learnstats2

Having worked in politics, where Hanlon's Razor is often used to excuse malice, I'd suggest it is not valid.

People have reasons for acting incompetently - often those reasons are because the system is set up to enable that, in one way or another.

And it's most often the case that system has been set up intentionally in that way (or has been manipulated to get that outcome) - there's malice in the organisational big picture.

The effect is the same and the cause is the same as well.

It's also a reminder that your mobile's current privacy settings don't matter.

If Instagram/Facebook/Whatsapp have ever had access to your contacts - even inadvertently - you essentially can't undo this.

Those were most probably Galt Octons, which are still sold today.

Weird how the article doesn't mention those, while it talks about being ripped off...

Yes - "implicit assocation tests" for cognitive bias work on exactly this principle: identifying when 'male' follows the same process as 'good'.

It's probable that Esperanto speakers speak more clearly because: a) that's the purpose of speaking the language, and, b) there are few conversations between two fully fluent speakers; even if you are fluent, you can't expect your conversation partner to be.

Spanish does have phonetic spelling, but is also likely to have more elision in every-day speech.

Native speakers know and use what is understood without needing to be said, from non-verbal cues.

I don't see any young people choosing to learn a language which has such problems with gender - when a learner has to deal with this in the first lesson.

Assuming male as the default seems to me to be increasingly evolving out of natural languages. Agreeing a reform among Esperanto-speakers seems impossible, given that many are attached to its historical roots.

An extension that is agreed and then revoked would completely ruin the plans of almost any project. It is unusually being cut short.

"Don't create a paper trail" shouldn't be a thing you demand of employees if you have "Don't be evil" as a motto.

They appear to be mutually incompatible.

>There's no way you don't block a newspaper

This explains why individual billionaires bought all the newspapers.

The point is to illustrate that this article is serving an anti-China narrative, which has been motivated over several years and decades by right-wing politicians looking for a palatable enemy to unite behind (replacing Russia in this role)

China can and does do bad things, but why do we read about that more often and with more emphasis than Western countries doing bad things?

When is it called a "prison" and when is it called a "concentration camp"?

Both is fine, but given the choice I'd prefer to watch a member of the surgical team write with a sharpie on my legs.

Having experienced Dutch segregated bike lanes, I'm not sure how you can argue against these.

The key though, is to treat bicycles as a priority, rather than as an afterthought. One important provision in Dutch law is that if a car driver crashes into a cyclist, it is assumed that the car driver has been negligent.

Yes, exactly... 64% of the time, in well-sampled professional surgical settings, the checklist was not even completed?

Is there an independent reference for this?

In my experience, checklists almost always silently fail.

[Edited to add: 2015 column in Nature suggests studies giving positive results to checklists don't replicate: https://www.nature.com/news/hospital-checklists-are-meant-to... ]

I would rather surgical teams had industry-standard automated tracking technology with (for example) bar codes and radio frequency tags, than a checklist.

You are critiquing your own question, which I was answering directly.

What I said also applies to any other metric, including (for example) income generation.

Yes, it does. It is widely thought to be true and certainly matches my experience at statistical significance.

I actually disagree with this - if candidates are expected to hold financial liability for the political claims of their party, then the only people who will dare to stand will be billionaires.

It doesn't strike me that these e-mails are making anyone popular?

>I would expect a huge mass of simple RNA based life forms simpler than prokaryotes.

There is such a mass: viruses. As such, we know that cellular life has evolved multiple mechanisms to efficiently kill external RNA.

If cellular life can efficiently outcompete non-cellular life for resources (and perhaps for RNA itself), then this outcome is not unreasonable at all.

Counter-example: There are (far) more Homo sapiens on the planet than other primates in total.

I'm doubtful that you would get additional compensation in your hypothetical example.

You're not worse off if you didn't spend anything and you are half-way towards your goal of having a house.

It is absolutely standard that everyone doing office work outside of high-tech jobs uses Excel for data handling.

It's not surprising that this reaches into government.

Even if your canonical database is done properly, there will be a clash here as soon as you share (or give anyone the ability to generate) CSV files that are too large for Excel.

OK, but in that case you're at (potentially much) greater risk than blackmail.

Why is blackmail the risk that people on this page are going to, then, is my question. If you're willing to make a public statement then blackmail is lower risk, not higher risk.

I'm not sure why being on Grindr is being seen here as a blackmail risk.

If you are visible on Grindr, you have made a kind of public testimony.

So, you have reduced your blackmail risk - since you're already at least somewhat prepared for this information to be public.

I suspect this is as much about profiling users (who will normally predict the outcome they subconsciously favour) than it is about effective predictions.

People value money differently - so any prediction market with real money is just a play money market for rich people.

That doesn't give it better predictive powers - and maybe the opposite.

Uprating people with a historical record of accuracy is likely to be at least better than wealth as a marker.

If you guess it's non-zero, can you identify one such case?

That's... a lot of deaths, and a lot of grieving families.

If the same number of deaths happened at an annual event, it would be major news headlines.

Cucumbers being unwrapped for display, because the plastic should not be visible.