Since '67, households making $150K+ (inflation adjusted) grew from 1.8 to 23.8M
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True, but its capabilities have grown since then, too. Things like monoclonal antibodies can now cure very serious conditions, but they are very expensive to produce.
In the 1960s, cancer was an almost certain death sentence, nowadays, it is often manageable - but that increase in survival comes with a price tag.
Since 1970, the poverty rate among seniors has dropped from almost 25% to just above 10%: https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R45791.pdf. Although more people had pension plans (though never a majority), they were not portable, and most workers never stayed at a job long enough to earn their pension. Pension benefits were also low compared to what they are now. See: https://retirementlc.com/golden-age-pensions-another-fairy-t...
Healthcare was cheaper in 1970, but because doctors could not do much for you if you got heart disease or cancer or other chronic illnesses. In 1970, 40% of heart attack patients who were hospitalized died. Today, it is well under 10%. Living longer doesn’t happen automatically, it costs money. Not just to develop heart medication or cardiac stents, but for the decades of additional care that is required when a heart attack patient survives to old age instead of dying at age 55. It’s not just old people either. The infant mortality rate has dropped from 26 per 1,000 in 1960 to under 6 per 1,000 in 2020. That wasn’t from cheap interventions like vaccination, which happened a generation before that. It was from expensive interventions like giving birth in hospitals, extensive pre-natal care, surgical interventions for sick infants, etc.
The costs per square foot of new houses has stayed pretty much the same from 1970 to 2015: https://fee.org/articles/new-homes-today-have-twice-the-squa.... What people overlook is that (1) as the population grows, the "frontier" of where the typical new house is being sold moves; and (2) people are using their growing income to buy much bigger houses. For example, Silicon Valley was an underpopulated, undesirable suburban and rural area in the 1960s—that’s why they built semiconductor facilities there!
It’s important to account for both price increases (paying more for the same thing) and consumption increases (paying more to get more). A good example of both of those things happening is college. The cost of college has undoubtedly gone up faster than inflation. But it’s also a very different product than it was in 1970, with fancy housing and recreational facilities and tons of handholding from support staff.
By contrast, housing is a good example of something where it’s been mainly consumption increases. People are taking all their extra income and using it to buy bigger houses in more desirable areas.
So in other words, "inflation adjusted" wasn't done right here?
https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/rent-growth-since-196...
That's a type of inflation. The share of cost burdened renters has increased by 1.3% per year relentlessly for 55 years.
don't piss on my boot and tell me it's raining, almost every observable metric shows living standards have dropped significantly in the US over the past few decades
We have a lot more expenses today in large part because standard of living has increased. Certain components, like home affordability and medical, have become much worse than they were. Many other components have improved.
That's a _very_ subjective viewpoint.
http://pricedingold.com/us-gdp/
As for medical, the US has a problem, especially compared to other countries.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-expectancy-vs-health...
I'm actually not sure if there are any metrics that show us living standards dropping, much less "significantly" from the late 20th century to 2020.
I guess that means real wages have increased almost 3x since 1980, with hours down since people have to work less to survive due to increased productivity.
Actually US real wages have been basically flat for half a century.
GDP per capita increasing is bad for the people working and creating wealth, as the workers creating the wealth see none of the increase in wages, and it gives the heirs parasitically expropriating surplus labor time from workers more power.
What are some examples of the specific metrics you're referring to?
I've got some really bad news for you, friend. The free trade era is already over and demographic collapse is coming for almost everyone.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/20/free-trade-dead-managed...
Although maybe I misread the original data he links to. If so, please let me know.
What's the same chart look like for a random state in the Midwest?
also, how significant is income actually? how about total wealth? whats the debt level at each of these gradations etc?
> "On this page is the United States average household income by year and median household income by year between 1968 and 2021. You'll also find the top 1% household income by year between 1996 and 2021, plus the top 5% and 10% for the full range. It's the newest data to this point in 2022."
https://dqydj.com/household-income-by-year/
Some takeaways (inflation-adjusted)
(1) the median (half above/ half below) is mostly flat over the whole period, with a slight increase about 55K - 65K; anyone near or below this is almost surely a renter with little if any savings working paycheck-to-paycheck if that, and no retirement other than Social Security and maybe a small pension.
