Missing Covid-19 test data was caused by the ill-thought-out use of Excel
bbc.com
bbc.com
EDIT: I have no idea who downvoted my post because what I said is 100% true. We have to tell customers to stop opening CSVs in Excel and then uploading them to us because what they upload could be missing critical data. Excel interprets a number and then formats it as a number, but in healthcare, 10 digit numbers are really strings. Unless your IT team has created an Excel extension and had it preloaded onto your local copy, Excel will remove leading zeros and there isn't a way to get them back if you save/overwrite.
a,b
"01",01
Excel interprets both as the same number–1. ="01"
You can verify this with 01,"01",="01"As for the actual RFC, it's worth taking a read. Any sort of value interpretation is left up to the implementation, to the extent that Excel's behavior in interpreting formulae is 100% in compliance with the spec.
Anyway the RFC doesn't mandate any value interpretation IIRC.
If Excel were the only intended consumer, .xlsx would be a preferable file format. At least it's mostly unambiguous.
Excel may predate the RFC but AFAIK MS didn't invent or coin the term CSV, so you can't just say whatever Excel does is correct. The RFC is loose because of nonsense like this, it doesn't mean it was ever a good idea.
But none of that is really the point. Because CSV files aren't just for importing into Excel. One of their main benefits is their portability. In other situations column types might be specified out of band, but even if not, putting equals signs before values is unconventional, so more likely to hurt than help. And in the cases it might help, i.e. when you only care about loading into Excel, then you have options other than CSV, rather than contorting CSV files for Excel's sake.
> What ever happened to process and a sense of responsibility and craft in your work?
I actually have no idea what you are on about. I'm talking about the "responsibility and craft" of not producing screwed up CSV files. Why do some people find that so offensive? Yes, it is not inconceivable that there could be some situation working with legacy systems where putting `="..."` in CSVs is, unfortunately, your best option. Sometimes you do have to put in a hack to get something done. But don't go around telling people (or yourself) that it is "the correct way".
I actually wanted a CSV file – preferably without having to resort to sed to strip out excel formulae.
For all the other uses in the world, that's a breaking change.
That's a failure of the system if it can't be told to not interpret the data. However you're saying the world is as it is; can't argue.
You are fully correct, I have seen plenty of stuff like that in life sciences projects.
I think it would have been far quicker to just manually write a new column interpreting the dates based on previous/next etc. Instead I spent God knows how long trying to be clever, failing, and being embarrassed that I could not solve this obviously trivial problem.
We're biased to bash on Microsoft for being "too clever" but maybe we need a reality check by looking at the bigger picture.
Examples of other software not written by Microsoft that also drops the leading zeros and users asking questions on how to preserve them:
- Python Pandas import csv issue with leading zeros: https://stackoverflow.com/questions/13250046/how-to-keep-lea...
- R software import csv issue with leading zeros: https://stackoverflow.com/questions/31411119/r-reading-in-cs...
- Google Sheets issue with leading zeros: https://webapps.stackexchange.com/questions/120835/importdat...
Conclusion: For some compelling reason, we have a bunch of independent programmers who all want to remove leading zeros.
And that's what you have in Excel. What gets displayed is a separate issue.
And no, you don't want to see exactly what you typed in, not in the general case.
And no, I can't believe I am defending Excel!
It's user's faults for using it in ways that it was never designed for.
Excel has always been about sticking numbers in boxes and calculating with them.
If you want unmodified string input, input strings into a tool intended to handle them.
Project specifications can be hard. Using 1) .xls files after they were superseded, 2) ANY data transfer method without considering capacity or truncation issues, speaks of incompetence.
People just double click the CSV and complained that it didn't do it correctly. It is the same situation with scientific research data that researchers don't bother to use escape marker or blindly open the file without going through the proper import process. Then they blamed Excel for the that without understanding how Excel works.
Yes, Excel does have their quirks. But there are ways around those quirks, they have thousands of thousands guides out there about Excel. There is no excuses for people to complain about Excel didn't do the way that users want it to do without looking up for information.
Double clicking the CSV should open the data import dialog.
Looking forward to the first time anyone tries to use your excel on a table of numbers and then immediately has to multiply everything by *1 (in a separate table) just to get it back into numbers...
At least you would know what's happening and be in control of it
"Hey, is that a date? I bet that's a date!" - Aaaargh Noooo!
I believe that's the point, it certainly does NOT need to.
That would be the Excel devs working at Microsoft. They read HN. I can feel it.
Thank you.
I guess it depends on which country and which specific part of healthcare you are active in. In the 'care' domain in the Netherlands I also see that some of our integrations are one-off, but the most important ones do have industry wide standardization that receives updates based on law.
Nothing in software development is as straightforward as we might hope.
CSV is text. If you mean in Excel, if you opened it in Excel (rather than importing and choosing non-default options), you've already lost the data so formatting doesn't help you.
https://powerbi.microsoft.com/en-us/
Thanks for bothering to respond instead of downvoting.
Bold strategy there, let's see how that plays out.
Having been in and around military / DoD usages for a long time, I can tell you it's always an uphill battle to get processes to work well, instead of defaulting to whatever the original spec happened to get included as a result of some incompetent who wasn't even aware of good practice.
1. They see a file (they have file extensions turned off, which is the default, so they probably don't even know what a CSV is)
2. They double click it
Excel now corrupted the data. That is the problem. Good luck teaching all end-users how to use Excel properly.
And if, also by default, Excel is setup with an association with CSVs, the CSV file will, in addition to not having an extension to identify it, will have an icon which identifies it with Excel.
First, the upthread commented said "healthcare" not "government agency".
Second, as someone who has worked in public sector healthcare: HA HA HA!
I mean, sure we have the resources to pay for data scientists (of which we have quite a few) and could conceivably probably afford to develop custom scripts for any CSV subformat that we decided we needed one for (though if its a regular workflow, we're probably acquiring it an importing it into a database without nontechnical staff even touching it, and providing a reporting solution and/or native Excel exports for people who need it in Excel.)
The problem is that when people who aren't technical staff or data scientists encounter and try to use CSVs (often, without realizing that's what they are) and produce problems, its usually well before the kind of analysis which would go into that. If its a regular workflow that's been analyzed and planned for, we probably have either built specialized tools or at least the relevant unit has desk procedures. But the aggregate of the stuff outside of regularized workflows is...large.
I would guess that most modern actors in the book business has been primarily using ISBN13 for at least the last decade.
You can either send xlsx with format or csv without format. If this would be disabled then we'd have another group of people complaining that their dates from CSV are not parsed.
Validating the data would at least prevent getting invalid data into database (and presumably this is happening already), but it doesn't actually "fix" the problem, you still then need the original provider of the data to fix what's missing.
Then there's additional code for dealing with all the inconvenient ways people format things, or want to add text labels, or do things closer to numerical/financial analysis, or all the other extras wrapped around the core "put numbers in boxes and do math".
That misunderstanding is at the core of Excel misuse.
I wonder how human operators figure out if the value is correct, or the Excel messed it up, or the input was invalid in the first place? If it's even possible to do it reliably then probably there is some set of patterns and methods that possibly could be turned into an algorithm... just thinking out loud here, but seems as an interesting problem to tackle...
There are many more that don't have a clear spec, or even if they do, have every possible variation of data corruption / keying errors / user misunderstanding / total 'don't give a shit, I'll enter it how I want, that's what the computer is supposed to handle' problems in that source data, that make parsing an absolute nightmare.
I've had to manually review a list of 10k+ data readings monthly, from an automated recorder, because the guy who was supposed to copy the collected data files as is and upload them, instead opened each one and fixed what he (badly mistakenly) thought had been recorded wrong. Different changes in a dozen different ways based on no particular logic beyond "that doesn't look right". And un-fireable, of course.
They clearly do not understand system integration and the use of CSV text files for data interchange between multiple systems and application. Hey, JSON and Javascript libraries are the answer to that, eh
There are already enough potential issues with CSV interpretation on wrapping strings, escaping characters and so on, but changing the content when a delimiter is found should not be added to that list.
You bold point is the most important, the default behaviour of Excel when opening a plain text CSV file is to alter the content for display, applying magic and often-unwanted formatting rules. That should be optional.
It should be possible to open a text CSV file in Excel, view the contents in columns but the same textual form, save the file in CSV format and open it in another viewer/editor and still see the same content as the original file.
And fucking with dates.
The first thing would be to write them as: entry1,"0123456789",entry2 rather than entry1,0123456789,entry2. This has worked for me in some instances in Excel whereby I have to escape certain things inside a string, but I would not be surprised if Excel still messes this up. For example, giving the triangle exclamation mark box and then helpfully suggest to convert to number.
If you want to go further, you can do something like write a routine that alters the CSV, such as entry1,hospitalString(0123456789),entry2. Sure, there are problems with this too, but Excel can break a lot of things and the above examples I do use in practise (the first example I put the double quotes to escape single quotes in foreign language unicode).
Another thing Excel can do is break your dates, by switching months (usually only for dates < 13th of the month, but often a partial conversion in your data for < 13th and >= 13th) or convert dates to integers.
Furthermore, losing preceding zeroes in number-typed values is not unique to excel; it is a common feature in all typed programming languages.
Of course, but the problem isn't that the person who posted the comment doesn't know this - it's that many users of their systems don't know it. Most people are just going to accept whatever defaults Excel suggests and not know any better, causing problems down the line.
Confusion is happening because 2 different ideas of Excel using csv files:
- you saying "can't turn this off" : File Explorer double-clicking a "csv" or MS Excel "File->Open" csv.
- others saying "you can preserve leading zeros" : click on Excel 2019 Data tab and import via "From Text/CSV" button on the ribbon menu and a dialog pops up that provides option "Do not detect data types" (Earlier version of Excel has different verbiage to interpret numbers as text)
It can be avoided, if you go through the Data | Import tools. The complaint is that few Excel users know that the import engine is available, or use it, instead of just opening the file and getting all the default interpolations. Which can't be avoided in the usual Open code path.
I recently had to show a 20+ year Excel-using fanatic how to import data from a CSV file so that they could select as type Text columns that contain leading zeros. The ability exists, but I have found scant few people who know how to actually use the product properly.
Oh, and I also work in healthcare.
I am not trying to be an elitist about this. It is just that the misuse of Excel (because people do not know how to use it) causes massive issues on a daily basis.
You have to remember, Excel is extremely powerful beast. It have many specialized features that will handle any data it encountered with. I used Excel for 15 years and I am still finding features that made the process quicker. Of course, Excel have its limits and I am well aware of that.
Any other use of Excel is bending it into a role it wasn't intended for, and user beware.
And it is all too easy to just go there since there are soooo many convenience features for those who don't want to laern how to do the tasks well.
You are taking the application as it existed 35 years ago and saying it must still be that thing, yet it has had 35 years to evolve far beyond that. Microsoft itself, when it talks about Excel, talks about using it to organize "data", not just numerics data. It has become a more general purpose tool.
Unless you instruct it to interpret the field as a string.
> but in healthcare, 10 digit numbers are really strings.
I'm wondering, if you expect 10 digits and you get less than that, how difficult is it to add some padding zeroes?
Or prepend a letter when producing the CSV to avoid EXCEL doing what it does.
I also work in healthcare.
I had a package get seriously delayed one time because it kept being sent to a city whose 5 digit zip code was equal to [my 5 digit zip code, less its leading 0, and the first digit of my +4]. Fun times.
Except double clicking a CSV does not give you the option to do this. At this point Excel already decided to corrupt your data. And guess how most users open CSV files? That's right, they double click.
> I'm wondering, if you expect 10 digits and you get less than that, how difficult is it to add some padding zeroes?
If you expect 10 digits and get less than that, you have corrupted input data. Trying to "fix" this is exactly the sin excel is committing. Don't do that.
blah,blah,"00001553",blah
Of course there is, in your case. If patient identifiers have a fixed, known length, then you can pad with leading zeros to recover them.
You only have a problem if 012345 and 12345 are distinct patient identifiers.
It is bone-headed in the first place to use numeric-looking identifiers (such as containing digits only) which are really strings, and then allow leading zeros. Identifiers which are really strings should start with a letter (which could be a common prefix). E.g. a patient ID could be a P00123.
This is useful for more than just protecting the 00. Anywhere in the system, including on any printed form, if you see P00123, you have a clue that it's a patient identifier. An input dialog can reject an input that is supposed to be a patient identifier if it is missing the leading P, or else include a fixed P in the UI to remind the user to look for P-something in whatever window or piece of paper they are copying from.
The main point in my comment is that instead of shaking your fist that the behavior of other users in the system, such as those who choose Excel because it's the only data munging thing they know how to use, you can look for ways that your own conventions and procedures are contributing to the issue.
If people are going to "Excel" your data, and then loop it back to you, maybe your system should be "Excel proofed".
5 – London Olympics Oversells Swimming Event by 10,000 Tickets
4- Banking powerhouse Barclay’s accidentally bought 179 more contracts than they intended in their purchase of Lehman Brothers assets in 2008. Someone hid cells containing the unwanted contract instead of deleting them.
