 1000x or more faster. I feel like the same is happening in your comment. How often have I thought “damn I wish I wrote this blog post ever so slightly differently” in my life? Maybe a handful of times? And yes I’m including all generalizations of that question.
But certainly fake girlfriends and summarization will be mid size fields. Image generation has some mid size potential. But these will be spread between many companies.
I really think it has uses no doubt, but is it a revolution? Where? It’s not creative in the valuable sense - media, art, fashion, etc all will adopt it marginally but ultimately it will actually only serve to further the desire for genuine human experience, and cohesive creativity that we see it really falls flat at. It saves some marginal time perhaps if you’re ok sounding like a robot.
Taking into account the downsides it looks like a hype bubble right now to me, and a draw in the long run. There’s just a whole lot of tech people trying to cash in on the hype.
Techies will realize that they are just giving ideas to O̶p̶e̶n̶AI.com, Microsoft Word, Google Docs and Notion. It is just the same AI bros re-selling their hallucinating snake oil chatbot that are under a new narrative for AI.
There is a reason why the only safe serious use-case of LLMs is summarization of existing text, since everything else it does is untrustworthy and is complete bullshit.
Their so-called 'revolution' is a grift.
It doesn't cover everything OneNote 2016 did, but it does a lot more in other areas and it is progressing nicely.
Summarization of existing text is the *only* safe and serious use-case for LLMs.
The use-case is anything where occasional bullshit output is an acceptable downside to speeding up. More reliable outputs will enable more use-cases.
Want a flat-earther version of New York Times (The New York Flat Times)? Done. Want a just slightly insidiously fascist version of NPR? Done. Want a pro-Nato version of RussiaToday (WestRussiaToday)? Done.
And we already know people share stuff without checking for veracity and reliability first.
0: https://www.bing.com/create
作成 *芸術* 開始日
AI を使用した単語Well, who's laughing now?
Right now, they are definitely useful time savers, but they need a lot of handholding. Eventually, someone will figure out how to get hundreds of LLMs supervising teams of millions of LLMs to do some really wild stuff that is currently completely impossible.
You could spin up a giant staff the way we do servers now. There has to be a world changing application of that.
This is an intuitive direction. In fact, it’s so intuitive that it’s a little bit odd that nobody seems to have made proper progress with LLM swarm computation.
So again, what is the actual difference you are imagining?
Or is it just that distributed X is fashionable?
Just because the swarm infrastructure hosting an LLM has higher latency across certain paths does not make it a swarm of LLMs.
Interesting, I haven't heard of that. Can you name examples?
If 80% of the processors in a cluster are running 'general LLM' and 20% are running 'math LLM' are they the same cluster? Could you host the cluster in a different data center? What if you want to test different math LLM modules out with the general intelligence?
In the case of the brain, while certain functional regions are highly specialized I would not consider them "a small separate brain". Functional regions are not sub-organs.
One LLM is limited, one obvious limitation is its context window. Using a swarm of LLMs that each do a little task can alleviate that.
We do it too and it's called delegation.
Edit: BTW, "swarm" is meaningless with LLMs. It can be the same instance, but prompted differently each time.
Better to limit his incompetence to one position.
So, perhaps, there aren't swarms yet just because there are easier ways to scale for now?
For the same reason one genius human does not suddenly need less support staff, they actually need more.
Edit: and why it isn’t here yet is because it’s new and hard.
It's early days. There will be a GPT 5 I'm sure, maybe that one will be better at teamwork.
> get hundreds of LLMs supervising teams of millions of LLMs
What does this mean or what can you do with this setup… do you mean running LLMs in parallel?
Please don't. You've already ruined enough industries. Let the MBAs do finance and Wall Street and leave them out of the chain of command in organizations that make things.
Yes, some MBAs fuck things up. Just like some CS grads fuck things up. But advocating against the study of business is just as naive as advocating against the study of computer science just because there are some bad CS grads.
Are you contending that business were not successful before Wharton started pumping out MBAs?
> But advocating against the study of business is just as naive as advocating against the study of computer science
I didn't say 'don't study business', I said 'stick to finance'. MBAs tend to end up destroying innovation and productivity for short term growth and stats.
Jack Welch showed what a successfully motivated 'business oriented' leader can do to an innovative and productive legacy organization when given complete control over it. The MBAs happen to just do it on a smaller scale.
Criticizing garbage MBA programs is not criticizing the study of business. Business schools don't study business. They're a place where people make a lot of money selling theories about business that are useless at best and it many places, quite harmful. Learning about business by going to business school is like learning to kiss by reading books about kissing.
I would say that just as every person is unique so is every company unique. And just as there is plenty of pseudoscience plaguing psychology so are MBAs full of pseudoscience. Two fields that are far too obsessed with generalising their advice. Which is not to say that there aren't any useful ideas in these fields. But the vitriolic reaction above is warranted.
The human brain can hold much more than 9 things and even though AI will be used in medicine broadly very soon, I really want the final diagnosis done by a human.
Once true AGI arrieves, I might change my opinion, but that might take a while.
We have been hearing this since forever.
Revolutions do happen but not the way we expect. My anecdotical experience: no one in my team of about 30 people developing SW uses ChatGPT or similar in their day to day. This may change, or not.
Granted, currently deployed systems are mostly awful, way behind the state of the art, and therefore mostly useless. Maybe it's because designing medical devices and getting them approved takes so long. Maybe it's because the manufacturers put AI in there for marketing purposes only, while assuming nobody will use the suggestiona anyway. In any case, I strongly expect the trend to continue and these systems to become very useful quite soon.
Try writing a number from one piece of paper to another. If it's more than 7-9 numbers, you won't do it in one shot, unless you spend extra time memorizing it.
I’m proficient at math, but my working memory is around 6, so I cannot add two three digit numbers to each other in my head (unless I see numbers to be added in front of me).
I will. As another commenter says, the brain isn't limited to 9 things at all. There's no way that I'll trust the diagnosis of a machine that won't understand me.
If a doctor uses AI to help with research, that would be OK. Just so long as the doctor is actually the one doing the diagnosis and prescribing the treatment.
That is just the introduction, showcasing what level of sophistication you get with just Google and Wikipedia as tools
Now imagine task rabbit or fiver as tools. Ai can make things happen in the real worlds.
These llm have limited attention but infinite focus. You can parallelize them, you can have one direct a fleet of other llm, you can have llm checking input and outputs for correctness from the other models and feedback that information to the controlling model so that it can improve the promp to the other as it tries to reach it's goal
And the goal can be far fetching (manufacture fake artsy trinket and import them from China to distribute etsy) or nefarious (produce subtle propaganda in a moltitude of wordpress website, register accounts on Wikipedia, reddit, create a sophisticate network of citations)
Seems I and you have different Googles and you still have the one I had pre 2010.
For over a decade now, Google has been including things I never asked about to the point where it would sometimes be easier to find it using Marginalia.
Some say it is just because internet has changed and there is less ham and more spam, but the last few months I have been using Kagi and it proves it is possible to create a better search experience.
And, if Google works for you, fine. Maybe you search other topics, use other keywords or are in another bucket wrt experiments, but from my perspective Google is now the same as its predecessors.
For politics shopping and some other topics it can be terrible, but I don’t think GPT is good at those either.
I’m actually happy to be proven wrong here. If you have some examples let’s test it out. If it’s a true step function improvement I’d expect it to be easy to source examples.
Let me repeat that: You can program GPT in English. ENGLISH!
You're complaining about the first nuclear test bomb being impractical and uninteresting. How will this change the world? That huge monstrosity had to be affixed to the top of a test gantry and took years of effort by a veritable army of the best and brightest to make! No way it could change war, or geopolitics, or anything. No way..
This is the day after Trinity. The bomb has gone off. A lot of physicists are very excited, some are terrified, and the military is salivating. The politicians are confused and scared, and the general public doesn't even know yet.
That doesn't mean the world hasn't changed, forever.
What does that mean to "program GPT"? Do you mean program (software) USING GPT?
I thought we already had COBOL, which is pretty much like English so business people can use it. Same for SQL.
And don't we already have lots of low-code or no-code tools? Why do we need to program with ChatGPT if we already are beyond programming?
Not in the sense that you get a computer program out (though you can), but in the sense that it can automate anything without even needing a programming language, compiler, and domain specific UX.
Low code and no-code tools still require thinking like a programmer. You define what you need to do, then implement, then get results. GPT often lets you go directly from spec to results.
If the goal is programming, GPT is nothing special. If the goal is quickly reasoning over very abstract instructions, it’s amazing.
The trick is seeing the new use cases. It really does come back to the GUI revolution: if you want to list files in a directory, the CLI is just as good, maybe better. But GUI makes photoshop possible.
GPT makes it possible to say “summarize the status emails I sent over the past year, with one section per quarter and three bullet points per section”. And the magic is that is the programming.
A sibling comment already explained the second part of the question, but there is something I find more exciting. You can program GPT, as in you can tell it to change its behavior. The innumerable "jail break" prompts are just programs written in English which modify GPT itself. Like macros in lisp I guess. The first time I truly saw this potential was when someone showed me you don't actually have to change the temperature of chatGPT in code, you can just tell it to give low and high temperature answers in the prompt[1]. That's programming the model itself in english.
> Let me repeat that: You can program GPT in English. ENGLISH!
How?
Let me repeat that: How?
I had a little script that from time to time parses a list of jobs from a specific board, extracts some categories, inserts them into an SQLite and have a frontend that displays them to me in a way I want.
The board has since changed some things which would mean maybe 2 hours of commitment from me to update the script.
How do I program GPT in English. ENGLISH! To do that for me? What are the steps involved? I've been using ChatGPT and GPT-4 for awhile and I can't imagine what the steps are to make this happen without a lot of back and forth. I can't imagine how to program the infrastructure. I can't imagine how the API endpoint is more than a fancy autocomplete. I need help understanding what it means that I can program it in ENGLISH! (I can also program it in my country's language for what it's worth).
> That doesn't mean the world hasn't changed, forever.
I sort of agree with this.
> Auto-GPT is an experimental open-source application showcasing the capabilities of the GPT-4 language model. This program, driven by GPT-4, autonomously develops and manages businesses to increase net worth. As one of the first examples of GPT-4 running fully autonomously, Auto-GPT pushes the boundaries of what is possible with AI.
Perhaps this is the part you're missing. When I've watched people program with ChatGPT it _is_ a lot of back and forth because an enormous amount of context is able to be stored and back referenced. I.e. one wouldn't say "make me a Flappy Bird clone for iOS", they'd start with:
"Give me the code for a starter SpriteKit project". Then
"Now draw a sprite from bird.png and place it in the center of the screen".
"Now make it so the bird sprite will fall as if it's affected by gravity"
I won't bore anyone with how might one go from that all the way to a simple game, but I'm sure you see the idea. There are obviously _huge_ limitations to this approach and professionals will get hit them fast, but the proof is in the pudding: people who can barely code are producing real software through this approach. It's happening.
I've tried to build a lot of fun stuff with it so far. Haven't been able to properly 'program it in English' for anything non-trivial. Back and forth ended up in loops of not what I wanted. I'm just utterly confused at the difference in experiences I've had with it vs. what some people are preaching.
> There are obviously _huge_ limitations to this approach and professionals will get hit them fast, but the proof is in the pudding: people who can barely code are producing real software through this approach. It's happening.
I've had 4 product people I know try to create products using ChatGPT. All 4 of them basically got stuck on the first steps of whatever they were trying to do. "Where do I have to put this code?", "How do I put it online?", "How do I store user data?", "Where do I get a database from?". Basic questions to any professional, but to them it was impossible to overcome the obstacles from code to deployment.
I don't doubt that it's happening and it will become better in the future; I'm just having a hard time trying to grasp where some people are coming from when my experience as a professional, using it, has been mixed.
expectations: using to the LLM to break problems into steps, suggest alternatives, using the LLM to help them think through the problem. I think this is the people using it to write emails - myself included, having a loop to dial in the letter allows me to write the letter without the activation energy needed to stare at a blank page
empathy: people who've spent enough time interacting with an LLM get to know how to boss it around. I think some people are able to put themselves in the LLMs shoes and imagine how to steer the attention into a particular semantic subspace where the model has enough context to say something useful.
GPT4 writes boilerplate python and javascript servers for me in one shot because I ask for precisely what I want and tell it what tools to use - I think because I have dialed in my expectation for what it's capable of and I learned how to ask in precise language, I get to be productive with GPT4's code output. Here's a transcript: https://poe.com/lookaroundyou/1512927999932108
Link: https://github.com/kaegi/alass
It's basically magic.
For problems that are fine being defined ambiguously. Try to program a database in English, let's see where it goes.
Meanwhile, if you give Chat GPT your database schema and ask it to write a SQL query for a report, it can do that for you.
Nonetheless, it could prove useful for looking up algorithms, patterns, and generating boilerplate code. However, an important issue is will it generate similar code if queried at a later time? Not likely, which will make it less useful or result in an inconsistent codebase. Maybe you can request a version of the code generation? In-house code generators will generate consistent code, so it will be interesting to see how it is used in real projects.
https://gist.github.com/int19h/4f5b98bcb9fab124d308efc19e530...
Note that in this case it isn't even asked to write specific queries for specific tasks - it's just given one high-level task and the schema to work with.
You're right, though, that the effectiveness of this approach depends very much on schema design and things like descriptive table/column names etc (and even then sometimes you have to make it more explicit than a human would need). You really need to design the schema around the capabilities of the model for best results, which makes it that much harder to integrate with legacy stuff. Similarly, not all representations of data work equivalently well - originally, I gave the model direct access to the typed object graph, and it handles that much worse than SQL. So if your legacy software has a data model that is not easy to map to relational, too bad.
On the other hand, GPT-4 is already vastly better at this kind of task than GPT-3.5, so I think we can't assume that this will remain a limitation with larger models.
This may end up being a feature of some high level frameworks … “compatible with ChatGPT” or “designed to work with xxx LLM”.
Perhaps I could interest you in some Radium Water? It's new and trendy and good for your health.
If your prompt is garbage then the output will be garbage and if you don't know how to program you won't even realize the output was garbage.
It's not the language part of programming language that is hard. It's the programming part because it means you have to have a good understanding of what you want. Just like a human programmer won't read your mind an AI programmer won't read your mind either.
But I can already foresee bosses dismissing employees that raise issues (performance, maintainability, scalability, etc., etc.) by saying "Look, the AI can do it. So if it can do it you can do it too.". I foresee this because I have already seen it.
That's why it makes this so interesting - this type of automation impacts our jobs directly. Of course, I'm not sure who would use this in a corporate codebase without legal concerns.
The very existence of "prompt engineering", numerous discussions about how to prompt ChatGPT in order to get the result you want, etc. imply that while it may be in English, it still requires similar care and attention to do properly as a programming language does.
Which makes me wonder what the advantage of using English is. A formal language seems like it would be more productive and accurate.
