mNovak

Is there an elegant term to describe a severely overburdened metaphor? I'm getting lost in the thick bark of an intertwined canopy root system here..

Grammarly certainly comes to mind, for being essentially a free feature of most chat AIs now.

Interestingly this time around I could see the 'fire' affecting mid-large corporations (or at least some divisions of them) if they don't adapt. Adobe, being heavily focused on graphic design seems like it could be under pressure. Low-end consulting / outsourcing is largely doing the same work AI is good at. Similarly with technical gig-work (like Upwork).

People don't seem to realize that Oracle is deep in the AI play, taking on a bunch of debt to make speculative leases and buildout of datacenters to rent to other players.

It's been great for them so far, but if there's an AI winter, Oracle will be the first to freeze.

Is there a video clip of the simulation anywhere? Would be interested to see it

So would a $300B Anthropic get included in the SP500?

Of all the players, I'd argue Google certainly knows how to give away a product for free and still make money.

The local open source argument doesn't hold water for me -- why does anyone buy Windows, Dropbox, etc when there's free alternatives?

Nice article; far from bullet-proof, but it brings up some interesting points. HN comments are vicious on the topic of AI non-bubbles.

As I recall, it doesn't incorporate the historic price of stocks. So if I bought 1 share of Nvidia for $10 10 years ago, it'd say I had a net worth of $180 then, not $10 (as it uses today's stock price).

Broad estimates I'm seeing on the cost of a 1GW AI datacenter are $30-60B. So by your own revenue projection, you could see why people are thinking it looks like a pretty good investment.

Note that if we're including GPU prices in the top-line capex, the margin on that $70-150B is very healthy. From above, at 0.4J/T, I'm getting 9MT/kWh, or about $0.01/MT in electricity cost at $0.1/kWh. So if you can sell those MT for $1-5, you're printing money.

My interpretation of that moment was that they had already decided to give away protein sequences as charity, it was just a decision of all as a bundle vs fielding individual requests (a 'service').

Still great of them to do, and as can be seen it's worth it as a marketing move.

I think most people (namely high school seniors) go to college for neither. They go because that was the expectation, and was assumed to be at least approximately productive path.

While arguably that's indirectly 'for the piece of paper', I'd argue the pleasant experience is a factor too, even if not quoted as such. i.e. if it was a purely rational, economic choice (my interpretation of going to college just for the degree) we'd see higher enrollment in high-ROI majors.

The chatGPT endorsement is /chefs kiss/

Issue was only with add account, so continuing to try to onboard myself.

Is there more detailed documentation available? A few troubles I've run into:

- Having trouble with stock splits -- Schwab simply reports the added shares, not the split ratio, so I can't do it via csv import

- Separate but probably related, if I add some shares back in 2022 (e.g. SWPPX, a SP500 index), the "performance" shows essentially immediate -90% return. I suspect this is also related to splits; possibly Yahoo finance retroactively applies the future split quantity on historic quotes. Edit: figured this out, I'm responsible for entering any splits across the history, it seems

- How do you designate the counter-account for transfer-in / transfer-out transactions?

- Schwab does some funny business with date strings occasionally ("03/16/2022 as of 03/15/2022"); not your problem per se, but interpreting either presented date would be better than quietly defaulting to 1970

- In the activities tab, I can only reverse date order in list view, but not grid view

- As a wishlist item.. default csv import settings for major brokerages would be great, considering this is in principle how you're expecting users to repeatedly interact with the software

- Maybe I'm missing it, but is there a simple way to see the list of accounts you've created? This would seem like a very basic feature. Edit: okay, I see them in dashboard, but can't add them there. Would seem like an appropriate nav column entry.

I don't mind dumping in a few csv every month to update, but having to manually fix my csvs before upload adds a lot of effort.

I still use GNUcash [1]. Only drawback is comparatively poor handling of equities, with no good way to view historic portfolio value / net worth. Great for general purpose accounting though.

[1] https://www.gnucash.org/

Looks really cool, very much appreciate making it free/select price.

Just downloaded it on Windows 10, but unfortunately the modals (add account etc) aren't scrollable and cutoff the bottom of my screen, making them pretty much unusable (can't submit!)

Does the refrigerator magnet system prompt leak [1] still work?

[1] https://minimaxir.com/2025/11/nano-banana-prompts/#hello-nan....

Am I misreading, or does SPXT still hold >20% GOOG, TSLA, META, AMZN?

"Information technology" apparently just means Microsoft and Apple.

Really seems like the reason logarithmic scales were invented..

Maybe you ignore it, but Google has stated in the past that click-through rates with AI overviews are way down. To me, that implies the 'user' read the summary and got what they needed, such that they didn't feel the need to dig into a further site (ignoring whether that's a good thing or not).

I'd be comfortable calling a 'user' anyone who clicked to expand the little summary. Not sure what else you'd call them.

Site looks nice, best of luck!

I'd be curious just to learn more about who's the typical buyer of brick and mortar local businesses -- not something I've ever thought about

I got a set of 25ml Erlenmeyer flasks to use as shot glasses. Also fun, and with the bonus feature that if you can't pour into the very narrow neck, you probably don't need a shot.

As an aside, I have a slightly masochistic desire to implement an online-playable version of Campaign for North Africa. It bothers me that they can credibly claim there is no documented case of someone finishing the game.

My understanding is no, they are collecting a cache of documents from the training set, then after pre-training prompt about those topics. A separate verifier is given both the relevant source documents and generated response, and tasked with checking for conflicts in factuality.

They describe using Qwen 32B as the verifier, and the model under training is Qwen 8B. So in fact the verifier is beefier than the trainee model, though it's unclear if that has to be the case as you scale up.

And frankly a Kryptos solution is much more interesting than some arbitrary CIA secret!

Tangentially related to the question of legality of prose describing otherwise illegal instructions, I'm reminded of the epic DeCSS haiku [1]. (CSS here being 90's era DVD DRM).

[1] https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~dst/DeCSS/Gallery/decss-haiku.txt

A lot of fair criticisms of the splash page here. But, I'll say the slide deck has a nice comprehensive review of research headlines over the year, at least.

The article is implying throughout that these two things are mutually exclusive, and while that makes some intuitive sense (only so much money to invest after all), the last chart [1] doesn't give any indication that data center investment comes at the expense of industrial investment.

[1] "Private sector spending on equipment, adjusted for inflation"

* Oracle sinks 7%, after having jumped 36% earlier in September.

I figure these GPUs are typically around 1kW (unclear if 6GW is including overhead like cooling, which might double(?) the power), so in the range of 3-6M GPUs.

If these are somewhere in the range of $10-30k (who knows what current or future models are contemplated), that's $30-180B. So clearly the low end doesn't make sense for the 'rebate', but at the high end a ~17% discount doesn't seem unreasonable.