Kalshi attacks a Wisconsin law banning election bets as 'voter suppression'
npr.org
npr.org
I know this is hard to conceive of, but there was a time when there were no gambling ads on TV! The crazy part? The other half of the ads you see on TV (pharmaceuticals) weren't there either!
From nicotine to gambling harmful habits that our society had managed to marginalize have gotten a fresh coat of tech slapped on them and seemingly escaped all constraints.
I have a friend who gave up cigarettes for ecigs but he is actually doing it for the nicotine, saves him a fortune, he was smoking a pack a week in NYC.
My thing is, how healthy are ecigs compared to real cigarettes really?
You're more likely to get heavy metals, volatile organic compounds, pesticides and toxic industrial chemicals than a surprise dose of THC.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/nearly-2000-chemic...
Option B: nicotine plus a lot of really bad stuff.
You're seriously questioning which is better?
I think you are right that cigs are less healthy, but I have to wonder if megadosing nicotine isn't also a pretty big problem.
Wikipedia: "The recent rise in the use of electronic cigarettes, many forms of which are designed to be refilled with nicotine-containing "e-liquid" supplied in small plastic bottles, has renewed interest in nicotine overdoses, especially the possibility of young children ingesting the liquids."
And not just ingesting, but absorbing it through the skin.
Also: "Serious nicotine poisoning seems normally prevented by the fact that relatively low doses of nicotine cause nausea and vomiting, which stops users from further intake."
Kids can die from getting into all sorts of chemicals, nicotine isn't something especially poisonous or dangerous. They just need proper containers and handling like many other common chemicals and drugs and solvents.
It's not immediately dangerous, that's for sure.
My concern is more about long-term effects which I don't think we have good data on. Most of our data on the health effects of nicotine are centered on smoking or chewing.
What we do know about nicotine is it's addictive and it can generate a pretty high tolerance. And I think there are studies linking it to an increased risk of stroke.
I'm not trying to take away nicotine. I think it's reasonable to ban the sale of nicotine products to kids but otherwise I don't really care about people accessing it. I also think it's reasonable to research and understand the risks of taking it, even if such research is ultimately just informative.
This is true, but this is also about short term poisoning. I'm more thinking about the long term problems. Alcohol will also stop many cases of acute poisoning through similar nausea and vomiting. However, prolonged use is still bad for your health.
My assumption, which could be faulty, is a lot more of the nicotine in the vape gets absorbed vs a cigarette.
[1] https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/how-much-nicotine-...
The nicotine in smoke is bound to plant matter which you are likely to exhale. The dose you get is basically entirely from whatever gets stuck on the lungs, but even then it's still bound to the plant matter, so there will be some that just even if attached to the lung won't cross over.
Contrast that to the vape juice, which is water, glycol, nicotine (and flavors). In that case, the nicotine isn't bound to anything and as the water/glycol evaporates you are left with just the nicotine on the lung.
It's true that a large portion of the vape smoke doesn't attach to the lung at all. But my presumption is that a hit from a vape carries more nicotine and that nicotine also more readily gets absorbed by the lungs.
I don't know if it's exactly 10x. I presume it's higher.
Anyone who smokes has experienced feeling sick from nicotine and quickly learn to avoid it because it sucks.
Vapes make it a lot easier to blow past that amount of consumption.
> Ecigs worry me the most since you really cannot tell what someone truly has in there, it could be nicotine, it could be “legal” THC or other random nonsense, I wouldnt know, it all looks the same.
You finally learned their one weird trick. Instead of just putting nicotine in ecigs, they add some more expensive ingredients like THC and maybe some meth or heroin and not tell people or charge them more than they charge for nicotine. For reasons.
That’s like worrying about Halloween candy being spiked with LSD. It’s irrational and w waste of money for no reason so it doesn’t happen.
The heavy metals, pesticides, and toxic chemicals in ecigs do though. If researchers pulled 64 types of Halloween candy off store shelves and found a bunch of LSD in every single sample I'd say you should be worried. https://refractor.io/health-wellbeing/unknown-chemicals-vape...
Direct health implications of e-cigarette use: a systematic scoping review with evidence assessment https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11317248/
"Conclusion: Smokers or former smokers who switch to e-cigarettes may reduce their exposure to carcinogens and lower their risk of developing severe health issues associated with conventional smoking. However, in healthy individuals who have never smoked traditional cigarettes, the use of e-cigarettes introduces several cardiovascular and respiratory adverse effects. These findings suggest that while e-cigarettes can be a strategic harm reduction tool for smokers, they are not a safe option for non-smokers."
E-Cigarette Use, Small Airway Fibrosis, and Constrictive Bronchiolitis https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10137322/
"CONCLUSIONS: After thorough evaluation for other potential etiologies, vaping was considered to be the most likely common causal etiology for all patients due to the temporal association of symptomatic chronic lung disease with e-cigarette use and partial improvement in symptoms after e-cigarette cessation. In this series, we associate the histopathologic pattern of small airway–centered fibrosis, including constrictive bronchiolitis, with vaping, potentially defining a clinical and pathologic entity associated with e-cigarette use. (Funded in part by the National Institutes of Health.)"