3-utsourcing specialists Mouchel had to endure a £4.3 million profits write down due to a spreadsheet error in a pension fund deficit caused by an outside firm of actuaries
2- Canadian power generator TransAlta suffered losses of $24 million as the result of a simple clerical error which meant they bought US contracts at higher prices than they should hav
and the Biggest one is. -
Basic Excel flaws and incorrect testing led to JP Morgan Chase losing more than $6 billion in their London Whale disaster.
https://floatapp.com/us/blog/5-greatest-spreadsheet-errors-o...
"Scientists rename human genes to stop Microsoft Excel from misreading them as dates. Sometimes it’s easier to rewrite genetics than update Excel" https://www.theverge.com/2020/8/6/21355674/human-genes-renam...
https://mathbabe.org/2013/04/17/global-move-to-austerity-bas...
To be fair, I'm not sure if any of the proponents actually believed (or had read) the study, but it was definitely wheeled out in debates against Keynesians.
Or even an algorithm that can detect that you are using gene name from the cells around march1 and sept7.
Entire Japanese stock market went down last week, and it's not like there was a flood of people on HN bemoaning that. At least with Reinhart and Rogoff et al you have a responsible party.
As opposed to 'nameless machine failed, and nameless backup machine also failed, and now it's in JIRA so don't worry about it'.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/30/business/tokyo-stock-mark...
The glitch stemmed from a problem in the hardware that powers the exchange, said the Japan Exchange Group, the exchange’s operator, during a news conference. The system failed to switch to a backup in response to the problem, a representative said.
I guess you still have to understand locking (especially on distributed filesystems.) I've certainly seen people mess that up with spreadsheets.
Of course, there's a bit of a gap between "it's there on the machine" and "we can rely on it for useful work", but baby steps...
And because Excel is "good" for a vast number of use-cases then people use it for everything.
Throwing up a database and integrating it into a workflow/system isn't something anyone can just get up and do. I have to imagein you know that.
And if it was manual I am surprised that Excel did not complain about adding more than 65000 rows (or saving more than 65000 rows as XLS). If a user gets a warning about possible data loss they should investigate more.
When people wants a “database” they fire up Excel, start punching in numbers, solar calculators next to keyboard, and use eyeballs to search for strings.
We are able to teach almost everyone how to use complex software like Word and Excel. Why can't we teach people how to use a terminal, SQLite, or how to create a very simple Python script?
MS Access used to come as standard with Office and is actually the perfect solution to many of the problems that businesses use Excel for. It's very rarely that people actually used Access as Excel was far more intuitive and good enough for many projects especially in the early stages.
At the same time, the business world runs on Excel. How much money is Excel making?
I've done my share of cursing at Excel at various jobs. At the same time, I am grateful for the quick and easy way it allows me and many others to manipulate data. It's unfair to just cite the costs of using Excel without acknowledging the benefits it brings.
Excel's ease of use is it's downfall. It is the worlds most popular database, despite not actually being a database. I have wasted countless hours dealing with Excel where something else should have been used. I built a database for a friend recently, I think 75% of the work was cleaning the existing data from the excel to get it into the database.
Plus in a database you can’t do the same sort of real-time analysis and also pass the document around for other non-technical folk to add to and modify.
In the real world in big companies, people often don’t want to talk to IT because they over-spec and quote what are perceived to be giant sums of money for something that can be created in an hour in excel.
We blame excel, but excel is really just being used for prototyping and nobody takes a decision at a certain point to move on from that prototype.
I disagree that lack of db knowledge is the primary reason. I'm a programmer and I usually use MS Excel because it's easier than relational databases. I prefer Excel even though my skillset includes:
+ Oracle DBA certification and working as a real db administrator for 2 years
+ MySQL and MS SQL Server programming with raw "INSERT/UPDATE/DELETE" or with ORMs
+ SQLite and programming with its API in C/C++/C#
+ MS Access databases and writing VB for enterprises
The problem is none of the above databases (except for MSAccess) come with a GUI datagridview for easy inputting data, sorting columns, coloring cells, printing reports, etc.
Yes, there are some GUI tools such as SQLyog, Jetbrains DataGrip, Navicat, etc... but none of those have the flexibility and power of Excel.
Yes, a GUI frontend to interact with backend databases can be built and to that point, I also have in my skillset: Qt with C++ and Windows Forms with C#.
But my GUI programming skills also don't matter because for most data analysis tasks, I just use Excel if it's less than a million rows. Databases have a higher level of friction and all of my advanced skills don't really change that. Starting MS Excel with a blank worksheet and start typing immediately into cell A1 is always faster than spinning up a db instance and entering SQL "CREATE TABLE xyz (...);" commands.
Of course, if it's a mission-critical enterprise program, I'll recommend and code a "real" app with a relational database. However, the threshold for that has to be really high. This is why no corporate IT department can develop "real database apps" as fast as Excel users can create adhoc spreadsheets. (My previous comment about that phenomenon: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15756400)
It's often only after years of a business using what has become sacred & business critical Excels, that somebody suggests formalizing it into software. In a business with an IT function, or a consultancy looking for business, it should always be somebody's job to find these Excels and replace them with something more robust.
Honestly, I miss the days of writing VBA macros which save hours of work a week and being sneered at by the 'official IT'.
I worked in a team in a large commercial bank handling reconciliations with various funds. Some of which had to be contacted by phone to confirm the current holdings. We had a system which would import our current positions and take imports in various formats from funds. Somewhere around 40% of the differences where due to trades which had been executed over the reconciliation date. I wrote a VBA script which pulled in all of the differences and identified trades which where open over the period and automatically closed the discrepancy with a reference to the trade IDs.
Another time I wrote a VBA script which would take a case ID and look it up in a diary system (at the time the only way I found to do this was to use the Win32 APIs and manually parse the fields in the HTML from the system), it would then enter this at the top of a spreadsheet which had to be completed. People liked it so much I had to rewrite it so that it would work on a list of case IDs and automatically print out the checklist.
Much more fun than figuring out why Kubernetes is doing something weird for the 3rd time this week.
"A database is an organized collection of data, generally stored and accessed electronically from a computer system."[1]
Excel is an organized collection of data, stored and accessed electronically from a computer system. So I would call it a database.
This link will explain the difference between two of them. https://365datascience.com/explainer-video/database-vs-sprea...
https://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/19/opinion/krugman-the-excel...
Excel is great for many use cases, especially if you need people to enter data somewhere. Its UI is unparalleled in terms of quickly giving something to users that they can understand, mess around with, and verify. It's a very common use case to then need to pull in data from a bunch of Excel files, into one main repository of data (a data warehouse). That can be stored in an Excel file, although more commonly would be stored in a database.
But there are always problems with this process! There can be missing data, there can be weird data conversions because the program/language you're using to parse the data and get it into the database reads things differently than how Excel intended, there can be weird database issues that causes data loss, etc.
Complex systems always, always have bugs.
It is the job of a data engineering team to, among other things, test the systems thoroughly, and put in place systems to test against data loss, etc. It is pretty common, for example, to count the data going into a pipeline, and the data that you end up with, and make sure nothing was lost on the way.
Anyone can make a mistake. Any team, no matter how good, especially when they're rushed, can use shortcuts, use the wrong technologies because it's expedient, or simply have bugs. It is the job of the team, and of project management in general, to do all the manual and automatic testing necessary to make sure that mistakes are caught.
The real lesson isn't "Excel is bad". It's not. It's an amazing tool. The real lesson is "Data Engineering is hard, requires a lot of resources", and "all systems have bugs - testing is mandatory for any critical system".
Anyone who comes at a problem with the mindset 'this is going to he hard' probably lacks experience and will throw big-data frameworks at it, really screwing things up. The most significant, and valuable, resource needed is thought first, and knowledge+experience second.
All IMO anyway.
You can write a simple test to check a function is working correctly, but how do you make sure your 100,000 item database doesn't have corrupted or missing data caused by the latest pipeline update, especially if the corrupted parts are rare?
Also, recognized good practices for software development (which any excel sheet that does more than just a sum() will be) like commenting and versioning are quite hard to impossible in excel. So even if you endavour to do it "right" but with excel, it is just the wrong tool for the job.
There might be, for example, a formula going through 20k lines in column F. But the one on line 1138 has a typo and the formula references an incorrect cell. No human will ever go through all the lines to check. Excel itself doesn't check stuff like that. And there are no tools for it either.
All you need to do is scroll through the worksheet you have just made.
Anything below 500k rows is a 'small table' still.
We have computers to do that sort of work.
After all, it's people that make computers do this work in the first place.
Sometimes you get an number, sometimes you get a string containing a number. Sometimes the string contains white space that you don't want. And then there are dates, which can have similar problems multiplied ten times.
The only correct usages of excel (and google sheets) are for user input to other processes, and visualization of data (which should be definitely stored in raw format in some database). And always assuming frequent backups of all sheets and of course manageable datasets. Anything else that includes external processes/scripts which append/ovewrite data in sheets is terrible practice and very error-prone.
Again, it's hard to cry too many tears for Microsoft, but it does seem a bit off-target to blame "Excel" for this...
Ultimately tools are built for particular things, and if you choose to use a tool for something it's not built for, and it breaks catastrophically, that's on you.
Throwing away data without warning is almost certainly never what the user wanted.
Not to mention that complex formulae are still usually expressed as a bunch of gobbledygook in the cell value textbox, which is about as easy to parse as minified Javascript. And that's to technical users like ourselves.
The story I mentioned was because I wanted to look at the data before I started parsing it. I had full expectations to use either sqlite or Pandas.
Excel is a wonderfully powerful tool that’s very bad at handling errors clearly.
It seems that warning has just been ignored by the user.
JS would like to have a word with you.
> And it appears that Public Health England (PHE) was to blame, rather than a third-party contractor.
This is a problem of bad coding, and using the wrong tool for the job.
A defensive coding practice would have prevented this from going unseen. Using a database to store data would have prevented such arbitrary limits.
My bet is the biggest problem here is subcontracting this work to the lowest bidder, presumably from some developing country.
knowing a little how things (don't) work in the UK, it's likely subcontracted, but to a company belonging to a mate of the director in charge of the whole thing
> > And it appears that Public Health England (PHE) was to blame, rather than a third-party contractor.
As far as bugs go, it doesn’t sound that bad. They didn’t lose data - they just processed it late? And they spotted it within days/weeks, and have a workaround/correction already? And it’s only the reporting that was wrong, not the more important part where they inform people of results?
I’d rather have this system now than be waiting for the requirements analysis to conclude on the perfect system.
Partly I think the Excel bit is news because Excel (and mistakes made with Excel) is easily relatable to people. But bugs always come up and most other bugs are just as stupid. If it had been an off-by-one loop error in some C code somewhere it would be just as dumb but you'd get none of the facepalm memes all over Twitter.
Not when it turns phone numbers into integers and strips off the leading zero.
A delay in the test results means the contact tracing could not happen, and people will have been going around spreading the virus they caught off the original, known cases.
Also, the whole test and trace system has been in the news a lot recently here for various failings, and things like this will just further knock people's confidence in it.
A recent piece in The Atlantic argues that we got it all wrong, we should test backwards (who infected the current patient) instead of forwards.
This particularity is caused by the dispersion factor K which is a metric hidden (conflated) by the R0, meaning that the same R0 would be handled differently depending on the K factor.
A related suggestion was that we should focus more on super-spreaders as COVID doesn't spread uniformly. That's why the probability of finding a cluster is higher looking back than forward - most people don't get to actually spread the virus.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overloo...
I could see that i could be a rush job problem, but in this case they're not gaining any time.
I guess its easier to understand since everyone uses excel, however it does end up giving a halo of blame to excel, as opposed to human processes.
That’s the scandal: it’s the type of basic error that it screams “they’re not handling this well.” You wouldn’t tolerate your new SWE colleague asking “What’s an array again?”
If publishing the whole set of data was delayed by excel crashing - fine. But silent failure because they ran out of columns? Cmon...
In the grand scheme of things, having problems because of inexperienced people is much better than not having enough people like during April and May.
Why is that a broken assumption? Can you name a legitimate reason for HTTP and HTTPS sites to serve separate contents and audiences? I would rather not connect over HTTP to _anything_ nowadays.
And for sites with noncritical static content https is superfluous to dangerous. ESNI isn't implemented yet, IP addresses are still visible to the eyes. And content sizes and timing are a dead giveaway for the things you are looking at. HTTPS for everything is just a simulation of privacy at best, and misleading and dangerous at worst, because there IS NO PRIVACY in the aforementioned cases.
Wow. Thank you for this gem of human culture.
« PHE had set up an automatic process to pull this data together into Excel templates [...] When [the row limit] was reached, further cases were simply left off. »
The terrible thing here is dropping data rather than reporting an error and refusing to run.
It isn't clear what piece of software was behind this "automatic process".
Clearly the responsible humans are to blame.
If the software that dropped data rather than failing has that as its default behaviour, or is easily configured to do that, then I think that software (and its authors) are also to blame.
Is there anything in Excel itself that behaves like that?
I'd imagine the default error-handling behaviour of 9/10 Excel macros is to throw away data
I wonder how many bleeding edge master branches of GitHub repos, pulled in blindly by someone cobbling something together to meet a deadline, are running in places they probably shouldn't be.
It's not the fault of the original designer if he was clearly targetting a different purpose.
