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istultus

223 karma · joined September 29, 2018

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istultus··on MIT undergraduate admissions in the wake of the 2023 Supreme Court ruling
Not necessarily - if you assume there are more qualified entrants than there are seats available (as is true for MIT), then scores could be unchanged - e.g. there could be, say 200 students in line to get in, all have 1600 SAT scores, 100 are black/Hispanic; 100 are Asian/white. Now the question is what is your tie-breaker - the old tie-breaker was Affirmative action, so more of the former got in, the new tie-breaker is, say, volunteer work, and more of the latter qualify for that and get in
istultus··on Mike Lynch's co-defendant in fraud trial 'fatally struck' by car while jogging
Or, you know, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Lynch_(businessman)

(As it's better to read from the original source that the writer of the above piece used to write their piece, he said, not being sure if he were being snarky or honest)

istultus··on Ozempic is changing people's skin, say plastic surgeons
That's an interesting remark, considering this is most famous drug on the face of the Earth, and only has one brand name worldwide (in a different dosage it's called Wegovy, and when it's released as a pill it will be called Rybelsus). Its generic name is Semaglutide.
istultus··on 'Agua, Agua'
How long ago was the MS diagnosed? What other alternative practices have you done? Any of them for an appreciable time with consistent good results (or inversely bad results when stopping)?

May your good health continue!

istultus··on 'Agua, Agua'
They are literally our only (unwilling) test subjects... Not a representative cohort by any means
istultus··on 'Agua, Agua'
I'm sorry if you "sense a lack of open-mindedness" in my skepticism regarding Russian medicine. I'm actually very curious - I've water fasted myself. But I try to be rational, and tend to think anecdotal evidence shouldn't move my priors too much.
istultus··on 'Agua, Agua'
I'm sorry to hear about your MS - I can understand seeking whatever treatment might help, Did you do a pre/post MRI to compare the effect? (or whatever, CSF markers, OCT, what have you) How did you decide on the type and length of the fast? Have you tried water fasts beforehand? How long did you find a positive effect? Is the fast something that you plan on doing on continual schedule?
istultus··on 'Agua, Agua'
Can I ask what led you to doing this?

(And regardless - you usually aren't hungry during an extended water fast either - you do get physiological "pings" during your normal meal times. However, I would assume that if you're depriving yourself of water the body naturally overrides everything with signals for thirst)

istultus··on 'Agua, Agua'
From that site:

> Russian physicians have successfully treated many illnesses and diseases outside

> the standardized support of allopathic medicines, as well as more common

> ailments including, but not limited to, mental disorders, bronchial asthma,

> rheumatoid arthritis, hypertension, obesity and diabetes.

I guess the Gulag does cure everything...

(though to be fair, the part of the diseases mentioned that are due to metabolic disease - read: obesity - can be treated early in their course by just losing weight - diabetes and hypertension due to obesity will go away once you drop the weight. Just, you know, drink water if you're fasting. Or join the Darwin Awards, whatever).

istultus··on 'Agua, Agua'
It is incredibly dangerous, hypernatremia sadly occurs way too often in elderly patients in care homes where the patients are weak or mentally incapacitated and can't/don't ask for a drink of water and/or are ignored by their carers for long enough.
istultus··on Robin Warren, pathologist who rewrote the science on ulcers, has died
How is that a counterpoint? You're just presenting a rare case, like Zollinger-Ellison, or some genetic or physiologic Vagal over-stimulation. 80%+ of ulcers are caused by H. Pylori infection. Next largest group is misuse of NSAIDS (also the most common causes for pediatric ulcers). Why would a doctor not first test and treat the common things, rather than do an invasive procedure?
istultus··on How I swapped my ivory tower for the world of science fiction
The market (which I think is what you mean when you say "capitalism," a word devoid of content) is an abstract thing and indeed has no morals. Humans do. They act together to reduce harm, usually, given our arc of history. When humans form totalitarian "anti-capitalist" regimes they usually go about killing a few million other humans. Hurray for their superior morals.
istultus··on "The Door Problem" (2014)
Yep, and even this comic is now out of date, "identify a bird in the photo? easy!"
istultus··on Brain overgrowth dictates autism severity, new research suggests
I think there's a communication issue with regards to how a syndrome is portrayed in non-technical media. And it doesn't get any better when we replace "syndrome" with "condition" or "spectrum disorder" or what have you. A syndrome is just a description of what a black box looks like to us from the outside. We collect different outward expressions (symptoms) and give some sort of statistical baseline - e.g. a certain collection of symptoms clusters together in 70% of cases. In the case of psychological/neurological syndromes - our most poorly understood black boxes - we then create tests which are effectively subjective surveys, aggrandized Turing Tests. And to complete the picture, we also try to cluster with regard to treatment - assuming that if X modality treats Y cases well, those Y cases are all of the same syndrome.