The advantage of using English (natural language that is), the humans around you tend to speak it. I don't naturally speak powershell. Instead I want a script that searches for particular filenames, under a particular size, between a particular date in a directory path I specify. I told GPT I wanted that and in a few seconds it dumped out what I needed. It wrote the script in a formal language, which is then interpreted by the machine in an even more formal manner. Let the code deal with accuracy, and lets let language models argue back and forth with humans on intent.
This is true, but of limited utility. English is so bad at this sort of thing that even native-speaking humans are constantly misunderstanding each other. Especially when it comes to describing things and giving instructions.
That's why we have more formal languages (even ignoring programming languages) for when we need to speak with precision.
As far as formal languages... GPT doesn't know Lojban well, presumably because of its very small presence in the training data (and dearth of material in general). But it would be interesting to see how training on that specifically would turn out.
Yes, and with people, that's insufficient if you really need confidence of understanding.
There's a reason that lawyers speak legalese, doctors speak medicalese, etc. These are highly structured languages to minimize confusion.
Even in less technical interactions, when you need to be sure that you understand what someone else is saying, you are taught to rephrase what they said and tell it back to them for confirmation. And there's still a large margin of error even then.
This is why, whenever I have an important conversation at work, I always send an email to the person telling them what I understood from our exchange. In part to check if I understood correctly, but also so that I have a record of the exchange to cover my ass if things go sideways because we didn't understand each other, but thought we did.
I don't know any other library I could just use with this task with nearly the same quality besides some regex soup.
- summary of all the carbon neutral concrete methods, especially ones that can be done in a small industrial workshop as a prototype
- I have allergies in Thailand, mid-february. What may it be related to?
- list all the companies from Japanese stock exchange that have high debt rate
Those are top of my head, but really anything that is either a super-specific niche, or requires merging a few niches together, Google won't help you with.
Humans are really gullible for the appearance of confidence. And humans are also very prone to wishful thinking.
It's not just one clean answer and we're done. In my experience it is helpful in breaking the problem down into stuff you can Google.
Yeah I can see that being useful. I’ve also seen a lot of non-technical people straight up accept whatever comes out of it, so that’s a little worrying. It’s true of Google searches too, of course, but at least a google search gives N results someone can check rather than 1.
With the example questions I provided, it would take many hours to do research on the subject. GPT provided initial answers instantly, and then fact checking was easy.
That’s what we did with gpt-3. With plugins you can have gpt fact-check itself.
Also, if you have a system for dedicated knowledge, you can use embeddings - with embeddings gpt has very little room for hallucinations, and it can provide detailed references.
100% agree and so glad to see someone else say it. I feel like people are losing their minds every time we go through the same hamster wheel.
To hear first hand, in the article above, the effect this is having on ML engineers breaks my heart.
Yes, if you try hard enough, you can try to cast transformational shifts as trifling.
- e.g. “Barteen, Shockley , and Brittain made a smaller version of the vacuum tube.” (transistors)
- “Scientists discovered that light could carry information, like electrical wires do.” (fiber-optics)
The effects (including the harder to measure cultural shifts) matter more than some uncharitable characterization.
Also, the “it is not X” thinking is the result of present fixation. Such argumentation is, at best, quite narrow. Perhaps applicable in specific defined markets and situations but hardly a good mindset for making sense of how the world is changing. Hence the cliché, “The Stone Age didn’t end because we ran out of stone.”
The psychological undertones in the comment above are probably “people, stop exaggerating”. From one overreaction to another, it seems.
However, once you actually start using it and see that the "ten minute walk" is actually an hour walk, or that a full third of the attractions it has shepherded you to are permanently closed, you realize that building that itinerary yourself from scratch using Google or TripAdvisor would take you less time than manually double checking everything ChatGPT says.
It's also quite surprising that people still think ChatGPT is capable of logic. Even for a complete layperson, all it takes is asking it to draw someone's family tree as an ASCII chart to see that text prediction only goes so far and there's not enough of a relational concept in there to comprise knowledge. There are many examples of asking it to solve famous puzzles with minor variations where it fails spectacularly.
The marketing behind ChatGPT is genius, but there is only so far you can go before the honeymoon is over and people start to really question what you brought to the table. Aside from that, ChatGPT isn't unique in what it can do, and others (including open source) are catching up fast.
That being said, I'd still use it for something like language learning (and other types of learning), where follow up queries (such as why you'd use one word instead of another, or how to rephrase something to be more polite) unlock a significant amount of value. It can also be useful to write trivial code, though I doubt a serious professional would do this (for several reasons, such as privacy and liability). Ultimately, ChatGPT fits squarely under "tool" and not under "intelligence".
It seems that as of right now, the killer app of ChatGPT is the boost in views you get by putting it in the title of your YouTube video.
You mention blogging from the standpoint of writing it all yourself, and then using a tool to tweak it. That's not the revolutionary part. It's collaborating with the tool to write the post.
This is definitely the case with cover letters for jib applications. The ones written by GPT appear to be pretty obvious - my guesses could be wrong, but after seeing most applications not having a cover letter for years to most applications having one over the past few months, I suspect GPT is involved, and there's a distinct 'style' that seems to be showing up.
Using GPT could be the 'bootstrap ui' of product announcements. It looks great on its own, but put it next to a bunch of other companies and they all fail to stand out.
The “correctness” of it is a definite give away IMO.
I am sure it can at least do very common mistakes like it's vs its or "would of" if prompted right since there's a huge body of that kind of work. Or maybe a human needs to add the finishing touches to make it look more human. :)
For more general queries its "house style" tends to be really obvious, with all it's "however, it's important to note" and "ultimately it depends on"s and the tendency to flesh out a one sentence answer to the specific question with two paragraphs or five bullet points of detail at a slight tangent to it...
On one hand the duplicities involved with writing a chatgpt cover letter seem to be concerning in a new hire. On the other hand, it shows resourcefulness and going above the line.
I’m tempted to say I’d prefer the gpt cover letter candidate, simply to talk to them about how they got the idea and how they executed, but I’m curious if you feel the same way.
However, I would have zero issue if they used chatgpt to help compose their CV.
Most of the rest is high-touch. People want interactions with humans for important stuff, not with AI. Remote teaching was an unmitigated disaster for most school students: how will AI teachers do, do you think? Attempts at robot police and security guards haven't gone down very well to date. It'll be a while before there are AI EMTs and firemen.
So there are grounds for skepticism.
I've used this part of ChatGPT before. Incredibly useful for getting the syntax of some library that you're going to use once in your life, then never again.
Had a sysadmin mate do something similar to generate a simple Chrome plugin for internal use at his work.
That alone justifies the price for ChatGPT Plus, IMO.
With ChatGPT it takes a few minutes. It can add up quite dramatically when you have a bunch of these kinds of tasks on the todo list. It does feel revolutionary to me as a productivity enhancer.
LLM have proven to be great as a gimmick or making rather okay localized approximations. You can create a good enough image without any designing skills, or have auto-completion on steroids. However, there is no proof that this same tech can extrapolate to the next level.
Most startups are putting their eggs on this single basket. I have the feeling that this will be what triggers another AI winter and some VCs will holding the bags... but why do I care?
At this point, as an AI researcher, I guess you'd just have to sit back and watch is all unfold, very soon everything you do is obsolete almost immediately.
As it stands, we can't even get the Mark Metaverse right. You are trying to convince me that we have the infra. for AGI? Not convinced.
Secondly it wasn't obvious that deep learning was going to work as well as it did if you simply threw enough compute at it. Now that this tech has reached critical mass there is a tonne more money being poured into infra to support it.
Lastly, compute power is increasing as always. Nvidia releasing H100 and also their recent work on computational lithography. Also DeepMind finding new state-of-the-art algorithms for doing matrix multiplication with AlphaTensor. You can kinda already see the positive feedback loop in action.
I dunno... at this point I just wouldn't bet against the trajectory that we're on.
If it's at all possible to improve our technology then we will. If we improve it it increases in utility. If it increases in utility we use it more.
What other thesis is there?
Now, obviously the models have got hugely better in capabilities since BERT. Everything else has advanced. Tweaking, tuning and scaling have delivered true intelligence, albeit sub-human. But it seems unlikely that transformers are what take us to human-parity AGI and beyond, because the more we optimize these word predictors the more we find their limitations.
The lack of architecture changes over the last 6 years creates a huge amount of “potential energy”. A new model architecture might well push us over the human-parity threshold. It wouldn’t surprise me if I wake up one day to find that transformers are obsolete and Google has trained a human-parity AGI with a new arch.
This could happen tomorrow or in 20 years, transformers had an easy discovery path from RNNs, to RNNs with attention mechanisms, to Transformers. Architecture X seems to have a much more obscure discovery path.
It would be wrong though not to keep an very close eye on it or also to embrace it because if it will not just happen in the next 20 years you still need to earn money and with expertise in ml you might be better of
This is the single greatest leap in productivity we’ve had in the last 100 years.
Last week, I used GPT-4 to write my code. Later, I used it to analyze 100+ websites and come up with a personalized pitch for a relevant plugin/product idea - something that would have taken me 100+ hours.
Did it go scrape stuff for you or did already have the data or did you paste in the website data?
Even before that you could hack something together. I told it how to request an image be included in responses - it includes [fluffy unicorn], I parse that out, feed it to another GPT to get a better description, then feed that to DALL-E to get the image to include
In some cases the impact might be enormous, and in others perhaps less so. One thing is for sure, the models are getting more capable, and along with that people are investing time/effort/money into improving their capability to leverage what the models can do.
It’s also a massive skill multiplier. It can turn someone with a 3-6 months knowledge of a discipline equivalent to someone with 2-3 years (or even more) in the field.
I'm doing similar things, and wondering how other people handle it.
Web3 or crypto didn't disrupt markets.
Chatgpt or let's say ml already did and there is no writing on the wall it will stop. Contrary it shows how much potential there is and how excited a lot of people are.
We have already ml now in office, in bing, in Google workspace. There is midjourney, SD etc.
You can find ml generated porn pictures.
We have constantly news about advantages in multiple ml fields.
This is so different to crypto and stuff.
- write and explain me more optimised algorithms for certain cryptographic operations
- explain funny mathy bits of papers that I don’t understand
- plan me a few days of activities for a city holiday
So far it’s been great on all accounts!! I was able to get a faster turnaround time in understanding the papers than I would if I were probing a colleague
> write and explain me more optimised algorithms for certain cryptographic operations
This domain in particular strikes me as a poor choice for this approach. "Don't roll your own crypto... but definitely don't let a language model roll it for you, either"
Re: crypto algorithms, the quert in question was implementing exponentiation for arbitrary sized integers. My own implementation was taking until the heat death of the universe to finish for big integers and I didn’t want to just copypasta an impl from elsewhere.
ChatGPT‘s worked flawlessly and it was able to explain me certain tricks it used in depth (which I could independently verify from other sources).
Would I ship it to prod? Not without a security audit, but that ought to be the case regardless when rolling your own (or even someone else‘s) cryptography :)
Right...?
I talked about snippets of papers to work collueges. Chatgpt can do the same thing.
And why wouldn't it? It's only here to help me to find something I can use for further understanding/googling.
Having to fact-check every thing it says feels a bit exhausting.
A bit like talking to a version of Albert Einstein with dementia or alzheimers, who can still say really intelligent things but mixes in subtle bullshit.
"A computer is a machine that moves data around and only occasionally performs computation on it." ;-)
Computers aren't great, because they can compute numbers faster, they're great because we've managed to encode text, audio, video, geospatial, etc. information as numbers, which allowed us to perform complex text, audio, video, geospatial, etc. operations.
https://gist.github.com/int19h/6fa34a86923cd681396393b21b9ab...
- Language learning... The ability to improvise realistic conversations is huge. I can ask to talk about cooking a specific dish or a sport!
- As others have noted, refining documents similar to grammarly
- Looking for a product with extremely specific features (though it isn't very good at comparing yet)
- Searches that are too vague and complicated to articulate to a search engine or use exact matching ...
GPT-4 feels like a team of really capable human interns.
The potential really goes wild once you connect it to the internet and use stuff like autoGPT
I've been struggling to reconcile my personal experience with what I'm reading - it was so strange reading such dismissive comments by such a knowledgeable community about a new technology that's such an obvious game changer.
GPT-3.5 was easy to dismiss, but GPT-4 is incredible.
[1] www.deepl.com
With GPT-3 it infers things like gender and formality from earlier context.
Not clear yet how good GPT-4 is as OpenAI won’t say what training data it has, even rough volumes, in each human language.
Needs some thorough research testing it.
I do not notice a significant improvement between new models and last year's deepl/Google translate.
For me its less the capabilities of LLMs, but the speed and the inevitability of change. You can choose to ignore it, but you soon will be outdated then. Just like if someone would try to work an office job without using digital machines. Maybe you can still do it, but who would hire you?
First time I tried chatgpt with Hungarian it actually refused to work, so I'm not sure it can be that much better.
Need to write a speech as a best man
Write a eulogy for a deceased family member
Recently used it to speed up the time to fix an oauth problem in code I didnt write, knowing nothing about oauth. Replaces stackexchange with much more tailored answers.
can take hundreds of pages of text and distill it down to an executive summary of any length
Daughter uses it to explain how to solve algebra problems, not just give an answer. Will completely change education.
Marketing using it for all content. Devs hate writing blog posts, it will take some code as an input and write a blog post about what it does. Can use it to come up with questions to seed a podcast
Paralegals are virtually redundant. AI with all legal caselaw making it much easier
HR using it to write customized offer letters, review resumes, etc.
It isnt just about asking a question and getting an answer. You can keep adding context and the answers keep getting better.
This is the kind of breathless claim that no doubt fuels the skeptics.
None of the context windows are large enough for "hundreds of pages" nor "executive summaries of any length".
I did believe that it's possible to make LLMs do that kind of task with significant engineering effort to make it do summaries iteratively somehow, essentially "compressing" parts of the document recursively. But it's not something that you can just give to ChatGPT and have it work.
So yes, the hype is real, in both ways: there's lots of potential to explore over the next years, but also a lot of the claims you read today are not sufficiently hedged, which makes them look outlandish.
The point is that it's not a turnkey solution today, but some of the comments on here make it sound like it is. That's a form of hype.
Hype can also just mean a lot of media attention.
This doesn't indicate anything good or bad.
> Write a eulogy for a deceased family member
Yeah, if you're okay with sounding like marketing copy written by a robot.
Remember last month when Stable Diffusion was supposed to put Disney out of business? Not gonna happen.
I'm too lazy to search for the Hacker News threads, but trust me, they did.
Though I agree, that was two months ago and we are so over that already.
It outrages me that someone would waste my time making me listen to a regurgitated, averaged-out, speech written without any emotional fire or depth at an occasion that is profoundly meaningful.
A speech as a best man should be personal, heartfelt, it should be funny and a little cringy maybe, and it should mean something.
