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metaphor

4,146 karma · joined September 7, 2015

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metaphor··on Amazon R&D spending is more than that of all companies and government of France
> I suspect its just a tax break related policy

1. What publicly-traded companies report to investors and what they report to the IRS are more different than you might initially suspect.

2. This $73.2B figure was pulled directly from their 2022 10-K filing[1] under an ops expense line item labeled technology and content, which includes R&D and then some. The devil in the details is buried in a footnote on p. 26:

>> Technology and content costs include payroll and related expenses for employees involved in the research and development of new and existing products and services, development, design, and maintenance of our stores, curation and display of products and services made available in our online stores, and infrastructure costs. Infrastructure costs include servers, networking equipment, and data center related depreciation and amortization, rent, utilities, and other expenses necessary to support AWS and other Amazon businesses.

At face value, to handwave this figure as just R&D and purport that it's directly comparable to other publicly-traded companies who report disaggregated research and development strikes me as somewhere between shotgun analysis and hoodwinking.

[1] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872423...

metaphor··on A site that tracks the price of a Big Mac in every US McDonald's
> I understand Wawa stations in the eastern U.S. are known for their food; can anyone here comment?

The only thing that Wawa food has going for it is that it's prepared hot at any hour; the quality of the food itself is quite mediocre.

Different story for Buc-ee's, which I thought was of exceptional quality and value.

metaphor··on A site that tracks the price of a Big Mac in every US McDonald's
On a related note, an equivalent site[1] for select Taco Bell products.

[1] https://taconomical.com/

metaphor··on Patriot Missile Software Problem
The GAO report[1] referenced in the lecture notes.

[1] https://www.gao.gov/assets/imtec-92-26.pdf

metaphor··on 50 Algorithms Every Programmer Should Know (Second Edition)
CLRS remains canon.
metaphor··on Rolex fined $100M for preventing its watches being sold online
> This is not the 90s or 80s anymore when dropping $10k on a watch was a big move.

To be fair, you're disconnected from economic reality if you think dropping $10k on a watch today isn't a big financial move.

metaphor··on 3M knew its chemicals were harmful decades ago, but didn't tell the public
> In China, there was a case of baby formula execs knowingly selling product that was harmful and led to tens of thousands of hospitalizations and a handful of deaths. They were executed.

To be sure, a dairy farmer (Zhang Yujun) and milk salesman (Geng Jinping) were executed[1]. At the highest corporate levels, Sanlu general manager (Tian Wenhua) initially got life in prison...except she'll be released next year after 15 years.

No executives were executed in this scandal.

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/nov/24/china-executes...

metaphor··on JEDEDC publishes new CAMM2 memory module standard
This article[1] may be contextually useful.

[1] https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/ram/new-incredibl...

metaphor··on Price of tacos and more at every Taco Bell across the US
Recently mindblown that a single crunchy taco at a local Taco Bell costs $2.19 a pop. Wondered if anyone was using Taco Bell prices as inflation proxy similar to the Big Mac, which led to stumbling upon this.
metaphor··on Tesla workers report explosions, concussions and robot injuries at Texas factory
The parent's remark suggests Tesla management was responsible and at fault; OSHA's disposition begged to differ, and that part was conveniently omitted from context.
metaphor··on Tesla workers report explosions, concussions and robot injuries at Texas factory
You left out the kicker:

> OSHA inspected this incident and fined the contractors.

metaphor··on Italy to seize $835M from Airbnb in tax evasion inquiry
Italian citizens are quite capable of tax evasion without the aid of Web 3.0 services; it's apparently a "cultural" thing[1]:

> The results show that the propensity to evade taxes is greater among households whose heads have low levels of education and income, are elderly and are resident in the South. Over time, the propensity to evade taxes has been growing on average, especially in the North, which has reduced the gap compared with the South, and among young people under 30 years old. The paper also shows a link between the propensity for tax evasion and some indicators of actual evasion, such as the use of cash and the under-reporting behaviour in the Survey of Household Income and Wealth (SHIW) conducted by the Bank of Italy, confirming the association between cultural elements and evasion behaviour.

[1] https://doi.org/10.32057/0.QEF.2021.607

metaphor··on SEC Charges SolarWinds and CISO with Fraud, Internal Control Failures
This.

With respect to SolarWinds, we need only defer to their proxy statement to discover who the real shotcalling directors[1] and executives[2] are.

[1] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1739942/000173994223...

[2] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1739942/000173994223...

metaphor··on People with autism less likely to succumb to bystander effect, research finds
This struck me as so absurdly anti-social with a pinch of blatant dismissal for why certain rules in public spaces exist to begin with that it reads like you're intentionally trolling the parent in bad faith.

You know what also doesn't care about the rules of ordered society and the potentially deadly consequences of breaking them? Animals.

