There’s also a huge lag factor. Decide to have a kid when you are 24, and that kid isn’t in kindergarten until you’re 30. A lot of personal growth & professional growth can happen in that timeframe, improving your circumstances.
At a national level, it’s hard to see how (assuming the country grows enough food and has other basic necessities) it is possible for the country to be “unable to afford” children, Baumol be damned.
There’s a difference between being tortured in the “to death” sense, and milder forms of suffering. Hunger pangs, mild sleep deprivation, pushing through exhaustion, mild hypothermia, etc are a form of suffering. But they are also something people are routinely willing to subject themselves to during sport.
I would like anesthesia for surgery, but I still participate in endurance sports…
This feels like such a commonly missed point. Any “enlightened” movement with a notion of not having kids will by definition extinguish itself in one generation.
I don’t see this as meaning ultra-traditionalists are bound to inherit- I think it’s more likely the discourse would revert to the mean, aka the centrists.
But it also applies at the national level. If country A consistently makes having kids miserable, then in the long arc of time, the way of life in country B (which makes family life great) will win out.
It’s more of a reality when home prices are over a million, or in a state with high property taxes. Be married, live in a state with low property taxes, buy a house for 700k… and you’re taking the standard.
We start talking about carve-outs and credits as loopholes when the use begins to violate the spirit. No one has figured out how to capture the electric car tax credit without meeting the spirit, so it’s not a loophole yet.
As an example if you ship a $3196 product in four packages, each valued at $799, you are following the letter of the law but not the spirit.
The affliction he’s imputing is born of absolute dominance over decades. Apple has never had the same level of dominance, and NVidia has only had it for two or three years.
It could possibly come to haunt NVidia or TSMC in decades to come.
Sounds like a tradeoff to me. Shorter neurons probably means fast operation and small size, but reduced regional and global connectivity. From the little I know about brains, this would imply things like reduced creativity.
Feels like it might be more practical to simply distribute phage therapy to a whole population targeting a known pathogen, like this year’s cold strain. Especially of the goal is just to reduce the use of antibiotics, not eliminate.
Ideally you shelve several antibiotics for decades, with the goal of bacteria dropping resistance to it. Sounds like a game theory compliance nightmare though.
As I look at it, rhetorically, when is the point for a US citizen where taking up arms against the US government seems less dangerous than business as usual? I’d say it’s still quite a ways off for most.
Could have performed accurately in their past usage, building trust. Sometimes it will also get something right that is downright shocking, far beyond what you hoped.
It’s not really about how the compute-intensive resources come to bear. You can draw a parallel to Moore’s law. Node advancement is one of the most expensive and cutting edge efforts by humanity today. But it’s also simultaneously true that software companies have succeeded or failed by betting for or against computers getting faster. There are famous examples of companies in the 80’s that designed software that was simply not usable on the computers on hand when the project began, but was incredible on the (much faster) computers of launch day.
The bitter lesson is very similar. In essence, when building on top of AI models, bet on the AI models getting much faster and more capable.
The bitter lesson would suggest eventually the LM agent will train itself, brute force, on something and extract the context itself. Perhaps it will scrape all your policy documents and figure out which ones are most recently dated.
I believe there are two main things holding it back. One is an impoverished execution model, which makes certain tasks difficult or impossible to do efficiently; GPUs … struggle when the workload is dynamic
This sacrifice is a purposeful cornerstone of what allows GPUs to be so high throughput in the first place.
It might just be their daily lives, but every single story has a memorable point, which is significant and distinct. “Shadowland” is a clear & more obvious example.
Some of the new shows, e.g. Bluey, do feel head and shoulders above the good shows from my childhood. I’ve abandoned using age of the content as any signal of quality.
Bluey isn’t just aware parents are watching, though. It’s not just cameos and a little sneaky grown up humor. It’s more like two stories, both compelling, are being told at the same time, depending on which character you identify most with.
It doesn't make any sense for it to depend on individual consumers
I’m trying to think of a single example where one of these “vote with your wallet” certification movements have ultimately triumphed and become the new norm… I can’t think of one. Organic might be the biggest success, but even then it’s just an alternative, not a consumer-preference-driven revolution in all commercial agriculture.
The energy of youth seems impossible to separate from the optimism. I suspect you could find enormous stamina in older folks for a goal that can rekindle their optimism.
Then why does the dwindling inner reserve seem to line up so neatly to completed objectives? E.g. you successfully emerge from the dark period, but are unwilling or unmotivated to grind through another. The end of a struggle is not usually conveniently timed to match your age.
Imagine there was a team that can take ordinary levels of talent and produce extraordinary results. If it could exist, this would be a great engineering organization, no?