15,652 karma · joined October 9, 2013
Grumpy and old, these days.
The best part is the spreadsheet, which makes him sound like he's just sloppy, but danluu specifically says he's being deliberately misleading elsewhere, like the opposite of hanlon's razor now? So is he being deliberately sloppy in his spreadsheets or is he just incompetent? I suppose both is a better read but you need more proof for the "deliberately misleading" line and the spreadsheet frankly is danluu's best evidence beyond the list of failed predictions which is less striking in my mind.
While I think he's probably wrong on the timing, which clearly has been wrong since 2024, it doesn't really address the greater critique, which is that ai companies and nvidia and memory manufacturers need revenues collectively in the trillions to make their investors whole. That is still unsustainable such that it's been called out by other investors and financial journalists.
The thing is these are more likely than not not sincere posts but are probably bots accounts used to get some skimming amount of money from the generated content. I'd rather read actually interesting details, not the "template engagement bait" (as the top comment) posted so we can debate that instead of this contentless generated post.
Stuff like this needs to go through approvals for obvious reasons before they can advertise them for having medical purposes.
The simple statement that none of this is what voters want if we're talking about a majority of them is just true. To say otherwise is to be ignorant of history since the 90s and the Rs under Newt Gingrich to this day, and how effectively as a party they've consolidated power in America. I'm not really saying it's evil or smart or anything (I do think it was smart and bold). But, polls do consistently show a majority of Americans have never been so pessimistic about the country and their leadership in both parties.
Did you really think the whites saw you as one of them? Were you so naive? Because you were "educated"? Because you worked in Silicon Valley or SF (you know California, the same places that Trump ranted against for years because they never voted for him)?
Because they want to mislead you.
I think the long term reality is that the models still need training data so they fundamentally do need new writing/code/art to train on, and even then the usual issues like hallucination will still be with us. It's just the moment that actually hurts the (already questionable) profitability of the model peddlers, they will have gotten their IPOs and they can safely jump ship and the ultimate mess can be passed to the softbanks, the temaseks, and the governments of the world to clean up for them. What the future holds after the crash I'm not sure as the models won't disappear (especially now that the stolen data is already crystalised in open source models) but in the near term the mass theft that constitutes llms will become more and more understood even amongst the PMC and that in order to remain viable, you need the productive to keep producing, and unlike LLMs, you can't force them to do it without payment.
I might be misremembering but your characters also had "spells," a menu for attacks but each attack was a random string of characters.