Disagree? Only a fool spitting into the wind would permit me to unleash my seemingly subservient Dobermann into the "reality" of instinct for just a minute while we had that hot debate in a public park. I care about its life---and the lives of peaceful strangers there to also enjoy the public space, and the lives of birds making a pitstop on a long migratory journey, and the lives of squirrels that call a resident tree home, and even your life when you decide to raise your voice in a way that may or may not be perceived as threatening---to recognize the unabashed arrogance of doing so.

That's the empathy perspective you're missing.

metaphor··on On Bus Arbitration on the Unibus and QBUS (2017)
I understand it to be a matter of pragmatism over formalism, i.e. given an appropriate system, if you could probabilistically kick the can so far down the road that the chances of system failure become overwhelmingly dominated by factors other than metastability, is it still a real problem?

I ask with an inpert mindset recognizing who you are.

metaphor··on On Bus Arbitration on the Unibus and QBUS (2017)
It seems the author started with a notional combinational subcircuit presumably operating in a single clock domain, then summarily unloaded a foot shotgun by deciding an initial behavioral fix was to infer a flip flop clocked by an input signal.

At face value, this:

  always @(posedge RDMGI, posedge RINIT, posedge cycle_finished) begin
  ...
  assign TDMGO = RDMGI & ~won_arbitration;
...was just asking for metastability in that it transformed the subcircuit into a clock domain crossing problem. Recognizing this, it makes sense that the sol'n[1] was to dual flop synchronize the async RDMGI input.

[1] http://www.froghouse.org/~dab/papers/bus-arbitration/grant4....

metaphor··on Global Tax Evasion Report 2024 [pdf]
The 2016 epoch annotated in Figure 1 and language of Finding #1 are curious.

+/- 1 year circa that time, there was also the Swiss Leaks...and Panama Papers...and Bahamas Papers...and Paradise Papers.

Perhaps there's an argument in support of the prevailing steady state, but color me unconvinced that "the automatic exchange of bank information" was directly responsible for the transient response.

metaphor··on Excel will allow certain auto data conversions to be turned off
> How is what you want different from pressing delete?

Compact and laptop keyboards; sometimes excluded, often poorly/inconsistently sized/positioned.

There's a much better chance of Ctrl+Backspace being a consistent movement independent of keyboard layout, so I can appreciate where the parent is coming from.

metaphor··on Free IRS-run tax filing pilot to be available in 13 states
> AZ, CA, FL, TX, NY alone gets you to about 120m people.

Not quite; ~71.8 million constrained to just individual income tax filings based on 2022 stats[1]. Excludes estate, corps, gift, tax-exempt orgs and excise, but includes both paper and electronic filings.

  AZ    4,197,918
  CA   23,209,479
  FL   14,563,047
  TX   16,750,330
  NY   13,115,425
  ---------------
       71,836,199
  ===============
  US  204,434,236
Surely, only a subset will qualify.

[1] https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-state-data-fy-2...

metaphor··on Comcast squeezing 2Gbps internet speeds through decades-old coaxial cables
First off, the article is about Comcast and what they're pushing on largely existing infra, while my criticism was directed towards a remark which struck me as uncritically dismissing the value prop of deployed tech just because it may make business sense to a much smaller private company with dramatically different capital requirements operating over a much smaller area in a completely different country; your entire remark is unconstructive and entirely irrelevant in this context.

To humor your rhetorical question on why size matters: When you're a publicly traded company operating in 40 states of varying population densities with over $55 billion in P&E assets and $93 billion in long-term debt (whose annual interest servicing requirement alone would consume all of Virgin Media O2 Fixed-Line revenue) on balance sheet[1] predominantly structured around copper infra as a legacy broadcast telecom with 60 years of history, you might start exercising critical restraint as an entitled consumer who thinks scrapping decades of capex investment for the latest shiny can just magically happen at the flip of some imaginary political switch and without substantial burden to the public in which it was intended to serve. Size matters because sustainably maintaining P&E depreciation while servicing a proverbial fuck ton of debt are real business expenses accountable to a market with waffling sentiments.

Comcast already has ~186k employees on payroll today, ~17% of which are in the UK/EU. Did you even give an ounce of consideration to how those existing jobs would be impacted in the face of imminent disruption?

Do you really think TAM will substantially increase just because FTTH is being offered at a fundamentally much higher minimum entry price for basic service? The FCC is motioning towards broadband for everyone, not just the latest bleeding-edge-nice-to-have-shiny for those with excess disposable income who can afford it.

Who do you think will really be paying the billions in capex debt for new shiny to replace that which still has meaningful life ahead of it just to stay afloat? You're fully entitled to be an irrational consumer who trades in a perfectly operable yet underwater vehicle to finance a new EV at high-as-a-kite interest rates, but I'd expect a lot more sustainability/value common sense from telecom executives with real skin in the game.

