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kennywinker

11,373 karma · joined December 27, 2010

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kennywinker··on Anthropic wants your thoughts on AI
Associate your advertising profile across the web with opinions about ai, check.

Gain ammo for regulatory capture from anti-ai sentiment, check.

Market research from pro ai people, check.

A bunch of new signups to fuel user numbers, check.

Advertising for their new survey product, check.

A bunch of new stolen training data, check.

Me participating in this scam? Uncheck.

kennywinker··on Nearly 200 people under observation after Irkutsk lab worker dies from plague
Please, send a google translate link where the majority of virologists in a country/language say the genetic evidence points to a lab leak.

I have no idea what “ whether there are still in service or not.” means

kennywinker··on Nearly 200 people under observation after Irkutsk lab worker dies from plague
> And I always felt like this.

Hence you looked for evidence that matched and dismissed evidence that doesn't match.

Unless you can tell me that the majority of virologists agree it was a lab leak, I'm going to go with their majority opinion - which last I checked was that it couldn't possibly be a lab leak for specific genetic reasons.

kennywinker··on Understanding Frontier Artificial Intelligence
> In fact, AI is contributing to cutting edge understanding of gravity

After the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Navier%E2%80%93Stokes_priority... it's pretty hard to take stories like that at face value. There is ample motivation to bend the truth. Maybe it is what it looks like, maybe it isn't.

kennywinker··on Federal judge calls Flock 'indiscriminate mass surveillance'
The Wire was notoriously well reviewed by lawyers.

https://www.cato.org/blog/patriot-powers-roving-wiretaps

> For an ordinary non-roving wiretap, that means you show a judge the “nexus” between evidence of a crime and a particular “place” (a phone line, an e‑mail address, or a physical location you want to bug). You will often have a named target, but you don’t need one: If you have good evidence gang members are meeting in some location or routinely using a specific payphone to plan their crimes, you can get a warrant to bug it without necessarily knowing the names of the individuals who are going to show up. On the other hand, though, you do always need that criminal nexus: No bugging Tony Soprano’s AA meeting unless you have some reason to think he’s discussing his mob activity there. Since places and communications facilities may be used for both criminal and innocent persons, the officer monitoring the facility is only supposed to record what’s pertinent to the investigation.

kennywinker··on Run Qwen 3.8 Flash Next (125B) on consumer hardware (RTX 4090) at 100T/s
125b at q2 is ~80gb

27b at q4 is ~16gb

So from a raw amount of data, qwen3.8-flash-next wins easily. But flash-next is an MoE model, so it only has 6b parameters active per token, vs 27b's dense 27b per token. So 27b@q4 uses ~16gb of weights per token, and flash-next uses about 4gb of weights (125/80 * 6).

But those numbers don't really tell us anything useful, because there is an interplay between total model size and active parameters and intelligence that isn't obvious or simple.

(sizes are based on the unsloth quants, not the coder variant, but the idea holds - this isn't calculatable with simple math, you gotta test them and see)

kennywinker··on Run Qwen 3.8 Flash Next (125B) on consumer hardware (RTX 4090) at 100T/s
I'm sure one of those inference engines will add support for this within a month or so.
kennywinker··on Run Qwen 3.8 Flash Next (125B) on consumer hardware (RTX 4090) at 100T/s
Yeah, -10% accuracy (probably more like -20% in reality) sucks, but only if you could be running it at 100%.

That's the exciting part of this - before the best you could run on <24gb vram was qwen3.8-27b at q4 quantization. Now you can run a nerfed 125B parameter model on under $800 of hardware, and it beats a less-nerfed 27b model.

kennywinker··on Run Qwen 3.8 Flash Next (125B) on consumer hardware (RTX 4090) at 100T/s
It's not crazy to imagine something like that, but something's gotta change before it can happen.

Either the 5090 part - new hardware that's tuned for AI specifically. But we won't see that until the datacenter buildout collapses or finishes, since they are buying up all of TSMCs capacity.

