92 karma · joined January 3, 2024
Can we start by striking down regulations that make having children more expensive? Zoning laws, environmental laws, development approval processes, and even building codes have significantly increase the cost of housing. Regulations made daycare prohibitively expensive, while also subsidizing that model over traditional childcare models. High costs are first order effects of these regulations, but there are plenty of second and third order cost increases as well.
For example, in 2005 Social Security had a 172B surplus, but the US government had a deficit of 318B. Social Security's 172B surplus was spent by the US government in the same year for government services on the people of 2005. The money was spent on voters, taxpayers, and citizens in 2005, but the liability was recorded against people who hadn't been born yet.
You've referred to a fiction, but reality is as I've stated. The US government loves creating fictions, but that doesn't mean we visit the Vietnam Police Action Memorial.
Another interesting aspect is that in an infinite grid, a spontaneous high voltage is going to exist somewhere at all times. It is probably very far away from you, but it's still weird.
But if the majority voting bloc is geriatric, then that does rather change the fundamentals.
Inflation from 2020-2024 was absurdly high. This was a universal hit to cost, and everyone felt it.
But outside of that recency bias, Americans have poor financial literacy. Americans have spending problems: credit card debt, car loans, and student loans come to mind. Each of these debt categories aren't inherently bad. Student loans are great if the degree has earning potential, but most Americans don't seek those degrees. Car loans aren't bad if it's a practical and affordable vehicles, but Americans like luxury SUVs. Credit cards aren't bad if you buy a washing machine to save on laundromat visits, but Americans like expensive vacations.
Americans also have problems with income, but that's even more complicated.
My point IS that you don't consider this to be a high level of consumption. To you it's normal. You've acclimated, and would again if the quality of life were 10x higher.
If people decide to build careers before having children, and DINKs acclimate to their income levels, then any child would feel like an unacceptable quality of life. You'll always feel like you're a rung below where you need to be, and this property would be independent of any particular scale.
Call it pedant's hypothesis. I've proposed it as an explanation. I can neither prove nor disprove it.
The quality of life that modern, affluent people consider unacceptably low for a family would be considered decadent by most people who ever lived anywhere.
New account created immediately after, responding to the same thread with the same sentiment but less extreme specific statements.
The full bench car seat is significantly safer than single seats. But it cannot be tested on the testing sleds in North America, and the wording of the regulations implicitly forbids multi-child seats anyway in many ways. Unfortunately, fixing the regulations is probably ~10 years and ~20 million dollars in lobbying.
The car seat related drop predates high daycare costs. In some places, high daycare costs aren't the primary concern: it's infant daycare waiting lists longer than 9 months.
Grandparents used to look after young children. Maybe we should incentivize that structure again? I'm open to other ideas.
Raising your child will run you ~300,000 USD, in addition to the massive opportunity cost from time investment. Given that social security is funded entirely through taxes in that tax year, it's a bit much to expect the children of 53% of the population to care for 100% of the elderly when the willfully childless 47% of the population did not put in more upfront in some other way. As birth rates drop, the ratio of workers to retirees will skew worse and worse, and the entire safety net will collapse progressively.
Alternatively, we can encourage and incentivize child rearing. Yes, that means that the willfully childfree will need to pony up resources for those who want children. What would you prefer: pay now for the continuity of the safety net, or the collapse of the safety net?
The proximate cause is social collapse, not economic. Maybe the ultimate collapse is economic, but it could again be social.
2. Those must be professionally installed
3. Those are pricey
4. Those are, quite by accident, illegal in North America
https://www.amazon.com/Graco-SlimFit3-Forward-Highback-Kunni...
Only in the last few years, and they require a full size sedan.
Today there are many narrow car seat options on the market, so 3 across seating is possible in full size sedans, but not compact cars. A European company makes a 3-across and 4-across car seat, but it's illegal in the US by accident.
Ironically, this is much _faster_ for small sets. Sometimes the error is intentional, because the programmer believes that all inputs will be small. IME, those programmers were wrong, but that's the inverse of survival bias.