759 karma · joined March 24, 2020
people will go to _amazing_ lengths not to read something new or unfamiliar. That feeling of "i must be dumb" is most often the reason people avoid it, and is just the normal part of learning something new.
When someone dismisses your interpretation it serves to understand it well.
Additionally: A contractual mistake would likely not return specific performance (stock) unless special conditions were met.
For example: a company makes a stock mistake, you observe that at the time it happens, but then do nothing until you see the stock increase in value. Company could assert you _were_ due the stock but the value of that stock is determined by the time-of-breach and they return you $.
Unless you had a substantial claim to voting interest would probably be monetary reward!
NYL
Geopolitical and other risks exist here. The future isnt doom and gloom but it isnt exponentials and sunshine either.
Companies like Nvidia, up 1000% since 2023, clearly cannot rely on "oh you'd get returns in 5-15 years". They (Jensen and others) are arguing for AGI in a year (he said this at a talk at Stanford ~ 1yr ago).
Long-term, ie 5-15 years there will be many technologies that change the world. Some will come from transformative tech, others will come from other places.
Financial instruments, investors etc have timelines.
Blowing timelines can risk the future if not properly aligned, especially in correlated risk. See the internet bubble, where it was clearly important but took 15 years to recover after the 2000 boom/bust.
In general, longevity risk can include the financial instrument timelines, it can include other technical factors about the technology, and it can also be that the boom serves important people too soon with gains, real limits are imposed, and then the whole system resets until the real limits are overcome or resolved.
"we could find a nail for this hammer... or we could just hammer everything until we find the nail or make too much money hammering for a bit then sell in may and go away".
Very few things in life experience exponential growth and assembled systems don't often stay that way if they don't become sigmoidal. ie its exponential and end is nigh xor its exponential then sigmoidal xor linear.
Also a bit hilarious to believe that a single 3 month cycle at TSMC could determine a severe amount of propped valutions.
[1] https://www.theverge.com/tech/943066/tsmc-ai-demand-struggle...
These tools do need attention, it's too bad there's not a better model than subscription bases like these.
Pretty sure, based on TCL base, that these tools were native Unix at some point, so the no-linux-free-beer vs windows-free-beer version are hilarious...
Ultimately one has, with so many vendor tools, a windows box somewhere so make it a remote compile machine.
[1]https://www.padilla.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/padil...
Removing seems hard/complicated but foil seems within most ppls reach.
also if you want to test/force ai adoption you have to put pressure by firing some
now wars will put us into further stasis or decline via increased inflation pressure.
Arbitration idea: if a user doesn't need high QOS of newest LLM, slip them a cheaper LLM, run their query at reduced quality. measure if they cost you fewer $s in the lower QOS. => profit.
For chatgpt the arbitration opportunity looks more like "we could allocate this amount of gpu to training or inference, we are losing money if we offer the highest quality infra"
In addition there's other interesting economics scaling that can be done outside of "models of models" that are far more profitable. I won't go over all of them (and some of them I feel are quite powerful) but the laziest one is that subscription models count on some zombie users as a counterweight to highly expensive single users, and as a source of stable cashflow.
Zombie users are ones that are paying for sub but not actively or barely using the service
Insurers are also adding some %+ increase on premiums every year, which is taken as a % of their yearly spend, ie 2-3%.
ie (1+inflation)^N*(base_prem+overpay_prem_increase) = new_premium. The compounding of $ returned is pretty big on this.
That being said underwriting risk, under the law and avoiding correlated risks, is tough.
They will just have to recompete!
There's a small private airfield to the west with only a single victor airway connecting to el-paso. the victors end at 17999 ft, effectively cutting traffic for non-commercial or non-business jet operators.
Closure of the victor airway there seems, again limiting airborne craft due to airborne hazards.
Hazards in the air, near the surface that are, seemingly, unplanned with a cone pointing at mexico.
That's kind of the most anyone will get until more info, could be some urgent testing of some capability or response to small craft (drones) coming over the boarder. Emergency timing could be to garner interest or emphasize importance, which works well politically.
Las Cruces International Airport and Dana Jetport are unaffected.
In general I believe abundance of resources exist in modern society and that there is less and less consideration for the lives of others, not in the "generational trauma" sense, but in the real basics of food, water and shelter.
A lot of people point to hard problems such as the "food miles problem"[1] but are, in many cases, conflicts that drive scarcity for one purpose or another.
ie enterprise customers will enable it, consumers will do it if they are tech savvy and your mom/dad/granddaughter/grandson/nephew/niece will have the default option.
when you are at home you will have nat and when you are not you will be uniquely identified.
A local router that I can control deals with how to map from my public IP to my private IPs.
This is not security but is obfuscation of the traffic.
Obfuscation becomes almost impossible in the IPV6 context where NAT isn't necessary, it becomes optional, and given the likely trajectory that option will be exercised by sophisticated enterprise customers only.
Ultimately if there's too much unpredictable behavior the pain endured will become higher than the pain of eroding trust... which if trust was truly eroding would be signaled by establishment of monetary systems independent of the US, probably with the International Monetary Fund as a base, backed by at least India, China & Europe.
I believe that the near-term de-dollarization isn't as much trust erosion as it is a tool to provide monetary penalty for behaving in unpredictable ways.
However it will provide incentive to move away from the dollar in the long-term, ie as Fareed Zakaria says "recent actions are accelerating the world to the multipolar future".
I guess I have pretty defined eating times and don't really think about food until I am hungry.
One thing that has changed a lot is that my lunches use to be either plain sandwich (like cheese meat and bread) or whatever I bought from a local restaurant.
I hated the sandwich days. I don't like mayo but the sandwiches always left me hungry and scavenging. Adding some hummus spread was a pretty huge change in the satisfaction that I got from that meal, and it doesn't leave me hungry.
At least the author clearly delinated that it is indeed sloppiest of slop.
straight up honest - originally called this "make-it-stop" but then saw @TimDarcet also built similar and named it STFU. wayyyyy better name. so stole it. sorry not sorry.
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Probably the reason that the code "worked" from a single prompt. Could potentially have downloaded the github repo first...
The point the author makes is that sometimes you are not in control of those projects. Therefore "letting them fail" seems a false choice constructed by the author.
A better title "You don't know what other people are doing and you don't know why unless it is your job to do so."