48 karma · joined January 7, 2010
In [1]: lambdas_listgen = list(((lambda: i) for i in range(10)))
In [2]: [f() for f in lambdas_listgen]
Out[2]: [9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9]Moving the goalposts.
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Not complex even factoring in reputational damage?
In this case, probably because the original article was needlessly confrontational.
(Edit: I hadn't considered the possibility of somehow killing all my instances through human error. Ouch. That probably warrants one slave on EBS per AZ.)
I don't see the article doing this, though it could certainly be used that way (http://lesswrong.com/lw/he/knowing_about_biases_can_hurt_peo...), but as warning about a bias you might see in the world or in yourself. I mean, look at the final paragraph:
"If meta-contrarianism is a real tendency in over-intelligent people, it doesn't mean they should immediately abandon their beliefs; that would just be meta-meta-contrarianism. It means that they need to recognize the meta-contrarian tendency within themselves and so be extra suspicious and careful about a desire to believe something contrary to the prevailing contrarian wisdom, especially if they really enjoy doing so."
The parent mentioned the cost of "fabricating that technology", not of processors themselves; this is vague, but AFAIK, fabs are getting more expensive quickly.
Note that "Singularity" doesn't always refer to exponential growth (http://yudkowsky.net/singularity/schools); SIAI in particular focuses on the "intelligence explosion" definition.
Is this belief based on your familiarity with and assessment of the best(1) arguments(2) for and against Singularity/AI risk? If not, then what? Do you think the idea is absurd enough to confidently dismiss without engaging, and if so, why?
(1) http://lesswrong.com/lw/lw/reversed_stupidity_is_not_intelli...
(2) e.g. http://singinst.org/AIRisk.pdf, http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/The_Hanson-Yudkowsky_AI-Foom_...
Regardless, I would think that instability of results under seemingly minor variations in conditions for rats suggests we should drastically reduce our confidence in any generalization of even the seemingly more relevant result.
This is the same sort of reasoning as "either I win the lottery or I don't, so there's a 50% chance". More mutations are neutral, than harmful, than beneficial.
Tip: Empathy is easier if you don't describe the people you're trying to empathize with using negative-affect terms.
If enough people are distracted by their annoyance at un-disclaimed overgeneralizations, you haven't actually increased readability.