Lots of love for it in Rx
They probably mean a semi-automated process within excel, where each tab is a days extract or something similar and they are using external references to other sheets. In any vaguely up-to-date version of excel the way you would do this is via 'get and transform' which does not have any of these limitations (including the 1m record limit that the news article suggests).
The funny thing is that the latest versions of Excel are brilliant at aggregating and analyzing data and are more than suitable for this task if used correctly (i.e. using PowerQuery). It's just that way less than 1% of users are aware of this functionality - I would assume that even most hacker news readers probably don't know about PowerQuery/PowerPivot, writing M in excel and setting up data relationships e.t.c.
Or at least how often my peers do that. Obviously all of my systems and code are perfect.
This also amazes me, especially the whining about other people's code from developers. Truely believing that they would do it better. I've even seen inherited code posted to be ridiculed/shamed/bashed in some slacks and subreddits.
If the schema is consistent between rows, and it turns out a test result is made up of several rows because the test is composed of several stages, I would leave it as is until reporting time.
If you pivot prematurely, you could end up dropping data because there are new stages didn't exist when you implemented the pivot.
In that scenario, indeed no action seems to be needed, because each row is one observation: every test stage is an observation. So it would seem to make sense.
One could then argue that each patient deserves their own table (observational unit).
But as other commenters pointed out, this is all speculation.
7-day moving average: http://danger.handley.org.uk/misc/rates-uk-recent.png
Raw data: http://danger.handley.org.uk/misc/rates-uk.png
Looks like all regions were affected, but by far the largest corrections are in NW, NE and Yorkshire regions. In particular, NE had looked like cases were declining, but we can now see this was incorrect, and they're still increasing rapidly
Edit: note the most recent 3 days are always incomplete, so any decline shown there is not a real effect.
Before the recent leap in cases my test took 6 days to come back (negative). My wife's test at the same time came back the next day. At the time they were saying that 72 hours was the expected return time for results. For me it has been a couple of days of steadily worsening coughing, and I gather people take about 3days-1week to show symptoms ordinarily.
So UK results are most likely reflecting infections from 1-2 weeks ago.
This simple post-condition would have caught this issue: The sheet after merge operation must have a number of rows equal to the sum of number of rows for all merged sheets.
Assuming this is a merge of a standardized input, then another post-condition might be: The number of columns in output shall equal the number of columns in the input. Might want to check header names, and order as well.
Thinking in terms of universal properties, and putting the checks into production, is better than unit-testing.
Do a SUM and match it against a COUNTIF on another column, or something. It doesn’t really matter what it is but if the data is important at all, I always scatter little checks throughout.
The case described in this article sounds like someone who just doesn’t know how to use Excel. I mean why in the name of VLOOKUP would you override the default and choose to save as .xls? That was a conscious decision. Anyone worth their salt knows that’s stupid.
Excel is not to blame here.
I'm not sure they teach that in medical school.
They have to deal with a field that was haphasardly constructed by nature over the course of 4 billion years.
Imagine having to retro-document a code base with 4 billion years of history, created solely by junior developers fresh out of college..
The problem is that PHE's own developers picked an old file format to do this - known as XLS.
I only say that because, as someone who is painfully aware of the limitations and problems of those formats, I'm similarly aware of getting "that web-guy" on a project who proclaims "lets put things in a modern xlm format!", and lo and behold the process is now an order of magnitude slower and the xml format an order of magnitude larger than the simple delimited tabular format or stream.
I'm also painfully aware of the old systems (and how old health systems are) with fixed sized buffers and processes, so I can see how this would happen in the context of a lot of computing.
Edit: i see later on someone is mentioning that twitter suggests it had to do with excel file size limitations...
Since Excel is one of the few standard pieces of software that knows how to open CSV, it gets used a lot of times when it shouldn't. There's another post I made comparing Excel to a swiss army knife, and there's a reason for that.
The startups I've worked at since have all been big on GSuite.
I use SQLite as files a lot for this reason.
Worth noting that XML is also a text format. SGML even can treat CSVs as markup. There's nothing wrong with CSVs/TSVs anyway - it's a concise tabular format using only minimal special coding for a record and a field separator, as envisioned by ASCII and EDIFACT. The problem seems more like that there was no error checking in place to capture file write errors, or more generally the use of non-reproducible, manual operating practices which seems common in data processing.
Excel is used extensively in many industries. Any file could be cut off in processing by any number of reasons, one off errors for e.g.
So the solution is to "fix" the process by using the existing broken process and smaller files....
I can see the theoretical purity of this statement, but based on my experience working with CSV files generated by actual non-technical users I have to disagree here.
There are a number of footguns here that are really subtle and the average non-technical user has no hope of spotting them.
Problems that I've seen in the wild, off the top of my head:
* Windows vs. Linux line terminators breaks some CSV libraries.
* Encoding can change depending on what program emitted the CSV file, and auto-detecting encoding is not perfect. For example, Excel for Mac uses Linux encoding by default, IIRC.
* Excel does wacky things when you export a "CSV" in the wrong format; real users use Excel to generate their CSVs, not Python. For example if you import the string "0123456789" in an Excel sheet, it infers "number" and strips the leading "0" when you export. Now your bank account/routing numbers are invalid!
* "What's a TSV?" -- if users use CSV, how do you handle commas in the data? It's nontrivial to train users to do their CSV upload as a TSV.
Etc.
In practice we needed to build a fairly beefy helpdesk article with accumulated wisdom on how to not break your CSV exports, and most users don't read/remember these steps until they experience the trauma first-hand.
I'd say the CSV format is deceptively simple -- it's quite easy to do the right thing as a developer where the source and sink are both code you control, but in the wild it gets messy really quickly.
[0] Except type conversion, which is a real problem.
The first CSV file was created in 1983. The first CSV standard was created in 2005[1].
The two decades of CSV surviving as an informal standard means that it takes minutes to make a 95% complete CSV parser and an infinite amount of time to make a 99.99% complete CSV parser.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comma-separated_values#History
The DOM for a large XML document will of course take tons of space in memory. The key to parsing XML files quickly and with low memory consumption is to only keep in memory what's necessary, by streaming over the elements.
It was a data pipeline issue. Software has little to do with it. If they received data in json and tried to interpret it as CSV, the same could have happened. I believe Excel even warns when you open file that has too many rows.
Tools exist, for analysts and engineers (MS Access comes to mind for the analyst, python for the engineer), that would rectify the problem. And I think it's a fair assumption to say that those tools would be readily available.
Kinda sounds like a management issue, as well. No one ever said "hey you know XLS doesn't support all of this data"?
What a mess.
One lesson I’d draw from that is to favor simple human-readable text formats like CSV, where they’re suitable for the job at hand.
From : http://www.decisionmodels.com/calcsecretsc.htm
When a cell in a spreadsheet refers to another cell it must be finally calculated after the cell it refers to. This is called a Dependency.
Excel recognizes dependencies by looking at each formula and seeing what cells are referred to. See Dependency Trees for more details of how Excel determines dependencies.
Understanding this is important for User Defined Functions because you need to make sure that all the cells the function uses are referred to in the function arguments. Otherwise Excel may not be able to correctly determine when the function needs to calculated, and what its dependencies are, and you may get an unexpected answer. Specifying Application.Volatile or using Ctrl/Alt/F9 will often enable Excel to bypass this problem, but you still need to write your function to handle multiple executions per calculation cycle and uncalculated data.
Then I wonder, is there any tool that mimic Excell but with Sqlite as the backend? The limit of rows in Sqlite is 2 raised to the power of 64 (18446744073709551616 or about 1.8e+19).
[1] https://twitter.com/standupmaths/status/1313055411285774336?...
edit: retracting this as the person who posted that tweet made a correction in one of the replies
That's a thing, it's a manual impact driver. And sometimes it is the right tool for the job (for example, when you have stuck screws and a regular screwdriver would just strip the head).
My naive view would expect tables <-> sheets; rows <-> tuples to be easy to do (for MS) and just don't touch the relational aspects??
https://support.microsoft.com/en-us/office/power-pivot-power...
As you might see from that link it's semi-integrated with the Excel interface, but the differences in the underlying model show through in some ways (like not being able to edit individual cells or use VBA)
So when the proposals come in, you're going to see one guy who says it's all common sense and we use familiar old excel for everything, and another lunatic who says something called "pigsqueal" is actually the standard, connected to a "frontend" which for some reason is now separate to the "backend". This nutter thinks we have time to write some unit tests and also wants to add an authentication module so we know who uploaded what. And somehow he thinks we need to add logging so we can ensure errors can be tracked and debugged. Amazingly he seems to be suggesting that there's going to be errors in our process.
The reality is that Excel is available today and works, and scales up... well, until it doesn't. Still, you have data entry that everybody in the field understands, that's rock solid (so no need to unit test anything), and has a tried and true authentication module built in (a file sent from a government mail address). There's a risk of user errors, but the system will be working immediately[0]. Deployment can be done by anyone, as it's just clicking on File->New and starting to type data in.
Meanwhile, a "pigsqueal" solution will take half a year to design, produce and deploy (that's in an emergency, a year otherwise). And that's with competent IT people, and not someone who wants to profiteer off the crisis. Then you'll have to train the users, and hope the reality won't necessitate any changes, because they will take a while.
I think plenty of decent coders appreciate the fact that Excel is suitable for a surprisingly wide range of tasks, and that if you spot it widely used somewhere, it most likely means there isn't any comparable alternative available.
--
[0] - Note that the user error that finally happened did not happen in the place where you'd expect it to.
I'd be surprised if either of the above could handle 65k rows in a single table without becoming near-unusable.
I would be much more upset to find out a governemnt employ on a deadline used Google Sheets or Airtable to share my medical data instead of an Excel doc on a secure government file server.
I've heard on the grapevine that several fortune 500 companies are on O365 because Google wouldn't disassociate docs from data gathering, even at the level of high touch high paying customers and they rightfully consider their internal documents to be part of their IP. Microsoft says "sure" and flips a secret "don't even gather stack traces on the server" flag for these customers.
Having looked at the marketplace for HIPAA compliant solutions for educational therapy patient record keeping (patient CRM, whatever the industry term is), I'd feel so much safer having my data in the hands of Airtable than the absolute dumpster fire that was every offering I saw.
" For customers who are subject to the requirements of the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA), G Suite and Cloud Identity can also support HIPAA compliance"
https://support.google.com/a/answer/3407054?hl=en
> secure
"UHS says all U.S. facilities affected by apparent ransomware attack Computer systems at Pennsylvania-based Universal Health Services began to fail over the weekend, leading to a network shutdown at hospitals around the country."
https://www.healthcareitnews.com/news/uhs-says-all-us-facili...
It is implausible that every hospital, clinic, lab and other medical organization in the UK would sign up to G Suite and deploy it to every of their employees; or that the British government would negotiate some kind of procurement contract with Google quickly for all that to be practical.
Absent those issues, Google Sheets has a limit of 18k columns and 5m total cells, in this case the issue was that they hit Excel's 16k column limit. Not much of an upgrade there.
Just getting the approval and contracts would take longer than the entire span of the project.
On top of that, there is STILL room for human error as a user is still the one actually inputting data and designing the experiment/data flow.
I'm going to get mauled on this forum given the audience, but parent comment reeks of the technical elitism on this forum and the tendency to immediately condemn anyone who is using excel.
Excel works great - I've personally built some very complicated models that work just fine. Goes through the same process of QA and line-by-line checking of requirements.
Not sure what the big deal is - mistakes happen in excel or otherwise.
That's simply not possible unless you have a whole system around excel running a year harness.
You can maybe do it if you are super dedicated with locked cells and formal double-blind QA passes which maybe exist somewhere but not in the vast majority of operations.
I don’t know what you think I have in my unit tests, but it’s almost certainly not whatever you mentioned.
Using excel as an alternative to CSV is fine. It’s not like anyone was doing anhthing complicated here. Just storing data.
Clippy the Paperclip
Hi, it looks like this alphanumeric constant is the date format used by the Democratic Peoples Republic of Arstotzka for the year 127 BC. I have changed the encoding for the file to Arstotzka standard and overwritten the original.
Doing code reviews in Excel is hard if the developers are pathologically disciplined. It's impossible most of the time.
And so is debugging.
It's very unlikely any such system would face these limitations and would silently ignore data the same way Excel did.
I’ve seen plenty of production systems that ignore or hide errors. Sometimes they’re still logging them, but it just goes to some log store or file that the team doesn’t check until their customers or support team inform them that it’s broken.
Good practice? No. But there are plenty of ways to mess up a non-Excel system and get something that works worse.
Excel is the wrong tool because it mixes presentation and data, to the point that geneticists had to change the names of genes so their spreadsheets would stop turning them silently into dates and then destructively changing the original data[0].
>Excel works great - I've personally built some very complicated models that work just fine.
I've personally cleaned up after people like you, which cost the business millions of dollars because they didn't realize how unqualified they were for doing their jobs.
>Goes through the same process of QA and line-by-line checking of requirements.
Somewhat difficult as excel is not line based. "Oh yes, these constants are on a different sheet, if you just click here, here, here and here you can see where we get the original data, we multiply it by 1.0 to make sure it's not a date over there and then we feed it back ..." if excel was sanely serializable you could easily version control it and see meaningful diffs between check ins. Double points if you could run tests on sheets and run them in batch mode easily (I said easily).
