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quantified

5,831 karma · joined May 24, 2019

Started programming 6502 in grade school. Stack always getting better.
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quantified··on A permanent freezing in of wealth is just one of many possible ASI scenarios
In the abstract, yes, things can be created through applying energy to matter (e.g. transforming land, timber, mortar, sand and metal into a house). Wealth via debt is the financial abstraction/technology, the things that pay the debt back involve energy or raw resource (land, water rights, mineral rights) somewhere. Bitcoin is interesting, it doesn't generate wealth. It's more a store of wealth, cash in a currency people have wanted in on. When the price goes down, it subtracts wealth. It's just an abstraction that has caught people's attention.
quantified··on [dead]
It's his ship and his responsibility, or if nothing else his choice of captain and crew. Definitely reflects on him.
quantified··on Silicon Valley misreads science fiction and undermines democracy
How do you ever choose your boss at work? Never. Oh, by quitting that job and getting another? That's called "moving" when applied to politics. Which is super unattractive in much of regular life, unless you don't need people.
quantified··on Meta CTO told employees AI gains should go into more work
Why does anyone believe more tech makes less work? It makes different work, but the 50-hour week remains. More AI will never bring less work much less "abundance".
quantified··on Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'
Sorry, which objection are you referring to?
quantified··on Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'
For a mutual insurance company, everyone is betting that it's going to happen somewhere sometime, that's why they pay the premiums. There is also not "winning" and "losing", there is no particular event like a known game, and you only get paid to cover a loss. You could squint and say it's taking 100:1 odds (or whatever your coverage-to-premium ratio is), but you have the incentive to play since if an event happens TO YOU, you really LOSE, and if you don't take a bet you just don't take the bet.
quantified··on Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'
This is one of the huge problems with allowing betting. Of course, people could collude without the formal marketplace, but just as social media provides really painful detrimental cons along with its pros, so do betting platforms.
quantified··on Some car companies are operating without regard for a declining customer base
Cargo e-bikes seem like the ideal platform for fair-weather suburbia.
quantified··on Some car companies are operating without regard for a declining customer base
As someone who enjoys riding their own bike, but uses their car for needs that cannot be met by bikes, I don't think this is just grievance. You can be sour about reality.

SF in particular can be a pain in the butt. There are scearios where public transit works, and many where it doesn't. Biking there from anywhere else is not viable. I need to drive into it in cases when transit doesn't work, and the city is hostile to me trying to spend money. Great for some of its own residents, not for all of them, definitely not for visitors.

quantified··on The Scary, Scary Singularity
Can you expound a bit? Opportunity for what, and who? Are they the same Sams and Elons who talk up "abundance"?
quantified··on 'Difficult' to be hopeful: How people survive under inflation
That sounds sideways or wrong. Poor people don't necessarily have debts. They don't have income or assets. Indebted people like inflation because their debt is worth less _if they can find increased income to pay it down_.

Inflation is bad if you _don't_ have assets. Asset prices inflate too. Your car becomes more valuable simply because other cars are more valuable. Etc. Income is what is stuck because it's an agreement between you and another party to pay you, and that needs to be renegotiated.