All this is to say that while there might be one "source insult" that creates most of what we cluster as Autism, it is extremely unlikely. There are probably multiple different insults that create multiple conditions that we crudely cluster under the same Autistic umbrella. It is useless to try and define what is the "true" Autism - we need to understand the underlying mechanism first - maybe then we can give whatever we do understand better its own name.

As to why we are quick to label, I'll just say that in my country, as a child psychiatrist put it to me - before the mid-90s parents were angry with him when he made the autistic diagnosis, a trend that was then abruptly reversed and parents started to demand he label their neurodivergent kids autistic, even if he didn't find the diagnosis to be accurate. What changed? The country started to give disability benefits to parents with autistic children.

istultus··on Cis-lunar space and the security dilemma
I mean, in e.g. The Expanse, the future of tribal fights will be cis-Lunars vs. trans-Lunars and cis-Martians vs. trans-Martians...
istultus··on Parable of the Sofa
Let me posit an ad-hoc theory built on our anchoring bias in regards to price and our inability to think in terms of inflation/hyperbolic discounting:

tl;dr - Once a cheap alternative is on the market, us frugal folks can't imagine paying for what was once the default and only option, distorting our understanding of what constitutes good quality

* He says buying a new sofa of the same quality today would cost upwards of $5000, and he paid more than $3000 for it in 1999. He paid $1000 now to reupholster.

* Using US inflation data which is easier to access, $3000 in '99 is around $5600 today - so practically unchanged.

* What's changed? Since the emergence of cheap badly-built furniture, it now _feels_ profligate to spend $5000 on a sofa, when in 1999 it was (hypothetically) the only option.

* Instead people feel better buying a (say) $800 IKEA sofa every 5 years, which over 25 years is the $4000 nominal he has spent on his own sofa. It _feels_ much less painful to give IKEA $800 now than to give your local artisan sofa maker $5000. Who profits from that? You moreso than the local artisan.

* It's true that the middle has been hollowed out - I can't find a well-made $1500 sofa, but on the plus side the less affluent have access to cheap sofas, and the affluent but frugal whinge and buy a new sofa every few years.

I'm squarely in the frugal bracket, if not affluent...

istultus··on Meta caught an Israeli marketing firm running fake Facebook accounts
A drop in the ocean compared to the Russian, Chinese and the Pakistanis. Maybe this marketing firm don't have the requisite nous that those government-run bot shops have. The first rule is don't get caught, after all...
istultus··on Possible association between tattoos and lymphoma
As with everything it's a function of dose. A few molecules of soot entering the brain will trigger some cleanup and the glia cells will suck it up.

Breathing soot every day and caking your lungs with it over time raises your risk of cancer.

