neffy

That´s not correct unfortunately, although it has been widely taught in economics text books, and you can blame Keynes for that. Keynes used that example to try and explain the process to parliament, and also to argue that the system didn't expand the deposit money supply over time. Ironically even the data (in the Macmillan report) he supplied contradicted him. It´s confusing as well, because the fundamental rules have changed over time.

Banks can lend up to an allowed multiple of their cash or equivalent reserves (gold standard regulation), and in the Basel era are also regulated on the ratio of their capital reserves to their loans. This acts to stop hyperflationary expansion, but there is a feedback loop between new deposits and new capital so the system does still expand slowly over time. This may be beneficial.

In engineering terms, Banks statistically multiplex asset cash with liability deposits, using the asset cash to solve FLP consensus issues that arise when deposits are transferred between banks. It´s actually quite an elegant system.

There was no shortage of casual mass murder before the 20th century, not infrequently perpetrated by religious orders. The Mongol invasions in the 13th century, An Lushan rebellion in China in 750, Albigensian Crusade in the 12th century... it´s a long list I´m afraid - we are not a tame species.

That's what they said on the tannoy at least. They also reported he made it to hospital alive so hopefully all ended well.

It's not actually unknown to get altitude sickness in Denver, it is one of the things the city warns about - going skiing at higher altitudes as well of course - but poor health, and just the speed which you change to that altitude, even on a train, are issues.

Mine was over 12 hours late, as a passenger had to be airlifted off because of cardiac issues. Said passenger had been told not to fly, because of altitude issues, and hadn´t thought through the "mile high" aspect of transiting through Denver.

It is one of the most amazing train trips in the world, and tbh the article doesn´t really do it justice. The day the train spends slowly going up and down the rockies, are just incredible, the scenery is amazing, and you get to know other passengers and the conductors along the way. Had some great card games in the scenery car.

Isn´t this the entire plot of Heinlein's "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress" ?

Isn´t this also an issue with World War's 1 and 2? They both dented life expectancy fairly significantly, and that cohort is now aging out of the figures. If the rate of increase is being measured, then that would presumably play a small part?

Now add a language translation layer with X.75 :)

And yet 90% of all startups fail, which could also be seen as a indicating a certain level of incompetence in the private sector.

Consider perhaps that incompetence is distributed across the economy, and government and private industry share in that, with successful and unsuccessful projects as a consequence.

SpO2 monitoring is actually quite reliable.

If you get one of the watches or other devices that can do continuous SpO2 monitoring (blood oxygen) overnight, then it should be possible to detect any form of severe sleep apnea just by looking for significant drops in SpO2. The proper kits look for more than that of course, but SpO2 on its own is actually a pretty good indicator.

Hard to say. A well run bank with no bad debt on its books can absorb ~0.75% losses on its total lending in a year from income, without hitting any of the regulatory limits that would start to curtail lending. From the article, the US banking system is already above that, so it is in trouble.

From that point on, it's a case of how well the banks can push the can down the road, absorbing small percentages of bad debt every year from profits, versus being forced into insolvency by the FDIC. There is a lot of leeway in this, as long as the bank still has revenue. During much of the eighties the entire US banking system was technically insolvent, but the Fed essentially just papered over it. The Italian and Japanese banking systems managed this for decades - its only an actual loss when the bank recognises it after all, so you get the zombie bank phenomenon.

There is a much better understanding since 2008 of how not to crash a banking system, so I suspect this will continue to be managed out. But if any other sector goes down, or Trump gets elected (since his policies would blow up the entire financial system if actually enacted), then all bets would of course be off.

There's a claim over on Mastodon from Kevin Beaumont that the file is different on every customer he´s received the file from.

https://cyberplace.social/@GossiTheDog/112812454405913406

(scroll down a little)

Not entirely true. The company I worked for, major network equipment provider, had a customer user group that had self-organised to take it in turns to be the first customer to deploy major new software builds. It mostly worked well.

Root access is a separate issue, but user space access to sys level functions is something Apple has been slowly (or quickly on the IOS platform, where they are trying to stop apps snooping on each other) clamping down on for years.

The other quite reasonable hypothesis is that these are tales of the fairly rapid sea level rises that accompanied the end of the last ice age as the breaking of ice dams in the north released massive glacial floods into the North Atlantic and Pacific.

That's when it's useful to know how to crochet.

I would argue that it is the expected outcome of processes exhibiting: Latency... it takes a few years to actually kill their victims, and Exponential behaviour.. the most damage is done in the last few rounds of the expansion.

I for one welcome our new Polar Bear Overlords. (Hope the Russians don´t forget their rifles when they move in.)

