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muerdeme

359 karma · joined August 2, 2007

dickhall gmail.com

Austin, TX

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muerdeme··on Ask HN: Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?
Good call. My roommate and I are about to start an econ discussion site. Shoot me an email if you're interested in helping us get conversation started or just have any suggestions for us.
muerdeme··on Ask HN: Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?
I was thinking that, because the market created value, it couldn't be zero or negative sum. Now I realize that it's negative sum within the scope of the market itself, even though it may create value in a grander scheme of things.
muerdeme··on Ask HN: Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?
My understanding is the "speculators" create liquidity for the risk managers, thereby assuming their risk.

Why does the money leaking via commissions necessarily make the game sub-zero sum? Is it because we aren't looking at the big picture where everyone wins?

It seems like the risk managers must have a positive incentive to sell their risk on the marketplace instead of assuming it themselves. I.e. hedging another investment like someone else said already.

muerdeme··on Ask HN: Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?
Venture capital is not an example of this phenomenon. VCs accept high risk/variance in order to achieve high expected value, and it is not a negative sum game.
muerdeme··on Microsoft Research launches WorldWide Telescope, Scoble cries
http://scobleizer.com/2008/02/14/microsoft-researchers-make-...

This at least explains the reference. I certainly don't understand why he felt so overwhelmed by this of all things.

muerdeme··on Lies We Tell Kids
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONEYGU_7EqU
muerdeme··on In praise of dual-class stock structures for public companies
I don't like the idea of public companies pandering to so called shareholders. No one is putting a gun to anyone's head and asking them to buy a public company stock.

I understand your general sentiment, but this is silly. I don't know why you call it pandering when they have a vested stake in a company's financial future; the shareholders are owners, too.

Having a dual class structure will hopefully, help structure the right incentives for people running public companies and will make sure they don't do things just to boost stock prices or do things in the short term to make their quarterly numbers.

This depends more on management compensation than stock structure. If the CEO gets a huge bonus for the stock going up in the short term, he's more likely to do shady things to boost the price.

muerdeme··on Ask YC: What are the going rates for consulting gigs?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purchasing_power_parity
muerdeme··on Tax the Rich, Buffet says
I think the biggest thing that troubles me about our tax system is how much time is wasted trying to figure out how much we owe. Individuals and corporations alike have incentives to devote resources solely to minimizing their tax burden. I'd argue that a simplified tax scheme would cause a non-trivial increase in productivity that would be a boon to both the government and the people.
muerdeme··on Visualising your social networks
Yeah, but it got too expensive for them once they started letting us riffraff in.
muerdeme··on Singularity Objections
At least he was careful to use "might." They are soothsaying, after all.

Luckily, he won't be able to say "I told you so" when our universe runs out of memory.

muerdeme··on Sage: Can There be a Viable Free Open Source Alternative to Magma, Maple, Mathematica, and Matlab?
I meant that I would have used Sage if I had known about it. I'm certainly not advocating piracy - Matlab is a fantastic product and well worth the money. That part had more to do with the school's horrific IT program than anything else.
muerdeme··on Sage: Can There be a Viable Free Open Source Alternative to Magma, Maple, Mathematica, and Matlab?
This is pretty sweet. My roommates and I couldn't have made it through school without the pirated copies of Matlab floating around.
muerdeme··on The Value of Ideas
Pavlina's site feels like one big informercial. Is there a term yet for blogs like that?
muerdeme··on Scientists Create First Memristor: Missing Fourth Electronic Circuit Element
In fact, you can use any fab to make these things right now

Whoa. I didn't expect to hear that.

muerdeme··on Architecture astronauts take over
This is laughable to me. I've muttered more obscenities trying to deal with synchronization problems between computers than with anything else I can think of.

I want all of my media everywhere. Is that so wrong?

muerdeme··on One Guy Who Has Seen It All Doesn't Like What He Sees Now
It is, in fact, going to be a wonderful environment in which to take risk, because there aren't going to be any excesses.

I certainly agree with this, but I wonder if we'll actually see any more posts than usual that say "@#$% my job, I'm doing a startup."

muerdeme··on For the Brain, Cash Is Good, Status Is Better
This seems intuitive if you consider that social standing is generally more important for procreation.

He notes that this new insight into how the brain processes social standing may have important public health consequences, possibly even paving the way to new stress-reduction therapies.

The prospect of the government trying to reduce public stress by making sure everyone gets laid makes me laugh.

muerdeme··on 99designs: Need something designed (logo, ...)? Crowdsource it.
I think that a couple hours of design practice could be valuable to a designer regardless of whether he wins the cash.
muerdeme··on Is it time to lower America's drinking age?
For a long time at Rice University they, in not so certain terms, allowed underage students to drink in private parties on campus. While going there many of us thought this helped prevent drunk driving. Hearing about friends getting DWIs was very unusual, and generally limited to off campus students trying to drive themselves home when they shouldn't.

More recently, they've started to crack down on underage drinking, and now the police blotter fills a column in the campus newspaper with a series of "Driver arrested on suspicion of DWI." Hopefully this is a result of them cracking down on drinking and driving too, but I fear that to some extent it's because they are forcing the parties off campus.

muerdeme··on Ask YC: Where are the real web 2.0 apps?
Talk to your friends in other industries about what problems they have around the office.

Chances are that more companies are facing similar problems, and marketing a solution to a known problem is more effective than showing up on their doorstep and telling them their software sucks.