If our body was not built to handle homeopathic doses of toxins, we'd all be dead.

istultus··on Possible association between tattoos and lymphoma
Nice case of mood affiliation - "FDA bad therefore remember inverse of reality"

There was a swift ban on Thalidomide and the FDA went to the extreme of removing fertile women from all trials for the next 60 years, leading to 2nd order effects like Ambien car crashes.

istultus··on Top doctor remains brain cancer-free after a year
If it's clickbait - could just be a misreading on the part of the poster - it highlights an important fact - we all yearn to feel we have full control over a situation, even when in this case this sense of control is tenuous at best.
istultus··on Steve Albini has died
Just finished another boring run and asked myself "Why do I do this again?" then saw the news - dead at 61 due to heart attack. RIP. Scheduling my next boring run.
istultus··on Sweden has long opposed nuclear weapons, but once tried to build them
This case is a true unknown. There is an open question as to who carried out the bombing, with multiple intelligence services blaming Syria. the US decided to blame Gaddafi though, and he was happy to take the blame as it plays well to the "Arab street." The trials resulting from the bombing are considered show trials by some... just an unknown...
istultus··on Seattle shuts down gifted program for having too many white and Asian students
Ignoring the ideology - maybe, in a roundabout way, if this causes the middle-class and above to move their kids to private education in response, this will actually achieve its aims, in that the next time they sample gifted kids in public education, a larger percentage will be *ahem* "ethnically diverse"?
istultus··on Things I Learned from René Girard
I think Girard passes muster in that the theory is often useful, in conjunction with others - that is, it passes the "Condorcet barrier of utility" and one can use it as part of a toolbox to explicate certain human behaviors.

Taking it as a unified theory doesn't work, just as any -ism taken alone to explain the whole damn thing doesn't work and is often counterproductive. For example - and I would be grateful if someone with knowledge of Girard would explain it - how does one bridge the Underwear Gnomes reasoning of say #12 in the blog:

Step 1 - We point out how we all act out of mimicry

Step 2 - ???

Step 3 - We "escape the endless cycles of reciprocal violence by rising above our desire for vengeance and working instead to delegitimize the urge to punish and scapegoat."

istultus··on Daniel Kahneman has died
Maybe your (anyone's) system 1 might assume only two possible outcomes, but it's not in the question - it's which is more likely, and one option assuredly is, up to a less-than-or-equal sign.
istultus··on Why "Freakonomics" failed to transform economics
Ding Ding. With the added story Levitt told on Jon Hartley's podcast about the extremes Heckman went to, to disparage Levitt - translated into the terse Economist house style (which doesn't do justice to the utter toxicity of Chicago Economics...).
istultus··on Anonymous crypto wallets now illegal in the EU
Just a naive thought, but wouldn't this cause the second order effects of cyber criminals/con artists having a database of targets?
istultus··on Step by Step: Thinking through and beyond the repair manual
Just to point out the beauty of how a clearly defined black-and-white mathematical term (just use the dot product!) becomes malleable once it enters language as a metaphor. There's great humor in being "slightly orthogonal". (Hopefully this doesn't come off the wrong way - just my mostly useless degree in linguistics acting up again.)
istultus··on How the wrong side won at Boeing
It is, like many an intellectual technological innovation, currently the Churchillian "worst, except for all the other options."

Once a company is traded publicly, the market, over a long time horizon [1], usually gives a good value estimate to the company. In the short-run you have to contend with the different ways to juke the price, such as share buybacks just before the CEO is to get a bonus etc. Heck, even in Boeing's case, the market corrected for the stock price (especially if you consider inflation) once planes started falling out of the sky, and the company started to change. Now only doors are falling out of the sky! It's still a price we shouldn't be willing to pay for a market correction - and that's where efficient regulation comes into play, itself a very fraught tool to get right. All in all, we suck at forecasting, understanding, and learning from outlier events. Maybe it's an inherent problem.

[1] with the usual caveat that the market can remain irrational longer than the plane can remain airborne

istultus··on Airbnb's Devastating Effect on Canadian Housing
I mean, it's an article on gentrification and rise in housing market costs. I'm sure Airbnb adds some to the general price rises, but it surely is just a small part of the many factors that have led to this effect in most cities in the Western World over the past 30 years?
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