(2) the top 5% has gone from 150K to 275K, this is probably mostly the white-collar professional sector who own their own homes (the top 10% mirrors this only from 125K to 200K). This probably encompasses well-sized 401K retirement accounts.
(3) the top 1% bounces around 500K, although that data is only tracked since the mid 1990s, and seems to track things like 2001 dot com bust, 2008 subprime crash, indicating this is the sector closely tied to Wall Street revenue. (This sector tends to have net assets near 10M, multiple homes, portfolios, etc.)
The general trend of increasing wealth inequality is pretty clear, see also:
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/110215/brief...
Primitive society: priest-scribes working for the state pore over the movement of the stars, after much study pronounce that the gods are pleased, and all will be well after we sacrifice 100 goats. By the way, there is no better way to organize society, because the king is descended from the sun god
Modern society: priest-scribes working for the state pore over econometric numbers, after much study pronounce that the economy is strong, and all will be well after we print 4 trillion dollars for economic stimulus and then raise interest rates to tame inflation. By the way, there is no better way to organize society, because the government is democratically elected
I agree that the current way of dealing with monetary policy feels closer to rain dancing than actual science but people are taking it seriously because they're seeing it in their grocery and fuel bills every day.
The authors follow-up tweet about African-American earnings is also interesting, similar results.
The drop in poverty is really good, and something our negativity biased news organizations are happy to skip. There have been some great human improvements over the past 50 years.
But on another point, I recall that the entry of women into the workforce was almost complete by the 70’s so moving from one to two earner household isn’t likely the main driver.
People on HN are very good and detecting when someone is trying to blow sunshine up their ass.
Take, for example, the second part of this tweet:
>Very poor households (< $25K) shrunk from 24.7% to 18.1% (number rose slightly)
That is an abject failure of an economy if I even saw one. 18.1% of households in the most embarrassingly rich country in the history of the planet are living in abject poverty? Even with what you can do with poverty wages nowadays, that fucking sucks.
This rate should be <1%.
I'm not saying that they're living comfy lives, but when you throw around terms like "abject povery" you're really discrediting people who are actually living in abject poverty.
What are your plans to get the rate below 1%? What would you have done differently that wouldn't have wrecked the economy?
The fact is, this country could fund universal childcare, universal healthcare and universal education from K-16 and not 'wreck the economy.' All it would take is doing what every other industrialized first-world country has done... and done better, with less resources.
And don't worry, the people who you think are actually living in abject poverty aren't reading on HN on a Monday afternoon, so my discredit of their situation will go largely ignored.
I also think your perception of social aid in some other countries is wildly distorted. These benefits often come with the side effects of significantly higher taxes and subpar offerings. There's a reason why the US harbors the majority of the worlds prestigious universities and has the best patient outcomes of any medical system in the world.
Of course I agree that things could be improved, they always could. But it's not as trivial as you'd like it to be.
You’d be wrong then. Countries with universal healthcare and other social programs still have the very poor.
~10% of households experience food insecurity in the US. So assume that's a direct overlap, that would be most of the 18%
The U.S. was by far the leading global agricultural exporter in 2020 with exports valued at $147.9 billion. [0]
And it's not like it's hard to get the food from where it's grown to where it's needed. The US has a navigable waterway system that is smack dab in the middle of both where the food is grown and where it is eaten by the most people. That's not a coincidence.[1]
I'm not playing semantic games about whether the households experiencing food insecurity are 'working poor' 'abject poor' or 'totally fucked poor'. It doesn't matter what you call it, it's a problem that we can solve in this country.
[0]https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/100615/4-cou...
[1]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/21/Inland_w...
https://agrilifetoday.tamu.edu/2021/08/05/food-availability-...
Your second point is way off. Food moves crazy distances. The last mile is critically important. The direct path from farm to table is pretty much irrelevant and you couldn't possibly use the waterways to solve this problem effectively in its entirety. People don't want to eat a ton of raw corn and soy.
Hunger is a problem, but it's a hard problem. Cost and nutrition and logistics do a weird dance. Many (most?) people suffering from food insecurity are also obese.