E-cigarettes and Vaping: A Smoking Cessation Method or Another Smoking Innovation? https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9833272/
"Abstract: [cut] With well-known health risks from traditional smoking, e-cigarettes are viewed as a safe way of smoking, appealing more to youth. Additionally, extensive e-cigarette marketing boosted by the internet and fame has resulted in worries that e-cigarettes can lead to a renormalization of cigarette smoking and can be used as a new method to consume vaporized drugs. Although the concern that e-cigarettes are as harmful as traditional smoking has been raised, youth and most healthcare providers remain relatively unaware. [cut]"
> Use empiricism
> Smokers or former smokers who switch to e-cigarettes may reduce their exposure to carcinogens and lower their risk of developing severe health issues associated with conventional smoking.
It's a Chesterton's Oscillating Fence, on a generation time scale.
It's a stretch to say that gambling is truly anyone's best option, so 'realizing' isn't the right word here. I'd go with "delusionalizing."
I mean, consider the lottery for example. For most people their odds of ever having $100 million is zero. The lottery gives them a 1 in 300 million chance though. Having any chance at all to get that kind of money is worth a few dollars to a lot of people so the lottery remains popular. The problem we have right now is that people feel so helpless that they feel forced to use gambling to help pay for basic things like rent, medication, and education. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/21/healthcare-students-turn-to-...
Gambling rarely pays off for them, but it gives them a chance, and a small number will get some cash. People still have and use more traditional means to get by when they can't get ahead, like shoplifting, maxing out credit cards, and prostitution. Shoplifting is way up from just 10 years ago, American household debt is at record highs, and Onlyfans is pulling in more revenue and more desperate people every year.
This goes back to my original point, that legalizing gambling happens after economic downturns. There are so many downtrodden in those situations, and monetizing them becomes irresistable to the state.
It's wild how using the drug I make is freedom and using the drug someone else makes is slavery
I’ve been the stodgy conservative of my friend group saying “uh, maybe there was a good reason for banning this stuff?”
Pretty funny, since I actually was a committed libertarian for a while.
It also takes a blind spot re the forces that will influence events based on betting. I don't care about point-shaving in college basketball (some great stories there, see the Bad Sports episode [https://www.imdb.com/title/tt15402912/]. But other real-world outcomes are too important.
Ban alcohol advertising too. I love alcohol myself. People who want it can find it without being told.
Heinlein's The Moon is a Harsh Mistress implicitly predicted this (albeit for Luna, which was obviously modeled on the U.S.).
(Heinlein was right about so many things ....)
Not really true in the US. (I take what you are saying to mean there weren't any/many pharmaceutical commercials a decade ago)
Here's one from the 2000s that ended up maming about 10,000 people. [1]
Both audiences are super speculative.
The counter-parties in insurance are also sophisticated businesses who are highly motivated and capable of tracking down a significant portion of fraud.
The counter-party in prediction markets is other gamblers who usually have no ability to investigate fraud whatsoever. The prediction markets have some motivation to prevent fraud to protect their reputations but they don't directly lose any money from fraud, so they aren't going to do it nearly as effectively as an insurance company.
So much outrage nowadays is driven by a belief that people are entitled to profit off of every possible thing in life, how dreadful.
> Then there's the potential for insider trading, something that has dogged the prediction market industry, …
From a 2025 article [1]
> Coplan said, “Nobody is under the impression that nobody knows the answer, right? Like, of course, there’s people who are working on it that know when it’s going to come. And I think what’s cool about Polymarket is that it creates this financial incentive for people to go and divulge the information to the market and the market to change, and all of a sudden it’s trading at 95 cents.”
I didn’t know you could be described as being dogged by an issue that you actively courted and espoused. Additionally I remembered that quote but it took effort to find as it appears Kalshi and Polymarket decided the heat on those views was a little too much and have done a PR wave since January of this year to claim that they totally don’t support insider trading despite that being a core of their business concept.
I guess we’ve always been at war with East Asia again, I’ll update my firmware to be a good little drone if even media organizations like npr and apnews are just going to be this blatant with reframing history
[1] https://casinobeats.com/2025/11/20/polymarket-founder-shayne...
The thing that gets me is that the rationalists who were such outspoken proponents of prediction markets (look up "futarchy" and the many positive articles about it) failed to predict the astonishing amounts of corruption that have come along for the ride with them.
For all we know, they're participating in the corruption, which is why they were outspoken proponents.
The negative second-order effects I expected were more about people concealing information and analysis that they otherwise would have shared, replacing complex but informative discussions with a black-box oracle. Boy was I wrong.