[0] https://interestingengineering.com/genes-renamed-to-stop-mic...
Yep...
The critical question that always gets blank stares is "How is this data and calculations validated"
There is never an answer to that question from the ExcelMaster, it is always a variation of "it looks correct to me"
Wonderful....
No one is saying to manage millions of records etc.
But you can get more mileage out of excel than people think - and people who half understand it are the worse because they know enough to know that it doesn't work.
Custom solutions are great - but aren't always the answer and with proper process Excel will work just fine in many use cases.
Ye gads, why didn't we think of that in any other programming language? If we know what we're doing we can do whatever we feel like, and if we get the wrong answers, it was obvious that we didn't know what we were doing which can be fixed by just knowing what we were doing!
Excel's only use case is for data that fits on one screen, or an exploratory poke at the data to see what's in which column and if there are any patterns you can eyeball. Then you put those hunches in a script and start doing the work for real.
Meanwhile scientists use Excel for lots of stuff.. since it works. It has a not nice "feature" of those conversions.
So option 1) throw away the tool you use every day 2) change the gene name
Option 2 makes sense, although everyone would be more happy if Microsoft gave an option to toggle that auto-conversion off [there is option to properly load CSV files but people dont use it, since it takes more time...]
And if you want to get personal to that level they all the same know it all personality who think they write MUCH better code than they actually do.
Pretty sure they cost companies even more money.
Luckily for me, I have the practical sense to know when to use what tool and so far it's worked out just fine. I wouldn’t use excel where not appropriate, so kindly don’t make assumptions.
But more power to you, keep shitting on tools that are more sophisticated than you probably think.
People who half know excel are the worse, they are the ones who know it just well enough to think it doesn't work at all.
Custom solutions are great - but aren't always the answer and with proper process Excel will work just fine in many use cases that you might not expect.
I could blab on about this forever, because, you know, there is a lot of gray area or whatever.
There comes a point where using a spork to drill holes in walls is not the right solution. That you're shitting on people pointing out the obvious tells me you're still stuck in the 90s windows developer mindset.
Ok, ask a geneticist to build what they need with their “off the shelf” parts you mentioned vs 90% of the time being self sufficient with excel and allowing them to, you know, do genetics work. (The other 10 percent being where it makes sense to build something more custom).
Reminds me of the classic HN post when Dropbox had just launched where the user exclaimed “this is just a mounted blah blah using subversion blah anyone can do it” (paraphrased)
That old Dropbox post summarizes this mindset quite well.
And if being practical with your head not in the clouds making sane business AND technical decisions is what the 90s were like, man I missed out.
I guess at the end of the day we’re arguing over where you draw the line regarding when to stop using excel and graduate to something different, a blurry line that at the end of the day is a judgement call.
Oh and for the record I wasn’t even arguing against or for this particular use case in this post - speaking more in general terms.
The dropbox post was right. Knowing someone who wins a lottery is no reason to conclude spending all your money on lottery tickets is a good investment. Which is as much as I said in that thread when it happened. That they were solving a problem for idiots comes with the problem that idiots are too stupid to realize when a problem is solved, so you need to focus on looking like you've solved it instead. Funnily enough dropbox spent herculean amounts of effort on polishing the UI.
>And if being practical with my head not in the clouds making sane business AND technical decisions is what the 90s were like, man I missed out.
Spoken like someone who has done neither.
Enough said.
Within its constraints excel is great. Depending on the nature of your data and exactly what you are trying to do it can accomplish quite a bit.
The line between when to use excel and when to build custom stuff is not as clear as it seems, is all I'm trying to say.
Excel is nice for visualizing and browsing data you already have, and informally searching and sorting for hypothesis generation.
That is patently untrue. I've borrowed and lent money based on Excel spreadsheets, more than once. That's small-scale math with real-life consequences, and Excel is an excellent tool for the job.
This is why Excel is so well known, because once you get the hang of it, it becomes a great tool for something small.
It scales poorly though.
Lots of people use Excel for various types of math, and it works fine, if you know what you're doing. Excel not being idiot-proof doesn't mean it's not usable.
And that's all without writing a single line of VBA.
(We can have a separate discussion about some of the newer Excel features, like automatically suggesting what kind of statistical analyses to perform on your data - I consider this to be a potential future source of serious fuckups, as it allows people to easily transform data using methods, whose assumptions and implications they do not understand.)
> "looks fine" until it shows a result someone doesn't want, and then an error is found that changes results and the cycle repeats
That's a feature, though. Excel is interactive, which means you get ample opportunity to do sanity checks on results (both partial and final) as you work on your sheet, as well as immediate feedback on corrections. In "properly written" IT systems, this is rarely the case - you end up discovering a problem further down the chain, and have to figure out which component did something wrong, and why.
That IS the dumpster fire. Trust me, the reason I know is that I used to be that guy who thought Excel was a great tool.
I built derivatives spreadsheets, backoffice spreadsheets, trading systems with realtime data, all sorts of crap in Excel.
Really, it's Stockholm Syndrome. People who previously had zero computing power at their disposal think they've found the hammer that solves all problems when they're introduced to Excel, because now they can calculate lots of numbers.
They just get blinded by the revelation that they can now calculate "anything" and are happy to pay whatever the cost is in terms of future maintenance, ease of understanding, etc.
> Excel not being idiot-proof doesn't mean it's not usable.
This is absolutely true, I'd be able to do much better with Excel now than earlier. The problem is Dunning Krueger. There are too many people who think they can code once they're able to get a bit of Excel going, and they don't know that they can't. Not trying to be condescending, I've been there myself. It's just that you get a lot of "coding is a thing I have to do in order to get to some target", and so people think that once they've finally bashed out their spreadsheet, they've figured it all out.
The "people who previously had zero computing power at their disposal" may be wrong in thinking "they've found the hammer that solves all problems" - but there's literally no other hammer available for them. They're not programmers, they won't write their own software (nor would they be allowed to). Any other option involves so much organizational overhead - both initial and ongoing - that it's a non-starter.
I agree that people routinely use Excel way beyond their own skills. But I haven't heard of any viable alternative.
They already have the infrastructure.
They have loads of coders sitting at home, not completely utilized. (Dunno how true it is, but a lot of people here comment that.)
They've already written programs to do something similar.
They're well aware of side issues like data protection, security, cross-platform, etc.
They could use the goodwill.
Wasn't Google already involved somewhere? Surely they can figure out how to count some tests as well.
I suppose if you're clueless you'll think Accenture or Capita are the same as Google, so yeah maybe we are screwed.
Another piece is pervasive auditability. Any result should come with an explanation of where it came from; "Bob did some calculations in his head and he reckons the answer is 7" would be acceptable for some kinds of business decisions, while for others it needs to be more like "Bob followed the procedure specified in the XZY institute handbook, page 456". Somehow we've let all that go out the window, partly because people who don't understand computing are managing organisations that deeply depend on it. But you don't even really need computer literacy; what you do need is the same kind of scepticism that you'd apply to any other piece of work.
Managers need to manage. Some of the problem is just people lacking the necessary skills (and a lot of that goes all the way to the top: the UK government doesn't have the wherewithal to hire skilled computer professionals because at every level the people on top don't have the skills to assess whether the people below them are any good), but a lot is a misplaced perception of computers as infallible.
I have a friend who wrote a 641-line long bash script to automate a web site. It doesn't use subroutines anywhere, the body for the program is a 550 line long loop with multiple if statements and loops inside it.
He thinks the program is maintainable and easy to understand because he didn't have particular difficulty writing it.
What??
What school or book did he read that made him think that was a good idea?
Obviously, he's not a programmer. The script, for us, is bad. Perhaps if something important for him depends on this script working, he should pay a software developer to spend some time cleaning it up.
Indeed. it was a hobby project of his.
There is a difference between a calculator and a type writer and there is a difference between an office os and one for programming.
Using Windows and blaming Octave for Windows sucking is a rite of passage for everyone in a BSc program. I hope you got better and switched to a Unix.
I was 19 or 20 back then, and Windows was my main OS - though I did have some experience with Linux as well (running several distributions for desktop use, as well as working with Cygwin and SFU on Windows), and I was a relatively proficient C++ programmer, having spent ~6 years of pretty much all my after-school time coding game engines.
So it's not that I couldn't make it work - I eventually did. But it was so rough around the edges that I gave up in frustration twice.
And yeah, these days, Linux is my daily driver (well, technically Emacs - Linux distros are just various flavors of Emacs bootloaders for me).
$300 per hour, I bring my own crystal ball, runes, chicken bones or voodoo doll based on customer requirements.
Excel is the right solution in the same way playdoh is a valid building material.
I sooo badly want that on a T-Shirt.....
Maybe that's the problem? Excel is so easy to start with that people with no experience think they've mastered it, and the industry doesn't seem to have specified any best practices, much less testing the interviewees for their knowledge of them.
Like all tools, you have to know how to use Excel. If this is the only error that’s come up, well, so many other problems would have come up with a bespoke solution that Excel is still miles ahead in my book
Getting from infinite capacity planner to the finite version took quite a while!
I don't think you can fault the tool. VBA in a spreadsheet gives you a lot of power but it needs discipline to wield correctly. I used to have a row at the bottom of all my tables with the word "End" in tiny text in each column, always formatted white on red. All my routines that ran down the table to look up and do something would always look for that signal that the end had been found. Nearly all formulae were entered by VBA. I had auditing routines that would test the various sheets for errors - I suppose I "discovered" unit tests. One of them looked for a row of text with specific formatting ... Another obvious check is having row and column sums cross checking each other. I (re)discovered loads of little things like that.
With care a spreadsheet can be quite handy for all sorts of tasks but please don't equate the ill advised monstrosities you (and I) might have come across in the past with a fault in the tool itself.
Anyway, there is a lot more to this story than that and back then I had a IBM System/36 running the show as well to worry about. Twinax is a right old laugh to deal with. I remember going to Eng and asking to borrow a spanner and a soldering iron - "but you're Planning, what do you need those for".
Sorry, started waffling 8)
(v) How to forecast demand from the multiples in the UK for pasties, sausage rolls etc, back in the day. There are two cycles one is weekly and the other is roughly annual, with peaks and sometimes spikes at Easter and Christmas and some upticks at bank holidays. The weekly one literally looks like a sine wave, the annual one is a bit more involved. As a first go, take the last three orders by day of week for a product and calculate an exponentially smoothed forecast for next week. For example take the last three Mondays to get next Mondays's forecast. Bear in mind that you need to prep, make, bake, chill and wrap the product and ship to depot with about seven to 11 days shelf life and it takes something like one to three days to do that. You are always making to forecast, which is quite tricky. This was about 25 years ago but Asda, Nisa, Lidl etc used to take our forecast and fax/EDI it back as an order without changes.
Excel is great in my industry (slot machine game/math design). It is fantastic for doing game calculations and there are reasonable ways to do error handling/checking for correctness.
I could say the same about programming a web app without writing tests/spending some time on system architecture. It looks fine until it doesn’t work.
In both instances of development (I argue constructing an Excel workbook in my line of work is very similar to programming) there are ways to mitigate risks by doing things similar to “writing tests”.
that is crazy talk, the amount of user error that can happen in an Excel spreadsheet means that you would need to do crazy macro work in order to maintain the integrity of the data
Hey @TeMPOraL, there's a guy with a withdrawn PhD thesis on line 1 who'd like a word with you...
http://blogs.nature.com/naturejobs/2017/02/27/escape-gene-na...
I think you let them off too easily by just assuming they're dumb. This a bad decision by people who definitely should have known better.
In the old days when the relevant business application was written, hosted and supported in house there was a clear chain of responsibility I could pick up the phone and I'd have a direct line to the person who "owned" the application.
Nowadays if there is a problem it's pick up the phone talk to helpdesk get assigned a ticket number and get the buck passed between different teams, The database team will blame the server team, server team will blame the networking team, networking team will reply to ticket with 'looks ok no problem on my end' and the ticket will get closed without resolution.
From what I can tell there are a bunch of incentives in the support contract around how quickly support can close out tickets, so rather than trying to fix the problem support try to do everything they can to farm the ticket off to someone else so it won't impact their metrics. The whole thing feels maddening and has to be rather inefficient.
I assure you that you're wrong. The SaaS I work for replaces a suite of independently re-invented Excel files used in conjunction with other SaaS. NHS trusts are our main customers, I can only assume the NHS is full of excel spreadsheets.
(Technically speaking PHE is not part of the NHS, it has more in common with the civil service in some ways.)
This is a management failure. PHE has capable coders. And if not, they could hire some.
The NHSX team has managed to write the dang COVID-19 app twice. Once not using the Apple/Google contact API (because management) and a second time properly. It’s all open source and it looks pretty decent.
This is very very far from the only project doing that but disappointing nonetheless given the amount of public money which was spent on it.
IMO, a much more likely scenario: a brittle, haphazard system was set up with extremely short notice at the start of everything. One administrative snafu led to another, ran into "well, it's working so let's not touch it", and we got to where we are today.