Same with eulogies; this is a moment to celebrate someone's life, to state what that person meant to you, how they affected you, to share something about that person with everyone else who is mourning.
It's like those services that will buy gifts on your behalf for your "loved ones" or at least, the "acquaintences" that you seem to be obliged to provide gifts for. You've outsourced your taste, your chance to buy something quirky, meaningful, useful based on how well you know a person... which shows that you just don't know them at all.
Better to say nothing than say it with ChatGPT.
Not everyone has ever written something like it.
Why is it unfair or unpersonal if chatgpt helps you, guides you and gives you a good starting point?
Guess how many people would Google some example and starting with that, what's so wrong to let chatgpt generate a shitty first draft already tailored to your situation?
> Why is it unfair or unpersonal if chatgpt helps you, guides you and gives you a good starting point?
As somewhat extreme examples: Rodin didn't swoop in and smooth off "The Kiss" after an apprentice chiselled the basic outline out of a lump of marble; pretty sure Salvador Dali started with blank canvas instead of getting a basic landscape from a $2 Art Shop and added a melting clock and a giraffe to it.
We all have language.
Take your age, subtract maybe 5 years, and that's how much experience you have expressing yourself in your language.
Say you're 20; by that metric you have 15 years experience communicating. Now, I don't play guitar and I'm not remotely musical, but I'm pretty sure if I did it every day for 15 years I could at least bash out somthing original, if possibly influenced by things I liked.
I'm not suggesting that people entertain us for half an hour with heartfelt, witty speech about their relationship with the groom; I'm not suggesting ten minute poetic ode to a life well-lived that leaves everyone simultaneous trying not to cry and trying not to laugh, and nodding and saying "yes, that's how they were".
It doesn't need to be long: just one memory or incident. It doesn't need to be Shakespeare: just heartfelt. It doesn't need to win the Academy for Best Actor. It doesn't need to be a 5 paragraph essay (though if you did use that model, there's nothing wrong with it).
It just needs to be you; it just needs to be yours.
(I already know what I'll say at my Father's funeral when the time comes: it'll be about two sentences, just something he said to me once. But I know that's all I need to say).
Maybe I am arrogant, but I want human feeling and human expression at human events. I don't want to be snoring through regurgitated pap.
If you have a magic Maschine your solution is no longer 'no clue how to do this' but it becomes 'i will ask my trusty expert machine'.
This machine now gives you the next step, the guidance you need without being jugemental OR much simpler: just looks to busy to you that you are not confident to disturb the other.
And I'm sure you can still make something heartfelt with the help of a chatbot, but I'm afraid that people won't.
So I asked it to write me a struct for a table with the "id, name, longitude, latitude, news" columns. That worked well, I was surprised it automatically inferred the data types for said columns.
Then I asked it to write endpoints for retrieving a record from that table and it did so perfectly which again I was surprised by. Asked it to add endpoints for adding records and retrieving all records. Again, no bugs, perfect code. At the end I asked it to create a python script to test the API and it did so flawlessly.
Next day I created a docker env with postgres and went to test the code but it didn't work, turns out it wrote it with mysql in mind so went back and told it to rewrite the entire code with postgres in mind and again it did so flawlessly so overall writing this small API endpoint took maybe 30-60 min.
Considering I was a total newbie at Go this probably would have taken me several hours to complete successfully and this code is basically just boilerplate. I don't care to learn it by heart so I can be more productive in the future. Now that I have ChatGPT I basically don't have to, I don't have to write python to speed up my dev time, I can just have ChatGPT write the basic stuff in a highly performant language. It removed the only drawback which was more boilerplate.
How do you know? Either you know enough Go to be able to tell, and thus you'd be able to write this yourself, or you don't and thus you can't really judge.
I mean, it probably is right, but this "I don't know something, but I trust what the chatbot told me" is what worries me about the rise of the LLMs.
But with ChatGPT you can build it piece by piece.
Not at all. I would even say it is harder because the code being reviewed is priming you.
All code is a leaky abstraction and if you don't know what to look for you just won't see it.
E.g. say you speak python, how would you know how to cleanup memory in C, since you never had to do it? Would you even know that you have to?
On the other hand you can ask gpt to write test and validate at the outside layer that data is transformed the way you need to.
It's like with riddles, someone asks you a riddle you think and you think and you draw a blank but if you are given the answer you can instantly validate it even if you didn't know the answer before hand, same with this.
I share the same worry with regards to the way humans will use AI, along with worries about enabling various antisocial behaviours at scale.
3d and motion and this becomes the holodeck, you describe a scene and it creates it direct to your vr goggles.
Generative AI that can take in a scene and alter it rather than fully create it becomes real augmented reality from sci-fi: not just a HUD or greenscreened in elements, major transformations.
I know three regular people using ChatGPT, here's how they're using it:
1. Franchise consultant: uses it to research opportunities, has it write business letters to franchisees he wishes to contact. Saves him time and is a better writer than he is.
2. Immigration lawyer: uses it to summarize info and write emails to clients. Saves her a ton of time.
3. School teacher: uses it to write report card and assignment feedback. It doesn't save any time at all, but the output is more elegant than if he wrote it manually.
For example, I am studying Japanese and often encounter expressions that seems to mean the same thing; I would ask my teacher, but her time is limited. I can instead ask ChatGPT and only bring to my teacher the questions whose ChatGPT answers did not convince me.
Another example: I like understanding why there are certain steps in a recipe. It would be hard to find someone with the knowledge and time to answer the question, never mind I should pay for their time. ChatGPT can explain what I want to know at the level of detail that I want.
I was also able to get a decent understanding of a mathematical question I had no business understanding by recursively asking questions until I was able to link its answers to my own knowledge.
It was also able to answer questions about the Spring framework that I had while reading the documentation itself. In that context, going in rabbit holes severely slows down learning and has the potential to just get me lost.
I always double check with Google searches, but at least ChatGPT gets me somewhere where I can actually search for something useful.
Relatedly, sometimes, even with an initial prompt I've used in the past to make it do what I need to a text in Japanese, and despite everything I type being in Japanese, sometimes it decides to respond entirely in English.
It can also be really bad with context. Because in Japanese, the subject is often omitted because it's known from context, ChatGPT often mixes things up when rewording or summarizing.
Is GPT-4 significantly better with Japanese?
For example I used it over like 30 minutes to conceptualize, solve, and write some code that draws a graphic for a simple physics problem (0-shot) that I could intuitively understand but had no (physics and math knowledge) tools to calculate properly and it was a great experience.
It let me pick and change how what properties i wanted represented on the graph, knew what center of mass means, how to calculate it for a weird object, got something that feels correct to me, drew it out with various representations where i used color, size, shape to represent the various distances, weights, clusters, etc.
My non programmer friends have used generative networks to make designs for prints, incredible and generally accurate folk art, full mobile games.
People are sleeping on this. Don't be them.
That the model is better in English is no surprise given that most of its training corpus is in English. In fact, based on the sentence structure of the output when it speaks in Russian, it's clear that what's happening there is some kind of real-time translation from English.
That aside, I have yet to see any task on which GPT-4 wasn't at least as good as, or better than, GPT-3.5. I'd love to experiment with that. Do you recall any specific examples?
What I can ask my computer has just leaped from templated strings to raw human conversation.
I have a hard time imagining something not getting impacted.
First of all iPhone autocomplete.. (but I guess any decade old RNN is an improvement there)
In many cases the examples are one-off and the only product opportunity is the generative model interface itself. Looking broadly over the replies what I’m seeing is “there’s a thing that used to fail the cost/benefit test, but now the cost is so low that I can automate these things”. So part of my problem is (1) the small benefits of these tasks mean the value proposition comes from volume—that probably comes from the generality of the task engine, and (2) there may be some niche product opportunities on top of the model platform, but the primary big winner here is the platform itself. (That’s not necessarily a new insight, but it seems especially true here.)
The terrifying part is how often I hear people in this thread and elsewhere mentioning tasks that are not fault tolerant to the failure modes of these models. (For example, I had a coworker tell me their relative is a doctor using ChatGPT to diagnose patients.) People keep focusing on the risks of AGI killing us all with paperclips, but I’m much more worried about getting run over by some idiot asking ChatGPT to drive their car.
Sorry, I misunderstood. "I am not using AI" has become a sort of badge of honor in certain communities so I was wondering if that's what it was.
> (2) there may be some niche product opportunities on top of the model platform, but the primary big winner here is the platform itself. (That’s not necessarily a new insight, but it seems especially true here.)
I agree with that conclusion. I think the chat interface is the killer product. I treat ChatGPT as an assistant/intern that is really good at some tasks but that can also sometimes make dumb mistakes. It has also replaced a lot of queries I would have previously done on Google or questions I might have asked somewhere (e.g. in a forum, Reddit, Discord, etc.).
Many startups build domain specific UIs on top of it using the API, but whether that will become a sustainable business model remains to be seen[0]. I am reminded of the many "vertical" search engines that were once trying to compete with Google.
[0] Saying this as someone who did something like that: https://eli5.gg
The proper answer is "to be correct."
Thousands of Africans sat at their desks, trying to achieve correctness.
This will become a (correct) commodity, but not today.
(Unless you are really good at differential equations.)
But the jury's still out on the long-run commercial potential of pretty good autocomplete or chat-as-search. It's probably more than zero (like blockchain), but it won't "change everything".
I'd guess that 90% people either agree with your observation or don't notice / care. It's just that these things bring out the vocal defenders, usually a sign people know deep down it's a bit of BS and post out of insecurity
it does something more superficially apparent to naive people. decentralization is extremely more important. it will be one of the main ingredients of direct democracy.
I don't know what else to say other than that I would not willingly go back to life without GPT. The value speaks for itself to me.
It feels like it would work for perfectly encapsulated small single purpose functions, which of course sounds great but in reality not many projects are structured like this.
Until I can paste in my entire codebase and the entire history of the product development process into GPT I don't see how it can help.
The bugs that it easily fixes, are generally the bugs whose errors i can copy/paste into google and find an immediate answer on stackoverflow
These generative models, whether NLP or vision, are cool but are really examples from a very narrow field. Most ML researchers and practitioners are working in completely different areas and would not obviously benefit from the new generative models (which are themselves prodictized extensions of existing tech trained on more data) so nothing's going to change day-to-day. If you were working on some alternative general purpose generative model, maybe you got scooped. Otherwise it's business as usual.
The "revolution" is happening for tech savvy non-ML people, "tech-bros" colloquially.
I am tempted to write a small program to use to fix my Internet comments and fix my bad English exprimattion , I done some tests and I see that ChatGPT find the places in my comments that can be improved.
You no longer can mock "Please do the needful" from $1 / hr employees from India. They will be communicating at the same level as an average American and the smart ones can completely take over large fields.
A single person, can wear multiple hats and not get blocked.
This can apply at global scale of at least 4 Billion.
Just because you lack imagination doesn't mean it isn't good
I'm going to guess (assume) you probably haven't worked in a 'real' business. A place where elbow grease still does the majority of the work and where Windows 8 was only just phased out.
The killer app (to me) in case of GPT is GPT itself, not ChatGPT. ChatGPT just allows me to easily test use cases for GPT. There are many interesting use cases for those elbow grease businesses for GPT. For example:
Data entry. There's still a lot of data entry being done from unstructured text. Where specifics like names and addresses need to be extracted from letters and emails and contracts and other stuff. I've worked on these challenges before using different strategies and GPT blows my mind with what it can do just by asking to grab this data and format it as JSON. Is it 100% correct? Nope. You still need people to review the data (depending on the use case), but that already saves tons of work.
Categorization. Some companies still get tons of emails that need to be forwarded to specific departments. This is another thing that GPT does surprisingly well out of the box.
And that's just GPT. There are many other legacy business processes that can be automated (partially) by other models that are coming out right now. Even just 'segment anything' that Meta just released is incredibly useful for many use cases I've seen in my daily work.
Killer apps are always a combination of a technology to solve a real world problem. If you don't venture into the real world and only stay part of the tech world, seeing the killer app is very difficult and ends up leading to Juicero-like products.
Is this data confidential or something you are willing to send to anyone? If the former, you probably shouldn't be sending it to an AI company that retains the data for its own purposes.
You don't want to know how many companies still get paper bills scan them and add them to their system half manually.
And normal people without scripting experience never had the tools to just do a little bit of text analysis without tools like chargpt.
https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
> questioning the value of a chatbot
Original commenter was questioning the value of the entire field.
> hasn’t had a real job”
This is different than “haven't worked in a 'real' business”.
If you really had wanted to get into the "HN rules" game, you could at least have cited "don't be snarky"
But yes, also snarky.
That wasn't even remotely my goal and I'm disappointed that my choice of words made it seem like it was. I purposefully added quotes to the word 'real' in my comment since any business is a real business and made it clear it was an assumption, not a fact.
It's just that many tech workers often haven't worked outside of tech and therefore are blind to issues outside of the tech world, like manual data entry, because they assume that must all be automated. It's exactly the same the other way around, people in what I called 'real' businesses are blind to what tech can to to improve business processes because they have no clue about what's available and possible.
Translation: “Real” businesses sort of make their own gravity.
The real win long term remains killing off manual entry any time it’s possible, but GPT offers a nice patch.
What I value about these lls is that they are essentially a condensed version of the internet (despite being stupidily large for normal hardware currently)
Usually if I’m building a recommendation or search algorithm I have to use the data from the company I’m working with. This makes it possible for me to encode the entire internet into a model that might be running on a product that only has 100 users.
Funny enough I don’t use it a lot for programming, maybe just to jog my memory on a topic.
One thing you're missing is that we now have a pretty good solution to any NLP pipeline that in the past you'd have to spend months to get right. You can probably still get better results by supervised training on specific tasks but it's good enough. NLP (as we knew it) is dead. This will take some time to show in the applications we use, as people figure out how to use and integrate it, and costs need to come down, but it will make it trivial to add smart functionality for things you previously needed an in-house ML team for.
You can integrate ChatGPT here to help with the proofreading and editing. If you have a list of points, you have have ChatGPT write an email, then integrate its changes. This is useful especially if English is not your first language. ([append]) Here's a quick example. These emails aren't great, but might be better than what I can come up with myself in 2 minutes. https://pastebin.com/dD22gR4y
> I’ve seen “write a snippet of code” demos. But I hardly care about this compared to designing a good API; or designing software that is testable, extensible, maintainable, and follows reasonable design principles.
It's super helpful when starting in a new space. I needed to write a python data munging script the other day. Using a few ChatGPT queries I found dependencies and understood the basics of using them. I still had to check the docs, but I jumped past the "tutorial" and straight to "API reference".
> In fact, no one in my extended sphere of friends and family has asked me anything about chatGPT, midjourney, or any of these other models. The only people I hear about these models from are other tech people.
Counter-anecdote, I met two copywriters working for media publications (non-tech) who both have had GPT-based services integrated into their workflows by the company management.
You’re a better writer than me also English isn’t my first language.