Or perhaps it comes from the model. 1-2 years ago it would be inconceivable to use a 27b model for coding and expect any kind of usable results. Today, I have a model that feels like it crosses the threshold from a toy to a tool, and i can run it on dated pro-sumer hardware. I don't think we'll ever see SOTA on consumer hardware, but as the small models cross more and more thresholds the gap will matter less and less.

kennywinker··on Run Qwen 3.8 Flash Next (125B) on consumer hardware (RTX 4090) at 100T/s
There are options. If you have fast CPU RAM (ddr5) and PCIe bus you can run Qwen3.6-35b-a3b at good speeds+~100k context (I have a friend who is running this setup). If not, you're stuck with the much smaller models: Ling-3.0-tiny, Spark-X2.5-4B, LFM2.5 in 8b-a1b or 2.6b, and FrogNano-4B-2609 looks promising. But 6GB is a tough squeeze, 8gb is a lot cleaner, and if you have 12gb you can run strata like OP.
kennywinker··on Run Qwen 3.8 Flash Next (125B) on consumer hardware (RTX 4090) at 100T/s
Everyone's definition of usable is different, but I disagree with your estimation of the specs required to be useful. I am able to do useful coding on Qwen3.8-27b, with 100k context and 16gb VRAM, q8 cache. I feel I'm living right on the cusp... my GPU is old (2016, pascal), so to get usable speeds I have to drop to a Q2 quant - which still gets stuff done, but the difference with q4 is noticeable. Q3 is close enough I don't really notice the difference between it and Q4, but it's too slow on my system. More context would be nice, but it's not that hard to work within ~100k.
kennywinker··on Federal judge calls Flock 'indiscriminate mass surveillance'
Ok bud.
kennywinker··on Federal judge calls Flock 'indiscriminate mass surveillance'
Oh absolutely. Non-cloud cameras are far less prone to abuse. But to say you control the footage isn’t entirely true. For instance, if the government wanted to build a case against you for something you’ve done they didn't like…
kennywinker··on Federal judge calls Flock 'indiscriminate mass surveillance'
Weird, TV show hosts seem to be admissible as presidents.
kennywinker··on Federal judge calls Flock 'indiscriminate mass surveillance'
> What can make them suck is authorities abusing them to do enforce arbitrary, unpredictable ideals that are not part of the law,

That’s crime. Doesn’t make it into the stats tho

kennywinker··on Federal judge calls Flock 'indiscriminate mass surveillance'
Orthanc, but maybe we just go with “frodo but evil” https://theonion.com/creatively-tapped-out-peter-thiel-launc...
kennywinker··on Federal judge calls Flock 'indiscriminate mass surveillance'
> And I get to choose if I want to share that with them

Are you sure about that?

Not sure where you are what laws specifically apply, but I believe you could be compelled to hand over footage, and jailed for obstruction or destruction of evidence if you didn’t.

Just a thought - you may have less control than you think.

kennywinker··on Federal judge calls Flock 'indiscriminate mass surveillance'
> and we can't pay infinity taxes as an extortion racket, to prevent the bottom worst 2% of society from harming us, just because we refuse to lock them up out of misplaced empathy.

Instead let’s pay infinity taxes locking everyone up!

You won’t find me disagreeing there are some people who are going to commit crime no matter what - i will argue its a lot less than 2%, but whatever let’s go with 2%. What I arguing about is treating the other 98% of people like criminals in need of constant watching, rather than giving them the tools they need to succeed.

> The presence of cameras means a higher chance the perp will get identified and caught and locked up unable to harm another person

Defeated by a $0.15 surgical mask and some mud on the license plate. Meanwhile the gov corruption crime rate spikes because no whistleblower can speak to a journalist without being tracked.

kennywinker··on Federal judge calls Flock 'indiscriminate mass surveillance'
No, instead i turn around and say “there’s a flock camera on the street and a ring doorbell, i am surveilled wherever i go! No need to stab me!”

