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ithinkinstereo

894 karma · joined June 12, 2016

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ithinkinstereo··on The death of the ‘Millionaire Next Door’ dream
Live below your means.

Max out you're tax-advantaged retirement accounts.

If you're young, invest a non-small portion into high-growth, "risk-on" assets, preferably in an industry you know a little bit about and can imagine where the trajectory of growth will lead to.

If you're staying put for the foreseeable future and don't mind limiting your optionality, consider buying a home (basically a 5x leveraged bet).

ithinkinstereo··on Ethereum just activated its ‘London’ hard fork
Centralization issues come along with liquid staking solutions like Lido.
ithinkinstereo··on Starting a crypto project
BSC is a Eth competitor by Binance.

Gas costs in ETH have been at historical highs, making it uneconomical for players under 5-6 figures of capital to do basic transactions, let alone yield-farm / manage positions, so various DeFi dApps have moved over to less congested chains like BSC and Solana.

Sure, lots of scam projects due to cheaper deployment costs (again low gas fees vs Eth), but legitimate projects too: see PancakeSwap, which started out as a Uni clone, but has arguable expanded to offer more / different set of features.

Speaking more broadly, yes, we're in a crazy bubble, but that's really the case across all asset classes at the moment due to rampant central bank printing. Scams are proliferating in equities too, see SPACS.

Not to trot out the "this time is different" meme, but unlike the '17/'18 cycle, you have far fewer whitepaper copy-pasta scam ICOs and way more legitimate projects; with real teams, real users, real use-cases. Plus, institutions are actually ape-ing in, so take that for what you will.

IMO pace of development and adoption will only accelerate from here on the back of an already "mature" internet and mobile ecosystem + generational familiarity/acceptance of digital value in the youth.

As someone who grew up during the transition from analog-digital, crypto gives me mega 90s/00s internet vibes, especially the feeling of inevitability around the DeFi space.

ithinkinstereo··on UberEats could be underpaying delivery drivers on 21% of trips
I recall some East-Bay based startup a few years ago that basically tried this model.

They allowed individuals to sell food / operate as a pop-up restaurant.

IIRC, it got closed down because of health and food-safety related regulations.

A more sustainable version of this business model is basically a food truck / cart.

ithinkinstereo··on UberEats could be underpaying delivery drivers on 21% of trips
It's getting harder and harder these days to get a good meal in the US for under $10 all-in w/ tax outside of rural super low COL areas.

In any of the major urban areas in the states, a $5 budget would limit you to various street foods (a couple of tacos, a banh mi, maybe a slice of pizza) or a couple of items from the dollar menu at the various fast food chains. Frankly, your typical airline meal is more filling and nutritious (but not as tasty, unless you're flying a middle eastern or flagship asian airline, of course).

A decent McDonald's meal for example, would blow up your $5 budget pretty easily.

ithinkinstereo··on How Chinese Officials Hijacked My Company
Because it’s a ridiculous rant that stereotypes an entire country and people based on one anecdote.

Plenty of entrepreneurs have been cheated / outplayed in the west in the same exact way. See the recent controversy about Amazon meeting with / investing in, startup companies for the purposes of stealing and cheating.

On a sidenote, wumao exists in the west too. And it’s just as sloppy.

See AMA from CIA Asset Rushan Abbas: https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/e9ad4n/i_am_rushan_ab...

Or this strange one from the Human Rights Watch China Director: https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/hwi7ub/i_am_soph...

ithinkinstereo··on Air travel’s sudden collapse will reshape a trillion-dollar industry
I wonder how much of this is offset by the increase in shipping volume due to the increase in ecommerce volume.
ithinkinstereo··on Wirecard files for insolvency after financial hole laid bare
See: Hin Leong Trading for a current example.
ithinkinstereo··on Navigating the Venture World as a Black VC
What? No, Asians are definitely not more privileged than Whites (in western society). You're conflating socioeconomics with race. And how do Asians have less historical baggage? Many Asian countries have a history of being colonialized and being exploited.
ithinkinstereo··on Dust in the Light
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulsa_race_massacre