The real problem is if/when scope begins to increase these processes are sufficient until they aren't, and the tools aren't flexible enough to gracefully manage the transition.
That's a good point.
I'd also add that, at least in the US, we don't have any sort of national standard for such things.
Each public health department (and there are >1,000 of them in the US) has their own set of processes and procedures.
I'd expect that the CDC has a proper database system and that data from those 1000+ entities is collated into that system.
However, state and local laws/rules require specific handling of such data and can differ significantly from state to state, county to county or even town to town.
Attempting to stand up an integrated nationwide system isn't a bad idea. But doing so while trying to manage a pandemic isn't reasonable.
That many places used Excel spreadsheets for storing testing data is neither surprising or necessarily a bad thing. Until March, no one needed to have huge databases of test results -- now we do.
Complaining that places which had , at most, a few dozen cases of reportable infectious diseases should have implemented a database that can support thousands (tens of thousands?) of test results seems rather silly to me.
I didn't read the article posted until now, and I see it's about issues in the UK and not the US (I was confused, as we had issues with data reporting in the US as well).
My comment was focused on the decentralized US public health model and not on the UK's.
My apologies for injecting analysis of a different problem into this discussion. As such, my prior comment should probably be down-voted.
We’re not talking big data here. We’re talking about a finite number of possible test result from a finite set of testing locations grouped on a daily basis. Let’s say 1000 test locations, where each location has a daily number of tests performed divided into “positive”, “negative”, “inconclusive” and maybe a few other options. That’s ~5000 data points per day. Should not be any problem.
However, you need to properly plan ahead about how you design your spreadsheet, how to format the columns, how to keep it performant and how to not save it in some godawful 25 year old memory-dump dumpster fire of a file format...
And it doesn't help that there's a 25-year-old who says, "piqsqueal is outdated anyway, modern organizations use MonkeyDB and Hand Goop".
Contrast that to a database.
The first problem you run into is the limited number of people who actually have meaningful experience with databases. Databases ceased being consumer products about 20 years ago, so most people have only interacted with very limited front ends. They certainly haven't created a database, nor performed anything more than trivial queries. (Even then, they probably aren't thinking in terms of databases and queries.)
Okay then, we are reliant on a much smaller number of skilled database administrators and developers. Do their tools facilitate rapid development? Even if they do have access to suitable tools, the process is going to be slowed by communications between the people who need the analysis done and the people who can actually perform the analysis. Needless to say that Excel, with all of its limitations is starting to look like a good option.
> "But you wouldn't use XLS. Nobody would start with that."
Actually almost every non-technical person I know that wants something "database like" ends up in google sheets or excel first.
From the technical standpoint of a decent (and probably only decent) coder, I think Excel is an amazingly sensible choice for technical projects for a bunch of reasons. I think decent coders reach for the database solution far too often, and waste ungodly amounts of time setting it up. Excel coming bundled with an amazing front end UI you don't have to write code for shouldn't be ignored. Sure it's error prone, sure it's a nightmare for data validation, sure it doesn't scale to Amazon sizes, but this little project will never get that big. (Yes, until, of course, it does.)
I used Excel as the frontend for artists to author and enter small databases for a game engine, for example, and it was leaps and bounds better, and cheaper, and easier to use, than the unmaintainable SQL nightmare, with a bunch of frontend and backend dev on top of it, that the decent code who proceeded me left behind. Excel even scaled better, up to the size of our studio (hundreds of people), compared to the other system that needed technical artists to know how to use it. No question whether it would crumble if we were talking thousands of people or more. Which is why it happens so often. :P
Not if it was a bug in the code. 65k sounds suspiciously close to the limit of 16 bit unsigned int.
I'm guessing the exporter looked roughly like:
int exportRow( ... ) {
if( /* can't export or no more rows */ ) {
return 0;
}
/* export row */
return ++someInternalCounter;
}
void export( ... ) {
unsigned short nextRow = 0;
do {
nextRow = exportRow(...);
} while(nextRow > 0);
}
In the above example, the export would silently stop after 65k entries.The way people write C in the wild, this wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. And with Microsoft being all about backwards compatibility, Excel probably defers to some ancient and long forgotten code when exporting to XLS.
You can disable this message (per file basis), if for some reason you dont want to see it.
As far as I remember this message existed since Excel 2007 (which introduced .xlsx format), so the guy is simply lying.
e.g. some old versions of Crystal Reports can only do XLS. There must be loads old systems around that can only do XLS
Ugh - I still deal with clients who are creating brand new XLS and DOC files and expecting to have all the latest features (co-authoring when hosted in 365/SharePoint Online/OneDrive/Teams)...
At that time the was less information about 97-2003 file formats (OLE2-based), but it was fixed around 2008-2009: https://alexott.blogspot.com/search/label/file%20formats
Even the current version of Excel still inexplicably auto-converts long numerical strings to Scientific Notation.
...
“Oh nice! Exactly what I need!”
<copy>, <paste>
...
“Woah it builds! Ship it!”
I had someone come to me recently asking for some data "in an XLS". I asked them if they specifically need XLS or if they just need something that can be read by Excel. It was the latter, but they didn't know that there was a difference. To some people, XLS == Excel. Sort of like how TLS is still being referred to as SSL - somewhere in the world there is a developer being asked to use SSL for a new project because SSL == secure.
Microsoft PR was caught unprepared - I wonder how they'll re-spin it in the next few days (and for the first time that I can recall, a Microsoft product was wrongly blamed...)
Pay attention, how every time there's a Windows virus or worm, it's a "Computer Virus", but in the (extremely rare) occasions where Linux or MacOS is involved, it's attributed to that system. I don't think that's a coincidence, CMV.
I have personally tested an Excel based credit rating tool, to be rolled-out globally by a major financial institution.
The fact that one should not do this, is by no means a reason not to do it.
I once got spreadsheet dumped on me to debug because it wasn't working. A colleague used the spreadsheet to 'generate' interest rates that were then input into a mainframe. Dug into the VBA spaghetti mess, turns out this 15 year old script that took 15 minutes to run originally hit a bunch of Oracle/External APIs and performed calculations was now just copying the rates in from a csv file on a shared drive.
The error was caused by an excel formula ticking over a new year causing it to look for a directory it did not need to access that didn't exist. I thought it was pretty funny until I heard that the entire asset finance business had been unable to write any loans for days because of this.
From there it went downhill: Apparently someone up the hierarchy thought "Wow, that's 80% of what we need, let's just add a little UI and ship it"
They added a UI, but not as a VBA UI as you might hope. No, they did the whole UI in different worksheets. Storing any intermediate data ... also on worksheets. Long story short, it was a mess, and a slow one for that.
Oh, did I say this was a multi-lingual application?
Production rollout was on Jan 2nd, Dec 31st around 4pm I found a bug in the other language, on the one machine which had the this language configured. I believe this was the only time I ever saw a programmer literally run down the office to that machine to debug this issue.
Source: Got one of their engineers to show me after I heard about it and had to know if it was real.
Anyone who's ever worked with or in Japan knows just how far they are willing to torture Excel spreadsheets to get them to do anything and everything.
In the right hands Excel is pretty amazing.
It was one of my nicest testing gigs ever. A test session would take only minutes, all results documented to the t. And fiddling around with the test data was so easy. Would be interesting to know if this thing is still in use.
Not sure the customer liked it that much, I regression tested the 6 previous - still running - versions of the service, something no one had cared to do for years. We found bugs both in the Spec and in the Code for nearly all old versions...
That's an upgrade on how Toshiba did testing. They did basically the same thing except it was Excel+Humans. No joke. Never saw that one with my own eyes but a coworker did. He also said they had doctors there and each doctor was responsible for X number of staff and every so often made them fill out a questionnaire of which the final question was "have you thought about killing yourself lately?" and if you answered yes you got a day off. Apparently people would ask for transfers to different offices where the doctor responsible for them wasn't physically present, so they could avoid even being asked the question for fear of being made to take time off work. One of the more senior guys on the project kinda just disappeared too. Fun times.
"We need to store some data for a virus" "Where does the data come from?" "Every hospital sends us an excel sheet" "Well, let's merge all of it into a bigger sheet and display it or export it"
... six months later ...
"Hey um..."
you have no idea how right you are :)
Wasn't a bad choice, but once you load 20TB into it, you realize you done goofed.
You're not wrong, but...
I wish there were some alternative where we instead fixed our ossified, byzantine processes gradually over time, so that we didn't need to break out the sword arm tornado in the name of getting work done and then, in hindsight, say, "well, shame about the negative externalities, but there really just was no other way. Ah well, let's move on, everyone who isn't a pile of flesh and blood and bits on the floor tidy up. Gotta get everything clean for the next sword arm tornado."
If Excel is a sword tornado, it's one happening in an environment where everyone knows to be super vigilant about sharp objects. The alternative then would be a central processing factory that takes several years and millions of dollars to built, and which has to be turned off for a month several times a year, to change the shape of the blades used by the automated cutters.
I've found errors in every Excel spreadsheet I've ever looked at, and I'm not some master-excel user; I usually find them because - if I care about the results, I rewrite them as a Python script, so I get to go through everything.
The fact that Excel is effectively not auditable is a huge problem. There are a lot of dollars saved, like you said, but also many wasted or embezzled without anyone noticing in time because past a very low bar of complexity, it's really impossible to figure out what's happening without much, much work.
> If Excel is a sword tornado, it's one happening in an environment where everyone knows to be super vigilant about sharp objects.
... rather, no one is really careful, everyone gets a small cut every now and then, to which the apply a bandage and continue like nothing happened. And occasionally, they lose an eye or a limb or a head - and it is only those cases you read about in the newspapers.
I do not have a better suggestion, I'm afraid, but Excel is causing damage everywhere - e.g. [0], the subtitle - which I'm afraid is not an exaggeration, is "Sometimes it’s easier to rewrite genetics than update Excel"
[0] https://www.theverge.com/2020/8/6/21355674/human-genes-renam...
Time point 1: "We need a way to map the long-form epidemiology state. It's 2D data... Let's use Excel." "Will we hit limits?" "Pfft, no. Not unless we end up needing to track tens of thousands of patients, and that's not practical; we don't have enough people to do that tracking in the whole NHS."
Time point 2: "This pandemic is an URGENT problem. We need to hire more people than ever before to do tracing. And be sure to keep the epidemeology state mapper updated so it can drive the summary dashboards!"
It's lightweight, fast, portable, compatible, and just about everyone can use it regardless of (technical) skill.
I can imagine an automated process that appended to the CSV and then Excel saving back to that same file with the lines stripped.
I hope we can all agree that this is not the way Excel or any other software should behave, whether the user is incompetent or not.
PHE had set up an automatic process to pull this data together into Excel templates so that it could then be uploaded to a central system and made available to the NHS Test and Trace team as well as other government computer dashboards.
The problem is that the PHE developers picked an old file format to do this - known as XLS.
As a consequence, each template could handle only about 65,000 rows of data rather than the one million-plus rows that Excel is actually capable of.
They may have chosen XLS because they used Excel back when that was default, and now they don't want to "risk" anything by switching horses mid-stream.
The Guardian reported my version:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/05/how-excel-m...
CSV would to me make more sense than an outdated binary format like XLS, but either story is plausible.
It's been quoted/reported as "an ill-thought-out use of Excel", when in reality it's "poor use of an older file format".
There's also a lesson to be had here about validating your data conversions. Especially for critical things like this, it's always a good idea to perform the conversion from the old file format to the new one, and then to go back and extract the data from the new one to compare to the source data.
This can also find issues like Excel cluelessly assuming a field is a date, PHP automatically converting a string which happens to only contain numbers into an integer, and so on.
From what I can tell, that sort of thing, assuming proper monitoring (which is a huge assumption), would have detected this immediately (plus however long until someone notices the error e-mail, etc.).
This was absolutely a user error and the title "Excel: Why using Microsoft's tool caused Covid-19 results to be lost" is really disappointingly click-baity.
This reminds me of the below event which you can read the full story at https://leveragethoughts.substack.com/p/making-investment-de...
In 1976, the UK government, led by James Callaghan of the Labour, borrowed the sum of $3.9 billion from the International Monetary Fund. The granting of the loan was based on the condition that government fiscal deficit be slashed as a percentage of GDP.
A couple of years later, the chancellor of the exchequer at the time of the IMF loan said this below.
‘If we had had the right figures, we would never have needed to go for the loan”
That’s right!! The decision to borrow money from the IMF was based on wrong data. The public borrowing figures which prompted the UK government to seek IMF loan in 1976 were subsequently revised downwards sometime in the future.
The problem was a government still operating as though Britton Woods was in place five years after Nixon ended it
Then they're surprised when it all goes tits-up.
Heck, if they still need to export, they could do that from the data too.
Sure - use Excel for POC, but get that DB backend up pronto.
To consider your solution, first showstopper, it needs a server. We don't have a server, nor anyone who knows how to manage one. We'd need to ask IT, that will take months and they'll require a budget transfer, so we'd need to request it to management (which will need a business case to convince) and involve the finance guys. We can't just plug a RaspberryPi into the wall, not only that would get me fired, but also it wouldn't be able to connect to anything without the company's certificates for the proxy or whatever.
