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object-a

613 karma · joined November 2, 2022

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object-a··on Upgrade Your Development Environments with Devbox
Devbox is using Nix the Package Manager, not Nix the Operating System. The Nix Package Manager can run on macOS and Linux without needing a container or VM, since it installs the packages natively.
object-a··on Inflation Appears to Be Over
I will grant that the PPI and CPI are not in a clear lead-follow relationship, for composition reasons that I mentioned above and that are covered in the article you posted.

However, the PPI can still be a leading indicator of the direction that consumer prices are moving. Here's a recent article from the Federal Reserve on this question:

> However, we also see a considerable positive correlation between lagged values of monthly PPI inflation and the current month's inflation. In particular, the correlations between current monthly PCE inflation and previous months' PPI inflation up to seven months back are all greater than 0.3. This is our first clue that PPI inflation contains information for future changes in the PCE price index.

https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_b...

object-a··on Inflation Appears to Be Over
It is not "simping" to point out that factor prices have an impact on consumer prices. And while some companies do have (too much) pricing power, I wouldn't categorize it as unilateral and unchecked
object-a··on Inflation Appears to Be Over
It's true, but a large gap between consumer and producer prices is hard to maintain over the long run.

It is true that there are other factors which can drive inflation and rising consumer prices. However, if the recent bout of inflation was caused by supply chain issues, or by food + energy costs rising, then a decline in producer prices would probably slow consumer price inflation.

object-a··on Inflation Appears to Be Over
CPI includes a lot of stuff that's not in PPI (including shelter and rent), so it would depend on what the components or drivers of inflation are in the CPI.

If owner equivalent rent is moving lower (which it was in October), and if prior inflation was caused by supply chain tightness or higher input costs, than a lower PPI could indicate that supply chain tightness has eased, and goods inflation will head lower or stabilize.

It's also worth noting that CPI moves slower than PPI because rents make a pretty big percentage of CPI, and rents move slower than PPI due to how the BLS measures them. It is _a_ leading indicator, but not the _sole_ leading indicator.

object-a··on Inflation Appears to Be Over
Inflation will probably never be "over", since stable inflation is generally positive for growth and employment. The Fed's target isn't for 0%, its around 2% y/y
object-a··on Inflation Appears to Be Over
PPI is a leading indicator for CPI, since it represents what producers are paying. A falling PPI would (probably) indicate lower CPI inflation in future releases.
object-a··on Inflation Appears to Be Over
No, but they affect consumer prices.
object-a··on Inflation Appears to Be Over
The article is reporting that wholesale prices (measured by the PPI) have declined 0.5% Y/Y. It might take a while to affect CPI, but that would strongly suggest that inflation has reached a turning point.
object-a··on Auto industry executives admit electric vehicle plans are in jeopardy
For most people, I suspect a plugin hybrid will be the right solution/tradeoff until the technology evolves, or charging infrastructure becomes more prevalent. Being able to do most of your local / day to day driving on electric, but still having access to an ICE and gas refueling for longer range trips, seems like a winning combination for now.

If we care about reducing carbon, we'll probably get more milage out of more walkable cities, expanded public transit, and e-bikes/scooters for local trips.

object-a··on Child labor in chocolate industry: 'It is worse than you may realize'
In the aftermath of WWII and the Korean War, the US invested significantly in rebuilding + supporting most of the rapidly industrialized countries that you've named.

Western Europe, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, all received extensive economic development support from the US from 1940's-1970's, which helped a lot with that rapid industrialization.

object-a··on Child labor in chocolate industry: 'It is worse than you may realize'
There is probably sufficient global surplus to ensure that children do not need to work to survive.

As described in the article, companies that control supply chains can squeeze suppliers so that all the surplus accumulates in wealthier countries, instead of with the suppliers. That is not an inevitability, it is a choice made by “our society”.

My point was against the sense of inevitability in the parent reply. We can imagine and enact a more equitable distribution. We don’t even need to mess around with socialism for decades to do it

object-a··on Child labor in chocolate industry: 'It is worse than you may realize'
My question back would be: why _is_ child labor the only alternative to extreme poverty or starvation? Why can't adults be paid a sufficient wage to avoid starvation, or why can't our society provide for these children without requiring them to work?

