HNHacker News
TopNewBestAskShowJobs

orwin

4,775 karma · joined August 17, 2017

submissionscomments
orwin··on U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal
Because it is? Migrant workers get sent away when sick or hurt, they don't benefit from healthcare.

They don't get treatment, and have to come back to their country. It's the same in the UAE, except there even if you're a westerner, if you work a manual job you will get sent to your country if you get seriously hurt (ask any sailor).

orwin··on Zohran Mamdani's NYC Tech Team Is What DOGE Should Have Been
I don't know how it works in your country, but in mine, each time a public monopoly is given to the market, corruption creeps in, costs increases, and suddenly you have to pay twice as much for your water and trash than the neighbouring municipality.

Ten years later some guy get arrested, other have to pay a small fine, a tenth of made profits, new red tape gets added to avoid the exact same situation. Stuff becomes so complex than muni employees avoid touching anything they don't understand (which is every contracts), corruption creeps in, and a new 10 year circle starts again.

The only way to do something about it is to really spend time understanding each item on your service list, take control of every contract on public monopoly where you can't understand everything, and cut deals with the company owners "we won't talk about your corruption, you accept our break of the contract without penalties" (one of my uncle used to do that, France's BPI took over more than 200 private contract in 4 years. He has stories, and threatening letters :D)

orwin··on As a Windows user, it's a surreal way to install a program
Counterpoint: explain to me how to make two different versions of an app cohabit. I found out about homebrew, so it isn't as much as an issue as it used to be, but in the 2000s, it was impossible to maintain two versions of RoR on mac. Granted, window was not much better (two versions of crypt on ISS took me way too long to install correctly). But for anyone used to sane OS, it was a detriment until homebrew became ubiquitous.
orwin··on Tax cuts for the wealthy only benefit the rich (2023)
You can't do that, because the Walton family and others are really, really good at avoiding getting taxed. Even small business owners like my uncles do whatever they can to avoid any sort of taxes. I never paid VAT on sport equipments or DIY equipment, which are what they sold, but we also managed for my whole school life to avoid paying VAT on school supplies, and it's probably the same for my 22 cousins. Tax avoidance is a really good hobby for those people.
orwin··on U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal
Singapore numbers ignore their underclass, which is significant. But you're right, if you're a westerner, Singapore's great.
orwin··on U.S. used 'virtually all' of its long-range precision missiles during Iran war
Which military objective did the US accomplish in their "win"? Did they won on the battlefield? Do you consider the Korea war a win for the US military too? And if not, what is the difference with the vietnam war?

I'm pretty sure we have different definition of what a win is, but i would like to understand your point of view, genuinely.

orwin··on Framework discloses data breach via Metabase 0-day
I created an account more than two years ago, and never connected to it since. EU rgpd is very clear about data retention delays. I won't report it, but to be clear I am very cross with Framework, when even Chinese companies respect my privacy more.
orwin··on Obviously, DOGE Did Not Save Money
Wasn't GAO the leading us org in that big simplification/trim of the Clinton admin? I know for budget hawks of my country (my uncles and whoever informed them for full transparency) it was the only good thing Clinton did and we should have done the same (the US budget was balanced for the first time since Reagan or something, without reducing social aid).

I think that's the best way to find out btw. Did the US budget increase in the last two years. If yes, Doge failed.

orwin··on Waymo in Dallas
Gp said that the way heat deaths were reported in Europe (statistical analysis: additional mortality during heatwaves) and in the US (individual analysis: autopsy) makes the two incomparable.

I'm just making a note about life expectancy in the US and in Europe (which are both calculated the same way). I admit I was in teaching mode, and should have been explicit instead. If heat deaths had an oversized effect on Europeans, you should be able to see it in the graphs in summer 2023 and 2025, and not in the US (to a certain degree: US have to catch up like 5 years, so it's not an apple to apple comparison, but close enough)

orwin··on U.S. used 'virtually all' of its long-range precision missiles during Iran war
It wasn't a win for the US military. They spent 20 years in south Vietnam, trying to keep it independent, and ultimately failed. Their stated goal was south Vietnam independence and stopping the spread of communism. Both were failed goals.

War is a continuation of politics, and here, the US lost politically (in Laos first) even if they didn't loose strategically. But let's be honest, multiple times they got their asses kicked on the field too (Unless you think logistics don't matter for an army).

orwin··on Civilians under siege by Mexican cartel fight back with AK-47s, grenades
No, not really, it's two orders of magnitude smaller overall. Drugs, gold (from illegal mines in the Amazon) and weapons (from US lost military stock/police seizure mostly) drive cartels economy (in that order last time I checked, pre-covid).

Human trafficking and racketeering are for smaller, more local gangs. Most illegal immigrants cross the border legally and overstay, and racketeering have a scale issue. It might have changed recently but I don't see how.

orwin··on Waymo in Dallas
https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/u-s-lif...