Second, we need people who can code in PHP (and their backups when they leave). Probably in practice we'd need IT to do that, so that's more months and budget required.
Obviously anything stored in the cloud is out of the question, just the authorizations and contracts to do that would take a year.
So in the end it ends up as a shared spreadsheet.
What we're talking about here is a government department who do have access to servers, but choose not to use them (or so it would seem).
Excel works enough for small data, particularly when you don't do complex queries on it. The more you know of it, the better it works. The only other thing that offers similar benefits to Excel but works as a database is MS Access, but the mental model behind it is too complex for your average office worker who wasn't trained in it, and like most database systems, requires a lot of up-front work with figuring out the schema, and doesn't particularly like the schema being modified later on.
As far as I can tell, there's literally nothing else out there. No, random SaaS webapps du jour don't count, because they're universally slow, and also store the data in the cloud, instead of the local drive.
Maybe helpful for people that don’t know... Xls excel has a 64k row limit. Newer xlsx has 1mm row limit.
Or maybe they were putting people in by columns and hit the 16.3k column limit?
One number the UK government doesn't release is how many people are tested. They have spent the summer championing "testing capacity", which we found out at the start of September was a lie. They release the number of tests done, and the number of people returning positive. They don't release the number of people done -- if you're tested twice, that counts as two on the number of tests, but one on the number of people.
For context, the Government publishes a stat for the number of people tested for the first time ever each week (used to be daily, but that was dropped in part due to people misusing it). Certain publications and politicians - starting I think with the Times - pushed the narrative that this was the real number of people being tested, and that the reason it was so far below the stated capacity was because the real capacity was far lower than the Government claims: https://archive.is/n3Yku This was bullshit on multiple levels - there are several important uses of testing, like routine screening of NHS frontline staff and hospital patients being admitted and discharged, that result in people being retested who've been tested at some point previously, and those obviously use actual testing capacity on people who haven't been tested that day or week. (Testing two samples from the same person in short succession, on the other hand, is unusual and not general policy.) Not only that, the people tested number is from pillar 1 and 2 testing in England only for the week ending the 2nd of September, whereas the capacity figure seems to be for all pillars in the entire UK at around the 12th or 13th. It makes absolutely no sense to compare them. And the cherry on the top is that I'm pretty sure this number is from before the problems with test shortages and testing delays that they're implying it explains.
The not-so-secret weekly report in question with the number of people tested for the first time is here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/nhs-test-and-trac...
So Excel isn't silently discarding data.
I suspect that wherever this foul up happened there wasn't someone sitting and clicking through sheets ignoring errors (I hope).
Oh? Like 65,535 or so? That seemed weird a first that even as old as xls is that only 16bits were allocated to max rows.
But then maybe not. Each row might get an ID, so that's 16bits * rows you have. I wonder if when XLS was designed they considered it very unlikely many people would have 500MB of db of empty rows and then would needed more data added to each one?
Simplified of course, I bet even original format had some explicit row identifier that could be shortened with optimizations and increment tags.
The reason the spreadsheets in the old format couldn’t grow was probably compatibility. The reason for the limit in the first place was probably about reducing memory on disk and in main memory.
It was a weird dual source of authority system, where the excel configuration was used at install / upgrade time, but you could change the config after the install at runtime. So you had to merge the active configuration into excel, upload the excel document to some server that customers didn't have access to that turned the excel file into a config file, then you could use that config file to upgrade the system.
It was as problematic as you could imagine, lost configuration, lots of macros, etc. Eventually they made some improvements, but I left the industry so don't know what the current status is.
Enterprise / Telecom solutions at their best.
IT ineptitude of the highest order, although I'm not surprised having been involved with government IT previously.
Who are "they"? The Government? GDS? PHE? NHS England? NHS Digital? NHSx?
"They" in this case was the UK Government, and part of the goal was creating secure backend systems specifically for the NHS as a data store, Public Health England would absolutely have access to it.
Even the most basic of checks at the start of the project would have highlighted that Excel was not a proper solution for the application (Even if the developer(s?) had used the newer(?!?) XLSX format rather than XLS) - which highlights that there was no proper oversight as to how the system was constructed.
The paper claimed that average real economic growth declines 0.1% when natonal debt rises to more than 90% of gross domestic product (GDP). When you correct the error it shows 2.2% average increase in economic growth.
Paul Ryan used it in the US for Republican budget proposal to cut spending and it was also used in EU to implement Austerity policy that hurt people.
Most such papers are used to support existing policy preferences, not drive them. In addition, the error didn't reverse or erase the correlation, it diminished it, and removed the inflection point from the curve.
> As Ken Rogoff himself puts it, "there's no question that the most significant vulnerability as we emerge from recession is the soaring government debt. It's very likely that will trigger the next crisis as governments have been stretched so wide."
https://web.archive.org/web/20100414205630/http://www.conser...
To summarize:
- The first two thirds of the video is a retelling of the story, the last third is an analysis of the data
- There are two problems in the original paper: a weird way of computing averages, and a mistake in their Excel file.
- There is a correlation, but it is weak (R2=0.04), and if there is an inflection point, it is around 30-40%, not 90%.
- That paper is likely to have been selected by politicians to support their policies instead of influencing them (confirmation bias).
Krugman [0] called it "surely the most influential economic analysis of recent years" and adds that it "quickly achieved almost sacred status among self-proclaimed guardians of fiscal responsibility; their tipping-point claim was treated not as a disputed hypothesis but as unquestioned fact."
However, indeed, he cautions that "the Reinhart-Rogoff fiasco needs to be seen in the broader context of austerity mania: the obviously intense desire of policy makers, politicians and pundits across the Western world to turn their backs on the unemployed and instead use the economic crisis as an excuse to slash social programs. What the Reinhart-Rogoff affair shows is the extent to which austerity has been sold on false pretenses."
I'd say the paper made it certainly easier for the Very Serious People[1] to push through their austerity agenda.
[0] https://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/19/opinion/krugman-the-excel...
[1] Krugman's derogatory term for duplicitous policy wonks (like Paul Ryan) that pretend to be thoughtful and serious and concerned about the nefarious long term effects of debt when discussing stimulus and spending and social programs, but then typically turn around and implement huge tax cuts without second thoughts...
The discussion here is not about economics. The discussion is about the impact of the (flawed) Reinhart-Rogoff paper, which one commenter thought was overstated.
> I don't think anyone should trust the content of an opinion piece [...]
Krugman is of the opinion that said paper had 1. a big (and 2. a deleterious) impact. For the first contention (which is, again, the pertinent topic), you don't have to rely on Krugman's expert assessment, though, you can look at the evidence: the infamous 90% inflection point had been quoted all over the place (as for example in the WaPo editorial cited by Krugman).
Lastly, what makes an article describing "the logic, motives, and rationales of ideological opponents" intrinsically untrustworthy?
Spoiler Alert: It was a SMALLINT error that was 'patched' by someone previously (legacy code) that worked around the bug by rounding account balances to the Million (since it was a reporting function rather than an accounting function it was a 'sort of ok' hack). The bug re-appeared as undefined behaviour when transaction and or account balances went in to the billions.
I have met several researchers using Excel, not R, Python, Julia, nope plain old Excel, eventually with some VBA macros.
The more savvy ones, eventually ask IT for VB installation when they outgrown the VBA capabilities and carry on from there with either small Windows Forms based utilities or Office AddIns.
Any attempt to replace those sheets with proper applications has gotten plenty of push back until we basically offered enough Excel like features on the new applications.
In a business sim class in college a couple of decades back, I discovered that the Lotus spreadsheets (as I said: a couple of decades back) had a totalling error which double-counted individual row totals in the bottom line (everything was twice as profitable as the spreadsheet indicated).
At an early gig, one of the senior developers instituted a practice of code walkthroughs on projects (only a subset of them). One of these involved, you guessed it, a spreadsheet (we used a number of other development tools for much of our work), in this case Excel. Again, numerous errors which substantively changed the outcome of the analysis. One of the walkthrough leader's observations was that you could replace all of the in-cell coding with a VBA macro making debugging far easier (all the code and data are separated and in one place each).
The particular analyst whose project this was: he insisted to the very end that this "wasn't a program" and he "wasn't a programmer" and that the walkthrough didn't apply to his situation. Despite the errors found and corrections made.
At the time (mid 1990s) the walkthrough lead turned up a paper from a researcher in Hawaii on the topic. I'm not certain it was Raymond Panko, but his 2008 paper (a revise of a 1998 work) discusses the matter in depth:
https://web.archive.org/web/20070617041554/panko.shidler.haw...
Apparently it's super common, which fills me with horror. But these guys managed to take it to 11 by abusing it in yet another novel way.
Trying to develop a budget to pay off debts, my partner made this elaborate Excel spreadsheet and the output was that basically she had no spending money and I had very little, until one or both of us got a raise. It was far more austere than either of us were willing to go. So I started over using a different equation for 'fairness', and a different layout because something about her tables was just confusing and messy. When I was done, we had $300 a month of extra spending money between the two of us, despite using the same targets for pay-down, savings and bills.
I spent about 90 minutes poking at her spreadsheet and mine looking for the error and never did find it. I don't know what the right solution is to this sort of problem, at least for non-developers. But if I was skeptical of Excel going in, I was doubly so after that. Especially for something that is going to be used to make decisions that will affect every day of your life.
Imperfect measures, but they keep the work within the grasp of everyday/business users in a way a formal test suite wouldn’t necessarily.
I expected worse news for myself after re-doing the numbers, and in fact I ended up with a little bit more spending money with the new numbers.
I mention this only because I have come to expect policy people to stick to their initial narrative a little more enthusiastically than I could. Getting them to review data and policy unless there is a clear benefit for themselves is difficult. It's very common for people to get promoted by challenging this friction in ways that benefit everyone (because the deciders couldn't connect the dots). It's always newsworthy, and I wish it weren't.
Excel, whether you like it or loathe it, is in such wide use around the world that $300 math errors would have been noticed a very long time ago. I could believe that there are still many lurking bugs with obscure corner cases, nasty floating point rounding minutiae and so on, but I would bet (checks spreadsheet) $300 that your mismatched results were solely due to your own failures.
Tack on that developers have other, better options, but if you're not a developer I don't have a good solution for you, and that I don't like that state of affairs.
Those happen all the time, we just only hear about it when the consequences are outsize.
There's nothing wrong with Excel. Build an organized spreadsheet with clear separation of data and presentation, and write checks throughout and you will end up with a perfectly error-free workbook.
1) X delivers tremendous value.
2) X has some significant problems.
3) X has no problems.
Obviously 1 and 3 are compatible. I claim 1 and 2 are also compatible (and, actually, not uncommon...).You said that "[t]here's nothing wrong with Excel", and someone responded with an example of a problem that they considered significant. If we read "there's nothing wrong with Excel" as a strong claim of 3, then that's obviously a refutation of your claim. You could argue that the specific problems are not actually significant enough to rise to the level of notice. You could argue that they are not, in fact, problems at all. You could argue that you didn't, in fact, mean to make claim 3 in any strong sense (which I think is what was actually going on here - that's valid, English works that way).
You've instead interpreted it as a flawed refutation of claim 1 (and took the opportunity to demean your conversation partner). I don't think that's productive.
Point being, all tools come with strange caveats that one needs to be familiar with. A nice feature of Excel is that the caveats are visible, because unlike writing code, Excel is reactive and interactive.
I mean, some of the stuff Excel does to your data is downright idiotic wrt. the common use cases, and probably exists only for the sake of backwards compatibility. But let's not pretend you don't need to pay attention if using a tool you're not proficient with.
Most other languages come with libraries for arbitrary precision arithmetic where people who know what they are doing^tm can get the right answers.
>A nice feature of Excel is that the caveats are visible, because unlike writing code, Excel is reactive and interactive.
Unlike any programming language I know I can change the results in excel by changing the presentation of the data.
Decades of experience working in Office Environments tells me many many many many many people do not pay attention period, their experience with the tool is irrelevant.
My experience also shows that inexperienced people do not know WHAT to look out for, especially in excel so they are often more susceptible to mistakes.
This really comes into play when working in larger organizations where excel workbooks are passed around from person to person, often existing for years or decades at a time where people using the workbook are separated from the person that created the workbook.
Try figuring out an excel spreadsheet created 10 years ago by people no longer with the company that several data links importing data from all over the place.....
Excel's idiosyncrasies are very much on the level of the typical productive computing tool. They are less maddening than half the featureset of C++, three quarters of the featureset of Javascript, and 110% of the featureset of bash.
Despite that, people manage to get work done using bandsaws, C++, Javascript, and the occasional shell script.
Store your data in a table ( https://www.contextures.com/xlExcelTable01.html ), then make a pivot table out of it.
You will never have problems with missing data.
In fact good practice is to add a check, just to see if your pivot table was refreshed and the data there matches the data in the source table. Just like you make tests in software.
In the same sense, one could say manual memory management in C can be messy and prone to mistakes, it doesn't mean that one believes C should never be used in any circumstance, and it doesn't mean one's trying to blame the C complier, libc or Dennis Ritchie for corrupting one's program.
Hypothetically, if someone writes the following reply.