The fact that things are that way currently, is not an argument that things should be that way. It's worth discussing what in the current system necessitates that children work or starve, and whether that's fixable.

object-a··on Elon Musk wants your entire financial life on X by 2024
Both Meta and Uber have a much better claim and progress towards being an everything app.
object-a··on New California Car Break-In Law Would Close 'Loophole'–The Unlocked Door Defense
Is the issue that burglars are getting arrested and then having the charges dropped? Or is the issue that they are not being arrested in the first place?

The article provides no data, so it's unclear if this measure will actually help.

object-a··on So far, AI is a money pit that isn't paying off
Is that true for the newer versions they’ve launched, since he left GitHub?
object-a··on So far, AI is a money pit that isn't paying off
> The problem is that users pay $10 a month subscription fee for Copilot but, according to a source interviewed by the Journal, Microsoft lost an average of $20 per user during the first few months of this year. Some users cost the company an average loss of over $80 per month, the source told the paper.
object-a··on First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources
> Infectious material used in procedures with a potential for creating aerosols or splashes, or used in high concentrations or large volumes, must be handled in an annually certified biosafety cabinet.
object-a··on Are Gas Stoves Causing Asthma?
I think very few people make the decision primarily based on the stove provided.
object-a··on First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources
COVID is only BSL-3. China has over 100 of those, so the odds of a city center being near a lab is much higher.

If COVID had an incubation period of a 1-2 weeks, it's also possible for the outbreak to occur in a city center that is not a likely location for human/bat/animal interactions, so the percentage will increase further.

object-a··on First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources
The theory (and even wilder ones, like COVID being a bioweapon) were reported all through 2020 on Fox News and other media sources. It wasn't a silent theory. There were a lot of crazier theories about China manufacturing COVID as a bioweapon, which got lumped into the "Lab Leak" bucket.
object-a··on First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources
I don't blame people for doubting either, especially because it was mixed in with assertions on the right that COVID was a bioweapon gone rogue.

My point isn't whether it's credible, just that one of the most powerful people in the world expressed support for Lab Leak very early on

object-a··on First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52496098
object-a··on First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources
Until a cause is completely identified, there will always be "reason to believe". That doesn't mean that it's the most likely source or the most reasonable hypothesis.

The President was also claiming the virus came from WIV back in May 2020. It was a common theory in some media circles

object-a··on First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources
The President of the United States was claiming that COVID was engineered in China as early as May 2020. I don't know how someone can claim they weren't allowed to talk about it.
object-a··on Portugal has a divorce rate of 94%
How is this calculated? Is this (#divorces/#marriages)? If so, you could get a really high rate if the number of marriages has dropped significantly, but divorces remain constant.

In other words, it may not mean 94% chance of divorcing if you get married

EDIT: Looks like the number was pulled from here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divorce_demography

Which is calculated by the ratio of:

# of divorces per 1000 people per year

divided by

# of marriages per 1000 people per year

Looking at the table, Portugal has the lowest marriage rate per 1000 per year of all the countries listed, but an average divorce rate.

object-a··on SpaceX grounded after a rocket explosion caused extensive environmental damage
That’s true, but if you shipped code that caused ecological damage due to a failure to follow correct procedures, there would be corrective measures. For example:

- You might not be allowed to ship code without oversight

- You might have to complete a post mortem and analysis of what went wrong

- If you were negligent (e.g., you skipped protocol to ship on a 4/20 joke), you might be fired

The FAA is basically saying “Something went way outside parameters here and you caused a lot of damage. Take a pause and figure that out”, and the parent poster is mad about that

object-a··on SpaceX grounded after a rocket explosion caused extensive environmental damage
Not only did this rocket not make it close to the stars, the damage could have been prevented by following fire diversion best practices.

It's even possible that the rocker exploded because they failed to follow those practices

object-a··on I did the math. SF is 2.6x more dangerous per sq mi than any other US city
Don't know why you're being downvoted -- there are parts of Chicago that are 2x as dense as San Francisco, and parts that are less than 1/10th as dense. The denser parts of Chicago hold about the same number of people as San Francisco.

If you wanted to use this metric, you'd need to compare the incidents per square mile of different neighborhoods or city centers. Just doing incidents/mi^2 for a whole city is nonsense

object-a··on I did the math. SF is 2.6x more dangerous per sq mi than any other US city
There is already a much better metric for calculating your probability of being a victim of a crime within a city -- it's the per-capita crime rate.
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