There were no convictions for any of the charges related to violence. There were decades of silence about the terror, violence, and losses of this event. The riot was largely omitted from local, state, and national histories: "The Tulsa race riot of 1921 was rarely mentioned in history books, classrooms or even in private. Blacks and whites alike grew into middle age unaware of what had taken place." It was not recognized in the Tulsa Tribune feature of "Fifteen Years Ago Today" or "Twenty-five Years Ago Today". A 2017 report detailing the history of the Tulsa Fire Department from 1897 until the date of publication makes no mention of the 1921 fire.

ithinkinstereo··on April Unemployment Rate Rose to a Record 14.7%
It’s not “business as usual” in Sweden. Many are now questioning their approach.
ithinkinstereo··on Unicorn layoffs keep piling up
Here's the direct link to the xlsx file: https://www.edd.ca.gov/Jobs_and_Training/warn/WARN_Report.xl...

The data may not be too reflective of the current situation on the ground, however. From the website:

"Note: Executive Order N-31-20 (PDF) temporarily suspends the 60-day notice requirement in the WARN Act. Visit COVID-19: WARN FAQs for more information."

ithinkinstereo··on 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits
I went to my local 7-11 a couple of weeks ago to get some cash at the ATM. Next to it was a garbage bin for throwing away your receipt.

Out of curiosity, I went through about a dozen and not a single one had a balance above $1,000. Most were below $500.

There is little financial literacy in this country. Basic lessons about opening a bank account, the difference between checkings and savings, etc. is not something that is taught in K-12 nor in College. Let alone more "advanced" topics like 401Ks and IRAs and investing in the stock market.

ithinkinstereo··on Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus
> if the supply chain is indeed impacted

Is there any question? 80% of the Chinese workforce has been sitting on the sidelines since mid-January. Production is just barely ramping up and I don't think we'll see full capacity until well into April, provided that COVID19 is truly contained/managed.

Edit: not sure about the downvotes. Here's a source about Foxconn production: https://twitter.com/onlyyoontv/status/1234855310428430337

ithinkinstereo··on Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus
Most of the risks to the economy posed by COVID19 are supply side. How is a rate cute going to help? It seems like the main consequence of this in the near term is an increase in inflation.
ithinkinstereo··on Robinhood reports outage as markets rebound
Yep, fuddy-duddy tech = safe tech.
ithinkinstereo··on Robinhood reports outage as markets rebound
webull and thinkorswim will probably be the two biggest beneficiaries today.
ithinkinstereo··on Jeffrey Epstein's mystery bank came alive after his death
The details around his relationship with Les Wexner (billionaire owner of L Brands; Victoria's Secret, Bath and Body Works, etc.) are especially bizarre. Wexner gave Epstein power of attorney; basically granting control of all of his financial assets!
ithinkinstereo··on Tesla stock explodes higher again, topping $900 per share
The squeeze aint over yet; 22% of its float is short [1].

We may see this pop into the 1000s by the end of the week.

1. https://www.gurufocus.com/term/ShortPercentageOfFloat/NAS:TS...

ithinkinstereo··on China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen
Well, if we are to nitpick.... apples and oranges are both round!

Yes, there are certainly similarities between the USSR and China. But if we are to be objective and fact-oriented here, comparing China today to the USSR in the 80s and its response to this epidemic to the USSR's in Chernobyl, is a big stretch.

ithinkinstereo··on China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen
Maybe, maybe not. I think the contrast to past epidemics is stark and shows the government is willing to learn and improve.

In any case, the comparison to Chernobyl and 80s USSR is pretty off-base, wouldn't you agree?

ithinkinstereo··on China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen
That's true, but my point is that the "Emperor is far away" problems can be found in any type of governing model. Some may limit it, but even then, there are tradeoffs.

One advantage of a centralized top-down system is that when an issue becomes sufficiently prioritized at the top, everyone below falls in line. The primary advantage here is speed and the ability to see through long-term plans. You see this in China's rapid rise in certain industries/technologies, and of course, in their response to the 2019-nCoV epidemic.

> In a localized bottom-up system, politicians advance their career by currying favor with voters by distributing handouts, like farming subsidies, tax cuts or artificially low prices.