quantified··on The Scary, Scary Singularity
The "abundance means money is meaningless" is obviously complete BS. If that was true, AI would not be seen as a path to vast individual or institutional wealth.
quantified··on Younger generations may be more cancer-prone
Growing up in the environment we've made for them, I'm hardly surprised. But, let's see more peer-reviewed work on this.
quantified··on Fast access to Trump's 'Truth Social' posts goes on sale for $100k per month
I've spent my years trying to think productively. You've got one good idea, I'm confident that there are many more.
quantified··on Fast access to Trump's 'Truth Social' posts goes on sale for $100k per month
You can't rule out some accounting fraud.
quantified··on The Rise of Zero Fertility Desire in China
Your take is a little sour, but I agree with the direction. If your children (or nephews/nieces) matter as your bodily protection and old-age assistance, you want to raise grownups. Children are indeed a burden, they're cute and fun but that's a luxury like exotic pets. Once the larger society will provide care, or you just don't care about extending into the future, why bother? At that point, if you have contraception, even bodily urges in the now don't create children. Which is why polulation-maxxers hate contraceptives.
quantified··on Trouble at lunchtime as Hong Kong private club spat escalates
There's an archive link in the comments now, but the whole thing seems petty and boring.
quantified··on YC Startup Guaranteed Job Interviews for People Getting Company Logo Tattoo
Alcohol may have been involved.
quantified··on Billionaire Shopify CEO thinks poor Canadians shouldn't be able to vote
Exporting luxury goods is fine for socialists. They are clear about who's in the in-group and who isn't, the out-group must fend for themselves. Socialism isn't against private property, it's about production means and tending towards managing wealth for common good. Your car is your car though, consumption is still individual.
quantified··on US DOE to Convert Uranium Enrichment Facility into Data Center Campus
Love the idea of earthmoving on an uncleaned Superfund site.
quantified··on Kalshi attacks a Wisconsin law banning election bets as 'voter suppression'
It's a little easier to think about when you ignore people's addictive tendencies in the large.

It also takes a blind spot re the forces that will influence events based on betting. I don't care about point-shaving in college basketball (some great stories there, see the Bad Sports episode [https://www.imdb.com/title/tt15402912/]. But other real-world outcomes are too important.

quantified··on Peter Thiel: The Education of a Libertarian
> I stand against... the ideology of the inevitability of the death of every individual.

Ok. Stars die. This is insane.

quantified··on A missing underscore sent innocent man to prison for 18 months
There was evidence. Just not pointing to him.
quantified··on A missing underscore sent innocent man to prison for 18 months
It would take anyone reviewing the evidence noticing the double underscore. Part of what makes this infuriating is that it's the type of error we as individuals are prone to making or not noticing on some days.

As the defendant, I'd have been terrified that all this seems to be me yet isn't.

quantified··on US DOT deleting bike lane references
Real Republicans do not bicycle. Plain and simple.
quantified··on The Economist interviews Elon Musk
That chain of events assumes that course correction loops don't occur. Producers won't overproduce for more than a fiscal quarter, maybe two. It'll be messier than that. And investors will pull their money out of anything unprofitable and put it somewhere else. There will be somewhere else.

Think about this social disruption: if money doesn't have meaning, what does the plutocracy do to stay relevant and keep their islands and relative wealth? How will those things be defined?

quantified··on Uncle Bob does not read the code anymore
Beginning of another. Proper cusp here.
quantified··on The Economist interviews Elon Musk
That's the argument, but everyone who runs a factory knows not to run it so hard that profits dip. No one will allow their profits to dip. As costs for some tbings decline, prices might decline or might not, depends on the mood. Eventually, the need for profits to eternally grow will make any "abundance" disappear.

Everything is still run for profit. To shift into abundance mode, we need to give up this economic system entirely. Become the Star Trek economy, not Star Wars or Dune. Maybe the path is to have every government, or the most influential, become so f'd up with things like debt that they decide to blow up the current system so they don't have to actually pay anything back? I mean, the ability to deficit spend shows that actually having money is irrelevant anyway.

quantified··on The Economist interviews Elon Musk
Which he isn't. I will bet $1000 against him, choosing 10 years as my number for "few". Gains accrue to owners, and relatively few own things. By the same token, UBI is a non-starting concept, a government choked for funds by its own trillions of dollars of debt and everyone seeking to pay no taxes has nothing to offer in terms of support for its citizens.

No one can 3-d print their own food or land. Start there. Clothing for free? Huh? Solar panels and batteries (ie energy) for free? Etc.

quantified··on Did Trump Officials Rig High School Contest Against Sikh Finalist?
Leadership of the country, corresponding to many but perhaps not a majority of citizens to say nothing of inhabitants.

That's all pedantic, of course.

The "we" you are referring to isn't the "we" pretending though.

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