8,461 karma · joined July 13, 2017
Save the animals. Nuke the data centers.
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Aug-2026 Update:
AI's are currently nearing PHD-level in math, and frontier labs may already be there with unreleased models. Given this, RSI now seems imminent. Meanwhile, we haven't solved the most basic safety or alignment problems, and we're seeing increasingly significant real-world AI-related security incidents.
I'd now put the probability of ASI* by year end at 20%. By end of next year I'd put this at 50%+. Really the only question worth asking at this point is what happens next? If we cannot make current AIs do what we want, then what happens when they're super intelligent?
Spend time with your family while you still can. These are the last months of normality.
* ASI as defined as AI which is superhuman across almost all intellectual tasks (99+%)
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P(doom) = 99% (Sept-2026) P(doom) = 98.9% (Aug-2026) P(doom) = 98.2% (July-2026) P(doom) = 98.2% (Jun-2026) P(doom) = 98.5% (May-2026) P(doom) = 98.8% (mid-April-2026) P(doom) = 98.7% (April-2026) P(doom) = 98.7% (March-2026) P(doom) = 98.5% (mid-Feb-2026) P(doom) = 97% (Feb-2026) P(doom) = 94% (Jan-2026) P(doom) = 93% (Dec-2025) P(doom) = 95% (July-2025)
Where P(doom) equals the risk of global civilisation collapse or worse as a result of AI by 2050, assuming no other doom events occur within that period.
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My opinions become more reasonable with time.