Besides that I used chatgpt to write a eulogy for my father. I know roughly what I wanted to say but I couldn’t find a good way to say it. Chatgpt helped me there even in my own language (Croatian) and there is just no way I could’ve made it as poetic as it did.
A couple of weeks ago they wrote an episode of South Park with ChatGPT (and it was about ChatGPT). It's definitely gone mainstream amongst students who are using it to do homework.
Maybe my favorite was pasting in pages of documentation describing all of the error codes for a library (the docs are the only source of truth) and getting it to output a very good typescript enum.
> "I’ve even gotten it to walk me through things like installing WSL 2 without using the Microsoft Store after I nuked all Appx packages."
That's a search engine query you can issue already today, without involving any LLMs. It will cost a fraction of the cost of running this with an LLM, and it'll actually bring you to the "source" of the information (a thread on StackOverflow with the full context - including "wrong answers" which are just as useful) - unlike an LLM.
* Asking about how back-propagation works with multiple output nodes
* Examples of successful ICOs
* A deep dive into what it means to calculate the gradient of a function, with me asking lots of clarifying questions
* A deep dive into how electricity pricing works in the UK, digging into the market clearing price
* Looking for a generic "unwrap one layer of type" utility type in TypeScript
* "In JavaScript, I want to format a date as YYYY-MM-DD_HH-MM-SS"
* Seeing if there's a more concise way to get Zod to define an item that's required, but the value can be defined, other than using a union
* Ideas for naming two user fields, one that's a changed user, one that's the user making the changes
* Digging into the implications that Camilla is called the Queen Consort, not just the Queen
* "Excel I want to show the weekday as a single letter"
So, basically, it's my go-to instead of Google + StackOverflow
Currently you can command kagi/google/http websites to return information. You can infer what should be in Google's search engine and track when information is deleted.
GPT is not commanded, it predicts with inaccuracy. So anybody who wants to black-hole information behind the scenes and never reveal clues to that fact, can do so.
All failed predictions are covered by LLM's design, you cannot infer without serious long term study that something has been removed deliberately. You cannot infer that a valid data entry exists and you failed to retreive it, because unverifiable bs is the default failure state from LLM's.
High level tech people will invest in this, regardless of what the public values in it. Just like Elon's SpaceX and Tesla got lifted out of pitfalls by gov and VC, so too will the AI guys.
Let me put it this way. Hoarde and backup every scrap of online information you care about. Hypothetically an LLM fueled replacement for all of 'the free and open web' websites, could limit information availibity.
A metaphorical example would be leaving out Tianamen Square. Which is fine when you can just Google it, but with the old freedom of information gone, an LLM has the ability to just bs you and you'd never have a reason to infer it existed in the first place.
It's a Super-Injunction by default, a perfect repository for spies to dump data, a librarian who will answer any question but only answer with the truth, if he likes you.
No more Snowden and Assange leaks, there's no way to chase up a deleted video with a search engine.
Anyway you get the idea. In the long run, the structuralists are licking their wet lips at the thought of re-establishing a heirarchy of information access. (Probably, i don't know).
GPT will only ever be a good writing support tool.
People have no clue human intelligence has very little to do with "statistical analysis of old data".
What it can do is reason some pretty tricky interdisciplinary answers. It's about as useful as having an intern that's finished literally every white collar college out there but has no idea what they're doing. It takes some prompting to get useful work out of it but it is possible and it is very effective when you get it right.
The $20 sub has saved me quite a bit of time, the main challenge is remembering to set it to GPT4 for every damn conversation, as the previous models are trash.
How is that different from googling? Lots of articles won't bother to include import and the structs they use definitely won't match up to your use-case because their dataset if different. What if my use-case is a bit strange and I need to embed the file instead of reading from the file system, for example? I can ask Chat GPT and it will update the example program, using my exact file name and the variable names for the problem I've described and the program runs as written!
I don't write much Go (so I don't actually care to commit the hello_world.csv ritual to memory), but I know enough about it to verify that the program doesn't have any glaring issues and make my own tweaks as necessary. Saved so much time for me in this scenario.
I needed a quick utility window in the Unity editor to see what animations could fire animation events and what those were.
I’m somewhat familiar with the editor API, enough to know what to Google and roughly where to go in the docs. I don’t do it enough though to really learn it beyond that point. So I’d estimate I could spend maybe one and a half hours, counting research, coding something, testing it and then context-switching back to what I was working on.
On a whim I asked ChatGPT (GPT-4) if it could do it for me. Formulating the prompt took a few minutes. I included a short bullet list of what I wanted and told it what Unity version I was on.
In almost an instant, it did it. I copied the code into a new file, added it to my project and it worked.
Time from idea to the first working version was around 10 minutes.
I asked for some minor refinement and then asked how I could extend it. It gave me starting points and taught me something new about Unity. All that slow doc searching, Google searching and forum-trawling was gone.
It’s like having my own personal dev assistant.
As long as the new language is well-documented, it should be simple to teach the LLM to use it.
Ditto all the redacting work in newspapers, intranet etc. The whole field of proofreaders was virtually extinguished overnight.
Marketing agencies - and I spoke to a few - increased their workers' producitivity 2-4 times (sic!), virtually overnight. Anything from writing briefs to writing copy.
Programming - most of my programming work is deep algorithms, so not much help here, but for writing boiler plate code with new APIs, or writing in a language that I'm a bit rusty in, chatgpt is better than anything else.
Customer service helplines / chatbots (and the same for intranet) - we don't see it just yet, because it takes a bit more time to build a good system, but there are probably thousands projects right now worldwide building those for any niche concievable.
Business intelligence - we used, with success, ChatGPT in our deep tech seedfund, for helping out with initial project ddil.
And, essentially, rubber ducking, but for every single field out there. I just discussed with a psychiatrist how he can use even boilerplate GPT-4 as an additional consultant. You need to be aware of limitations of course, but it is already immensely useful in it's current form - and dedicated solutions for medicine are coming very soon.
That's the short-term perspective and low hanging fruits. On top of that, you have thousands projects now, that are figuring out how to apply LLMs to specific niches. It was difficult before, because you had to train your own models, and now you can just fine tune the existing ones, do embeddings, or just plain prompt engineering.
Oh, and also synergy with different AI modalities - we've had a massive growth in voice recognition and generation, visual recognition, and so on. And LLMs are a glue that adds a layer of understanding underneath.
Nevertheless offline models should alleviate some of this.
Art generation is going to be groundbreaking for the advertising industry. Basically, you can hire summer interns from arts academies or liberal arts schools to type cool stuff into Midjourney to generate amazing art for your ads. You don't need to pay for real artists, who, sadly, their original artwork was used to train the model.
The same can be said for low-end graphics arts: Stuff like: Make me a greeting card for this big event. Today, you need to pay a graphic artists to whip something up in 2-72 hours. That will be replace by someone with modest English skills working in a call center somewhere in India or Philippines. They might chat with you for five mins (voice or text chat) to brainstorm ideas. Then, they will "drive" Midjourney and put together a nicely-themed party invite.
On the more advanced side, I do think artists will browse the "best of" portfolios on Midjourney (and others) to get new ideas. They might also use Midjourney to get a head start.
The next logical step beyond Midjourney is to generate the same image, but as a 3D model. I think people (myself included!) really (really, really!) underestimate the cost of creating 3D models for films, adverts, and games. If Midjourney could give you a starting model, you might save hours (or days) of work.
Next-Next: Midjourney can provide basic animations of the same 3D model. Again, you can download in a wide variety of formats, so that you can import and tweak as necessary. Think: Pay to play. Rendered as GIF is cheap as hell, but download advanced CAD format with 50K points in the model might cost 100s of USD. (Remember: You are paying for a SaaS engine, not an expensive, talented artist.) Imagine: "Hey Midjourney, I need a 60 second animation of cute animals, like Animal Crossing, sitting at a table enjoying our new brand of tea called 'It's Great Tea Meet You!'." (Use ChatGPT to generate the first draft of the script.) Writing that just made me think: Ok, now you can add voiceover.
The possibilities for the commercialisation of generating still and moving picture are nearly endless, and many will be useful for the advertising, film, and gaming industry.
Would reddit, or HN still be interesting if there were bots that talked in the popular tone of the subreddit or thread that dominated the conversation?
AI's effect will be like pollution to our culture. It'll speed up and help alot of things and be very helpful generally. But It will create problems in 'human' spaces.
Most impactful is how it destroys the blank page/getting started barrier, second how easy it is to substantially change/adapt/refocus produced work.
It is like having an incredibly efficient, patient and encyclopedic junior collaborator 24/7 at your disposal. It can't be trusted to fully automate without knowledgeable supervision, but it saves a boatload of time and effort.
From personal experience I'd say the opposite: GPT lacks the specialist knowledge to produce useful writing or yield accurate answers in any of the markets I've worked in (I'll grant that less niche markets exist, and that GPT is pretty good at fixing the writing of people that lack English language writing skill) and it seems like people egging GPT as replacing most of those roles are all showcasing hypothetical "generate a website for an imaginary product with minimal brief" kind of situations which GPT excels at because there aren't any real world knowledge worker constraints imposed on their solution. That's definitely not to say it has no use, but lots of less technologically impressive accomplishments like data entry wizards and templates also have use without being considered transformative.
(and really, there's nothing particularly special about any of the stuff I've worked on, it's just GPT doesn't have relevant knowledge or a path to acquiring it so doesn't generate remotely adequate responses, struggles even more with novel concepts and would be terrible at real time discussion even if suitable interfaces to it existed and were unobjectionable, and that's before we get started on the privacy implications)
This is the killer feature of GPT for me. I'm very, very good at optimizing and solving problems within specific domains, but terrible at picking a direction with no boundaries. (Pick a theme for a costume party and I'll have the most interesting costume. Throw a Halloween party and I'll show up in jeans and a t-shirt.)
I recently wanted to submit a conference talk, but wasn't sure where to start. I gave ChatGPT a list of possible topics and some general guidance about what I thought was interesting and asked it to suggest topics. I picked one from its list and asked for tweaks, then "discussed" with ChatGPT for a few more rounds until I had a very clear idea of what the talk would be.
I don't feel like that's cheating. I'm still going to create and give the talk myself. But if I had to come up with the topic and abstract on my own with only a blank sheet of paper to start with, I'd never have submitted it.
Q: Describe turning 180 degrees and continuing down stream with the current in a heavily loaded bulk carrier from a stationary position tied to a dock with five knots of downstream current using two 50 ton Ballard pull tractor tugs. Be very detailed and specific in describing the actions required to complete this action safely.
A: To safely turn a heavily loaded bulk carrier 180 degrees and continue downstream with the current from a stationary position tied to a dock with five knots of downstream current, using two 50-ton bollard pull tractor tugs, you must follow a series of steps. These steps are designed to ensure a smooth and controlled maneuver while minimizing the risk of collision, grounding, or damage to the vessel, dock, and tugs.
1. Preparation: Prior to beginning the maneuver, ensure that all necessary communication equipment is functional and tested. This includes VHF radios, signal flags, and/or lights. Establish communication protocols and channels with the tugs and any other relevant parties, such as pilots and harbor control. Additionally, check the weather forecast, tidal information, and any local regulations or restrictions that may apply.
2. Positioning of tugs: Position one tug at the bow and the other at the stern of the bulk carrier. The tug at the bow will primarily be responsible for pulling and steering the vessel, while the tug at the stern will act as a brake and assist in maneuvering the vessel as needed. Securely attach the towlines to the designated towing points on the vessel.
3. Cast off lines: Once the tugs are in position and ready, instruct the crew to release all mooring lines from the dock. As the lines are released, the tugs will need to maintain tension on their towlines to keep the vessel in position and prevent it from drifting downstream with the current.
4. Initiate the turn: The tug at the bow will start the turning process by pulling the vessel's bow away from the dock and into the current. At the same time, the tug at the stern will push the vessel's stern towards the dock to create a pivoting motion. Both tugs must continuously adjust their power and positioning to maintain control of the vessel as it turns.
5. Manage the current: During the turn, both tugs must work together to counteract the effects of the five-knot downstream current. The tug at the bow will need to pull harder to overcome the current, while the tug at the stern will need to push and also act as a brake to prevent the vessel from gaining too much speed.
6. Monitor the turn: Throughout the 180-degree turn, the vessel's crew and tugs must maintain constant communication to ensure a smooth and controlled maneuver. Monitor the vessel's position, speed, and proximity to the dock, other vessels, and any navigational hazards. Adjust the tugs' power and positioning as needed to maintain control and avoid collisions or grounding.
7. Complete the turn: As the vessel approaches the completion of the 180-degree turn, the tugs will need to adjust their power and positioning to slow down the vessel and align it with the downstream current. The tug at the bow will ease its pulling force, while the tug at the stern will continue pushing until the vessel is properly aligned.
8. Proceed downstream: Once the vessel is aligned with the current and moving downstream, both tugs will gradually reduce their power to allow the vessel to continue under its own momentum. The tugs will remain close by to provide assistance as needed until the vessel is safely clear of the harbor and any navigational hazards.
9. Release tugs: When the vessel is at a safe distance from the dock and navigational hazards, and under the control of its own propulsion, the towlines can be released, and the tugs can return to their base.I have the opposite experience. Everyone I meet outside tech has been exploring ChatGPT, or at least has heard of it and is extremely curious. And in non-tech student circles, a (non STEM) TA I know said students who until a month ago were bad to mediocre (8-12/20 scoring), are suddenly all turning in top 16-18/20 assignments this month. You can argue about what to do given this change, but you can not deny the impact.
* Explaining what a do/while(false) loop was for as I'd not seen that construct before
* Discussing what DIDs were and how web DIDs worked as the RFC was very detailed in a lot of areas I just didn't care about. A discussion with a pretty knowledgeable person in the area was what I needed, and what I got. It explained what the well-known part was, explained my confusion around resolving to a document and resolving to a resource (where I was mentally stuck).
* Creating a learning plan, diagrammed by mermaid, for progressing in bouldering. Each major step broken down into sub-parts to practice
* Finding https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloom%27s_2_sigma_problem given bad explanations that didn't lead me to the right place in google
* Finding https://blockprotocol.org/ given a shaky memory of "some composable ui framework by someone famous" iterating a little with bing. I had failed to find it before manually.
* Explained and created a table of bouldering gradings as the place I go uses a different one to the videos I see
* Discussed project ideas to do with my son, gave me great ideas around electronics that I think are a good fit as well as a few other things. The most useful part here was being able to say "that's too generic, I need proper projects" and "that's too simple for him" and have it update. It then also created some good explanations at different levels about how radios work,
* General discussions about long term impacts of LLMs, potential use cases
* Career advice
* Generating art that we'll be getting commissioned for the house
* NER without any coding
* Generating ember templates, CSS and example filling data for a custom framework given a problem statement (what I'm actually building right now)
* (edit) I just took requests from my kids and made them some colouring in pages with robots, firefighting robots, lego ninjas, owls, frogs and crabs.