> The C programming language, whether you like it or loathe it, is in such wide use around the world that a NULL pointer dereference would have been noticed a very long time ago. I could believe that there are still many lurking libc bugs with obscure corner cases, but I would bet the memory corruptions were solely due to your own failures.
It would completely miss the point.
There's some saying about never going to sea with two spreadsheets.
You use structure, design away the complexity, implement constraints, error checking and tests.
Note it's true that an inexperienced person is liable to make spaghetti code either way, but there's nothing fundamental about a spreadsheet format that makes it inherently unusable for a lot of small/medium problems. Indeed it even has benefits in terms of interactivity/ turn around/accessibility.
Of course, there's also a lot of problems with Excel and reasons not to use it like a database or anything which fundamentally relies on maintaining data integrity, and it's liable to be the first tool reached for by the non-experienced, who will generally make a mess of things large and complex as a rule.
I've never thought of Excel as an ideal tool for any of these things. I'm struggling to think of how it would have change-verifications/tests in the same way that software projects do.
(I'm certainly open to the possibility that I'm ignorant/unaware on this subject)
what you do is much closer to old-school low level programming. define the relationships between your tables and variables well, set up explicit corresponding arrays of 1s and 0s that are themselves error checks on the underlying structure/ contents of your tables, calculate things in two different spots/ways and verify equivalence holds, and use simple red/green conditional formatting to draw attention to when things fall outside of expected state, etc.
It's not automated but it can help future income/expenses/balance in an Excel-like UI.
> I started over using a different equation
I suppose it's possible I've discovered Dark Money but I doubt it.
Everyone who sees me paying for an app (I'm from India) ask me - "why can't you just use excel and do the same thing for free?". Excel sure is powerful, but in real life, your mileage may vary.
Apple/Claris FileMaker has had this niche for a bit, but it’s only been a niche,
Tools such as Excel or PowerPoint are almost "too good" as in they allowed users to come up with usage which aren't what the software was made for.
As others have said regarding Excel, it's not so much what it's capable of but what you do with it and how you do it.
I've seen people using Excel as a tool for trading, as an inventory database for a warehouse, as a shared database to track task progress, as a Gantt chart, as a calendar and so on.
PowerPoint is the same. Who hasn't been given a PPT file as a manual for something?
"Oh, it's all in the powerpoint".
Or been given the same kind of file to familiarize yourself about something at your (new) workplace. Issue is you rarely have any of the material the speaker used to present the whole thing so you're left wondering about the meaning of it all while reading bullet point lists...
No, a powerpoint is not a proper doc...
So in a way, I have to applaud MS as they did great with these but almost too great...
Oh. "Every" sales and business person probably would. Probably.
This is why people's email inboxes double as their TODO lists.
You can work in a department using Excel for this type of data collection and reporting, and you can continuously suggest to your superior that something more mature could be used. They would probably agree. As would the entire team!
But if the team of analysts are only properly trained in this system and it's all they know coupled with a huge backlog of cases and time pressures, then they're going to keep using the thing that causes least headaches in the short term. And that might be objectively worse to everyone involved but they just keep ploughing through.
Toxic culture, bad management, poor working practises and external pressures can force even the most sane of people to choose the worst technology on the basis that they perceive it as "saving time" in the short term, even when they know full well they're borrowing Peter to pay Paul, they still do it.
As is the case for many, Excel is one of my main tools. From financials to data gathering to electrical, mechanical or software engineering, Excel has always been there. It is fair to say I have made lots of money thanks to this tool.
And yet, every so often...
Many years ago a rounding error in a complex Excel tool we wrote to calculate coefficients for an FPGA-based polyphase FIR filter cost us a little over six months of debug time. I still remember the "eureka!" moment at two in the morning --while looking at the same data for the hundredth time in complete frustration-- when I realized we should have used "ROUNDUP()" rather than "ROUND()".
Most recently, I was working with a client who chose to build a massive Excel sheet to gather a bunch of relevant data. The person doing the work seems to think they know what they are doing (conditional formatting and filtering don't make you an expert). This poor spreadsheet has every color in the rainbow and a mess of formulas. It's impossible for anyone but the guy who created it to touch it.
Here's a hint:
Do not mix data with presentation. Where have we heard that before?
This is one of my pet peeves with Excel. If you need to gather a bunch of data, do it. Treat Excel like a database (apply normalization if you can!) and keep it with as little formatting as you possibly can. Then do all the formatting and calculations on a "Presentation" sheet or sheets. Just don't pollute your database with formatting.
EDIT: Thinking about the UK problem, if they were working with a ".xlsx" file and accidentally saved it in ".xls" form, well, as they say, "There's a warning dialog for that".
What surprises me the most about these kinds of incidents is that people keep working on the same single document. In other words, no semblance at all of what the software business knows as version control.
Decades ago I adopted the idea that storage is cheap and always getting cheaper. If I am working on something critical, I never work more than one day without a backup. I make a copy and continue editing. In most cases I make a new copy every single day.
Looking at the allReady repo, maybe it isn't a great example since it hasn't been touched in years...
If anyone's interested, here's the openly-licenced syllabus, in English and French: https://github.com/whythawk/data-wrangling-and-validation
Some on HN will definitely comes in with (x)Office Support MS Excel file as well etc.
There are trillion dollar worth of revenue relying on Excel. In the best case scenario, no one wants to work, rework, or even touch that Spreadsheet. Having 99% compatibility is not good enough.
https://training.talkpython.fm/courses/move-from-excel-to-py...
Instead, I just want to share this video from Joel Spolsky, aptly titled "You Suck at Excel".
Turns out, most people do suck at Excel. Myself included.
> As a consequence, each template could handle only about 65,000 rows of data rather than the one million-plus rows that Excel is actually capable of.
Why would they even use XLS in the first place? CSV files have no such limitation, you can have CSV files that hold billions of records.
Another one is abysmal failure of all simulation based models to be even close and useful.
(There is some sarcasm in this comment, but not that much)
a, extremely simple reporting with few workbooks
b, serious misuse of technology
Billion dollar companies were born based on replacing Excel in workflows. The problem is not that they have an old version, the real problem is that they use such a system in the critical path.
Using an Excel sheet as a database? In week 1, that would be "not great" but could be accepted as being a fast solution that everyone could work with. This far into a pandemic I think we can expect a little more professionalism in data handling.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_FrQnQv0Vw (probably an accurate depiction of what's going on in Whitehall right now, though)
Sure, we techy types prefer a proper database with a web frontend and an API, but that requires significantly more skill to build than an excel file.
No database has the flexibility and flat learning curve that excel has.
Until a database manages to meet these goals, it remains a good tool for certain usecases.
We as engineers should be working towards making a real database thats just as easy to use as excel, and only then can we complain that people are using excel sheets for this kind of stuff.
I know it's a pretty shitty program to use - excel is much more user friendly. If MS had made excel, but have all the features of access in it...
In PowerQuery & PowerPivot there are also no practical limits on the number of rows of data you can have (other than the impact on processing time, clearly hundreds of millions of records might start to be a problem). It's not quite access - it doesn't actually persist/store the data, just aggregates it from other sources which is probably what is required here.
Access is a little legacy and would have it's own issues. I think in reality it depends on how you are ingesting data (which is probably hospitals submitting excel templates or similar?). Maybe these could be automatically aggregated and put onto an analytics platform? (e.g. PowerBi). Hospitals could maybe report it on a portal, but I'm not convinced that the leadership would have wanted to change the established process (because of operational focus, change reduction & risk).
Weaknesses of Access in no particular order: very poor multi-user/multi-device-access features. No real concept of servers. Buggy, had a nasty habit of corrupting its custom file format causing data loss (Excel never does this). Does expect you to understand SQL, data normalisation, etc. VBA just about serviceable for a spreadsheet but not good enough for a 'real' database-backed app.
Probably someone could try and make a better Access. There are surely lots of startups doing that already, along with hosting. All the "no code" tools that are out there, etc. Access had the advantage of coming with Office so lots of people had it already, whereas today's subscription based services that host your data have incremental cost.
Base has very solid data storage foundations (including the ability to connect to real database servers) but the UI is very buggy and is painful to fight with. Note I said 'fight with' rather than 'use.'
Base seems to have a fair bit of potential, however, if someone where to pour some money and/or time into developing it further.
Test and Trace is a multi billion pound programme of work, involving huge companies (eg, Serco) interfacing with national governmental bodies (Public Health England).
We've had months to get something in place. One of the reasons organisations like Serco is used is their apparent expertise with IT.
(my one-step programme for improving UK public contracting would be that after a significant failed contract the contracting company and its directors and any other companies they are directors of would be banned from tendering for a period; maybe a couple of years?)
It also has a required certification for companies that work with the public that they weren't condemned for certain crimes (trafficking in illegal waste, extorsion, organized crime etc).
So, it doesn't seem an EU/Single Market rule that you can't check this.
Reasons vary but the ones I've seen are generally:
1. Complex procurement regulations that take a lot of effort to comply with by contractors.
2. Low willingness to pay (both price-wise and time-wise).
3. Civil servants are nightmare customers who don't know what they want and are under no pressure to figure it out, so there's a lot of timewasting involved.
4. PR nightmare if/when things go wrong even if it's not your fault, as government is relatively open compared to other types of customers so easier to find out about problems, and lots of people automatically blame the private sector in preference to blaming government employees due to (misguided) assumptions of moral superiority of the public sector.
Recently I was visiting hospital quite a bit (ante-natal) and witnessing the horror of the massive NHS form filling software the nurses and midwives have to use. It's clunky and sprawling but one of the main sins I think is it's lack of adaptability. In the old days of pen an paper, a new form could be written, or adapted, and photocopied easily, and on-site. Now if a new field needs to be added or a process is changed it needs to go (I imagine) to some centralised IT development office and fed into a ticketing system where it might get changed in a few weeks or months. There's no room to quickly adapt at a ground-level, so you end up with things like this excel sheet problem.
People working on Excel replacements need to remember about this aspect of spreadsheets too.
[1] they almost certainly are using fax somewhere.
[1] Japan's COVID-19 Reports - 140KBs of Unadulterated Incompetence https://stdio.sangwhan.com/wtf-japan-covid-19-report/
[2] The previous HN discussion https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22728674
How do you know it was Excel? I see no technical details in the posted article except "some files containing positive test results exceeded the maximum file size".
> The reason was apparently that the database is managed in Excel and the number of columns had reached the maximum.
You're meant to add additional records as rows! (Excel supports only 16,384 columns, but 1,048,576 rows.)
Actually, this was a pet peeve of mine: Especially in the early days of COVID, just about every official or unofficial data source was an absolute shitshow:
- Transposed data (new entries in columns)
- Pretty printed dates (instead of ISO 8601 or Excel format, or... anything even vaguely parseable by computer).
- US date formats mixed in with non-US date formats.
- Each day in a separate file, often with as little as 100 bytes per file. Thousands upon thousands of files.
- Random comments or annotations in numeric fields (preventing graphing the data).
We don't all need to be data scientists, or machine learning wizards, or quantum computing gods.
But come on. This is the most basic, data entry clerk level Excel 101 stuff. Trivial, basic stuff.
Put rows in rows.
Don't mix random notes into columns you might want to sum or graph.
Don't mix units.
Have headers.
Use a sane date format.
That is all.
</rant>
Or else it wouldn't explain why it took so many days to realize that they couldn't add more columns.
And then the same people wondered why things based on this file didn't work.
ie a csv is equivalent to Excel at the Daily Mail, so they printed Excel as the issue due to it being more familiar to their readership.
(Can't think of what the technical issue would be in the case of a csv, also doubt the credibility of the source!)
I still haven't seen an authoritative source, or one that predates that comment.
But it definitely sounds possible.
I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic or not, but in case you're not, this has meant c.16k people missed from having their contacts traced. That's time-critical. Delays of any number of days are very bad. People will likely die because of this error.
This is safety-critical software. It should be stress tested and have sanity checks. It should be impossible for this to happen.
For something like this system, part of a track and trace system costing billions, to fail because of a file size error is just unbelievable.
That’s always true though if the virus is spreading exponentially (dunno whether it currently does in the UK).
Edit: oops, it seems they used columns for the cases and the ~16K column limit was hit when daily cases exceeded that.
Yes, anything-sql or whatever would be better, but deciding between putting all the data into sql by hand, or "uhm... i'll think of something and do it tomorrow", me, being lazy, I'd pick the second option,...
...until i'd get shamed on here. Maybe even a few days after.
It's not surprising that this reaches into government.
Even if your canonical database is done properly, there will be a clash here as soon as you share (or give anyone the ability to generate) CSV files that are too large for Excel.
Nope. They appointed Dido Harding to cough manage it, and Matt Hancock oversees it. That should tell you all you need to know. I wonder if they were running Excel 2007?
The article in question: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54387057
For me, I always feel like I'm living in some sort of parallel universe. Imagine living in a world where _you_, and a select group of others, know that there are better methods to drive a screw into a wall than punching it with your fist. However, 99% of people in the world punch screws into walls by hand, because they know how to use the only tool they have to hand (i.e. their hand). Their friends and neighbours do too. Their colleagues show them neat little tricks about how to fold your hand better to get the screw in with less pain, or more efficiently. The "proper" option -- drilling a pilot hole, using a self-tapping screw, understanding the difference between nails, bolts and screws, etc, or the concept of wall-plugs, is "too technical", "too complex", or requires "a large amount of infrastructure to fix a simple problem" [buying a drill & screwdriver, etc]. Sometimes people buy new walls with screws pre-installed because the thought of driving in those screws seems like an overwhelming technical burden.