I agree with this statement, generally, but there are many exceptions. Speaking only about politicians the US, at a certain level, further career advancement is also very dependent on currying favor with superiors (sometimes, even more so than currying favor with constituents, especially if one has national and not just local ambitions). This is equally true at the national level--see: the internal politicking within the DNC and RNC in terms of fundraising, toeing the party line, etc. to receive endorsement and campaign funds--as it is at the local level--see: "machine" politics like in Chicago, where advancement is equally, if not more, predicated on currying favor with your local party leadership and senior city politicians than it is with voters. Or course, this problem (in the US, at least) might also just be the results of our two-party dominated system, where party-endorsements trumps almost everything else when it comes to getting votes. To your point though, this can be overcome if you curry enough favor with the local voters (Trump himself vis-a-vis the RNC is a good example of this).

ithinkinstereo··on China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen
The comparison to 80s/late-90s USSR is poor. I think this epidemic is showing the opposite, at least in terms of technical competence. The response from the central authorities has been massive and relatively well executed.

The comparison is also off because the day-to-day living situation on the ground (for the average citizen) is totally different from _both_ a political and economic perspective.

ithinkinstereo··on China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen
There's a Chinese saying that's apt here; "山高皇帝远" which literally translates into "mountains are high, the emperor is far away."

However, I disagree that this is solely unique to China. You see it in the west too. The water crisis in Flint, MI springs to mind.

ithinkinstereo··on Ukraine Boeing with 180 aboard comes down near Tehran
Here’s a NSFW video from twitter of the plane’s supposed last moments:

Footage of Ukrainian flight going down: https://mobile.twitter.com/mehrdadt1987/status/1214756444421...

From PPRune, these are supposedly pics of the crash site: https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1085x464/p...

Debris looks scattered which would indicate an in-flight breakup and would lend credence to the rumors spreading online that the plane was shot down.

Also of note: the plane was delayed by an hour and Tehran had icy conditions this morning. I wonder if the plane was de-iced prior to takeoff, or if it was de-iced, perhaps it wore off by the time it took off?

In any case this is all wild speculation; hopefully better details emerge soon.

This really reminds me of Iran Air 655 that was accidentally shot down by the US in ‘88. I hope this doesn’t lead to any further escalation of current tensions. RIP to all of those onboard.

ithinkinstereo··on Boeing Sales and Profits Plummet as 737 Max Crisis Continues
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Boeing_737_MAX_orders_...

In the US, you'll want to avoid Southwest, American, and United.

ithinkinstereo··on The voice from our Nest camera threatened to steal our baby
Yes, but that is a pedantic technicality that misses the point. Google markets Nest's ease-of-use and plug-and-play simplicity to non-tech users. That's a critical piece of the product's value proposition: that it just works and you don't have to think too much about it. For user security not to be a major design consideration from the onset seems extremely shortsighted... especially since this is an internet-connected camera that you're placing all over your home. Not thinking about security and privacy implications was Google's first failing. The second failing is its broken culture when it comes to customer support.
ithinkinstereo··on Uber lays off around 350 more across Eats, self-driving and other departments
Yes, I definitely agree.

If going the contractor route--and if the pay is six 000s+--I would highly recommend getting an LLC and all the great tax benefits that provides. Easily adds 5-10% (if not 20%+) to your bottom line.

ithinkinstereo··on Uber lays off around 350 more across Eats, self-driving and other departments
Perhaps. But obviously they'd want to make this appear as the "final" wave to not overly-agitate existing employees. It'll be interesting to see how this quarter's earnings go (especially since the lockup expires in Nov). If the market reacts poorly, expect additional cost cuts.
ithinkinstereo··on Uber lays off around 350 more across Eats, self-driving and other departments
1) No FTE associated taxes (payroll, unemployment, etc.)

2) No FTE associated benefits (health insurance, 401K, etc.)

3) Easier to terminate

4) (Arguably) Can grind harder

Hopefully, some of the recently laid-off employees can get re-hired as 1099-contractors. Sometimes working as a 1099 can actually be more lucrative (sometimes much more) than being a FTE.

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