Think about it.

orwin··on U.S. used 'virtually all' of its long-range precision missiles during Iran war
Bac Ho took back the country he liberated from the french, renamed the capital city, instituted a communist regime that held its own against china.
orwin··on U.S. used 'virtually all' of its long-range precision missiles during Iran war
US health insurance margins are thinner than European private insurance. Their administrative cost however are 9-10%, when in Europe (or really, France and Germany, I haven't looked elsewhere) they are 5-8%. The difference is probably in negotiating costs and audits. But that means that in total, for every 100 dollar paid, US insuree pay 4-10 dollar in efficiency+dividend that a European doesn't.
orwin··on The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling
Yes. Oil peak production in North Africa is early 2010, peak gas in the north sea is 2004, peak oil 2008. The US recovery started as they started to exploit non-conventional gas, then oil, and Canada who exploited non-conventional felt it even less. Finance (and investing in developing new energy sources) of course had an impact , but energy availability is what drive production growth.
orwin··on The AI Productivity Gap
The two last hire we got a year ago still don't have any ownership of anything. Even the project they coded 'themselve' where we involved them in the design and let them cook almost on their own, we are the one chasing bugs and defucking everything six months later because, probably unlike them, we actually read the PR (I'm mean, they probably did read it too, but today I'm extremely pissed, I'm at the point of calling a meeting to figure it out, it cannot continue like this). I've never took more than 4 months to at least understand most of the code, I feel like a year later their level of understanding is still the same. They are basically ai overseers at this point, but while I do more code review than ever before, I feel like they learn around the same as LLM, basically nothing.
orwin··on US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market
It works very well in rich countries, but it is expensive, especially if the volume of exchanged currency is low. This is one of the reason behind the Euro, countries realised it would be way less expensive to defend the currency if they banded together. This is also a big why ex french colonies keeps colonial money, because that currency is pegged to the Euro and that peg protect it (the only way to get out cheaply is to do a West African Union or something similar, which is why anti-colonialists are big on the subject. They are right).
orwin··on BMW Is Showing Commercials on Their Car's Dash Screens as a Treat
Chinese cars built in Europe are not taxed/sanctioned.

I think the base golf is around 30k.

(Renault, fiat and Citroen are better priced than German cars if you don't mind staying in the low-end. You still have park assist, Google/Apple carplay and they are still good on the road, but they feel less luxurious.)

orwin··on The AI trade now runs on borrowed money, and the lenders are repricing it
I was thinking about Opus 4.5 when i talked about 10 month ago, but maybe i'm confusing the date, it might have been 9 month.

Opus 4.5 vs Fable 5? i think the output difference will be negligible, and the opportunity cost of paying an order of magnitude more will actually benefit my business.

orwin··on The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling
What caused the second recession in Europe was a decrease in energy supply. Country that depended the most on the North sea or North Africa oil and gas exports suffered the most.

We still live under the constraints of our world, and energy availablity is a big one.

orwin··on The AI trade now runs on borrowed money, and the lenders are repricing it
But who needs SOTA models, really? It was necessary 10 months ago, but now?
orwin··on 1,741 "informed" consents with one click? GDPR complaint filed
> - deny is the default: one button to deny everything but one accept button for every partner

Yes, that's in the law. I you do not click on consent, the default is deny everything, and a button to refuse everything should be easy to access.

> - making payments for non-tracking illegal

In the law too.

> - remove or rephrase "legitimate interest" ruling, because providers use that as an excuse to enable everything

True, this loophole was introduced by UK/US lobbyists at the time if I remember correctly. My (very small, 3 dev) company at the time worked on health data and managed to find itself in the arcanes of Brussels because anything related to PII security was good news for us.

- and probably: prohibit any other dark pattern, or at least make it extremely hard to implement

This is the courts who can judge that.

The main issue with the gdpr law is local enforcement. It is honestly well written and easy to understand, which is why you have so much legal loopholes, but EU courts are RAI rather than RAW (our fast americanisation is changing that though).

orwin··on French firefighters face 'pyrocumulonimbus' for first time
It impacted the north of Bordeaux too. from Thursday to saturday, a lot of small fields/forest in Charente/Charente maritime started to catch fire because of the embers. The smoke was also so dense it completly modified the local climate and fucked up the wind prevision (i know because i was suppose to wingfoil all afternoon saturday and we had no wind until like 18-19), also dropping the temperature 2-3C (150km away).

Good luck, and stay safe.

orwin··on ARC-AGI Leaderboard
If you go to a LLM without harness, GP original point in completely right.

LLMS by themselves are still shit at math, they still confuse weird correlation to causation every time (and sometimes in ways even a 9 year old would say "no, that's dumb"), and confuse original parameters very often.