This thread made me realize that a problem my boss has been complaining is a good opportunity for a startup.

muerdeme··on Why There Aren't More Googles
This makes complete sense if you assume that a company that only needs a few hundred thousand to "figure things out" has an equal chance of becoming a billion dollar company as a company that is looking for a multi-million dollar investment that "is already taking off." That's evident to us inside, but your own description of the companies is enough to make a VC understandably skittish.

I understand your overall point, and I agree with it, but I don't think this assumption was clear the first time I read through the article.

I wholeheartedly agree that convincing VCs of this isn't the way to go, and that others are going to make a killing by stepping in. My main point is only that the VCs aren't being irrational.

muerdeme··on Why There Aren't More Googles
whatever value mba vc types did bring to the table, understanding of business management and such, is becoming less relevant with smaller startups and less money to be allocated.

I completely agree. The answer isn't to convince VCs to invest in companies they aren't suited to be messing around with. Something new needs to happen. PG pointing it out to outsiders should help the free market in the right direction...

muerdeme··on Why There Aren't More Googles
Instead of making one $2 million investment, make five $400k investments... If you're investing at a tenth the valuation, you only have to be a tenth as sure.

I don't agree with this. The investors have to be just as sure of the risk involved in each valuation as before in order to have the same expected value for the overall portfolio. However, investing $400K in 5 companies instead of $2M in a single company will reduce the variance of the return on investment.

I think it's a tradeoff for the VCs between variance in the portfolio and the amount of work involved in finding 5 times as many companies. Given the amount of funding they deal with, I can understand them leaning towards the companies looking for $2M rounds.

It seems obvious. But I've proposed to several VC firms that they set aside some money and designate one partner to make more, smaller bets, and they react as if I'd proposed the partners all get nose rings.

As I pointed out above, the partner has to be just as sure of each of the 5 bets as he would be of one. I'd react the same way if someone suggested I'd do better at my job if I worked 5 times as hard.

muerdeme··on Ordinary Skill in the Art: Jeffrey D. Ullman on Software Patents
The Supreme Court took a major step forward in 2007 by reducing the power of the teaching/suggestion/motivation test to prove non-obviousness. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KSR_v._Teleflex

I find it interesting that the reason for YCombinator's existence belies the fundamental problem with software patents: the ever-diminishing barriers to entry.

I understand the problem that programmers have with software patents, but I also still see a great deal of value in the patent system (though for full disclosure, patents pay my bills).

Many people point the finger at the pharmaceutical industry as the big, bad bully of the patent system. Personally, I use it as my token example that the patent system is a positive by comparing the barriers to entry in developing new drugs (finding a safe, effective formula and performing clinical trials) to the relative ease of copying drugs (I'm not a chemist, but I'm pretty sure this is easy).

In this case, the alternative to patent protection for drug companies would be to rely entirely on the government to supply money for drug research and manufacturing. However, this leaves us to the whims of politics to determine what we need instead of letting a free market work. I suspect that there are plenty of Viagra fans out there that won't complain about the high prices of seemingly unnecessary drugs. I'm by no means saying that the situation with drug companies is good or that they can stand on moral high ground, but I do believe (unquantifiable opinion) that they have been a net plus on society because of patent protection.

The last thing I've been thinking about is that there is a variable that we can consider. Patents grant the patentee 20 years of the right to exclude others from making and selling the claimed invention. The date is certainly arbitrary, and was set at a time when the markets reacted more slowly to innovation and the rate of the advancement of technology was slower. Could it been time to shorten the patent term in order to free up the market?

muerdeme··on Ask YC: Should a business method patent stop my startup?
Business methods were held as unpatentable subject matter until a Supreme Court ruling in 1998 ("State Street Bank"). Almost overnight, a flood of business method patent applications hit the PTO, but the examiners had no prior art to cite against the applications.

As a result, many absurdly broad business method patents were issued between 1998 and 2001, when the PTO started to tighten up on the issuances for business methods. For example, see U.S. Patent No. 5,715,314 ("Network sales system"), which probably covers every online shopping cart you've ever used...

I find it interesting that the timing of the decision coincided perfectly with beginning of the internet tech boom, so the overwhelming majority of business method patents are related to internet businesses, for better or worse.

muerdeme··on The Year in Ideas (2007)
I'm happy that the NYT has finally opened up, but I find the answers.com double-click "feature" incredibly irritating.

For full disclosure, I must admit that I highlight and click around computer text that I'm reading almost uncontrollably.

muerdeme··on The Future of the Recording Industry
Within the last couple of years, Clap Your Hands Say Yeah! has proven that the internet is a viable marketing environment without involving the radio juggernaut. Within the first two years of their existence, they had sold 90,000 copies of their debut album by dealing with distribution companies directly. However, CYHSY! is still an extreme phenomenon. I think the key to the future of music is making it more efficient for bands to follow this path. Myspace is cool for bands who don't have the time to make their own website and want to stream some free stuff to fans, but it really sucks for finding new music. Last.fm is a step in the right direction, but for whatever reason I don't enjoy using it for anything but the charts.
muerdeme··on My YC Startup Enters Private Beta
Will I be able to multi-table drafts? What's the official stance on bots? Just kidding. Halfway. This is a great idea and I hope you guys do well. Is there a friendly rivalry with Chris Fargis going on?
muerdeme··on How Facebook Makes Identity Theft Easier
Back when "TheFacebook" was limited to whatever universities were added that week, there was a guy at my school living on campus and pretending to be a student for at least 3 months. He didn't get caught until one of his friends got suspicious about him using someone else's e-mail address to get a Facebook account. The fact that he never seemed to do any actual work didn't help either.
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