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kpommerenke

156 karma · joined September 6, 2010

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kpommerenke··on Bitcoin mining in the crypto crash: The mining companies’ creative accounting
If you sell a large quantity (whether regular selling or short selling), it will drive the price down. If you short sell before regular selling, it will drive the price down even before you start your regular selling. Any gain from short selling will be offset by the lower price you get from your regular selling.
kpommerenke··on The hyperinflation gallery
Taxpayers do not subsidize most mortgages in the US (with the exception of Ginnie Mae programs). Having a guarantee against default and fixed interest rates are two different things.

Government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac guarantee conforming mortgages that they securitize against default. They might ultimately be backed by the US Treasury and thus US taxpayers (if not in theory, then in practice).

However, when inflation is high, the burden on the borrower of paying off their fixed-rate mortgage goes down (as their income increases faster over time). Therefore, the borrowers are less likely to default during high inflation. Thus, having the GSEs guarantee these mortgages is not a subsidy that protects middle class borrowers from inflation. High inflation essentially eliminates the need for the guarantee by itself.

kpommerenke··on The hyperinflation gallery
A mortgage with a fixed interest rate and no prepayment penalty is no subsidized since the borrower pays for the option to prepay the mortgage with a higher interest rates than they would be able to get if they were not able to prepay the loan. The market prices in the value of the call option.
kpommerenke··on Musk announces funding secured for Twitter buy
A tender offer is a means of building a large stake, so the poison pill would still be active. Therefore, he will not launch a tender offer.
kpommerenke··on BP quits Russia in up to $25B hit after Ukraine invasion
The oil rig was owned by Transocean, but leased by BP.

"In September 2014, a U.S. District Court judge ruled that BP was primarily responsible for the oil spill because of its gross negligence and reckless conduct. In April 2016, BP agreed to pay $20.8 billion in fines, the largest corporate settlement in United States history."

[1] https://www.britannica.com/event/Deepwater-Horizon-oil-spill

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deepwater_Horizon_oil_spill

kpommerenke··on List of U.S. states and territories by net migration
California has about 39 million people: https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/CA
kpommerenke··on A year on, GameStop champion Roaring Kitty is quiet, yet much richer
> Price discovery is broken when large market participants and market makers have access to mechanisms that enable unlimited shorting.

Actually, it's the other way round: you can only have accurate price discovery if people can take both long (buy) and short positions (short sell). If shorting is restricted, price discovery is much less likely, since only current owners of the shares can sell them. That's like only allowing current owners of the shares to buy more of them.

kpommerenke··on Why Web3?
Why do I need to own the copyright to mint an NFT of the image?
kpommerenke··on A terrible schema from a clueless programmer
While the article is not really about the database schema, could you do a table with just two fields?

1) hash of concat(ip & helo & m_from & m_to) 2) time

kpommerenke··on US Series I Savings Bonds Now Yielding 7.12%
It should be A = P(1 + r)^t because of compounding.
kpommerenke··on YouTube deletes rapper's 'Let's Go Brandon' song claiming medical misinformation
Thank you for the links. I followed them and came to a different conclusion:

1) "The vaccination rate of a country is not correlated with its covid infection rate". From the article: "The lack of a meaningful association between percentage population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases is further exemplified, for instance, by comparison of Iceland and Portugal. Both countries have over 75% of their population fully vaccinated and have more COVID-19 cases per 1 million people than countries such as Vietnam and South Africa that have around 10% of their population fully vaccinated." You can interpret this as either the vaccine not working (unlikely) or that high-income countries such as Iceland and Portugal test a larger share of their population than low-income countries such as Vietnam and South Africa (very likely), thus confounding the relationship between vaccination levels and reported Covid cases.

2) "And after 3 months of being fully vaccinated, people are just as likely to spread the virus as unvaccinated people". From the article: "The risk of spreading the Delta infection soon after vaccination with that jab [Pfizer] was 42%, but increased to 58% with time." Your quote shows that the AstraZeneca vaccine loses effectiveness over time. However, the chance of an unvaccinated person passing on the virus is 67%, which is significantly higher than the 58% for a person who received the Pfizer vaccine.

kpommerenke··on Bitcoin miners in Abkhazia are causing blackouts in remote villages [video]
Yes, governments can take Bitcoin down: https://joekelly100.medium.com/how-to-kill-bitcoin-part-1-is...
kpommerenke··on Hertz, the original meme stock, is turning out to be worthless
Let's not talk about Bitcoin again.
kpommerenke··on Mars becomes the 2nd planet that has more computers running Linux than Windows
I had to look this up: Android is based on the Linux kernel.
kpommerenke··on MasterCard to open up network to cryptocurrencies
Moderate inflation is a feature, not a bug, due to sticky wages [1]. Without inflation you get longer lasting recessions and worse unemployment. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nominal_rigidity
kpommerenke··on Tesla buys $1.5B in Bitcoin, may accept it as payment in the future
Wouldn't that make inflation a regressive tax?
kpommerenke··on 23andMe to merge with VG Acquisition Corp. to become publicly-traded company
Once the SPAC has identified a company to buy, investors in the SPAC get a choice to either stay invested or get their money back with interest. So it's only a blank check initially, but not once it matters. Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-08/spac-m...
kpommerenke··on 23andMe to merge with VG Acquisition Corp. to become publicly-traded company
Once the SPAC has identified a company to buy, investors in the SPAC get a choice to either stay invested or get their money back with interest. So it's only a blank check initially, but not once it matters. Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-08/spac-m...
kpommerenke··on Blockchain, the Solution for Almost Nothing
> I don't trust the stock broker (intermediary) to hold my shares on my behalf. What if they go bankrupt? What if they are malicious and disappear with my money?