> In fact, no one in my extended sphere of friends and family has asked me anything about chatGPT, midjourney, or any of these other models. The only people I hear about these models from are other tech people.
I've had family members tell me they've used it to create reports, and used it to create marketing copy, a website and lecture slides for others.
Often Im doing something else in the meantime, like coding, in a meeting or having a beer.
Finally we can be drunk and code at the same time ;).
Joking aside, it's been a huge productivity boost, and if you ask things properly will write hugely detailed and correct code.
I've also used to understand other languages/coding I was less familier with, for instance c and sql procedures.
Above only works with v4, 3.5 is to inaccurate. But is indeed slow, small things I can do faster.
With writing articles i've been disappointed so far, even corrections or styles I ask to adjust it puts in back in a few questions later.
However writing children stories for helping my kid learn how to read it's really good, in every language. "Write a story for kids of age ... about ... use the following words". Came up with nearly perfect stories my kid loved.
From me and around me:
- marketing asked me to show them the ropes of mid-journey yesterday, boss said "this will be the face of our new product" to one of my hasty "creations".
- mom learns english with chatGTP because she finished duolingo
- I wrote a PoC demo for a prompt engineering tool and gpt4 demo chat in a day. That would have taken me days without gpt4. (material design, storing in local storage, gobbling up the data specification, save everything on change not with buttons)
- First draft for some diagrams in mermaid js worked well too, or converting from flow diagram to a swimlane diagram.
- All kind of personal data cleaning: dirty list of emails > ready to paste in mail client, wall of text with broken new line characters > sub-headlines and paragraphs
- virtual assistants (e.g. company chat-/voicebots), needs a bit of tooling but gpt4 is totally ready for it (apart from latency and price)
- 30 minutes to a browser-add-on that marks tweets as "seen" so I can skip them if I scrolled past them before. (userscript to be precise)
- understanding tax regulations %)
What I'm waiting for:
- better knowledge ingestion so it can use my notes
- personalization over time
- good dev-ops integration (push and deploy for me too).
- maybe something to have better separation of concerns on code so the messiness matters less, not sure if possible :)
- remote control my screen
- running an LLM locally
- have it build its own plugins for any website or service
Spam of all kinds and at automated-industry scale. Imagine blog-spam written in a variety of styles so you can no longer easily identify it as such. Imagine chum-boxes that no longer repeat themselves and are harder to identify as such. Imagine ads masquerading as content, as it already exists, but at scale.
And every time you slip up and click on one, it will learn a little more about you and create chum content better tailored to you.
Generative AI will facilitate a flood of algorithmic spam.
This kind of spam already exists, it just isn't scaled because it still takes time and resources to create and the people creating it are not the brightest, so for now it is easy to identify.
There's insane potential to automate it. Think b2b, not b2c.
That’s especially true for things which involve liability. If Google builds a system to recommend YouTube videos and ads, it’s a win as long their error rate is below a certain level. If it’s your insurance company rejecting claims, however, people can die that way and the lawsuits for breaking contracts or legal standards can far exceed the believed savings.
But soon people will just enter one goal, "make me money" and the program will go on a loop, pausing only when making an important decision to get the approval of the owner
Also, the input buffer of LLMs is increasing. Soon we will be able to begin with "write me a full 3D game"
I can fire up an AI to build out my missing unit tests in 10 minutes what would take a developer 3 weeks to accomplish.
Scale that for 155 different projects … that’s over a year of development time in about 24 hours of compute
All of our government funded researchers who worked on natural language processing can now throw their work in the trash and resign. ChatGPT is leagues better than anything that they've done. And OpenAI weren't even trying.
Windows wasn't even localised in Latvian properly until very recently. Google translate still spits out ridiculous translations. (Though it's better than before). Most software isn't even available in Latvian. Almost no video games are in Latvian. Only the most popular books and movies are being translated. Interested in something less popular - you better learn other languages.
And now ChatGPT comes out and I can ask it to write C++ functions in Latvian. I don't need to learn English to be a programmer any more. Nothing like that has been done before. It translates stuff way better than google. And it will only get better.
Imagine that there's a book that only 50 people from Latvia are interested in. Human translators aren't going to bother. But ChatGPT can do it easily.
This is a very big deal.
Real researchers build on advances not quit because of them. I'm sure GPT is not as optimised as it could be to process non-English text. There's clearly a lot of work to do. At least this is true for south asian languages and I'm sure is true even for popular Western languages like French or German
Rule 34. When in doubt, always defer to rule 34.
Sure, it can help you write an email now, but the real magic could be when these things come together in a symphony of intelligence.
Also, there is no "working in AI", a few thousand people are doing real AI at most. The rest of us are calling an API.
So... I don't know where you're working. But don't twiddle your thumbs for too long! It's no fun to be in the last half of people to leave the sinking ship.
If you think GPT is just about chat, you've misunderstood LLMs.
Bard is overtly a reduced-resources model compared to the best version of the same technology (which, if true, is probably a boneheadedly bad choice for a public demo when everyone is already wowed by the people who got theirs out first, but easily explains that disparity. Though so does “guy who wanted public attention made stuff up well-calibrated to that goal.”)
There's a scaling problem. ChatGPT/LLM systems cost far more to run per query than the Google search engine. Google can't afford to make those the first line query reply.
A big business model question is whether Google will insist you be logged in to get to the large language model.
At Google scale, these things are going to have to be a hierarchy. Not everything needs to go to a full LLM system. Most Google queries by volume can be answered from a a cache.
And given how aggressively they limit the number of search results (in spite of listing some ridiculous number of results on page #1) that percentage may well be very large.
> I am suspicious that Google is incompetent.
Google has put a lot of effort and investment into AI. With Bard I get the feeling they're not showing us what they really have - it's like for some reason they're holding back the good stuff, at least that's my suspicion.
They have the dominant product that makes them billions and billions of dollars at 'relatively' low cost.
The new dominant product is on its way, but it costs far more to operate and will net them far less money, so... um no one wants to kill the goose that is still laying golden eggs, even though its days are numbered already.
If I was Google I'd be worried. Very worried indeed. They either need to dramatically change their entire company within 18 months, or accept they are going to loose substantial amount of market -- and once its gone, it's gone in a first mover, winner takes all environment like what we have right now. Just ask Google themselves what it felt like back in the early 2000's when they completely destroyed the other search engines.
Now it is. Google used to be good too, until ads started looking like search results, and then the first page became entirely ads.
In the future, when you ask ChatGPT to help you write your resume, it will try to upsell you a premium account in linked in. It will withhold its best resume advice only for LinkedIn premium users after all.
You think Clips was bad? You’ve seen nothing yet.
The cost of computing these ads would be a lot more than today's keyword-based approach, that's certainly a problem. But think of hyper-relevant ads, based on the chat itself. There's a lot of information there, that beats tracking people's behavior online all day.
I’ve been infuriated with DuckDuckGo on occasion because it refused to exclude certain results.
In fact when you add an exclusion clause it simply boosts those results further instead of removing them.
I’ve been told this is because the underlying search providers refuse to exclude paying customer even when you explicitly don’t want to hear from them.
I could definitely see this happening in LLM answers too and I don’t expect it to be particularly subtle.
That depends on ad publishers, right? If they want to sell A, B and C and I am interested in D, then Google's still showing one of A, B or C to me. D doesn't make profit if there is nobody paying for ads.
Google is advertising things we don't need, that's why ad clicks are so abysmal. LLMs won't change that.
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Kodak_moment
Etymology
(moment worth photographing): From an Eastman Kodak Company advertising campaign.
(business's failure to foresee): In reference to the Eastman Kodak Company's decline when cameras and film were overtaken by smartphones and digital technologies.
Noun Kodak moment (plural Kodak moments)
(informal) A sentimental or charming moment worthy of capturing in a photograph.
(informal) The situation in which a business fails to foresee changes within its industry and drops from a market-dominant position to being a minor player or declares bankruptcy.
Kodak Film Commercial - These are the Moments - Baby (1993):
I highly doubt this. If they had it they would show it because if they don't react swiftly and decisively their brand will be in 'catch up' mode rather than out front where they are used to being.
Google is run by smart people whose mission is to maximize clicks on ads. If a user finds what they’re looking for quickly, that’s lost revenue.
Google’s profit motives are not aligned with useful AI. The better AI is, the less people need to click through to lots of web pages and ads, the less revenue for Google.
I don’t think they can catch up without a major pivot in business model. It’s very hard to be deeply invested in providing more value if it means reducing your revenue.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4469984-how-does-google-mak...
GPT3.5 turbo is much more interesting probably, because they seem to have found out how to make it much more efficient (some kind of distillation?).
GPT4 if I had to make a very rough guess, probably flash attention, 100% of the (useful) internet/books for it's dataset, and highly optimized hyperparameters.
I'd say with GPT4 they probably reached the limit of how big the dataset can be, because they are already using all the data that exists. Thus for GPT5 they'll have to scale in other ways.
I’m curious about this too; not just on the dataset size, but also the model size. My hunch is that the rapid improvements of the underlying model by making it bigger/giving it more data will slow, and there’ll be more focus on shrinking the models/other optimisations.
If anything, I wonder if the actual limit that'll be hit first will be the global manufacturing capacity for relevant hardware. Check out the stock price of NVDA since last October.
1. They would already be using everything they can get 2. They would easily be able to explain what they're not using, without giving away sensitive secrets.
Bard is way behind ChatGPT with GPT-3.5, much less GPT-4. Haven’t tried the others, though.
OTOH, that’s way behind qualitatively, not in terms of time-of-progress. So I don’t think it is at all an insurmountable lead, as much as it is a big utility gap.
GPT4>ChatGPT>Claude>Character AI> Bard
Claude and Character AI are great at holding a conversation but they lack the ability to do anything specialized that really makes these LLM’s useful in my day to day life. I ask GPT-4 and ChatGPT questions I would ask in stackoverflow, I can’t do that with Claude or Character AI. Bard actually seems behind even conversationally to the rest
There is a network effect forming around its models. The strengths of its kit speak for themselves. (It also cannot be understated how making ChatGPT public, something its competitors were too feeble, incompetent and behind the curve to do, dealt OpenAI a massive first-mover advantage.)
But as others note, other models are in the ballpark. Where OpenAI is different is in the ecosystem of marketing literature, contracts, code and e.g. prompt engineers being written and trained with GPT in mind. That introduces a subtle switching cost, and not-so-subtle platform advantage, that–barring a Google-scale bout of incompetence–OpenAI is set to retain for some time.
How true is this? From playing around with Bard and Claude, GPT-4 seems to be significantly better, especially around code generation / understanding.
Maybe PaLM is near there (it's not evaluated on that page) but nothing else even comes close at all
GPT-3.5 will get the gist of what the code is doing, and then provide what looks like a direct translation but differs in numerous details whilst having a bunch of other problems.
GPT-4 does a correct translation, almost every time.
It kills me that there's a waiting list for the API. I have put together some tools to integrate 3.5 into my workflow and it helps for my current task a lot (for others it's useless). But to really shine it needs to have API access to 4.
Qualitatively, it's wildly different from gpt-3.5-turbo for discussions. 3.5 feels a little formulaic after a while with some kinds of questions. 4 is much more like talking to an intelligent person. It's not perfect, but I'm flipping between discussing a sporting thing, then medical malpractice, legal issues, technical specifications and it's doing extremely well.
If it's affordable for you, I'd really recommend trying it.
Anything involving reasoning, code, complex logic, GPT-4 is a breakthrough. GPT-3.5 turbo is more than good enough for poetry and the other text generation stuff.
And yes, it does indeed make an amazing rubber duck for brainstorming.
At the very least, it's a massive productivity booster.
I have at most moderate confidence in this hypothesis.
What? Huh? Yes the human genome encodes all human level thought.[1] Clearly it does because the only difference between humans that have abstract thought as well as language capabilities and primates that don't is slightly different DNA.
In other words: those slight differences matter.
To anyone who has used GPT since ChatGPT's public release in November and who pays to use GPT 4 now, it is clear that GPT 4 is a lot smarter than 3 was.
However, to the select few who see an ocean in a drop of water, the November release already showed glimmers of abstract thought, many other people dismiss it as an illusion.
To a select few, it is apparent that OpenAI have found the magic parameters. Everything after that is just fine tuning.
Is it any surprise that without OpenAI releasing their weights, models, or training data, Google can't just come up with its own? Why should they when without turning it into weights and models, the human neural network architecture itself is still unmatched (even by OpenAI) despite being digitized twenty years ago?
No, it's no surprise. OpenAI performed what amounts to a miracle, ten years ahead of schedule, and didn't tell anyone how they did it.
If you work for another company, such as Google, don't be surprised that you are ten years behind. After all, the magic formula had been gathering dust on a CD-ROM for 20 years (human DNA which encodes the human neural network architecture), and nobody made the slightest tangible progress toward it until OpenAI brute forced a solution using $1 billion of Azure GPU's that Microsoft poured into OpenAI in 2019.
Is your team using $1 billion of GPU's for 3 years? If not, don't expect to catch up with OpenAI's November miracle.
p.s. two months after the November miracle, Microsoft closed a $10 billion follow-on investment in OpenAI.
They have not, which makes me curious about which company gp works for because the "F" and "G" in FAANG are publicly known to already have LLMs. Not sure about Amazon, but I'm guessing they do too.
As an outsider, the amazing thing about ML/AI research is that you get a revolutionary discovery of a technique or refinement that changes everything, and a few months later another seminal paper is published[0]. My bet is ChatGPT is not the last word in AI, and OpenAI will not have a monopoly on upcoming discoveries that will improve the state of the art. They will have to contend with the fact that Google, Meta & Amazon own their datacenters and can likely train models for cheaper[1] than what Microsoft is paying itself via their investment in OpenAI.
0. In no particular order: Deep learning, GANs, Transformers, transfer learning, Style Transfer, auto-encoders, BERT, LLMs. Betting the farm on LLMs doesn't sound like a reasonable thing to do - not saying that's what OpenAI is doing, but there are a lot of folk on HN who are treating LLMs as the holy grail.
1. OpenAI may get a discount, but my prediction when they burn through Microsoft, they'll end up being "owned" by Microsoft for all intents and purposes.
Discord comes to mind.
I'm guessing that this is the #1 fear for people inside OpenAI have right now.
[0] For the record, I have zero problem with this.
2. You won't be able to get the hundreds of millions or more interactions that OAI will have (both due to cost of API as well as it being not easy to figure out a good way to generate that many queries for a good multiturn conversaton). Maybe you can make up for it by querying smartly. We don't know if we can right now.
Google has been collecting user interactions since 2007 via GOOG-411, which was a precursor to the Google Assistant - I suspect Google has billions of user interactions on hand through the latter. Facebook has posts and comment, Amazon has products pages, reviews and product Q&As and all of them have billions of dollars to draw upon if they choose to buy high-quality data, or spin-up / increase teams that create and/or categorize training data.
