http://slashdot.org/poll/421/My-Age-is
In 1998, 22% of respondents were ages 16-20, 53% were in their 20s, 15% in their 30s and 5% over 40.
As of this writing (and assuming that I did my arithmetic correctly), ~7% of respondents on this poll are ages 16-20, ~60% are in their 20s, ~25% in their 30s, and ~7% are over 40.
Obviously there are a lot of caveats here, but the slight increase in the overall age of techies between these two polls is nothing like you'd expect if everyone who started in their 20s in 1998 stuck around until today.
*edit: fixed arithmetic error. D'oh!
-----Original Message----- From: Paul Velleman [SMTPfv2@cornell.edu] Sent: Wednesday, January 14, 1998 5:10 PM To: apstat-l@etc.bc.ca; Kim Robinson Cc: mmbalach@mtu.edu Subject: Re: qualtiative study
Sorry Kim, but it just aint so. Voluntary response data are worthless. One excellent example is the books by Shere Hite. She collected many responses from biased lists with voluntary response and drew conclusions that are roundly contradicted by all responsible studies. She claimed to be doing only qualitative work, but what she got was just plain garbage. Another famous example is the Literary Digest "poll". All you learn from voluntary response is what is said by those who choose to respond. Unless the respondents are a substantially large fraction of the population, they are very likely to be a biased -- possibly a very biased -- subset. Anecdotes tell you nothing at all about the state of the world. They can't be "used only as a description" because they describe nothing but themselves.
http://mathforum.org/kb/thread.jspa?threadID=194473&tsta...
For more on the distinction between statistics and mathematics, see
http://statland.org/MAAFIXED.PDF
and
http://escholarship.org/uc/item/6hb3k0nz
I think Professor Velleman promotes "Voluntary response data are worthless" as a slogan for the same reason an earlier generation of statisticians taught their students the slogan "correlation does not imply causation." That's because common human cognitive errors run strongly in one direction on each issue, so the slogan has take the cognitive error head-on. Of course, a distinct pattern in voluntary responses tells us SOMETHING (maybe about what kind of people come forward to respond), just as a correlation tells us SOMETHING (maybe about a lurking variable correlated with both things we observe), but it doesn't tell us enough to warrant a firm conclusion about facts of the world. The Literary Digest poll
http://historymatters.gmu.edu/d/5168/
http://www.math.uah.edu/stat/data/LiteraryDigest.pdf
is a spectacular historical example of a voluntary response poll that didn't give a correct picture of reality at all.
There are ways of correcting for non-responders though. For example, there is the Monitoring The Future study that asks high school kids about their history of drug use. Almost everyone who is in school that day answers the questions, but that still leaves everyone who was absent that day. So what they do is they ask the kids the number of days of school they have missed so far this year, and then they correlate the number of missed days with drug usage. Using this information they can correct for every kid who was absent, because they know how many absentees there were and can figure out the distribution of how many of those kids have skipped one day of school so far, two days of school so far, etc. And then they can assign drug usage rates accordingly.
There is an entire literature on the validity of self-reported drug use that they take into account. For example, there is a phenomenon called recanting, where someone will admit to using a drug one year and then deny it in future years. They correct for this by ignoring when someone recants if they have already admitted to using the drug on at least two previous surveys. (Which would be administered at least two years apart.)
What they found was that the people most likely to recant were the ones who got jobs where they would now be fired for admitting drug use. For example, cops recanted drug use after previously admitting to it at twice the rate of the general public. So that's how they made the decision to discount recanting for people who had already admitted to drug use twice or more times.
As for people who try to lie and claim they are taking drugs that they haven't been, this is corrected for by asking about the same drug multiple times in different ways. I think they may also salt the questions by asking about drugs that don't exist.
You can obviously read all about the methodology of Monitoring the Future by downloading it, and here is an enormous PDF with tons of studies on the validity of self-reported drug use in general:
http://archives.drugabuse.gov/pdf/monographs/monograph167/do...
All in all the methods they are using seem fairly accurate. It would definitely be a little higher if they corrected for more stuff, so for example when they say that 82% of Americans have used marijuana, it's actually probably closer to 85 or 86% when you correct for additional things that they haven't.
The research seems to show that the self-reported responses are pretty accurate. For example, the number of people who reported using LSD basically went to zero right after the Pickard bust in 2003, when pretty much the entire US production got shut down. This means that if there are people lying about taking drugs they haven't been taking, it can't really be much than a couple tenths of a percent.
