111 karma · joined July 11, 2015
I'm considering ordering a new laptop, and am very sad to think that i won't be able to use its laptop/portable functionality, since more than 30 mins without a special keyboard results in pain.
Wouldn't the reverse be true in the US? Assume that actually supported China's radical opinions, while being subject to US jurisdiction - wouldn't they be forced out of business? Isn't that what's going on now?
> You can't choose to do something you're being forced to do, therefore if you do it, it wasn't your choice.
I then however realised that it would be a shame to let my advantage go to waste. So I use this:
> a lot of the monetary rewards
to partially motivate myself.
I guess the process you are talking about involves creating a new model which is able to account for the causal relationship for a larger set of observations, compared to the previous model. In this way, the previous model can be either flushed, or if the conditions under which it fails are known, we can use it for specific cases. Isn't physics prone to the same effect, only to a lesser frequency? Which might be worrisome, because if the opportunity to revise a model comes every 100 years, that might mean that you'll spend your whole life interpreting the world through an inferior model.
I really wish the author would expand more on this. Maybe due to my shallow knowledge of statistics, I've recently become baffled by the fact that an arbitrary number is used as a confidence interval, to state that something is true or false. And I'd guess most of today's world depends on these confidence intervals. Why is it that we're OK with stating that something is true, if it's true 95% of the time? Or is it the case of good enough, it it ain't broke, don't fix it (until it isn't)?
This is maybe me needing a refresher, but in what way does this make interpretation of the coefficients difficult?
I'd much rather side with Sims on this: Sims advocated VAR models as providing a theory-free method to estimate economic relationships, thus being an alternative to the "incredible identification restrictions" in structural models. [1]
I was also expecting a bit more material on Granger causality, as I remember using that as the final nail in testing predictive validity.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vector_autoregression#Applicat...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serif#Readability_and_legibili...
> Serifed fonts are widely used for body text because they are considered easier to read than sans-serif fonts in print. However, scientific study on this topic has been inconclusive.
A analogy which would make more sense, albeit still horrible would be: you feel pain in your arm, and decide to wait, until it gets so unbearable, that you see the doctor. The doctor asks you to try and think what could be the cause, and after some time and much thinking, you finally remember that you broke your arm that one time in the 3rd grade, but didn't go to the doctor, because it healed up itself.
Hence, you have a improperly resolved (cured) childhood trauma, that manifested itself after many years, without my immediate recollection of the root cause. In this case, I would only go to the doctor with the symptom. And, while there is one primary root cause, I'd need some pain relief to at least start thinking straight.