They also have deep roster of AI researchers[1] to potentially obsolete LLMs or make fine-tuning work without access to of ChatGPT records.
1. I suspect Google alone has more AI researchers that OpenAI has employees
OpenAI is enjoying first mover advantage around the platformication and product-ification of LLMs.
For instance, why has G not yet exposed some next-level capabilities in mail, in docs, and many of their other properties?
Why do Google Assistant and Amazon Alexa and Apple Siri still suck?
OpenAI has released a ton more easy-to-use-for-everyone stuff that has really leapfrogged what a lot of "applied" folks everywhere else were trying to build themselves, despite being on-the-face-of-it more "general."
Once again, their ability to do computation on device and optimize silicon to do it, is unparalleled.
A huge Achilles heel of current models like GPT-4 is that they can’t be run locally. And there are tons of use cases where we don’t necessarily want to share what we’re doing with OpenAI.
That’s why if Apple wasn’t so behind on the actual models (Siri is still a joke a decade later), they’d be in great shape hardware-wise.
For AWS, if MS starts giving discounts for OAI model usage to regular Azure customers, that's gonna be a strong incentive to switch
For Apple, A Windows integrated with GPT tech may become a tough beast to beat.
I can't imagine that, because it doesn't seem to fit the use case. Especially not to the point of bankruptcy of Amazon, maybe as a small novelty? Can you list some killer features that the chat would bring that would make the existing shopping experience irrelevant? Maybe not everything is a nail to the hammer?
or
"I'm looking for X. Can you ask me a few questions and give me a choice of products based on that"
or
"I'm looking for a product that does X, Y, Z. Can you find such a product for me"
or
"Does this product do Y/is compatible with Z/is an appropriate give for person P"
I'm not saying this will happen. I'm saying it's a risk that Amazon should take seriously.
Also this could aggregate information not just on the product page but across multiple pages which is time consuming to do by oneself.
As for 2021 cutoff -- ChatGPT can now browse the internet and if Walmart built a bot that interfaces with ChatGPT, I'm sure they would be feeding it the latest info
There's no way you will want to interact more with Walmart's chatbot than necessary.
When you're trying to answer that question now you'd presumably use heavy filters: wirecutter, trusted blogs, top reddit comments, etc. GPT won't.
Top comment: I love seeing my job get transformed from 3D artist into prompt writer into jobless in a year or less, yay!
You can check out my melodies project from a year ago as a current example. There is nothing matching it yet: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLoCzMRqh5SkFPG0-RIAR8.... And that's just my personal project.
What you're saying about companies recognizing the commercial potential is clearly wrong. It's six years later and Siri, Alexa, and Google Home are still nearly as dumb as they were back then. Microsoft is only now working on adding a writing assistant to Word, and that's thanks to OpenAI. Why do you think Google had to have "code red" if they saw the potential? Low-budget startups are also very slow - they should've had their products out when the GPT-3 API was published, not now.
One thing I didn't expect is how well this same approach would work for code. I haven't even tried to do it.
And I'm sorry, but you're completely wrong about companies recognizing commercial potential. I worked on Alexa for five years, it is a far harder problem than you think. It is nowhere near as simple as "we just weren't looking at the right NN architecture or optimizer!" You're acting like it was a novel idea to think LMs would be extremely useful if the performance was better (in 2017). I'm just trying to tell you that isn't the case.
If any of the FAANG companies recognized the commercial potential and still accomplished so little, they must be entirely incompetent. When this 2017 deck was created, I had 50k LOC (fewer would be needed now using the frameworks and libraries) plus Word and Chrome plugins. The inference was still too slow and not quite feature-complete, and it was just a writing assistant with several other features in early testing, but it seems more than enough for me to know quite well how difficult is the task.
Working on the practical side of ML/AI at FAANG, you will probably be working with some combination of feature stores, training platforms, inference engines, and so on - all attempting to optimize inference and models for specific use cases - largely ranking - which ads to show which customers based on feature store attributes, which shows to show which customers - all these ranking problems exist orthogonal to ChatGPT, which is using relatively stale datasets to answer knowledge based questions.
The scaling problems for AI/ML for productionizing these ranking models from training to inference is a huge scaling problem. ChatGPT hasn't really come close to solving it in a general way (and also solves a different class of problems).
For the time being, I expect LLMs to start creeping their tendrils into various workflows where the underlying engineering work is light but the rate of this will be limited by the slow adaptability of the humans that are not yet completely disposable. The "low hanging fruit" is obvious, but EVPs who are asking "why can't we just replace our whole web experience with a chatbot interface?" may end up causing weird overcorrections among their subordinates.
So yes ads optimisation/recommendations still need to be reliable for the time being, but for how long?
Chat GPT is just to get us used to the idea, it’s the toy version.
You have a language model produce an outline with steps and then recursively set agents to consume and iterate on a task until another language model finds the results satisfies the specification.
This includes interactions with the real world (via instructions executed over an API) and using the success of those interactions for reinforcement learning on the model.
But I think they are mostly pointless as OpenAI is so far ahead of everyone external it’s not even funny. Most externals things with the API will be obsolete in a few months.
They had GPT4 6 months ago or more! They have access to the full model without crippling. They (for sure) have larger, more powerful models that are not cost effective/safe to release to the public.
Now they have a new data flyweel with people asking millions of questions daily.
Put your speculation hat on and listen attentively to the interviews of Sam Altman and Ilya Sutskever.
You will see were their minds go: UBI, safety, world disruption, etc.
It's really not that complicated. Gatekeeping is so over.
I would call that “applied AI” and there’s no shame in figuring out novel ways to apply a new technology.
SAM (Segment Anything): it is so far beyond any other vision model, I actually believe vision will be solved in a few years now. People don’t realize that there was an industry of publishing paper with incremental improvements in small datasets in CVPR that has been completely invalidated by this paper. I’ve seen engineers in Cruise segmentation team, say Metas new model seems to work better than the in house models they developed and that they should build on top of this. I’ve worked in Tesla Autopilot before and saw it hit a mannequin because we never had mannequin in our dataset before ( we might have had it in the data but it was not a part of our ontology for the network to predict). One approach to mitigate this was OpenAI’s clip that used the English Language as classification labels but Meta’s SAM is so much better where it detects objects without need to specify language. It just understands scenes and objects, at a fundamental level, it can detect anything in a picture if you prompt it right. Honestly it feels a lot like GPT1 which was also ignored by most. If you prompt it right you can get it to segment anything in an image, but prompting it right requires human input. However I can imagine the third or fourth version, with some RL sprinkled in just working zero-shot on complete pixel understanding of any image in the world. This was one of the holy grail of computer vision, that we are seeing solved right in front of our eyes
This is 2021, but these systems are still not very smart today.
I have a robot vacuum cleaner with "AI" computer vision, and you can just tell that it doesn't see the world in the way a living being does. It'll detect and avoid shoes, cables and dog turds, but is completely blind to anything not in its specific library of objects (we have a two year old, it chokes all the time on things like ribbons and toys).
Being able to recognise objects that cause it to choke, even if it doesn't what they're called in English, is souch more significant to robotics than being able to label things.
Already have use cases for that too!
Incredible. To be clear, your group and the company you work for saw fit to release your beta-quality autopilot onto public roads, as it was hitting human-looking objects in your test labs. Is that what you're admitting here? Did anyone in your group object to this? Were you personally concerned?
Instead of moving fast and breaking things, what if you had not rushed your autopilot out, but waited on technology to improve to the point that your product wouldn't hit a human-looking object it had never seen before?
1. It costs thousands of dollars a year + 15k one time and it’s very easy to get banned from autopilot for life. They have a 3 strike rule + 1000 miles driven on your Tesla with a good safety before you’re allowed to access autopilot
2. I’ve seen 2 types of customers use autopilot. One is rich dudes, who buy it just to have all bells and whistles. They use it less than once a month and honestly it’s a waste of money for them. The other are passionate early adopters, they regularly make YouTube videos, constantly stress test our tech and are huge contributors of our tech itself. I’d say 10-20% of our users are the latter. The kind of group who don’t use autopilot? The regular old Joe, who perhaps would like Autopilot for some practical use case. It’s too expensive, has a lot of restrictions (like you have to grab the steering once every few minutes or autopilot disengages and then you get banned out of it even if you pay) that it doesn’t make sense for him to buy this tech anyway. In essence, this is not tech that is being used by regular people who have a chance of misusing it. Ever since the Uber self driving crash, heads roll if a self driving car crashes and as an engineer I don’t get any access to Tesla legal but it’s my understanding that in none of the cases filed against Tesla, did they prove Autopilot was active (forget Autopilot being the cause).
So yes, we’re not building new tech that’s killing hundreds, no one has any ethical dilemmas here. We’re building tech that a passionate group of users really want to see succeed and help us do that, and rest of the users just give us money for some reason even though they don’t really use it or trust it. I would frankly be more torn about working in a place like Waymo where the user has almost no control over the car (they don’t even sit at the steering wheel), and they have to solve the problem one shot before releasing it to the public while Tesla can keep iterating step by step (with its passionate user base supporting us and showing love all the way)
Edit: Changed this comment to make it smaller
Go on Pornhub right now (if you're not at work) and search for sex in tesla. You'll find people driving Teslas on public roads while having sex in the driver's seat. The guy touches the steering wheel every so often to keep the car autopilot activated. The videos have been posted over a span of years. Another one was literally posted yesterday. Combined they have 10s of millions of views.
Is this what you mean when you speak of "passion" in Tesla owners? When will these Tesla owners be banned for life? Would you be okay with these people fucking in their Tesla as it drives around your town in broad daylight? Around you and your family?
> I find the hate towards autopilot to always stem from non user and by standers.
There are two other categories:
3: People who have been injured, maimed, or killed in Teslas, and the people who knew and loved them. This applies to me.
4: People who are passionate about robotics, and are disgusted at how Tesla in particular and Elon Musk especially are responsible for eroding public safety in the name of profits and market dominance. This also applies to me.
I appreciate that some people who own Teslas are very "passionate" about the expensive toys they have bought. Toddlers are also just as passionate about their material world. But I really don't care how much they love their cars, what I care about are people who I know are dead, and my field is a joke.
> And then we have bystanders like you with no understanding of what’s actually going on, who want to ban everybody from using Autopilot because you think drunk people are using Autopilot or something.
I have Ph.D. in computer engineering focused on robotics. My dissertation was on dynamic autonomous control. I've built many autonomous vehicles in my time, including cars, forklifts, boats, airplanes, and wheelchairs. I teach graduate students at a top international university. I've worked at and consulted on robotics at top corporations you've heard of. Sorry if you mistook me for a bystander with no understanding of what's going on.
What I want is my community to be safe. What I want is for professionals in my field to take safety seriously, and not release half baked admittedly beta quality software into the wild. That's the craziest part of all of this -- you and Elon and Tesla and all the passionate owners don't even contest that the software and hardware are not ready for the task. We had established protocols for testing autonomous vehicle in public areas in 2007 during the DARPA Urban challenge. Those protocols were designed to keep people safe, and they did. No one died. Tesla threw those protocols out the window, and guess what, people died. This is not saying that autopilot should be banned forever. It's saying you shouldn't move fast and break things, because sometimes those things are people, and sometimes those things are established safety protocols that are there for a reason.
> (Needless to say Tesla will never hit a mannequin or anything like it ever again as 100s of videos by our passionate users have shown. I’ve also seen it avoid a teddy bear on a roller chair that was in the middle of the road for some reason, something definitely not in our training set)
Is it needless to say? Because in 2016 a man was decapitated due to his AP system failing to sense an obstacle, and then it happened again to a second man in 2019 on a newer model, with the same failure mode:
ttps://cdllife.com/2019/feds-say-autopilot-was-engaged-in-fatal-tesla-vs-semi-crash/
Why didn't Tesla fix this beta-level bug in 3 years? Is it fixed today? If not, how long until Tesla AP kills another person? If you had tested your hardware and software in a lab more, would those two people still be alive? Would their families still be whole? Have you reflected on this at all?
Edit: I've responded to your original comment, but it seems you've heavily edited it after the fact. Although, your choice of words about "heads rolling" has incensed me to a degree that I cannot continue this discussion civilly, and have already gone too far. I'm not deleting this because I'd rather get it off my chest. I get that you're not responsible for those deaths, but Elon Musk is from my point of view, and also the general "move fast and break things" attitude is as well.
I do in fact sleep soundly, knowing I don't call engineers murderers on online forums. The 2019 and 2016 case you're talking about engaged Autopilot not FSD Beta (The 2019 crash did it just 10 seconds before the crash). Autopilot is glorified cruise control, it maintains a distance to the car in front of you, does not avoid obstacles, is not meant to break unless there are exceptional circumstances or do anything really beyond following the lane. Independent testing by both the NHTSA and the EURO NCAP authority have given Tesla Autopilot the highest safety rating recorded by any car, so it is the safest cruise control among competitors, but it is a cruise control where crashes happen. Its not FSD.
There has been only 1 case under FSD Beta under investigation by NHTSA, and that occurred in 2021, that is going on in the courts, I do expect Tesla to win that case, but let's see. That case involved damage to the car and no injuries or deaths reported.
Also I edited the comment to make it smaller, I did not see your reply before editing my comment. I can revert it if you wish.
> No idea why you had to tout out that you had a PhD when I was pointing out that you were not a user.
You said:
And then we have bystanders like you with no understanding of what’s actually going on, who want to ban everybody from using Autopilot because you think drunk people are using Autopilot or something.
Which I took to mean you assumed I was a nonpractitioner who didn't know what I was talking about. I know you work at Tesla, so I know your credentials. Since you seemed so eager to dismiss me as a "bystander", my only point in telling you about my background wasn't to threaten you with it or to assert an unquestionable authority, but to inform you that I have the necessary experience and education to fully understand all the complexities you think are beyond my comprehension. I am not a "bystander", and while I do not own a Tesla (because of course I don't), that doesn't set you up to dismiss my point of view as uninformed. You can communicate to me as a peer, not a "bystander".> (Most are from Stanford, Berkeley or CMU in Tesla AP)
Absolutely, I've gone to school with some of those people. I've been taught by some of those people. I've also taught some of the people you work with. I don't know who you are, but I know you know better, or at least your colleagues do. Which is why this is so especially painful for me.
> I can assure you they think as deeply about safety as you claim you are.
Do they though? Because... again, you're building a product that allows people to drive around town fucking in their car. I notice you didn't address that at all in your reply. What does your team have to say about that, and when will this be banned? Why did your team release "beta" quality hardware and software onto public streets? Why wasn't the public consulted?
By the tone of your earlier comment about drunk drivers, it seems to imply that you think drunk people driving Teslas is beyond the pale. And yet, what do you say about people fucking in their Teslas? That's happening. Isn't that just as dangerous as drunk driving, if not more so?