This is very different, because while there is some data missing, it is missing at random (albeit weighted), and can thus be corrected for.
If it was the case that kids avoided coming into school that day, because they knew the survey would be held, it would be a very different problem.
In this case, there's a strong argument to be made that the samples could skew young (if for no other reason than because younger people frequent sites like HN more than older people). It's also quite possible that the demographics for HN and for slashdot are different in a way that would make the HN audience skew younger. But the voluntary response process itself? I think it's a stretch to claim that it'll cause a measurable bias in age distributions, across two different surveys, spaced a decade apart. You'd have to argue that younger people in 2011 are more likely to answer a poll than younger people in 1998 were to answer a poll. Possible? Sure. The most likely source of error here? Nah.
In other words, if you're going to pick (and you should!), pick on the BIG, OBVIOUS differences between the data sets...not the little ones.
I personally can't see significant problems of this over any survey technique.
There are problems with questionnaires and self-responses, sure, but to say they are worthless is to exclude an entire category of data based on a selective opinion. Horses for courses, if you like.
Many statistical methods are available, some of which are more appropriate than others in particular situations. There is little wrong with convenience sampling if what is of primary importance is convenience, e.g.
(That being said, I'd be careful with taking the results of this poll and applying it to any technology site and therefore the interwebs etc. Inferring from this data that we don't have an ageing population problem would be dangerous).
I have an interesting observation around this. I got started in this industry "for real" in the late 90s and worked for some "new media" companies (as they were known at the time!). I also read a lot of the magazines that featured things like "The 50 Most Important People Online" and similar crud.
And.. recently I tried tracking down people whose names I could remember back then. Few were still involved with tech or Internet-specific work. And of those "important" people, few were names I recognized.
To me, at least, it seems like the group of people working online has changed a great deal in the last 13 years. And I'm surprised by that.
I can only hazard a guess at what I'll be doing in 20 years.
Immeasurably.
>Like me. For over 20 years.
Fair chance I'd be retired by then unless I had a nasty divorce or something. But who knows?
Possibly. The odds are pretty bad for retirement at 40 though. Seems to be those who are successful / lucky enough to exit (making an assumption about your retirement plan), are also the kind of people that tend to just start another company or be an involved smart-money investor.
I used to think I would retire. I have enough mostly-passive income to live on, but here I am doing another startup.
YMMV
The entrepreneurial bug and divorce are the only things I foresee really jeopardizing that. That or being seriously fertile.
Hard tellin'. I'll be happy either way, and regardless of whether or not I'm getting paid, I'll code 'til I die.
In reality, retirement would just mean being much choosier about my projects and spending more time on open source.
I grok ya.
Programming was still a hobby for me at that point. Still is. Sometimes wish I didn't spoil it by making it a career. ;)
I feel old now. I started a record label at 22 and wanted to do nothing but music and party. Didn't get a "career" until a couple of years later when my record label burnt out and the parties stopped...
Just remember to live a little. ;)
I'm 23 now, and up until last July I was a professional touring musician (drummer!)...
During college my band signed to Victory Records. We all decided to finish up college and began touring immediately after we graduated. (Computer Engineer here...) I had quite a few people tell me I was making a big mistake continuing with the band and not pursuing a career with my degree... but I honestly believe I learned more on the road (about the world in general) than I would have during that same amount of time in an office.
I had a lot of fun doing it too... it was an opportunity I'm very glad I didn't give up. I left the band for personal reasons/differences and have been working on my startup day-in, day-out ever since.
My startup is actually centered around touring bands and their management/labels/booking. You can check it out at http://www.rela.cc if you want. It's actually days away from officially launching... I just need to add the ~30-second ads for bands and management, and make a few changes to the video tutorial.
So yeah... have fun while you can people and don't pass up once in a lifetime opportunities no matter your age! Maybe if my startup sustains me I'll be able to play music on the road again.
I was in it for the music (looove to drum!) and possibly being a positive influence... let's just say the rest of the guys had other motives. :|
I was also in a hard rock band for 7 years, though we never signed anywhere.
I've actually shortened the descriptions 4 times to as short as I can make them while still explaining the full idea. If you can come up with shorter descriptions please help me out. :)
I've not really found work to spoil programming any more than any other bad job would.
