psoy

This is called "rationalization", and to be honest, it looks worse than you may realize.

The inference-based methods in AI qre more likely to he of the "probabilistic graphical models" variety (there are already marriages of Bayesian and Deep Learning techniques), and less likely to be of the "first order predicate calculus" variety. We humans don't have a particularly strong logical inference engine either - unless properly trained, people make the silliest logical mistakes and arrive at wrong conclusions all the time.

That's not an example of genius by any stretch of imagination, sorry.

Borges used to deliberately make up medieval sources and reference non-existent works of literature. It's in his genre, see [1].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tl%C3%B6n,_Uqbar,_Orbis_Tertiu...

Sensitivity and recall are two names for the same thing, Mr Stats 101 :)

Also, please explain the problem with using ROC here. The probabilistic interpretation of ROC's AUC is the probability of correctly ranking a random mixed pair (i.e. ranking the positive example higher than a negative one). How is that metric affected by the 80/20 split of the test data? Genuinely curios here...

Ever heard of the halting problem?

"Less bad" and "equally bad" are incompatible statements, you're claiming both are true

Same with Armenian: I can read and understand 5th century texts simply as an educated native speaker. It probably has to do with how much the culture relies on its written texts (because there are spoken dialects of Armenian that I dom't understand at all, while having no trouble with the written dialect from 1500 years ago)

What kind of company do you work for?

> 1. Steve Jobs was a couple of standard deviations better at this than almost anyone

This is a statistical oxymoron.

It matters very much in computational / quant finance

I don't know, wouldn't be so sure without actual supporting data.

Anecdotally I know many talented people who got "broken" at high school level (due to any number of issues, from poverty to physical and emotional trauma). Having connections, mentors, initial capital, educated family, it all helps a lot.

This is not US-specific either, I made it to the US from a war-torn country across the globe with no money or connections, but I am extremely stubborn. There were definitely people who didn't make it this far who arguably had the pure IQ advantage.

Sounds like Appeal to Authority to me: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority

FWIW I am also someone who knows what he's talking about, as I am a seasoned professional in the same line of work.

This guy's accomplishments don't make the Chebyshev inequality any less true (nor all the other theorems involving variance), so I don't see how he can claim something like this and be taken seriously by people in the field.

This is silly in my view, and bordering on pseudoscience-level writing. It's not a random historical accident that we use these quantities.

Variance / stdev appear all over probability and statistics. For example, in this famous Stats 101 theorem: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chebyshev%27s_inequality

Thanks for the link. I've been looking through these subreddits too, there's some neat stuff there:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Lightbulb/top/?sort=top&t=year

https://www.reddit.com/r/SomebodyMakeThis/top/?sort=top&t=ye...

https://www.reddit.com/r/AppIdeas/top/?sort=top&t=year

Armenia was an empire at some point, just not at the time of Ani. The title could be referring to Armenia in general, since it's most definitely an empire the world forgot about :)

Yup, Bagratunis were among the longest reigning dynasties in the region (in all of Europe & Middle East, AFAIK). The last name still pops up even today, in various dialectal forms. Like this Lebanese-Armenian politician: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karim_Pakradouni

Oh, and this dude: https://www.linkedin.com/in/prince-ioane-bagrationi-mukhrane...