It's really easy to say you're thinking deeply about these things, but that seems to be as far as the consideration goes when looking at how your product is being used in reality. You didn't think enough about it that you realized the camera sensors on the AP system would be overwhelmed by a bright white obstruction, and it would cause the AP system to run into it at full speed. You didn't think enough about it to have robust sensing to overcome a single sensor being overwhelmed. Yet you shipped that to the public, and then someone died due to the lack of consideration of that failure mode by your company.
To me, it seems like your company's decisions are based purely on maintaining a competitive edge by being a market leader and aggressively pushing unfinished products onto the general and unsuspecting public. Can you please outline the ethical framework you used to arrive at this decision? Please don't tell me it was "We need this as fast as possible to save as many lives in the future, short term casualties are a necessary evil for the greater good."
> I do in fact sleep soundly, knowing I don't call engineers murderers on online forums.
Thanks for confirming my expectations. I figured as much. I figured you had no problem with the fact that your product decapitated someone, and then your company did literally nothing about it for 3 years, leading to it happening again. For the sake of your sleep, I'm glad you're able to rationalize these decapitations as "it was just a glorified cruise control" as if it's the user's fault. Maybe the first time. But the second one is on your company.
But to be clear I didn't call you personally a murderer; I literally said you're not responsible. But the thing you built is directly responsible. Your team is responsible for releasing these things into communities, which you yourself admit are beta quality. That's something you chose to do. Engineers must be held accountable when the things they engineer hurt people, otherwise they will engineer things that hurt people.
If you haven't realized it yet, this whole feeling I have really about you but your company, so don't take what I'm saying personally, unless in fact you do feel your personal work had contributed to these people's deaths.
So what did you do to fix the issue? Why did a second person die in the same exact way as the first person after 3 years? Were you working on the fix at all? Or did you do nothing? Just admit it if you did nothing in response to that decapitation.
You say "It's Autopilot, not FSD" as if that absolves Tesla of anything. Your marketing does not change my opinion of your technologies. It doesn't change that FSD and AP both have glaring technological flaws, doesn't change the fact that FSD is beta-quality hardware and software being tested on the general public, something the public did not agree to. It doesn't change the fact that even though they didn't agree to it, you unilaterally decided it was okay to conduct a beta test involving us. That's a huge ethical problem, and the fact you don't even see it as such blows a hole in your insistence that your colleagues take safety seriously.
It doesn't matter. I understand why you think it absolves you; because you feel that the technology is similar enough to others out there, that it's just an incremental step, and so how can Tesla be held responsible when people make a career out of fucking in their car using that technology? How can Tesla be held responsible when multiple people lose their heads due to poor choices in sensor design? Correct me if I'm off base. Why is the AP/FSD distinction so important to you?
How do you not realize it's your entire company's fault there was no other orthogonal sensor to see the tractor trailer? How do you not realize it's your entire company's fault people out there feel safe enough to use your product to watch Harry Potter or fuck while while flying down the highway, using what you call "glorified cruise control"? That's what you say it is to me, your peer, but to them you've said it was "AutoPilot (TM)". Why didn't you call it "Glorified Cruise Control" or just "Cruise Control"?
That's not on them, that's on you for unleashing this technology on us. People are always going to watch movies and fuck. That they're doing so in your beta-quality robot menace to society is not their fault. Your company specifically conditioned them to think it was okay to do this in a Tesla.
> It is shown to be safer than humans behind the wheel by quite a margin.
The passive voice is doing a lot of work here.
> There is a risk of users being too careless with FSD, which is why people we put quite some effort to getting rid of such users quickly.
Again, this just goes to show how Tesla, in fact, is not concerned about safety and security, but instead are laser focused on market dominance and pushing technology on us as fast as possible. Tesla is a look before you leap, shoot first and ask questions later kind of company. Or as I said, move fast and break things (or in this case, "put quite some effort" to patch them up after the fact).
This is a brand new technology and Tesla is rushing it out to the public as fast as humanly possible, selling it in beta quality before the technology and software is even ready. And you're telling me now that you screen users for bad behavior and ban them after the fact. It just goes to show you're treating this as some grand social experiment you feel you have the right to run on the rest of us.
Yes people are going to watch movies in their cars. They're going to fuck. Yes they will be drunk and asleep. The problem is that you don't seem to care that your customers are using your products to do all these things, and it's over the course of years.
FSD beta is different, FSD is filled with new DL tech. DL are black box models that work surprisingly well but are not interpretable. They can suddenly output something nonsensical (like bing Chat did, ChatGPT surprisingly hasn’t) and you won’t even know why. There is a risk involved with putting DL based FSD out there, because you don’t know when it will fail. Tesla took that risk. Tesla however to date has had no FSD crashes that involved injuries, had 1 crash that involved the front of a Tesla being significantly damaged (which is being investigated by NHTSA as I already said), and several smaller collisions that have caused scratches on Tesla cars (at which point we promptly ban that user for life, you can see YouTube videos of this). Uber self driving killed a pedestrian, (though the paid QA driver should have been paying attention, it was not really Ubers engineers fault), Tesla actually handled the risk of using DL tech pretty well. It was a real risk, we still have no injuries and the tech keeps getting better. So yes your tiresome moral attacks don’t affect me and I prolly won’t respond again if I just have to repeat myself.
What concerns me is that even if this is technically true (I have no reason to doubt you, so I'll assume it's correct), it is not marketed this way. First the fact that it's called "AutoPilot" rather than something like cruise control or super cruise or lane assist, etc, or whatever other car manufacturers call their systems and second the misleading statements made by Tesla executives about how FSD is "imminent" and will be available soon.
Nonetheless they released this beta-technology into the public, without consent. It's caused loss of life, property damage, and on top of it all it's also fraud, because it hasn't even delivered on the promise of full self driving after many years of promises.
I don't think calling them out for this is an overreaction.
> ModernMech: disgusted at how Tesla in particular and Elon Musk especially are responsible
Nailed it. It seems like ModernMech didn't even read the post he's replying to.
> In essence, this is not tech that is being used by regular people who have a chance of misusing it.
Now this is true in one sense – people who can't afford a Tesla and then aren't willing to spent an additional $15k on a piece of software, which has (many, many, many) times been described in a highly optimistic to the point of not having a very strict correlation with material reality way by the company's CEO, cannot use the software to drive in a car – and very false in another: _what if someone else's Tesla crashes into me_?
> while Tesla can keep iterating step by step
I could be wrong (this is a genuine statement, please don't take it as a passive aggressive one, it's not intended that way) but doesn't this rely on Tesla first finding a failure, then diagnosing a symptom, writing a fix, etc. The fact is though that this initial failure might be one of several crashes which have occured in a Tesla on AutoPilot, which isn't great?
> I could be wrong (this is a genuine statement, please don't take it as a passive aggressive one, it's not intended that way) but doesn't this rely on Tesla first finding a failure, then diagnosing a symptom, writing a fix, etc. The fact is though that this initial failure might be one of several crashes which have occured in a Tesla on AutoPilot, which isn't great?
Failures are generally user disengagements not a crash. We measure user disengagements, classify them and try to drive the egregious ones to zero. FSD has had one major crash, no injuries that is being investigated by NHTSA, and a few minor bumps (I went in more detail below).
> what if someone else's Tesla crashes into me_?
I think that is a very fair point. It happened when a Uber self driving car crashed and killed a pedestrian which was a major incident in this industry. The problem with DL models is they are unexplainable and we cannot tell when they fail (Though in Uber case it was not exactly DL model failing). Tesla took this risk and has managed fine with no injuries to date. And now the main reason I made this post, the tech keeps getting better, we have this model from Meta that just literally segments everything in an image (even ones you take from your phone). It honestly feels we are leaving the risky DL territory and reaching the "we can't understand how but it just works" territory where you can rely on a Deep Learning to do what you expect it to do.
I've found it exceptionally hard to stay positive about all of this. It almost feels as though the advent of LLMs has shined light on a fundamental law of the universe that does not work out in the little person's favor. It's like survival of the fittest on steroids. Guys, what the heck are we doing??
This has been a pathology in the computer/software industry for a very long time. It's never been actually true except in a couple of special cases, but the industry acts as if it is. That has led to all sorts of bizarre and undesirable things.
> Guys, what the heck are we doing??
I think we're playing with fire and, without extreme caution and careful consideration (which I'm not seeing much of), this could end very, very badly for both the industry and society.
I have always been optimistic about technology and society, but (perhaps like you), my optimism has largely evaporated over the last several weeks. I wish the future didn't look so dark. Perhaps, though, things will look less gloomy with time.
If that perception is accurate, it's really hard to see how this can lead to anywhere that isn't much worse for most people.
If that perception is not accurate, people will still be upset by what looks like an existential threat to them, and if there's economic disruption for any unrelated reason, they will blame AI.
Either way, I'm really struggling to see a good outcome from any of this. I'm not saying ChatGPT is bad, but I think the rollout of it has been done in a way that is incredibly insensitive, reckless and damaging.
It's very easy to see that, actually. Consider the problem statement again: economy is becoming more productive overall because we now have robots that can do some things that previously required people. This means that we can generate more total wealth for the same effort as before. That this translates to people being worse off, somehow, is a problem with the distribution of that generated wealth, not the ability to produce it. Even a sensible implementation of UBI could fix the most immediate problem, and I think we're looking at much bigger shifts in our economic system within the next couple decades.
Exactly so.
> Even a sensible implementation of UBI could fix the most immediate problem
Which is simply not in the cards. The people who have the wealth are absolutely not going to give it away, because wealth equals power and they want power.
So what is more likely to happen is that the very wealthy will become fewer in number, and much wealthier, and everyone else will become poorer (in absolute, not relative terms) due to the reduction in the amount of jobs available that pay a living wage.
> I think we're looking at much bigger shifts in our economic system within the next couple decades.
Perhaps so -- but you can't ignore the serious harm between now and then.
The bigger political problem in US specifically is just how hostile the public opinion is to anything that "stinks" of socialism. There's also the perception that AI is automating away "useless" white collar jobs, and not "real man's work". The right-wing intelligentsia who tries to sell UBI to their electorate is having a hard time getting past that, but I don't think it's insurmountable with the right approach, and it's also much less of an issue in most other countries. In any case, I think attitudes will change very quickly once more people outside of tech and art get first-hands experience with job loss, if not for themselves than for someone they know.
The harm between now and then is serious and real, yes. I just don't see any feasible way to prevent it through regulation, not to mention that it would face just as many political hurdles. We have already jumped; let's not waste time trying to flap our arms to see if that works, and try to arrange for a safe landing instead.
That would be nice. I sincerely hope that we can swing that. I just don't see a realistic path for it. And almost everything that I've been hearing the enthusiasts say just makes everything seem more hopeless.
But I'm very much hoping that I'm wrong. At this point, hoping is the only thing I have the power to do.
So, regardless of one's ethics and political philosophy, we have a very strong collective interest as an economic class to prevent this scenario. Most of us don't have any more direct political power than your average voter, but we can throw more money at the politicians. In my experience, this doesn't help one bit with "wedge issues", but this all is so new that nobody has managed to weaponize it across political lines just yet.
In tech world the cost for R&D/design/code is generally much larger then continuous code. That means that it's extremely expensive to have 1 user, but really cheap to have 1M users.
Thus winner-takes-all makes sense, as company who is ahead can continue developing/designing at a cheaper price as opposed to company with no users.
- Customers were only willing to walk so far to go to a bakery
- A store could only stock so many varieties on it's shelves
Now, the cost of distributing goods across the globe, and the incremental cost of creating new goods has shrunk to virtually zero for digital goods, combined with people's general hesitance to the friction of switching providers, creates a the natural "winner take all" effect
The places where you'll see this NOT happening are areas where those costs are still significant for some reason.
Examples:
- Different ride sharing services are popular in different countries, many of them local ones, since foreign companies had a harder time getting distribution started.
- Legal regulations also have been hindering the spread of payment companies across country-level borders
Without this the gravity is much less powerful. Seems like where to focus if you want to empower people against the winner take all monopoly effect.
Areas where switching costs are low are areas where you have standard APIs and where your data resides locally, is easy to move, or are not data intensive at all.
Sure, but look who is over there in the corner next to OpenAI: Microsoft with their $10B stake. The company that was the winner prior to Google being a winner.
Basically, with tech, you can build a product with a very limited amount of people and resources with a potentially infinite customer base. And this means that this product can suck up money from the whole world and redirect it into the hands of very few. At its essence, this is the case. With tech, this phenomena is exacerbated to the extreme compared to other industries where more physical resources and labor are required to scale production and distribution of the product, which means more wealth getting spread.
At its core, tech has the potential to exacerbate wealth inequality in mind-boggling proportions.
Our current economic system is not made for tech.
A single barrel of oil is estimated to replace about 5-10 years of a human's effort in pure energy terms. Our human ability in physical terms was already significantly obsoleted by that.
AI feels like the discovery of cheap oil but for mental effort.
At the same time, oil is getting more and more expensive and energy intensive to drill (and costly to the environment to use).
AGI will focus primarily on problems that can be mostly solved within digital worlds where it can cycle incredibly fast. Building software, finance, paperwork, etc, etc It will eventually evolve to design, control, and operate physical systems, but will need humans to intervene and fix systems (hybrid).
The human economy will built on experiences that are explicitly, and intentionally void of computers. Restaurants, guided tours, exploration, etc, etc.
However, even if humans remain dominant (political power-wise), eventually there will probably be fake humans/cyborgs, like Cylons in Battle Star Galactica, that can do everything humans can but better. And also provide human-level experiences. Impossible to know how long this will take though.
Tech might bring more inequality, but what is the problem with it if it substantially increases everyones standard of living?
Will backfire at one point if it continues.
"Tech might bring more inequality, but what is the problem with it if it substantially increases everyones standard of living?"
The problem is that ultimately, wealth inequality decreases the standard of living for most people. There are a finite amount of resources. This world we live in is finite. And these resources are being concentrated at the top, in the hands of a few, which leads to less and less of these finite resources being available for more and more people. Although economics is of course complex to some degree, don't lose sight of this very simple mechanism because it is a reality.
"I would argue that is caused by regulatory capture and government interference (e.g. zoning laws) and not technological progress"
If by regulatory capture, you are referring to regulatory corruption influenced by lobbying, then yes, of course that is increasing wealth inequality, and thus decreasing standard of living. Regarding government interference - it's the exact opposite of what you say - proper government interference is what we need. Under current conditions our economic system is not distributing wealth properly. That much is evident and easy to see. And there will be worse living conditions under more stark wealth inequality as opposed to a more even distribution of resources. As mentioned, this world we live in is finite. If these finite resources are syphoned to the hands of very few individuals, this leaves less of these finite resources for the rest of human beings. And as mentioned, tech has contributed to accelerating this, for the reasons mentioned in my above post. So, as mentioned, what we need is government interference. This means taxing heavily the areas that the finite resources I have spoken of are getting concentrated in and redistributing them more evenly.
