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pjdemers

689 karma · joined December 21, 2015

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pjdemers··on Hospitals are reporting new mothers for neglect from poppyseed false positives
They don't watch Mythbusters? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIN7cq8Mc-4 Or Seinfield? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYzuQr7YVYg
pjdemers··on Cheating is All You Need
Why ask chatgpt to write the code when I can just ask it to do the task? Instead of "write code to do X", just ask it "do X".
pjdemers··on This Time It's Different
The price of things that AI can do well is quickly going to fall to the cost of the electricity to run the model. The price of things that AI can do, but can't do well, will fall some, but not nearly as much. The price of things that AI can't do at all will go up, because there will be fewer people working in knowledge jobs, and therefore they will be able to command higher wages.
pjdemers··on How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever
I agree that this additional information is necessary to understand the problem. I've seen that show maybe twice in my lifetime, both times when I was a little kid. I did not know that Monty never opens the door with the prize behind it. Not one time in the history of the show did he ever open the prize door. Knowing that is additional information, and can be used to figure out the problem. But you need to watch the show more than twice to know that.
pjdemers··on Atherton rips up some multifamily housing plans
The lot the Curry's and other oppose rezoning, 23 Oakwood Blvd, is not an appropriate place for high density housing. Despite the Atherton address, all cars to and from the property will enter and exit on Redwood City residential streets. The streets in that neighborhood of RWC are substandard, they were put there in the 1930's and have not changed since. Even the Atherton town council thinks it is the worst lot in the town for development, but the owner is insisting on the highest density possible.
pjdemers··on Builder's Remedy goes into effect in many California cities tomorrow
On my street, a parcel with one home was just rezoned for 24 homes - with zero on site parking. 24 homes without parking will add ~ 50 cars to on street parking. There is room for maybe 30 cars on the local streets without having to cross a 6 lane highway. Interesting to see how this will play out.
pjdemers··on Area 120, Google’s in-house incubator, severely impacted by Alphabet mass layoff
>> He’ll be remembered as the worst tech CEO of a major company

He is up against stiff competition for this award. Even getting nominated is difficult.

pjdemers··on The MTA’s armored money train that ran from 1951 to 2006 in NYC
The Boston MBTA had the same thing. I saw their armored train in the early 80's. The guards carried shotguns, just like in the old west.
pjdemers··on Carta lays off 10% of the workforce
If you are still on the payroll, the company is committed to paying you, which means they don't get to recognize (accounting-wise) the cost savings of letting you go. They could convert you to a temporary FTE, but that doesn't help your visa. Severance and other costs of letting people go are recognized as soon as the employee walks out the door.
pjdemers··on Ask HN: Lead developer but I just don't enjoy management
There are many, many, many tech companies who have way way way way too many people who want to be managers but not any who want to stay technical. Find one of them.
pjdemers··on Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm
Tesla, and even more Uber, were priced as if self driving cars are almost here. The idea that services like Uber without the drivers would make car ownership obsolete drove those valuations. Now that self driving cars are many decades away, instead of less than one decade away, is bring stock prices down. I always questions how fast we would see self driving cars, not because of the technology, but because of consumer demand. There was a survey a few years ago of how much more people would be willing to pay for cars that could drive themself, and the median answer was $0. This is because quite a few people gave a negative number, that is, they would pay extra for a car that could not drive itself.
pjdemers··on Americans duped into losing $10B by illegal Indian call centres in 2022: report
Wasn't there a guy who was running an IRS scam who was caught, tried and convicted and will spend the rest of his life in a US supermax prison? And his children, who lived in the US, were stripped of their citizenship and deported. The universities where his children attended were threatened with receiving stolen property and forced to pay all tuition and fees back to the IRS. And of course their degrees were revoked.
pjdemers··on Grabby Aliens: A Resolution to the Fermi Paradox
I agree with this. Given the vast time necessary to move (or even communicate) between stars, there is no social, political or economic reason to travel more than a few light years from your home planet. That's leaves science, religion and adventure as the only reasons to go really far out int space, and the cost of interstellar travel limits how many other planets can be visited for those reasons, even over tens of thousands of years.
pjdemers··on Brexit: Rejoining EU takes record 14-point lead in latest poll
The EU may let them back in, but not with all the special deals they had before. First on the list is they would need to drop Pounds for Euros.
pjdemers··on My dad's resume and skills from 1980
As recently as the early 90's, making a lifetime career out of software development was considered impossible. When I was starting out in the late 80's all the developers were taking classes or had a side business, with the goal getting out of "programming" before it was too late. Even those who wanted to stay in the industry took every opportunity to talk directly with clients so they could get into sales or marketing.
pjdemers··on Many scientists see fusion as the future of energy
Fusion is the energy source of the future, and it always will be.
pjdemers··on Your job was probably outsourced for the reason you suspected
You need a local partner you trust. Your partner is going to get a cut, and a big one, but otherwise you won't get good people.
pjdemers··on Working in the software industry, circa 1989
>> we would ship US Sprint a blank tape with our usual letter listing the changes in the release. And so we did.