You don't have to trust the stock broker. If they go bankrupt or steal your money, you'll get it back through SIPC insurance (https://www.sipc.org/)

> I don't trust corporate executives to have my best interests.

You don't have to trust corporate executives to have your best interests at heart, only that they have their own best interests at heart: corporations pay executives with stocks and stock options, thus aligning incentives between executives and shareholders.

> I don't trust corporation revenue numbers because they are inflated by artificial currency supply and manipulation (e.g. corporations feeding off of debt-fueled shell companies to generate fake revenue).

You don't have to take corporate revenue numbers on trust, since they are audited. Yes, sometimes things slip through the audit, but you can just buy a well-diversified portfolio, such as an index fund, to largely eliminate the effect of outliers.

kpommerenke··on The economics of vending machines
The initial investment (and its associated cost of capital) is quite separate from economic (as opposed to accounting) depreciation: if you could get a valuable asset for free (doesn't matter how) whose market value falls every year thereafter, you have no initial investment and thus no cost of capital. However, you have economic depreciation. On the other hand, if you buy a valuable asset that maintains its value forever, you have a cost of capital, but no economic depreciation. In real life, you have both for most assets. As an aside: the financing cost of the initial investment is irrelevant. What matters is the opportunity cost: what profit (or return) could you have made by investing the money in a different asset of the same risk instead (which is the cost of capital)?
kpommerenke··on The economics of vending machines
It's not really $200k in income. That number ignores the initial investment (and thus its associated cost of capital) as well as the economic depreciation of the machines (since you have to replace them after, say, 25 years). As I calculated in a different comment, the actual economic profit is negative.
kpommerenke··on The economics of vending machines
Parent says "the free market should have squeezed profits to zero." Theory says that the free market should squeeze economic profits (not accounting profits) to zero. That has already happened: $500,000 (annual revenue for 2 people) - $250,000 (COGS: 50% of revenue) - $50,000 (commissions: 10% of revenue) = $200,000 (gross profit) - $62,500 (cost of capital: 5% of 250 * $5,000) - $50,000 (economic depreciation: 250 x $5,000/25) - $100,000 (cost of labor: 2 x $50,000, including benefits) = - $12,500 (economic profit)
kpommerenke··on Unix Wars (2000)
This page shows a nice chart of the GNU/Linux evolution: http://futurist.se/gldt/wp-content/uploads/11.10/gldt1110.sv...
kpommerenke··on Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet
Yes, but no one claims that the market is strong form efficient. The question is rather whether the U.S. stock and bond markets are weak form (prices include all past trading data) or semi-strong form efficient (prices include all publicly available information).
kpommerenke··on Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet
Well, there are (small) inefficiencies for everyone to exploit. For example, a stock is mispriced and you expect it to return an additional 1% when the mispricing disappears. The difference between an institutional investor and a retail investor is that the institutional investor can invest $100 million in the stock and make $1 million of profit, while a retail investor with $100,000 will make only $1,000. As a result, institutional investors can afford to spend a lot more money on research, hardware, data, etc. It's very hard to compete with that as a retail investor.
kpommerenke··on Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet
As industrialized countries age, there will be relative more people in retirement compared to people in their working years. As a result, the money being pulled out of the stock market will grow relative to the money being put into the market. That is one of the reasons that we shouldn't expect to see the same stock market returns as in the past.
kpommerenke··on Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3
Do you mean that Tesla is a higher beta stock? According to Yahoo Finance, its beta is actually only 0.33. Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/key-statistics?p=TSLA
kpommerenke··on Ask HN: Starting Your Own LLC?
If you register your LLC in a different state from where you live, you need to hire a Registered Agent in that state for legal reasons, which adds a bit of cost (about $100-200 per year) and some complexity.
kpommerenke··on Xcel Energy Says It Will Close Two Coal-Fired Power Plants a Decade Early
Germany has a population of 80 million people. The largest US state is California with 40 million people.
kpommerenke··on 42 percent of new cancer patients lose their life savings
Not true: Corruption: The USA ranks 16th (1 is best) out of 180 countries according to Transparency International: https://www.transparency.org/news/feature/corruption_percept... Free speech: If anything, there is too much free speech in the USA, as people can and do say all kinds of nonsense, starting at the very top.
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