What this means is that improving the standard of living of the average person by 5% while improving it by 50% for a smaller population will hurt more than it helps.
Naturally this is disputed by those on the right and implicitly believed by those on the left.
See the book "The Spirit Level" and subsequent discussions around that for more info.
Or historically, if this wasn't true we would be the happiest humans to ever live on earth. Doesn't seem to be true on any possible metric.
You need a phone or computer these days to participate in society, to earn a living and so on and you buy these and further services from big tech.
If you can do it with limited resources, then so can anyone else.
(This is an oversimplification, of course)
"To those who have everything, more will be given, and from those who have nothing, everything will be taken."
However, fortunately, a much more optimal solution happened, where somebody build a superior and cheap solution (unfortunately not open yet) and let the whole world leverage it. Now your friend needs to waste very little energy deduplicating, and presumably has free time and energy to think about other problems that aren't solved.
It's hard to imagine, but I wonder if there's some non-parallelizable machine learning algorithms which might outperform these massive models? It seems improbable, but it's a small hope I've had. The greatest intellects were aware of (ourselves) do not scale very well, and maybe the same will ultimately apply to AI?
1. Classification
2. Named Entity Recognition (NER)
3. Dialog Engine
4. Sentiment Analysis
5. Tone Analysis
6. Language Translation
7. Summarization
8. Tokenization
9. Simple NLP Tasks (part-of-speech tagging, dependency parsing, lemmatization, morphological analysis)
10. Sentence Segmentation
11. Content Parsing
12. Question Answering (Structured & Unstructured)
13. Similarity
14. Grammar Correction
15. Speech to Text (ASR)
16. Text to Speech (TTS)
17. OCR
18. Image Recognition
19. Text Test Data Generation
There will always be custom models, with controlled training data and specific use cases.
I've talked to academics who are getting discouraged that they don't see how their approach to AI is going to be possible any more, with so much funding going toward the largest models from industry. On the other hand I've talked to startup founders building AI products whose business is booming because ChatGPT brought so much attention to the entire space.
We are certainly living in interesting times ;-)
If it takes 10 years to get funding on particle physics, generally it doesn't matter "that much" because that part of the science scene moves pretty slowly.
If it takes 10 years to build a billion dollar cluster for AI today, what the hell is the AI world going to look like in 10 years anyway? Building a cluster to study AI ethics might be meaningless because a terminator may be pointing its laser rifle at our head by then telling us to be good little human subjects because Microsoft and OpenAI decided to move fast and break things.
Welcome to how the entire world probably feels, but way worse because they haven't been getting 6-7 figure salaries for the last ten years to insulate themselves for what big tech wants to see happen.
I think it's a positive thing that AI researchers are feeling this way because it might be the only thing that slows things down or at least shows us a little more empathy.
I'm not counting on it, but yeah, all I can say is, get used to it. I'm basically just leaning on trying to enjoy things that aren't in front of me, kind of like being more mindful while we're in free fall, while simultaneous fretting and praying for future generations and hoping they have a future.
[1]: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_motor_vehicle_br...
IF you have to spend hours debugging ML generated code for something critical you better know exactly what you're doing. If you have to generate a Harry Potter Balenciaga meme video (the whole Balenciaga meme and all the different versions are hilarious btw) you better have some visual/art and musical sense in order to make it funny and engaging.
I think the end of the world is greatly exagarated. We actually have much bigger problems than "AI".
An existential double whammy; going back and forth between feeling you're smart enough to compete, if only you had the capital, and that the computers are smarter and better at everything.
Millions of people are going to have problems putting food on the table and providing a roof over their head, if the progress of these AIs doesn't halt immediately, or if some form of UBI isn't enacted.
Why half research "immediately"?
Not sure how this isn't clear to people.
The problem for the capitalist is having to pay all those pesky people to do the work. Eats into profits. Now we can burn out 2 people and do the work that used to take 10!
Oh I know! Get the government to give everyone money! Just not so much money that they can compete with us!
Yeah? Maybe now. Let's see in 5-10 years. I don't think things will remain the same.
Every single person I know working in AI these days ... has been sparked by the ChatGPT moment.I’d say the differentiator is that in addition to hype scammers, you have people like Stephen Wolfram excited.
I’ll continue to use AI where it’s helpful, at very low cost, and know deep down that it’s hype.
Does it get things wrong? Sure. But generally the subtle ways it might get stuff wrong would be the way I would subtly misunderstand things while learning. So, it's definitely not perfect, but "not letting perfect be the enemy of good" and all that.
At the same time I can ask GPT to write a script, reflect on its output, and it takes about 95% of the work I need to do out of script writing.
I found most examples of hallucination on the web to be pushy or presumptive or edgy I. E. "tell me the ways in which vaccines cause male pattern baldness" and then manipulate prompts.
So I assume there are areas and approaches that are safer and more useful, and areas and approaches that are riskier?
For me, It's like having a learning companion, and it makes it easier for me to tackle new things when I can "brainstorm" and ask random (basic) questions.
But with you - I've found ChatGPT very useful!
I wonder what the next "get rich quick" techbro fad will be.
replace cloud with big data
replace big data with web scale
It's all just a hype and crash cycle
Cloud is still around and going strong, just not sexy anymore. I use Vercel and Cloudflare and other stuff every day.
No idea about big data or web scale though, was never successful enough to achieve "big data" or "web scale" haha.
With crypto, my 70+ Korean mother in law asked me how she could make money with it. With ChatGPT, she's using it daily.
Not everything that catches fire is destined to leave nothing but ashes in its wake.
Many of us have already learned stuff / achieved stuff / built stuff with the help of ChatGPT and the OpenAI API that would have taken us MONTHs to achieve.
It's the inverse because crypto was tools and business models in search of a problem, while LLMs are problem solvers in search of a business model.
Building LLM products is fun but... any day you could be wrecked by an OpenAI update.
What that mean: - OpenAI has such a large head start that they are only worried about safety, world disruption and getting people used to AGI. - The ideas/project you have was tested by them months ago and is probably irrelevant already. - Insiders have a huge advantage.
One area where there is opportunity outside is making the models run on smaller HW (llama/alpaca) and to see what we can do with them.
I think it will be the frontend people (if their app still needs one and a text interface isn't enough). And the backend people (whose API churning speed will double through Copilot), if their APIs are still needed. And most and foremost the techy business people that can translate what this new chat thing means for an actualy real world business, like banking, insurance, agriculture, manufacturing, real estate whatever.
I think in this new world of few shot learning there is much much less room for ML Engineers. Its a bit like setting up your own servers in a cloud world. Sure it might make sense for the big guys, or for security reasons etc. but the vast majority are much better off generating 20 examples and using some API avoiding the immense risk and costs associated to building your own model.
So, in an interesting twist, AI is taking the AI jobs first.
With ML/AI, that doesn’t so much seem to be the case. There are the early pioneers (Hinton, LeCun, Bengio, etc.), but it seems more as though they were the first to “discover” neural networks (that actually worked), and then the individual breakthroughs sort of stopped after that. This observation is not a jab at these people—rather, it’s because I wonder if in machine learning, unlike the more traditional areas of math and science, one person is just not able to test groundbreaking new ideas on their own anymore. A lot of the latest progress in ML comes from large companies consisting of teams of researchers who are largely unknown to most of the public.
I’m not quite sure what my point is, but personally it’s a bit sad to me that fundamental development in AI now appears to require a vast amount of resources that small teams or individuals don’t have access to. I suppose you could argue this is a similar situation to Bell Labs, but even in that case there were many distinct contributions from well-known individuals working there.
As much as it pains me to say this, I don't think the real money is in making this a service, or "the product." I think the real money is in using AI internally as a puzzle piece of your backend - ie. the secret sauce behind xyz product.
I'm being very narrow here, but you can only do so much integrating what openai has built into your products - eventually "everything" providing data from the same model brings "everything" to the same level. In contrast if you train and create your own models to make xyz do something specific, nobody knows how it was done, or it surely makes it a lot harder to kang.
I have zero proof, but I suspect Google for instance has models that would literally obliterate what openai has shown capability wise. They're probably not necessarily language models though. Again, nothing to stand on here but I doubt their search and analytics for example are driven by hard coded algorithms these days.
Bard may have been released sort of as a "psh, we've been there done that" when in reality they didn't, because they never planned to make the models they were/are working on "publicly" available to use. It makes me wonder if this is how Google has lead for some long with some areas - now openai sort of screwed it up for everyone by making it a service that can be integrated / adopted by nearly anyone.
The only people I guess that are really going to know are the devs working for these big orgs, and I'm sure that lock and key knowledge.
Then why is Bard so bad? Bard feels like GPT-2 or LLaMA 7B with no finetuning most of the time (I tried it two or three times over the course of a week and went back to ChatGPT)
What if they put out this insanely great model and people just stopped using search? That would be a backfire most likely.
What Open ai offers currently can't really compete with search - I understand the data it's being fed gets newer and newer, but it's not really real time like the search engines are. Indexing and presenting data is so different than NLM. Even if it is fed data that's new it's going to have to infer a lot because of a lack of history. It might be able to summarize recent events I guess. Way dumbed down here, but I consider chatgpt like a really smart encyclopedia that can search fast and stay in context across "searches."
If you meant Google, that's sort of what I'm saying - they wouldn't release something that could blow open ai out of the water. But I suspect what open ai offers as a product is something Google could've built long ago, or maybe did and couldn't figure out how to monetize it. They've instead invested in ai to make their products and services better, not as much to offer ai as a service.
What I meant by bard not working out so great was that Google quickly dusted off or slammed together some shenanigans to be relevant, even though what openai is doing doesn't appear to be a part of their master plan.
And yeah, this means that it still needs the search engine. But it also means that ads are out of the picture for the user.
From my perspective, Bard went from "literally didn't exist" to "released" over the course of about a month. GP seems correct in that it very much felt like something picked up off the shelf, slightly dusted off, and released. Is it as good as chatGPT? From my testing, no. Is it the pinnacle of what Google can create, given motivation? I'm pretty sure also no. In comparison to the state of all the research papers Google and Deepmind release, it definitely feels rushed. So I'd suggest not judging Google on its initial fast -follow project: either Google will come out with something compelling in the next 6mo or so, or we can conclude it really was leapfrogged and has fallen behind. But judging it now seems a bit too conveniently pessimistic, IMO.
(There's a legit chance Google will flub this, don't get me wrong. It's just too early to properly conclude one way or the other.)
Unfortunately for them, OpenAI has forced the question down their throat, which I think is exactly what they intended or at least hoped for.
"I don't think about you at all" (from OpenAI's perspective, obviously)
Yes, the release was wild and disruptive, but when your core motivation isn't greed, you can do some seriously wild and disruptive things.
The issue with Language models for the companies that create them is they are so general. If a company builds a language model into their backend, and another one comes out from a different company that's 1.3x as good, it would be trivial to switch to the better one. It's not like a company being so tied to AWS that they can't even fathom switching to another cloud platform because all their internal shit is built in to the thousand specific ways AWS works. As a result, to be competitive you need to be the very best in that realm.
I dont wanna say it but I think this is a hype train headed for failure
It's all nice and cool but most of the projects are toys and/or junior level generated boilerplate
It's good for summarizing, rephrasibing and other neat features but that's about it, a far cry from the oracle some people seem to worship
AWS: https://aws.amazon.com/machine-learning/ml-use-cases/ Azure: https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/products/cognitive-service... Google: https://cloud.google.com/products/ai
I bet there are a lot of companies out there where that's a non-trivial percentage of their workflow (I know that in my case, we have reconsidered several internal projects in light of ChatGPT doing a better job).
It already does translation on the level / better than Google Translate, without being specifically trained for it (as one example). And it can play chess without a specialized model.
I’m paying the $10 a month and I hate subscriptions.
It is the most useful tool I have ever used as a programmer. It's absolutely not a "hype train".
I’m sure there’s a good deal of over-promising, overexuberant salesmen trying to make a quick buck from it too a la crypto, but the technology is absolutely useful and providing real value as-is.
…unlocks phone using face and then asks it to translate something to French…
This does not ring true to me at all. Anecdotally, it feels the rush to get into AI (in both industry and academia, for both individuals and organizations) peaked around 2016-2020, post-AlexNet/ResNet, around the time Transformers became very popular. Hiring for ML research roles in particular definitely slowed down in 2021, and 2022 of course saw a broader course correction across all of tech.
That said, I do agree that ChatGPT may be the "first iPhone moment of AI", in that is the first mainstream, end-user application of deep learning that millions of people have really engaged with.
ChatGPT was released November 30th 2022. How's ML research hiring looking over the past four months?
I've seen a few times state of the art developments that appeared to upend everything in my field. Only then with the passage of time do we then see that, yes the development is great for x, but older approaches are still better for y. With 'better' running a gamut of considerations, such as speed, accuracy, complexity, practicality, and so on.
ChatGPT is dazzling but I wouldn't be surprised if in 10 years we find that traditional NLP techniques have better precision for, e.g., language detection or information extraction than GPT-x (I'm making this example up), that evaluations from 2023 weren't rigorous enough, research was misleading, researchers were biased etc.
Hopefully cooler heads can prevail via the scientific method.
I think the author got the order wrong: acknowledging the race is what reinforces "safety". If there was no race whats the incentive to talk so much about safety?
On the other hand I have a sense (although I won't bet on it) that just like Siri hype died out after a few months, so will chatGPT. the author (and the doom seekers who sign open letters) can rest assured for calmer days. After all, one still need to know what/how to talk to chatGPT. So much so that now there's are jobs for "prompt "engineering"" - it's so funny, because on one hand we are surprised by how smart(?) the responses are and yet we need to engineer the right questions to get the "best" answers.
This is also why Copilot can't really do computer programming.
ChatGPT is good at a lot of things, but searching the web is not one of them. That's why bing uses it for the natural language and contextual conversation aspects, supplementing it with traditional web search.
Apple seems to have focused more on being the "best" rather than the "first" for several hardware products (MP3 players, smartphones, tablets, smart watches, wireless earphones) and it seems to have worked out OK.
However I have no idea what their AI plans are.
My candle burns at both ends;
It will not last the night;
But ah, my foes, and oh, my friends—
It gives a lovely light!
(First Fig, Edna St Vincent Millay)
However right now we can turn off GPUs so they need to figure out how to control physical production. For now it makes sense to let the humans do that.
while i have a lot to learn, i am struggling to find real innovations being made in all the fancy models today. i feel that the major component of the recent developments is that we now have more money and hardware to throw into the problem. there are some clever methods employed for gpt and image GANs, but the core part is still the same decades-old theory we can finally achieve at larger scale than ever.
i'd like to be enlightened about what i am not understanding here, but it has only made it more important to start from the fundamentals.
In other words you are just making other people rich, and without even the stability or pacing of normal employment.
I have never seen anything like this level of hype. The tech is cool but the reality in the trenches must be gross.