I disagree with " "thinking" token generation being on the correct track just to 'no, wait' on an already correct conclusion", because i think that is an effect of the harness, not the LLMs.

80% off all the improvements since ChatGPT4 are in the harnesses, and the LLMs by themselves, while they improved in areas they already were good at (translation especially) did not fix any of they original issues (object permanence, calculusm correlation).

Just run old models in the playground and get them to play chess (maybe make a small custom harness if you feel like it), then replace it with a frontier model (i don't know if you still have API access without harness on US models, but if you don't try K3), you will see LLMs weaknesses were not at all fixed, even marginally. They're way better and not inducing bugs in the code, so that make them usable since Opus4.5 (anyone using them prior to that either had a greenfield project or like spending hours debugging).

orwin··on Ah, the Codeberg Drama
To whom it may concern: codeberg is explicitly _not_ for private repo and your ai game pet project. It's aim is to host FOSS tools and libraries.

To me, this is a good decision. I already got burned by an Asdf 'clone' that was in rust and allegedly lightweight. Never again I will install on my computer a rust-written tool written in a month that merge 5 pr per day. I know what to look for now, but IMHO having a platform where those kind of projects are forbidden is great. If an AI generated tool is so great and wonderful I cannot miss it, I will get it from word of mouth.

orwin··on IRGC claims it destroyed Amazon's Bahrain data center
The only reason we knew about it is that it was one of our network output 'node', but I don't think I've read anything about it in generalist medias
orwin··on I think you might be fooling yourself with AI
That's highly unlikely that this is done flawlessly. This morning I found a bug in our error handling, I asked Sol to fix it. He rewrote the way the specific component that failed called the exception. I asked it to retry and go deeper, inside the library. It solution was to ignore the part of the message that caused the issue. Which worked very well, but wasn't the root cause (it was a serialization issue. It's always a serialization issue). It couldn't go deeper, always stuck trying to catch the error rather than fixing it for real. We found the root cause, fixed it, and it was done, one line change and 15 lines of test, in one hours. Instead of four hours of nothing except spending tokens.

But truly I'm mad at the vscode harness. I used to be able to follow the 'thought' of the AI model and steer them when I saw a mistake, it's now way harder to do as multiple research tasks are done in parallel.

orwin··on China’s open-weights AI strategy is winning
Yes. Institut Pasteur discovered a lot of the molecules currently used in general medecine, created more new vaccines than any other institute and currently is at the very edge of gene therapy.

Not that is has anything to do with efficiency. If you give 100 to my public healthcare, 94 of that will be used to reimburse health expenses, if you give 100 to US private healthcare, only 86 will be used to reimburse health expenses. That has nothing to do with initial costs.

orwin··on China’s open-weights AI strategy is winning
Insurance is the perfect industry because in no other industry you can calculate efficiency this easily: if I give you 100, how much is used to reimburse other insuree. It turns out for public insurance, often more than 90, even in more corrupt countries, and for private insurance, often anywhere between 70 and 90.
orwin··on Five US tech giants' hidden debts soar to $1.65T on opaque AI funding
Originally, money is a IOU and basically a tool to trade between communities. The individualization of capital (capitalism basically) made place for private loan and artificial middlemen like i wrote in the previous comment. And yes, you can work without it, but this is the way things works in the west since the 18th century, 17th century in GB.

------------

To be clear about how banks work: they don't loan money, they create it via accounting. You go to a bank and ask for 20 money at 10% interest, they will write in their asset column "20 money" and in their liability "20 money", give you the newly created 20 money and create a "coupon" of 2 money (sorry that's the french word, i don't know how englo people call that). If needed (like a liquidity crunch), they can sell the coupon worth 2 money at 1 money, or even your loan worth 20 money 18 to another bank, but they will keep the liability in their own books. If the liability become higher than the assets, bankruptcy. Notice that the money you put in the bank isn't touched.

The money you put in bank, they invest in low risk assets like government bonds, through their investment funds. Since those are locked assets, if too many people want their money back at the same time, the bank enter a liquidity crunch, have to sell the locked assets at a discount, and put the losses on their own funds, in the "liability" column.

Wether it's caused by a credit crunch or because loans aren't being repaid, if a bank "liability" column has a higher value than its "assets" column, they enter bankruptcy. The state auctions customer-linked investment off (i think that's more complex and depends on the local laws, in my country you have a transfer provision where the customer and the bonds linked to some of his bank accounts are transfered to a new bank) where those are slowly sold at a higher value than the failing bank would have gotten, slowly reimbursing the customers. It is _very_ rare that bank customers loose any money in the long run (they do suffer opportunity cost though, their assets are locked and don't earn any interests, so in a way, they loose a little). in the 2007-2008 crisis, the issue is that banks split loans weirdly and did a lot of accounting shenaningans tying each international bank to each others.

← PreviousPage 6 of 34Next →