You, and a group of similarly-minded nerds, understand just how stupid this is at times. You personally then spend the rest of your life watching people occasionally have horrific hand injuries from punching screws into walls and refusing the offer of screwdrivers. Others profit from selling vertical hard surfaces with a whole array of convenient screws pre-installed; or get employed teaching others the _very_ basics of screw-driving, or sell products containing all sorts of klunky hacks to cope with the fact that screws manually installed are at odd angles and tend to fall over randomly. The supplier of a popular brand of screwdrivers happens to be the world's largest screw manufacturer, but never seems to promote screwdrivers to people who currently punch them in with their fists. Instead, they sell them a subscription to screws, with the option for a very expensive pre-screwed wall-delivery service, built to your specification (that they call Dynamics for some reason…).
You, and a subset of your nerdy and educated friends recognise just how batshit insane the widespread use of punching-as-a-method-to-install-screws is, and occasionally laugh about it, mostly to distract yourself from the grim reality of buildings badly held together by punched-in-screws. Every so often a skyscraper-sized building collapses, [1] and it's realised in retrospect that the manually-driven-in-screws were not the right tool for the job. Still, people carry on banging in screws with their fists, and you increasingly realise that you have to -- somehow -- accept that in order to sleep at night without going insane.
[1] https://www.businessinsider.com/excel-partly-to-blame-for-tr...
You wouldn't (want to) believe how incredibly common that is.
Much easier for people to understand than shorter than civil engineer turned software developer in an engineering firm where I do data management, automation and application development for (mostly internal) clients to streamline business and engineering processes.
I doubt the current Excel which MS spends billions on would not be opening data if the XLS is over the 'size' limit but a valid format.
I guess MS hate is easier than thinking about software and logic and being a better programmer and stuff.
As a consequence, each template could handle only about 65,000 rows of data rather than the one million-plus rows that Excel is actually capable of."
"Experience is the name everyone gives to their mistakes" --Oscar
The real horrors of Excel come from things like auto-conversion of column data (text, numbers to dates etc), off-by-one errors in copy and paste, overwriting forumlas in cells, sorting of columns that doesn't capture all the rows, etc. These are all problems that are engineered into the user interface of Excel. It's like putting a tripwire at the top of your stairs and just expecting people to step over it day in and day out. It's basically inevitable somebody will fall down the stairs.
When I was in school (early 2000's) our GCSE computing lessons were, more or less, "Here's Microsoft Word, today we will learn how to format a letter!" or "Here's Microsoft Excel, today we will learn how to create a chart!".
The only upside to taking the class was that our school managed to identify the kids who were obviously computer literate and we got to go on a tour of Microsoft's UK headquarters...
That's not saying Excel is the best way to store data, but it gets a lot of jobs done without multiple month delays that come with an IT project. Often times, waiting 2 weeks because they're already busy then spending another 2 weeks outlining requirements is categorically unacceptable to accomplish the business goals.
If that sounds insane, I assure you that is a simplified version of what happens in some systems.
Haha. This would be funny if it wasn’t so abjectly false.
Unfortunately Excel is the great swiss army knife of software and it's hard to avoid.
Microsoft Access sits there, but nobody uses it for some reason.
Worth remembering is that Excel is, fundamentally, a 2D functional reactive programming REPL. Most of its users don't understand that, but they internalize the behavior. They may not know what a DAG is, but they know that updating cells will recalculate cells that depended on them. So you can't replace Excel with just a database - because half of the utility of the program is in formulas.
There is a gap - a tool is missing that would offer the flexibility, the ergonomics, and FRP capabilities of Excel, while also providing tools for ensuring data consistency and relational queries, and at the same time also making them easy for users to wield. It's a tall order.
The project failed spectacularly if you were wondering.
> The problems are believed to have arisen when labs sent in their results using CSV files, which have no limits on size. But PHE then imported the results into Excel, where documents have a limit of just over a million lines.
> The technical issue has now been resolved by splitting the Excel files into batches.
PHE had set up an automatic process to pull this data together into Excel templates so that it could then be uploaded to a central system and made available to the NHS Test and Trace team as well as other government computer dashboards.
The problem is that the PHE developers picked an old file format to do this - known as XLS.
As a consequence, each template could handle only about 65,000 rows of data rather than the one million-plus rows that Excel is actually capable of.
[0] https://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/19/opinion/krugman-the-excel...
> "She is a former chief executive of the TalkTalk Group where she faced calls for her to resign after a cyber attack revealed the details of 4 million customers. A member of the Conservative Party, Harding is married to Conservative Party Member of Parliament John Penrose and is a friend of former Prime Minister David Cameron. Harding was appointed as a Member of the House of Lords by Cameron in 2014. She holds a board position at the Jockey Club, which is responsible for several major horse-racing events including the Cheltenham Festival. "
> "In May 2020, Harding was appointed by Health Secretary Matt Hancock to head NHS Test and Trace, established to track and help prevent the spread of COVID-19 in England. In August 2020, after it was announced Public Health England was to be abolished, Harding was appointed interim chair of the new National Institute for Health Protection, an appointment that was criticised by health experts as she did not have a background in healthcare."
As the NY Times said yesterday, sometimes it feels like "Britain is operating without adult supervision".
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/people-want-to-know-wh...
Voters want less corruption, but their own tribalism leads them to unhelpful positions of "everyone is corrupt", "none of my tribe are corrupt", and sometimes both of those at once.
I'll point out that Matt Hancock is MP for Newmarket - a centre for horse racing and associated businesses.
Panorama - Test and Track Exposed:
> "Panorama hears from whistleblowers working inside the government’s new coronavirus tracking system. They are so concerned about NHS Test and Trace that they are speaking out to reveal chaos, technical problems, confusion, wasted resources and a system that does not appear to them to be working. The programme also hears from local public health teams who say they have largely been ignored by the government in favour of the private companies hired to run the new centralised tracking system. As Panorama investigates, it has left some local authorities questioning whether local lockdowns could have been handled better or avoided altogether."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000n1xp/panorama-test...
In other news, I'm looking forward to hearing about how a system apparently hacked together from text files and decades-old Excel formats is complying with basic data protection principles, given that it's being used to process sensitive personal data and has profound implications for both public health and now (since violating an instruction from their people to self-isolate has just been made a criminal offence) individual liberty for huge numbers of people.
(PHE = Public Health England)
Analysis by Leo Kelion, Technology desk editor -----------------------------------------------
The BBC has confirmed the missing Covid-19 test data was caused by the ill-thought-out use of Microsoft's Excel software. Furthermore, PHE was to blame, rather than a third-party contractor.
The issue was caused by the way the agency brought together logs produced by the commercial firms paid to carry out swab tests for the virus.
They filed their results in the form of text-based lists, without issue.
PHE had set up an automatic process to pull this data together into Excel templates so that it could then be uploaded to a central system and made available to the NHS Test and Trace team as well as other government computer dashboards.
The problem is that the PHE developers picked an old file format to do this - known as XLS.
As a consequence, each template could handle only about 65,000 rows of data rather than the one million-plus rows that Excel is actually capable of.
And since each test result created several rows of data, in practice it meant that each template was limited to about 1,400 cases. When that total was reached, further cases were simply left off.
Until last week, there were not enough test results being generated by private labs for this to have been a problem - PHE is confident that test results were not previously missed because of this issue.
And in its defence, the agency would note that it caught most of the cases within a day or two of the records slipping through its net.
To handle the problem, PHE is now breaking down the data into smaller batches to create a larger number of Excel templates in order to make sure none hit their cap.
But insiders acknowledge that their current clunky system needs to be replaced by something more advanced that does not involve Excel.
edit: also longer version by Leo here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54423988
More explanation here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24690286
It's such a British government thing to do too (I worked for Syntegra when I got out of uni).
No, it doesn't. Not the kind you'd teach in high school to help young people grow up and maintain a functioning democracy.
The pure maths course was mandatory, but for the applied side you had the choice of either mechanics or statistics. At the time I was much more interested in physics, and was considering it as a degree course but, even if I'd done that, statistics would have been far more useful to me.
I certainly wouldn't choose to drop geometry or calculus, but I've had many occasions to regret my choice of mechanics over statistics during the past two decades.
Remember that HN comments are an exercise in selection bias.
Presumably there's something you're teaching that we (in the UK) aren't, or more depth somewhere, but I don't know what it is. Our systems are quite different in that mathematics becomes optional after GCSEs (15-16yo) here, but statistics is taught from a far younger age than that, to that, and beyond for those that take A level(s) in mathematics. (As I recall there are six statistics A level modules total, S1-6, I think S1-2 are compulsory for a full A2 (vs. AS) mathematics qualification (which consists of six modules total). In order to do all six statistics modules one would at least take the second A level 'further mathematics', and probably (pun intended; unless statistics was a particular passion and the school allowed it) 'further additional'.
NB I quite liked that structure - there are 18 'modules' total (arranged in 'core', 'further pure', 'decision' (algorithms), 'statistics', and 'mechanics'. Three A levels total available (six modules each) or fewer and an AS (three). Which ones you want to do are almost entirely up to you if the school's big/lenient enough. IIRC you could even decide for yourself how to allocate the modules' grades across the number of A levels you were eligible for, e.g. if AC would be more beneficial to you than BB.
Some pretty animations in a lesson might be helpful.
Fire grows in a similar way.
I've seen people up in arms because of things like a workplace of 1000 people shut down because "only" 20 people tested positive one day.
What's the problem?
To people who don't understand exponential growth it seems like 1 in 50 people is a fuss about nothing.
To people who do understand, it's an early-warning signal which says 500 people will get it in weeks due to the confined workspace, if not stopped urgently. And they will infect 1000s in the surrounding community in the same timeframe.
(To anyone tempted to point out the published R isn't that high, local R is highly dependent on situation and who mixes with whom. In a confined workspace, especially with people moving around, it's higher than in the general population. This is why it's useful to teach clustering in addition to exponential growth.)
Oh god not this again.
The problem the world has right now is not a lack of understanding of what exponential growth means. Plenty of people understand that just fine. It's so easy to understand that there is even a simple ancient parable about it (of the Chinese Emperor and the chess board).
The problem is people who are obsessed with the concept of exponential growth even though "grows exponentially until everyone is infected" is not a real thing that happens with viruses, even though COVID-19 no more shows exponential growth than the sine wave does (sin roughly doubles at points), even though Farrs Law is all about how microbial diseases show S-curve type growth.
This leads to crazyness like the UK's chief medical officers going on TV and presenting a graph in which the last few data points are in decline, but with sudden endless exponential growth projected into the future, along with claims that "this isn't a prediction, but clearly, we have to take extreme action now because of exponential growth".
Observing exponential growth for a few days in a row does NOT mean endless growth until the whole world is infected. Growth rates can themselves change over time, and do. That's the thing people don't seem to understand.
Covid: Test error 'should never have happened' - Hancock
Please note this has been discussed quite a lot here today.
Eg.
https://hn.algolia.com/?query=follow-up%20by%3Adang&dateRang...
https://hn.algolia.com/?query=%22significant%20new%20informa...
Edit: just seen your other comment re merging, thanks.
Unless positive result files are more likely to exceed the file size limit than negative ones, of course, which I haven't heard suggested is the case.
Edit: Perhaps I should clarify that I'm not suggesting it isn't a cockup. I just don't see it as a massive scandal that renders the data useless - it just decreased the sample size. What particularly wound me up was a Radio 4 presenter this morning objecting to the guest (I missed the start, I'm not sure exactly who - a female public or civil servant) calling it a 'glitch'. ('Really?! Really! 16000 missing cases is a glitch?!') Well, yes. Glitches can have minor, severe, catastrophic, or no consequences.
Mostly it seems to be used for comparing differently populous countries.
Most people who had covid by August (which was at least 6%, or 4 million, in the UK according to antibody tests) caught it between start of February and end of April. That's at least 3.5 million over 90 days, or 40k a day on average. Peak was likely double, maybe even treble that, given lockdown on 23rd of March dramatically cut infections.
We're likely testing somewhere in the region of 50% of actual cases. There's the non-symptomatic cases where about equal to the number of symptomatic cases, so double the absolute number -- some with symptoms will refuse to be tested because they don't want to miss work, some without will be caught by contact tracing, those two groups probably cancel each other out.
As such I'd expect 50k/day to be the "March equivelent" - with doubling every 10 days that means another 2 or 3 weeks.
It's not just about absolute cases though. Cases have been doubling roughly every 10 days, as have deaths. Deaths lag cases by 2-3 weeks, so I'd expect deaths in 20 days to be continuing to double even if we all stayed in an isolated booth from now.
Ultimately the concern is we're heading into flu season when hospitals are stretched, and cases, hospital admissions, and deaths are all increasing.
Hopefully flu season will be milder due to social distancing and due to more vulnerable people having been killed off, but either way we need to get a grip soon. Or just abandon any pretense of trying to stop its spread.