Building the required infra on debt is one thing, operating and maintaining it an entirely different beast; read Robichaux on Malone for a historical clue. Small ISPs are already crying a river[2] over BEAD grant capital accessibility because for any proposed project requiring $X to build out, of which 75% will be covered by federal grant dollars, just demonstrating the capacity to have 46% skin in the game is apparently too arduous. As much as I'd like to see small players step in to meaningfully challenge large incumbents, what I really don't want are hundreds of flake LLCs grifting the Treasury while pretending to deliver when the grass is green then conveniently jumping ship just when the going gets tough. As a consumer, real world viability as a sustainable business is just as important as the basic service to be provided.

Furthermore, when the FCC needs to step in and drop the hammer on the multitude of clowns who will try and inevitably fail, it'll be us taxpayers paying those administrative costs, further setting the stage for Comcast et al to acquire shiny assets and regain abandoned market share at steep clearing discount.

[1] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166691/000116669123...

[2] https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/09/big-isps-will-do...

metaphor··on Comcast squeezing 2Gbps internet speeds through decades-old coaxial cables
> Tbh using DOCSIS4.0 is probably a mistake and a dead end technology. Virgin Media in the UK said the cost of upgrading to 4.0 from their 3.1 network was only half that of actually laying full fibre to all their covered premises, so they are instead rolling out FTTH everywhere instead.

Let's put this into proper perspective.

The state of Texas alone is ~2.8x larger than the entire UK.

Comcast FY22 Residential Broadband generated ~5x more revenue (spot FX; about the same circa end of CY22) and serves ~5x more customers [1; pp. 42-43] than all of Virgin Media O2 Fixed-Line over the same period [2; pp. 5-6].

To think what might make infra capex business sense for Virgin Media in the UK would be asymptotically transferable to Comcast in the US as a broadcast telecom with 6 decades of history and at the prevailing cost of capital strikes me as quite naive.

[1] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166691/000116669123...

[2] https://news.virginmediao2.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/...

metaphor··on Comcast squeezing 2Gbps internet speeds through decades-old coaxial cables
How'd you figure?

DOCSIS 4.0 spec[1] was first issued circa Aug 2019 and has undergone 6-10 revisions since.

[1] https://www.cablelabs.com/specifications/search?currentPage=...

metaphor··on The Price-Fixing Economy
You quoted Smith Chapter X Part II, whose argument in context is that the pressure of competition quickly kills attempts at collusion, while surviving conspiracies are enabled by regulation.

The paper contrasts commodities from all other concentrated markets; whereas the former is expected to have an impulse transient response whose price discovery quickly settles by way of competitive forces consistent with Smith, the latter has a salient capacity as price maker to play games.

Megacorps and multi-nationals weren't exactly meta in the 18th century. Exponential tech complexity, sector consolidation, global economies of scale, regulatory capture, the speed of information and capacity of market participants to meaningfully act are just a few modern barriers to entry in concentrated markets suppressing the notional competition that Smith leans heavily into.

metaphor··on The Price-Fixing Economy
Stale dogma. Times change and Smith didn't live in the Information Age. See this paper[1] for a deeper perspective on relevant market dynamics.

[1] https://scholarworks.umass.edu/econ_workingpaper/343/

metaphor··on USB inventor explains why the connector was not designed to be reversible (2019)
> I always thought a round ringed TRS style plug like headphones use would have been great. No way to orient it incorrectly.

Now consider the forward-looking bandwidth implications with that class of physical interconnect.

metaphor··on How Games Used to Look: Why Retro Gaming on a CRT Looks Different [video]

  s/a decade/two decades/
metaphor··on Lumber prices down 11% YoY
The context of my remark was in response to how "money being printed left and right..." --> "...end up in the hands of regular people doing renovation or home builds?"

Just because "lots of people not being able to go to their job and get paid" doesn't mean all or even most were in the same situation; the numbers[1] tell a different story, and that doesn't even begin to account for the aggregate impact of nationwide loan pauses, or the irrational exuberance in equity/crypto markets at the time.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=19GH4

metaphor··on Lumber prices down 11% YoY
$2.50/box today relative to $2.00/box in 2019 represents +25% inflation...so nowhere near purported pre-COVID levels.

CPI less food and energy[1] over the same period increased +17.3%...so currently priced worse than nominal inflation.

Of course, this baseline reference assumes shrinkflation hasn't impacted your "box" unit.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=19FTW

metaphor··on Lumber prices down 11% YoY
Were you asleep[1] the entire time? And that's just what Average Joe was pocketing.

[1] https://www.pandemicoversight.gov/news/articles/update-three...

metaphor··on Dish dealt space-debris fine for misparking satellite
> As that is reportedly going to cause a noticable increase in their future launch insurance costs.

Interesting speculation...except there's this eyebrow raising P&E footnote buried in their 10-K filing[1; p. F-33]:

>> We generally do not carry commercial launch or in-orbit insurance on any of the satellites that we own and therefore, we will bear the risk associated with any uninsured launch or in-orbit satellite failures.

[1] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1001082/000155837023...

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