This would be the same Microsoft that can´t explain to the US State Department how there was a golden key floating around that allowed their email to be hacked?

https://techcrunch.com/2023/07/17/microsoft-lost-keys-govern...

No, we had the lowest tier (research - funding is an issue) - but more seriously SME's will get trapped in this as well, and if I had $1m/yr I would definitely be running my own datacenter.

They offered to investigate if we paid for support, I counter-offered with not using the chat script in one of my courses as an example of AWS customer "support", and we ended up getting a full refund at least.

Hate to disillusion you - but exactly this happened to us on AWS a couple of years ago. 1 months research compute - no biggie, but no more AWS for us either.

It of course depends on how you cut and slice it, and also on the categorisation of black - but we are talking about approximately 2-3 billion people there if we include India, Indonesia, Africa and the rest of the world.

Can you point to a study that has comprehensively assessed that total population? Or just a few studies by Americans, who make their own racial biases, which from a cynical perspective can be boiled down to rampant and cruel exploitation over several centuries, abundantly clear in the articles concerned?

Immigrants across the world tend to be a slightly self selecting class of folks - why would black immigrants be any different on that front?

Lend lease was signed in March 1941 - Battle of Britain was Autumn 1940. It's hard to say how much the RN could have done, it's not that far across the channel, and it would have been potentially a very broad front.

Another fun read are Churchill's war diaries (all 6 volumes), where he reveals one of the first things he did was write a begging letter to Roosevelt to send 100,000 rifles to arm the home guard amongst others. Then as now, the UK was woefully ill prepared for war. They did manage to get copies of the "Keep Calm and Carry On" poster out though - it was printed to be displayed after a successful invasion.

I think the cash/property grab aspect was there from the beginning, and even in the 20´s you see it manifesting itself on a local level with intimidation etc. Klemperer's, I will bear witness, diaries from Dresden in that period are a fascinating read on the day to day impacts. Then as you say, it escalates culminating in Kristallnacht.

But I think they would never have succeeded if it hadn´t been for the 1929 US crash, and the subsequent withdrawal of loans from Germany by the New York banks in response, which pushed Germany over the edge for the second time.

As to how Germany wins WW2, or at least fights into a Cold War like stalemate. Germany continues the Battle of Britain for another month, rather than switching to bombing London, the RAF runs out of operational pilots (rather than newly trained pilots with 8 hours flying experience who have yet to fire their guns, they had plenty of those.). Or just that the men who made up the Polish and Czech squadrons that had the most kills in the Battle of Britain don´t make it across Europe to fight on for the RAF.

Britain falls, the London government retreats to Canada, Hitler can now turn his attention to Russia, without having to fight a two front war. They might still have lost that one, Russia is big, and would presumably have been backed up by the USA and the remains of the British Empire, but the atom program in Germany isn´t that far behind, and they do have the V3 by 1944, so it hopefully? ends up in some kind of Cold War by the 1950´s. (Essentially the storyline of several alternate histories out there. and the SS-GB series.)

It's an interesting question, and on the face of it, yes, the Nazi's probably would have won with the Jewish people on board. Similar arguments can be made about their invasion of Russia, given the support they would have received against Stalin without their accompanying genocide.

The big but in this, is whether they would have gotten there to begin with. Picking on the Jews was a huge cash/property grab, which was used to buy their support with general German population. Are the Nazis still the Nazis without the genocide? Do they even end up wanting to start a war?

5% nuclear vs 80% renewables on the chart linked. Really, the sane solution is the one that brings down the financial system (debt for existing oil plant and nuclear is substantial, and has decade long write down periods attached to it.)

Abilities to do this range widely with individuals.

Leaving that aside, there is a concept of linguistic distance from people´s first language, which makes it easier or harder to learn another language. French and English are very close to each other, as are Arabic and Hebrew, the Scandinavian languages are also all very close to each other (a little further from English), except for Finnish of course, which is kind of out there on its own. There is a nice recent paper looking at this in the academic context:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004873332...

Essentially how far your native tongue is from the language you are attempting to learn will drastically affect how long it takes to learn it for most people.

I can't find anything to support this online, but I do distinctly remember reading once that the cap on medical student places goes back to the founding of the NHS and negotiations between the government and the BMA. (One of the issues at the time was persuading doctors to join the plan, and they were afraid of a drop in income).

It's fairly trivial to analyse population vs. medical student places and see where the problem lies - there was an expansion in training places a few years ago, but it's a pipeline problem, and doesn't get fixed overnight. If somebody really wanted to fix things, there would probably need to be some kind of accelerated training of doctors and nurses for a few years.

...or a stalking horse by somebody in Microsoft's marketing division.

Those guys are estimated to have made $1 billion last year - have to think that buys some developer talent.