We’ve tried increasing surveillance and policing, it does not prevent people from being robbed and stabbed. Could we try funding social services now? We’ve never really done that.

kennywinker··on Federal judge calls Flock 'indiscriminate mass surveillance'
We found that by putting all humans in cages with no ability to contact eachother or interact with the outside world crime fell to almost zero.
kennywinker··on Federal judge calls Flock 'indiscriminate mass surveillance'
> For this case the guy was inside a phone booth rather than out in the open.

Is warrantless wiretapping of open-air payphones legal? Based on the TV show the wire, it's not.

kennywinker··on Federal judge calls Flock 'indiscriminate mass surveillance'
> The same way I can put a Ring camera on my door

If your door films the street, this is something that should be considered an invasion of your neighbour's privacy. The fact that it isn't is... disappointing.

Especially given the networked nature of those cameras. The police can access them by asking amazon permission, they don't need to ask you. Are you comfortable with that? I am not.

kennywinker··on Federal judge calls Flock 'indiscriminate mass surveillance'
Frankly, the TSAs security theater should not be taken as an example of reasonable gov behaviour.
kennywinker··on Federal judge calls Flock 'indiscriminate mass surveillance'
You need a warrant to tap somebody's phone.
kennywinker··on Federal judge calls Flock 'indiscriminate mass surveillance'
That is a technical solution to a problem that has a far cheaper, and less easily abused solution: don't put up cameras at all.

Building a system with "safeguards" in place that require constant oversight is destined for either regulatory capture of the oversight, or slow dismantling of the oversight.

E.g. warrants -> fisa court warrants -> Xkeyscore

kennywinker··on ADHD, autism or complex trauma? [pdf]
To be clear I wasn't trying to put words in your mouth, I was just using that as an example :)
kennywinker··on ADHD, autism or complex trauma? [pdf]
If you come up with one, I'm happy to use it - but we're comfortable with a lot of big umbrella categories: "car accident", "job", "conversation", "computer", "app", "injury", to name a few.
kennywinker··on ADHD, autism or complex trauma? [pdf]
> being stronger tends to sound better, even if it has other trade-offs, you know?

That feels like a tautology. From context, you've defined stronger to mean better. So of course in that case stronger is better. But in reality stronger isn't always better. If you come to a chess match being able to bench more than your opponent, are you better at chess than them?

If there are tradeoffs, and there are always tradeoffs, then you can't actually say stronger is better. The neglect of your parents might make you more independent and you might find that helps with your work life, while at the same time it makes your personal relationships harder. Which of those do you happen to value more?

Which is not to say you can't personally find value in and appreciate even the negative the experiences that made you who you are. But you can't say something like: neglect is good because it makes people stronger. It could be true for your life and what you value, but it's not objectively true.

kennywinker··on ADHD, autism or complex trauma? [pdf]
I don't disagree with that at all, but I do think that line of thinking about ones own issues can lead to a sort of self-blame - thinking things like: if I were stronger I wouldn't have been hurt by that neglect or mistreatment. No question, who you are has a huge impact on how something effects you, but nobody reacts well to e.g. neglect or mistreatment. I might end up with depression, while my sibling ends up with anxiety. That's our predisposition interacting with the objective reality, but neither outcome shifts the blame for the neglect or mistreatment to us. I know that's probably not what you were trying to say, but I do think that idea is one possible place downstream of what you are saying.
kennywinker··on ADHD, autism or complex trauma? [pdf]
For me, making a distinction between the big Trauma with a capital T and little trauma with a lowercase t has been helpful. Any experience that has a lasting negative impact on you could be considered a trauma, but only very extreme stuff - violence, sexual abuse - would count as Trauma.

A car accident is a car accident. Sometimes they are fatal, sometimes the paint gets scratched. People sometimes get long term health effects from a fender-bender.

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