While even in 1 in 100,000 is sad, the idea 10% of America is even close to starving is a fictional reality designed to deceive.
Hmmm
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4584410/
> Based on self-reported data from 12 states, one in three food insecure adults are also obese. Furthermore, food insecurity and obesity were found be associated in the general population and many population subgroups, especially women. These findings corroborate the relationship between food insecurity and obesity found in previous research. Although the association between obesity and food insecurity found in this study was cross-sectional, contributing factors to obesity and food insecurity suggest a need to address the importance of increasing access to affordable healthy foods for all adults.
Study uses questions like: “How often in the past 12 months would you say you were worried or stressed about having enough money to buy nutritious meals?”
By design, this study causes obese people who eat up their food supplies to be more likely to be captured by the study than their less consumptive counterparts, even with equal amount of available food.
I would expect someone who shovels enough food in their mouth to be obese to be the kind of person to spend more than needed for meals (or to end the meal with less spare reserve food), causing them to stress about their overspending. It's not much surprise an obese person shoveling down food is more worried about overspending than the skinny person not shoveling down their hatch until they are the size of Oklahoma. Eating 4000 calories of even the cheapest food like rice and beans costs more than eating 2000 calories worth rice and beans; of course the blimp-sized person eating the 4000 calories of rice and beans is going to stress more about the cost than the person eating 2000 calories of rice and beans.
Put another way, it makes sense to me a food insecure person might say "I will buy 4000 calories worth of rice and beans instead of 2000 calories worth of rice and beans because I am food insecure, then I will save the difference in case food is inaccessible later." An obese person will then eat all 4000 calories and stress about being out of money, and become "food insecure" via this study by answering they're worried. Whereas the skinny person is not gonna stress as much, because they still have 2000 calories worth of rice and beans after their meal is done, and thus be less likely to be classified "food insecure" by the question of this study. That is, the study is designed to capture the obese person as being more food insecure even when they have same food availability of the less obese person.
How does that work?
Food insecurity doesn't mean you're constantly underfed. It just means you can't generally know where your next meal is going to come from. Hunger sucks. It's not tough to see how that could cause you to eat more.
They aren't buying TV dinners at $5 per pop.
What do you mean they are forced to eat crappy food? It's usually more expensive than the healthier options.
Veggies are dirt cheap. Sure, pre-sliced baby carrots in star shapes aren't cheap, but the poor shouldn't buy those.
You should tell the 80% of the world population that lives off beans and rice as staple foods. They tend to have a lot less obesity and live longer than Americans. And we're comparing it to unhealthy food - how on earth is rice and beans "not particularly healthy" compared to potato chips and fast food?
Amazing how the poor of America eat worse than the really poor in the rest of the world. And amazingly they have the time, equipment (a pot!) and storage (fridge) to make it work.
Sounds more like a lack of life skills and poor choices more than anything.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5708033/ https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/healthy-vs-...
The correlation between poverty levels and obesity are also well studied and are not uniquely american. Although the trends don't hold for developing countries where the poor are often on their feet all day.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25292135/
> Amazing how the poor of America eat worse than the really poor in the rest of the world. And amazingly they have the time, equipment (a pot!) and storage (fridge) to make it work.
It is rent, wealth inequality, spread out urban planning leading to single dollar trees being the only available grocer, commute times, social support structures, corn subsidies, and a myriad of other factors that make this a very complicated issue.
But sure, let's just blame the poor for being stupid. I'm sure you'd be just fine making $7.25 an hour.
Is it possible the kind of self-discipline needed to prevent yourself from over-eating is more heartily rewarded economically in the US than in some of the particularly impoverished nations where only a tiny fraction escape poverty? I don't know, but it's worth noting the causative direction could influence going from obesity to poverty, poverty to obesity, neither, or even merely correlative dependent variables caused by some other 3rd stimulus.
As another reply here said, By all means, explain how you'd make poverty stand at 1%. Also explain what system you'd have that's so much better if you like.
Basic point. It's easy but disingenuous to compare the real world's changes with those of our limitless notions of the ideal. The valid thing is to compare something now to how it was previously for genuine perspective.
That’s fantastic news.
[0] https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/06/14/tech-employment-bay-a...