>Just remember to live a little ;)
Just got back from a 3 week trip to SE Asia.
I'm taking time for myself as I go.
I was raised by the stereotypical protestant parents, so I've always been rather work minded. I'm intensely frugal as well, asia trip notwithstanding.
My childhood was code and hacker/unix lore. I grew up reading stories about ken, rms, Pike, etc. I don't really know what else I could do for a living and be happy with, except for maybe some other engineering discipline.
I'm not as provincial as my background would imply.
I would never subject my (potential) children to my childhood.
It gave me a boost in my career and programming, but that's nothing that can't be overcome with a marginal gap in work ethic.
That said, I was very fortunate to be able to crawl out of the lower classes.
I wouldn't trade mine in for thiers though - I love where I am :)
Many many months of ramen and green tea.
Many...many months.
(I'm 45.)
* And that is before seeing the age group that is showing as 'dead'.
I'm 28 myself, seems like 25-30 are the 'inbetweeners'.
Well done.
Upvote.
;-)
It's working well.
I feel like I learn a lot from the experiences of the 'older' crowd, as they seem to have enough stabilityto take more risks with their ideas, but I also learn a lot from the younger crowd who jump in regardless.
Although I don't think there were any surprises in the poll, I wouldn write it off as a useless post, because like eveything else that hits the stream, it kicks off some great conversation. Thanks for your thoughts, everyone.
11-15 and 16-20 would have been significantly more telling. (As an aside, this is especially strange considering ranges such as 41-45.)
To figure out the actual distribution of people, you'll have to subtract 30 from the 16-20 range and then compare that with the 11-15 range, and then add back in the 30 votes distributed correctly.
Edit: Go to your profile and enable "showdead", and you will be able to see and vote on it.
HN really needs a way to correct votes. The arrows are hideously small on an iPhone.
So, really, you're just at the cutting edge :)
Which means I will be terrible in my old age...
I currently work at a small startup with people who have been in the game for a long time (I along with 1 other programmer are in our 20's the rest of the team is 40's or more) and it is an absolute blast learning new things at an extremely rapid pace.
It was after only 3 months at this small startup, in the middle of things (I'd done my own startup but this was when the ah ha moment happened) I realised that my passion was to be a part of a small team that changed the world, and not be stuck in a big corporation somewhere chugging away with no real way to differentiate myself from everyone else there.
That is why I am really happy to be a part of the HN community where I can learn more information, and hopefully someday soon in the near future I too will have a successful small business with millions of dollars in revenue.
People say that the smartest people are uncertain of their own abilities, because they see the bigger picture. They are the ones that can see just how deep this rabbit hole goes. Infinity can be a daunting thing. I guess it can either make you give up, or push harder.
I'd hazard a guess to say you are on track (although who am I to say) :) never become a senior developer, just move along the spectrum of a curious, 'young' programmer mind.
Happy birthday in a couple of months :)
For instance, capturing situations like: Are you a 65 year old grandfather that feels younger through the interaction with the core crowd here? Are you a 12 year old aspiring hacker that seeks the maturity of the seemingly 20-something base contrary to the peers of their own age?
http://www.paulgraham.com/sfp.html
Not specific to YC, he has this to say about older startup founders:
The other cutoff, 38, has a lot more play in it. One reason I put it there is that I don't think many people have the physical stamina much past that age. I used to work till 2:00 or 3:00 AM every night, seven days a week. I don't know if I could do that now.
Also, startups are a big risk financially. If you try something that blows up and leaves you broke at 26, big deal; a lot of 26 year olds are broke. By 38 you can't take so many risks-- especially if you have kids.
8-15
16-31
32-63
Which are a bit broad, but why not: 8-15
16-23
24-31
32-47
48-63
64-95
96-127
Or something like that :-)TL/DR: "There was nothing like Hacker News in my day"
Don't abuse it!
I shall NOT abuse it. I respect this place too much, and PG is a hero of mine. I've been reading every word he wrote since the Dilbert Cube days. every. single. word:)
Curios If i could link a poll of how many are married in the respective agr groups ?
:-O
0 - 8
8 - 16
16 - 32
32 - 64
64 - 128
Someone pointed out (in the gender poll) that HN allows more than 1 vote on a poll at a time so sorry for splitting it up! I had no idea.