I agree this level of public gambling is crazy. Though I’m dismayed with the criticism of mainstream media not taking a stronger stance, which I take is your criticism. Isn’t that a page from the likes of Fox News? Bringing punditry into news? Moral outrage regarding what otherwise appears to be a legal business (online betting)? Even the link you provide used the word “hints” to describe insider trading: “Polymarket Founder Shayne Coplan Hints That Insider Trading is Cool & Sportsbooks are a Scam”
I get that you’re angry, but I don’t understand why NPR is the villain.
I think I'm reading a moral stance in your comments. Like Commandments. "Thou shall not bear false witness". Maybe a radical stance in the context of news? I conclude you're demanding "mainstream media" (NPR) adopt a radical type of reporting and, yes, outrage by the use of your term "sanewashing". This is where you lose me.
NPR is a news machine designed for neutrality. If there's a failure, I would say it's *Naivete*. A presumption of regularity and the rule of law will prevail. And if the reporter was also naive, then it's in the face of <evidence>. What's the purpose of taking one article and painting all news media as corrupt?
I'm ready to grant that your conclusion [1] _"CEOs have publicly stated [insider trading] was their goal"_ is possible for some CEO. And unless you're an insider or receiving private information (which you've not claimed here), then your ground knowledge comes from reporting.
The problem with reporting that's not making an effort at neutrality as NPR does, is relying on sources whose positions are blatantly one-sided or whose information is so complex [2] only a few can determine its veracity from one article to the next. Mainstream News about complex issues fundamentally lags real-time, because it comes from the people who report it and from the people willing to go on record, and some editorial process of evaluation. The moral crisis of mainstream media has always been ownership (gatekeeping), but NPR is "funded by people like you".
If you're not taking a radical stance (and I call out "Yet another article...", as radical), then something else is driving this vehemence and absolute certainty that all CEOs are crooks and so are all the mainstream news agencies (NPR) reporting about them. I'm sorry if you've been personally hurt (or threatened, as I feel about the AI bubble; that's another story), but I don't feel informed from your comments, or inspired to _take up arms_ following your reasoning.
I think, dammit. We're between a rock and the hard place, and I'm going to be late to act. But I'm not going to throw NPR on the pyre. I will defend conscientious reporting where ever I find it.
[1]: I say "conclusion" because it must be a conclusion of reasoning to take the _may_ in the article you offered and insist it means _must_. [2]: using the novel definition of 'complex' vs. 'complicated' where complex differentiates systems with social dynamics separate from systems with organization charts.
> NPR is a news machine designed for neutrality.
Using the word "dogged" to describe a problem for companies that is a direct result of their business model, which the CEO's have admitted is their business model, and talk about how its a positive, is not neutral and where you lose me.
> 'm ready to grant that your conclusion [1] _"CEOs have publicly stated [insider trading] was their goal"_ is possible for some CEO. And unless you're an insider or receiving private information (which you've not claimed here), then your ground knowledge comes from reporting.
I linked an article with Polymarket(kalshi's competitor) and his statements on this. Do you think those comments didnt imply they felt insider trading was the goal?
> The problem with reporting that's not making an effort at neutrality as NPR does.
Wasn't neutral. The term "dogged" has non neutral connotations, and the term didnt come from someone else they were quoting.
> If you're not taking a radical stance (and I call out "Yet another article...", as radical)
I did not expect you to look through my post history, so I would not judge you negatively for thinking this was radical if it came out of the blue, but it was in reference to a comment thread I was in previously with several other examples of sanewashing coming from apnews where I had several examples[1]. Including at least one where they explicitly changed the reported quote from "fourth" to "third" because the one using "fourth" invoked multiple issues.
> I think, dammit. We're between a rock and the hard place, and I'm going to be late to act. But I'm not going to throw NPR on the pyre. I will defend conscientious reporting where ever I find it.
NPR, reuters, and apnews used to be news organizations I looked to for unbiased news beyond the infotainment organizations like Fox News(stated in court they werent news), and CNN and CBS after they got bought up by conservative billionaires and then ran by Bari Weiss. However, ever since the past 2 years of this admin attacking news organization for reporting on events in a way that offends the king, they appear to have lost their balls and are reporting on things in a way that is subjective or not reflective of reality.
I see where this is going. It’s the flip side of the Trump coin as expressed to me by my neighbor who I only just met: “President Trump is the only president in my lifetime who has any _balls_!” (he was yelling this at me at this point).
I think your vision of news is without praxis.
Peace.
Kalshi and Polymarket having to do a wave of publicity to try to take off the heat over insider trading shows that the issue of insider trading is in fact dogging the industry.
The NPR article's level of discussion of insider trading is entirely appropriate for an article that is not about insider trading.
If my friend said they were planning on breaking and entering into homes to steal things for their income, and then complained that they were dogged by accusations of being a thief, I would call them out for being full of shit because they were getting called out for exactly what they planned on doing.
If your argument is that NPR was correct in their description as being dogged by claims of insider trading, then I believe you and I have a difference of opinion on the connotations of the term "dogged" when it comes to describing accusations levied against you for behavior you 100% planned on engaging in.