430 karma · joined January 27, 2023
With "X is the problem", X is always a valid pointer to that 90% regardless of the actual merits or demerits of X itself. Changing fashions update the name, but the value is always the same...
https://studio.ribbonfarm.com/p/the-use-and-misuse-of-the-oo...
If I were to summarize it to a 5 year old I'd use the analogy of rhythm games like taiko drum master. Once you make a mistake your timing is thrown completely off and everything going forward is wrong unless you can get your timing back. OODA is way of thinking about things to help you "get into the rhythm" of a situation faster than an opponent.
Sample: https://twitter.com/a_yawning_cat/status/1329310154630696960...
A way of being that constantly re-emphasizes that way of being. Super-linear growth that doesn't stall out or crumble when external motivation is absent.
Normally the market distributes demand in a continuous and predictable fashion so it's easier to plan for the future. This includes demand for toilet paper, eggs, and tech jobs.
When the market is manipulated excessively, the results are hard to predict as the feedback is delayed and noisy. Like steering a huge ship with siri voice commands and an antagonistic crew.
So when averaged over a long period of time, the steering does kinda-sorta align to a desired path, but like a fishtailing car, it causes a lot of collateral damage and is never really in control.
E.g. demand for tech jobs was pulled forward causing long term planning (multi year degrees) to fail since supply is now being dumped onto a market with no demand. (and the previous excess demand just creating bloated orgs and salaries).
This disrupts career paths b/c it delays the the ability to compound wealth/network/skills/etc...
This has further negative effects b/c the difference between two individuals compounding at the same rate but with a different X axis start time is also an exponential function. (https://www.desmos.com/calculator/88s8c2uus2)
This increasing inequality drives up the prices of assets that are used to absorb excess wealth like stocks and real estate (considered a 'necessity' for life scripts like starting-a-family)
Newcomers are forced into either starting over in some overlooked blue ocean leveraging new innovation, forced into negative expected return but high volatility strategies like robinhood/wallstreetbets, or forced into new life scripts that don't rely on clinging to a wealth sponge. *
* Crypto has elements of all of these including new kinds of wealth sponges that are completely useless (unlike a house) so for many it seems like the only path to an acceptable future.
E.g. an early employee gets a lot less stock than an early founder despite everyone at this stage doing a lot of work. There is a sharp boundary that distinguishes between those involved in the "process of creation", an "elder" or parental class, and the followers.
This process happens a few times so there are multiple boundaries where eldership and sense of ownership falls off dramatically.
Individuals that are hired past a certain fall-off point are compensated in ownership units only to be competitive with other companies. E.g. whether it's RSUs or options, the "expected value" of the compensation is around market rate, only the volatility(kurtosis) of the expected outcome differs.
Since there isn't a direct sense of ownership over the revenue stream, individuals are motivated to increase compensation by managing larger teams b/c the market rate for someone who can do that is higher.
There is less return on effort and more risk to do sth like fight through the org structure to gain the necessary political capital to go all-in on an initiative, even with pocket aces.
It's better to work with the org structure and with the ambitions of the individuals you interact w/ daily in the local subtree.
"mastery" can be considered a hyper efficient destructive compression (experts are often unable to articulate or teach to beginners) that reduces latency of response to such extreme levels that they seem to be predicting the future or reacting at godlike speeds.
The trick I think is to do things/hobbies/work in a way where you are always in the process becoming someone else vs incremental improvements on on an existing identity.
Even if the improvements compound exponentially, or the identity is something meta like "lifelong learner", the feeling of stagnating within a loop always sets in after a while.
However the willingness to become "someone else" means that the underlying value system of what is sacred/profane is never set in stone. Each experience of novelty becomes more than stimulation that the identity consumes but a possibility of seeing life in a new way.
Since the policies of 2008, bank IOUs and central bank IOUs are basically the same since the central bank backs up all the other banks. 100 dollars held at Bank of America as "this is how much the bank owes me" is functionally the same as "this is how much the fed owes me"
In theory, private banks would've created a diverse ecosystem where bad or incompetent banks would get washed out leading to a stronger and more efficient private banking sector. In practice, they all needed to be saved. The resulting rules like lending standards coupled with existing regulation like KYC means that banks already act like arms of the central bank.
It's possible a CBDC just cuts out the middlemen so there could be benefits like lower interest rates on loans. There is concern with privacy and centralization of course, but that's not specific to the CBDC idea or tech and has already existed in a form for some time (e.g. canada trucking bank freezes)
Premise: Plotting market cap rather than price allows fundamentals like earnings & cash flow to be compared against the market valuation on the same Y axis.
The efficient-market "correctly" prices in positive or negative sentiment so this visualizes how much of that sentiment is hyping up or depressing the price.