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lxm

140,367 karma · joined July 3, 2007

Engineer in Southern California.
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lxm··on Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]
They did

> Germany sets the gas levy that would allow Uniper and its rivals to pass on 90% of spiralling gas prices to customers.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/how-russian-gas-cris...

lxm··on Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]
Was there an alternative to Uniper’s nationalization?

It was insolvent and forced into fixed price deliveries that it had to procure through suddenly expensive spot market.

lxm··on The Open Buddhist University
"All of Buddhism is a footnote to zazen". (Kodo Sawaki)
lxm··on Sony PlayStation 2 Development Kit (2020)
The unveiling “brief presentation” is probably the best keynote ever https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ExaAYIKsDBI&pp=ygUIU29ueSAyOTk...
lxm··on Sony PlayStation 2 Development Kit (2020)
https://www.acquired.fm/episodes/sony

and the book “Console Wars”. This is probably the most dramatic betrayal story you can get in business history.

lxm··on America’s $800B climate splurge is feeding a new lobbying ecosystem
It's reported when the scale is grand, like https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-01-19/jose-hui...
lxm··on Overnight 'hotel train' could link San Francisco and Los Angeles
In Japan a central station is within a hub of business and retail activity. In LA the central station is next to county jail and Skid Row. There’s additional expense (probably on both ends for SF-LA trip) that’s negligible in Japan to get to the final destination within the city.
lxm··on Why Is the Federal Reserve Abetting a Drain of Deposits from Banks?
Because along with QT and interest rates it's a tool in their inflation toolbox.
lxm··on California to spend $100M of state's Medicaid money per year on housing
Considering how geographically concentrated homelessness tends to be in large cities, wouldn't it be more cost-efficient for the state to run its own clinic or two in each major city?
lxm··on California to spend $100M of state's Medicaid money per year on housing
"Non-profit" just encourages padding expenses along the way.

City of LA had access to government-owned land, fairly large pool of labor and probably some bulk discounts on building materials. Yet after you add consultants, construction unions and other well-connected entities jumping onto the gravy train, average unit ended up above $600k, way above an average "for-profit" luxury condo in LA

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-23/la-paying...

lxm··on Home Prices Fell in February for First Time in 11 Years
> Almost never.

Apartment rents fall as new supply hits market https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34976493

lxm··on Home Prices Fell in February for First Time in 11 Years
Agree with the sentiment, not sure about the timing.

Apartment REITs are already 30%ish below their 52w highs https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RESI:NYSEARCA?window=1Y... so it seems like the market has anticipated that move and priced their yields in line with risk-free interest one can get on Treasuries.

lxm··on Banks as collateral damage in a class war
"too much debt" for Person A is "using leverage wisely" for Person B.

With rates approaching zero it was rational to load up on second mortgages, driving up the totality of the debt. If you managed to lock in a sub-3% loan few years back, it's irrational to accelerate repayment.

lxm··on More students are turning away from college and toward apprenticeships
4. An amalgamation of sports teams for talented athletes to shop their skills to professional sports scouts.
lxm··on Flight attendants want to ban lap-babies
> But driving is much more dangerous than air travel.

This was probably valid back when car seats were rudimentary, but nowadays it seems like a strapped baby in a properly installed car seat is quite safe?

lxm··on Facebook confirms it will drop news sharing in Canada under bill C-18
Would a robots.txt-equivalent solution satisfy both parties?

Media orgs could ban the indexing of their pages by specific scrapers, and users on those social networks would just see a raw URL, not a preview with headline+image+blurb?

lxm··on Joint statement by the Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC
They had too much cash in 2020 and 2021.

They suddenly needed cash in 2023, but the deposit train had run dry due to the general slowdown among their customer base, at which point they were forced into selling the assets they acquired in 2020-2021 and locking those losses.

Had they attracted enough new deposits, they could've let their long-dated portfolio run its course. Maybe even sell parts of it a few years from now if the rates went back to 0% territory, making those long-term bonds attractive again.

They weren't buying toxic assets or anything. Chase, BofA and Wells Fargo own long-term debt as well, just not to the extent SVB did.

lxm··on Joint statement by the Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC
In finance there's a lot of employee transition right after bonuses are dished out, and incidentally SVB just delivered theirs

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/11/silicon-valley-bank-employee...

lxm··on Joint statement by the Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC
Yeah, ironically had SVB had a strong consumer brand, they probably could've boosted their cash reserves by offering higher-yelding CDs to general public.
lxm··on Joint statement by the Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC
Yeah, but what are the specific cash amounts we are talking about?

