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Comment by omgJustTest | Hacker News Reader

My "oh sh* moment" with GenAI is ongoing and is watching all the correlated financials unwind when TSMC said "we can only support so much"[1].

Very few things in life experience exponential growth and assembled systems don't often stay that way if they don't become sigmoidal. ie its exponential and end is nigh xor its exponential then sigmoidal xor linear.

Also a bit hilarious to believe that a single 3 month cycle at TSMC could determine a severe amount of propped valutions.

[1] https://www.theverge.com/tech/943066/tsmc-ai-demand-struggle...

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But it would still be very ignorant to just not follow it very very closely and take it serious if something throws a lot of signals like AI and Robotics does.

We are in 2026, supply chains are highly optimized which means we could make and deliver a lot of robots in a relative short period of time.

We also have solved all fundamental issues we had 20 years ago like communication thanks to the internet, translation and co.

We know have a system, which can be copy and pasted and run in parallel with a snap of a finger.

If (and this If is not that crazy) some breakthrough happens tomorrow, this can be used the day after tomorrow.

I currently say that it could become very very interesting in 5-15 years. I still follow AI very closely and i do not have the feeling anything is slowing down.

And independent of something happening, a lot of people did not find jobs due to this AI investment, a lot of jobs already disappeared too.

Long-term is not what ppl are arguing for and that's not what the stock multiples imply.

Companies like Nvidia, up 1000% since 2023, clearly cannot rely on "oh you'd get returns in 5-15 years". They (Jensen and others) are arguing for AGI in a year (he said this at a talk at Stanford ~ 1yr ago).

Long-term, ie 5-15 years there will be many technologies that change the world. Some will come from transformative tech, others will come from other places.

Financial instruments, investors etc have timelines.

Blowing timelines can risk the future if not properly aligned, especially in correlated risk. See the internet bubble, where it was clearly important but took 15 years to recover after the 2000 boom/bust.

In general, longevity risk can include the financial instrument timelines, it can include other technical factors about the technology, and it can also be that the boom serves important people too soon with gains, real limits are imposed, and then the whole system resets until the real limits are overcome or resolved.

Downvotes aside, there are real risks in the ability to meet demand.

Geopolitical and other risks exist here. The future isnt doom and gloom but it isnt exponentials and sunshine either.

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