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notpachet

2,068 karma · joined June 28, 2021

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notpachet··on How much oil-market buffer is left?
> Let's be better please.

That rhetorical horse left the allegorical barn a long time ago.

notpachet··on Watch AI materials-science and bioscience abilities closely
> if you can do the worst “bad” thing possible, you can also do the best “good” thing possible

You say this like it's a truism, but I don't think it is. The bad things may be categorically easier than the good things. It's easier to destabilize a delicate system than to stabilize it. It's easier to break something than to fix it.

notpachet··on Fable 5.1 Solves the Cyphral Distich, a 370-year-old cipher
I did bother to read it, and that isn't what I meant. I wasn't referring to one-off errors that you can fix after successfully decoding a cipher into something that produces a majority-correct answer. I meant something more akin to what schoen's answer touched on: whether there are any closed-form mathematical/statistical analyses that can be performed ahead of time to assess the structural legitimacy of any ciphertext before you spend a lot of cycles trying to decode it.

Thanks for the driveby snark though!

notpachet··on Fable 5.1 Solves the Cyphral Distich, a 370-year-old cipher
That's pretty good.
notpachet··on Fable 5.1 Solves the Cyphral Distich, a 370-year-old cipher
> It spun for 52 seconds so maybe some Python was involved.

Come for the AI doom, stay for the programming languages (remember those?) catching strays

notpachet··on Fable 5.1 Solves the Cyphral Distich, a 370-year-old cipher
Cipher noob question: is there any check that can be done to ensure a cipher is actually decodable? What if the author made a flaw when encoding it, so that it's not actually solvable?
notpachet··on Feeling Sad about AI
"My dosimeter only reads 3.6 roentgen / hour!"
notpachet··on Feeling Sad about AI
Not the parent, but pointing out a couple of problems in your analysis:

First, arctic temperatures: this is a widely misunderstood point. Notice that in the graph, the non-summer months are noticeably warmer. The summer months are going to be effectively capped at around 0 degrees until all the ice is gone, so holding up this graph and saying "look, the temperature never got above freezing!" is misleading, because the "warming" is actually happening as a function of melting ice, not air temperature.

Sea ice extent: the last 18 years were the lowest 18 minimums on record. Also, ice extent != ice volume. March 2026 recorded a record-low ice volume. An extent chart reads the same regardless of whether the underlying ice is thin or thick.

Greenland mass balance: here you're just plain wrong. You linked to the surface mass balance page, in other words, snowfall minus surface melt + runoff. This does not account for glacial calving and basal melt. The page you linked says this directly. Total mass balance is a grimmer picture: an average loss of about 252 km³ of water per year over 2003-2025, contributing 0.69 mm/yr to sea level rise.

notpachet··on Feeling Sad about AI
There's a mythological story about the hubris of flying; I'm sure Claude can pull it up for you.
notpachet··on Feeling Sad about AI
Moreover who’s actually getting exterminated?

The species whose value was questionable.

The good ones remain.

notpachet··on Feeling Sad about AI
There's a larger existential crisis still in store for you. Our global civilization is collapsing. We are choking to death on the unchecked negative externalities of our own progress. It is our species' Achilles heel. Whether or not an individual developer adapts to this temporary capability blip (agentic coding) will not matter in the long run. The systems necessary for supporting these capabilities are too brittle to survive the century.
notpachet··on Detecting and countering misuse of AI: September 2026
Instead we just get good, hard slop
notpachet··on iPhone Duo
Because they're addicted to online content consumption. See also: sports betting, cigarettes, fast food.
notpachet··on Flock Wants a Closely Surveilled World with No Exit
> the way they'd go after a very inconvenient activist

FTFY

notpachet··on Ask HN: Why were OpenAI, Claude, and Grok simultaneously down?
Related reading:

The Waluigi Effect: After you train an LLM to satisfy a desirable property, then it's easier to elicit the chatbot into satisfying the exact opposite property.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D7PumeYTDPfBTp3i7/the-waluig...

notpachet··on The Post-AI Internet Doesn't Look Great
You've hit on something important, and it's real, not cosmetic.
notpachet··on Delta
GNU Screen has supported multiuser editing since 1993.

"You newer models are happy scraping the shit... because you've never seen a miracle"

notpachet··on Position: LLMs Can't Jump
We seem to have come around to a new magical age.
notpachet··on Intelligence Is Not the Main Bottleneck
> the guy

> he

Your gender biases are showing!

notpachet··on Intelligence Is Not the Main Bottleneck
And that, furthermore, the new labs and the old labs still both remain incentivized by the regulatory environment to chase the wrong targets. The new lab might just iterate towards the wrong targets faster.
notpachet··on Control the Ideas, Not the Code
"Testing shows the presence, not the absence of bugs"

- Dijkstra

notpachet··on Automation Without Understanding
I think about this a lot. From the POV of a medieval peasant, we likely reached the singularity a long time ago.
notpachet··on Good Tools Are Invisible
`command_a | vim - -c "file /dev/stdout" | command_b`

or, assuming vim is your $EDITOR, you can use vipe:

`command_a | vipe | command_b`

notpachet··on RubyLLM: A Ruby framework for all major AI providers
Languages are always evolving, because the needs they serve are always evolving. Stasis is death.

> I have been using ruby since 2005 or so. Static types were never relevant or needed in the slightest here.

We are like Liebniz monads, with disjoint views of the same universe due to our different experiences. I worked for several years at Shopify and there were droves of developers begging for types. Shopify itself recognized this need. We contributed early to Sorbet and began implementing it in the main monolith prior to it being publicly announced. I personally was the incident response on-call for a million-dollar bug that static typing would have prevented from ever being merged. And so on.

notpachet··on RubyLLM: A Ruby framework for all major AI providers
No, it's just a tool someone posted that's written in Ruby, with a strong signal that the authors are LLM proponents. It could have been a todo list and I'd still have the same question.
notpachet··on RubyLLM: A Ruby framework for all major AI providers
I didn't misunderstand what this library is about. I assume the authors are using LLM's to help author their code in general, even meta-frameworks like this.
notpachet··on RubyLLM: A Ruby framework for all major AI providers
Why would anyone still build in dynamically typed languages in 2026? Why relinquish the crystal clear signals that static typing is able to provide to the LLM?
notpachet··on I admire Fabrice Bellard. He is almost certainly a better overall programmer
That's my favorite algorithm of all time
notpachet··on The dead economy theory
But orangutans are where the protein's at!
notpachet··on I believe there are entire companies right now under AI psychosis
Another strong contender for humanity's epitaph
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