Such extreme exposure to interest rate risk would've blown up in some other ways - say, a large client processing a routine payroll, executing stock buyback, or investing in an entity that banks elsewhere.

lxm··on SVB lobbied the government to relax some Dodd-Frank provisions
The requirement to mark-to-market and undergo liquidity tests I think would’ve flagged the interest rate exposure back when SVB started on this path.

> Calculating the amount of a highly liquid asset. In calculating the amount of a highly liquid asset included in the liquidity buffer, the bank holding company must discount the fair market value of the asset to reflect any credit risk and market price volatility of the asset.

lxm··on $3.3B of the ~$40 billion of USDC reserves remain at SVB
Matt Levine’s newsletter today assumes FDIC will forcefully step in to avoid repercussions down the road

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-03-10/startu...

> One obvious question is: If you are “another, healthy bank” working through this weekend to buy SVB and assume its deposits, how much would you pay for the assets, which were worth $212 billion in December? 8 I am pretty sure the answer is higher than $8 billion, the amount of insured deposits: The FDIC will not be on the hook for the insured deposits. The $15 billion of FHLB advances are also quite senior and will presumably be no problem to pay back.

> I would also guess — not investing or banking advice! — that the answer will also turn out to be higher than $188 billion, which is the total amount of deposits plus FHLB advances. I say this not because I have done a detailed analysis of SVB’s assets but because it seems bad for the FDIC to wind up a big high-profile bank in a way that causes significant losses for depositors, including uninsured depositors. There was a run on SVB in part because there hasn’t been a big bank run in a while, and people — venture capitalists, startups — were naturally worried that they might lose their deposits if their bank failed. Then the bank failed.

> If it turns out to be true that they lose their deposits, there could be more bank runs

lxm··on Rotating Sandwiches – That's It
What's the timeline for iOS/Android native apps?
lxm··on Hundreds of changes made to latest editions of Roald Dahl's books
This just seems to relate to school libraries, but the books presumably would be available through public libraries or Amazon? School libraries by design have a pretty limited selection, generally confined to the topics covered by the curriculum.

Or am I wrong in understanding the nature of the ban?

lxm··on Paramount to Raise Paramount+ Prices as It Combines with Showtime
Family Guy had a futuristic episode with a gag ad “Watch Family Guy on Fox, now owned by Disney, now owned by Netflix, now owned by Pornhub”.
lxm··on Errors for the Twilio Rest API impacting multiple services
In retrospect, could layoffs be less drastic if the company moved to a lower cost of living area?

Vs placing an adamant bet on paying SF rent, SF salaries and urging others to do the same? https://www.sfgate.com/local/article/Twilio-CEO-wants-tech-c...

lxm··on To Increase Equity, School Districts Eliminate Honors Classes
Also anecdotally, but out of friends that moved (to FL and SC) none are impressed with the local school districts. Seems like it's either homeschooling or private school route for them. To be fair, tuition at private schools is way more affordable compared to CA.
lxm··on Airbnb nightly rates shot up 36% in 3 years
I have used both VRBO amd AirBnB for many years now.

When COVID-19 travel bans proliferated in early 2020, AirBnB proactively refunded my money for a reservation that was nominally no longer cancellable.

VRBO told me to reach out to the host, which turned out to be this apartment rental agency that would ghost my emails for a few days, then offer future credit, then told me to get in line as they have many customers, and eventually processed the refund 3 months or so down the road.

Needless to say, I no longer use VRBO.

lxm··on For some electric vehicle owners, recharging now more costly than filling up
Every Tesla vehicle sold up until 2016 had free supercharging for life (ask me how I know). They've floated the perk again for some Model 3 configurations upon the initial release.

One is required to have a valid credit card on their Tesla app (even if supercharging is free, idle fees are not) and it's tied to the VIN of the vehicle.

lxm··on To ease the housing crunch, more places end single-family zoning
There's a perception of "renter mentality" being synonymous with indifference and lack of personal investment into the neighborhoods. E.g. ownership communities tend to have cleaner streets, less crime and fewer annoyances (like loud parties or improper parking) due to owners acting upon such infractions faster.
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