I worked for a company in the same era that did the exact same thing for a late release.

pjdemers··on Since '67, households making $150K+ (inflation adjusted) grew from 1.8 to 23.8M
Back in the 60's, many full time jobs came with a defined benefit pension. Health care was not nearly as expensive, even without insurance. Last, houses were cheap, college was almost free, and there were many more good public schools, so living in the very best school districts wasn't as important. In other words, many of the things that today's households making > $150k spend money on were vastly cheaper.
pjdemers··on No one expects young men to do anything and they are responding by doing nothing
>> others require him to get along with unpleasant customers and coworkers, and to maintain a submissive attitude toward the boss.”

These are requirements of high paying jobs, too.

pjdemers··on The Russians Fleeing Putin's Wartime Crackdown
>> I never understood what Putin's end game was here with this war

His endgame is to prevent free democratic elections in Ukraine. He sees Ukraine as the country most similar to Russia. He wants to prevent elections in Ukraine, because what works in Ukraine will work in Russia. And the very last thing he wants is free elections in Russia.

pjdemers··on Amazon shuts small Seattle office after spate of crimes in area
Because the US locks people up for decades for drug offense that may not even be felonies in other countries.
pjdemers··on Red Hat is discontinuing sales and services in Russia and Belarus
The difference here is nuclear weapons. We aren't able to use the normal military options against a country threatening nuclear first use. The normal military options are no-fly zones, embedded SOF and advisors, help with logistics and supply chains, etc.
pjdemers··on How Does This End?
I don't think that the scenario where Putin detonates a nuclear weapon as a demonstration, or within the border of Ukraine would cause the US/UK/France to detonate one of their nuclear weapons to prove they are serious. Only an attack on a Nato country, with casualties, would bring a nuclear response.
pjdemers··on Jerome Powell says the Fed is prepared to raise rates to tame inflation
And this time we mean it. Honest, we really will raise rates this time, just watch us. Right after we stop printing money.
pjdemers··on Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed money into real estate
Twenty years from now, when 10,000 baby boomers are dying every day, housing prices will be in free fall, with no end in sight. That's too late for most of us, but today's small children will have no problem buying a house as adults, if they even want one.
pjdemers··on Zillow, Prophet, time series, and prices
Very likely this was not a real job post, but rather the statutory post required for a visa application (H1-B, etc). Zillow HR looked at the current employee's background for a set of skills that is rarely found in one person, to keep the number of qualified outside applicants at zero. "Must be a a senior person with recent hands on experience in this novice tool". What they didn't say is, their exist employee used Prophet in a class unrelated to work.
pjdemers··on Debunking our narratives of the late 70s and early 80s
Carter was a classic centrist. Both sides hated him. And by today's standards, Reagan was only slightly right of center. Reagan is remembered more fondly than Carter because of attitude. Carter told American: if we all sacrifice and work really hard, things will be pretty good again. Reagan told us: Everything going to be great because we deserve to be great. And yes, cheap oil destroyed the USSR, not the US military build up. The military build up pushed them over the edge, but they were already failing. US military leaders knew this at the time, that's why the build up happened when it did.
pjdemers··on Man left shocked as his house is 'stolen'
In the US, there is title insurance. If the seller didn't have the legal right to sell the house, the house reverts to the legal owner, and the buyer is paid back by the insurance. It's not possible to get a mortgage without title insurance, and a cash buyer would be nuts to not demand it from the seller. In some states (example, California) it can get more complicated, though, because the right to sell a house isn't the same thing as the right to live in it. They buyer may own the house, but not have the right to force the current occupants to leave. That's why it's important to state in the contract that the house must be completely empty before the seller gets paid, and every month that it is not completely empty, a few thousand dollars is subtracted from the purchase price.
pjdemers··on A catalog of wealth-creation mechanisms (2009)
I would add to 9, "Move and store information". That's what most of us here in HN do.
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