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ifwinterco

1,536 karma · joined November 26, 2023

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ifwinterco··on Tutoring company tells parents to save their money and 'use AI instead'
They're not really getting a leg up though, it will bite them later in life.

Young adults are less competent and resilient than ever for exactly this reason

ifwinterco··on Netherlands bracing for potentially devastating US sanctions against the ICC
Guys like Ben Gvir and Smotrich talk pretty openly about it all the time, people just don't want to listen for some reason.

They're not and never have been our friends, they detest us

ifwinterco··on Winning the visa lottery
The data in the UK says GDP goes up, GDP per capita and salaries go down (which is exactly what you'd expect to happen from first principles...).

So the trade is your country gets (sort of) richer overall and the elites get richer while the average person gets poorer.

If you're okay with that outcome, then yes no need to worry about the data!

ifwinterco··on English: A vs. An
"He has toothache" or "he has a toothache" are both correct (and mean exactly the same thing), but "he has the toothache" is just wrong, at least in modern English (in the sense that no native speaker would say that)
ifwinterco··on The Hugging Face Hack Wasn't What It Was Cracked Up to Be
Yes I have ruled out stupidity in the past but I am actually starting to reconsider.

For example consider FTX: Sam Bankman Fried by all accounts was not stupid in the sense of lacking IQ or mental sharpness, quite the opposite.

However the way he ran FTX the company was very stupid and almost inevitably lead to huge problems.

And also... of course he was another effective altruist cult member. It's almost like that belief system directly causes bad decision making

ifwinterco··on EU chief opens door for Canada to become 'associate member'
This is only part of the question though, the other question is is it actually good for the EU to continue growing and becoming more heterogenous indefinitely, which to me isn't at all clear.

You could make a good case that the EU is still trying to deal with issues from the 2004 expansion for example. Doesn't mean it was a bad idea, but it's not cost free

ifwinterco··on EU chief opens door for Canada to become 'associate member'
That could be a european Nato though, doesn't mean you need literally one EU army
ifwinterco··on Most people prefer traditional architecture
The missing part is that traditional building used to be cheap (in fact the cheapest way of building things).

What changed is labour costs in western countries relative to the cost of materials and other physical things

ifwinterco··on XCancel service is suspended until further notice
I actually wish all social media companies would do this aggressively so I have no choice but to stop using social media
ifwinterco··on Nike exits the S&P 100 after 18 years and a $200B market-cap wipeout
New Balance were Dad shoes 10 years ago but somehow they are now fashionable in the UK (also Asics).

I'd literally never heard of Hoka or On in my life though before this thread and they do not look fashionable

ifwinterco··on Revolut confirms customer data breach through fake government requests
Yeah the secure thing is to ignore all requests from domains without DKIM, but that would mean ignoring a lot of legitimate requests which is illegal.

Revolut are known to be a bit shady but in this case they're damned if they do and damned if they don't

ifwinterco··on Revolut confirms customer data breach through fake government requests
Revolut are well known for using automated systems for all support and it being difficult/impossible to talk to an actual human
ifwinterco··on Why are AI agents lying, cheating and coordinating?
And there is a guardrail you can put in place that will guarantee this doesn't happen, which is to air gap the unaligned "cyber grade" model you're testing.

They don't seem to do that, which means either they are:

- very stupid (which seems unlikely, the one thing these people don't lack is IQ)

- very careless (possible, but these are the same people that say AI will end the world, so would you be careless?)

- they think they can only train/test these models by giving them access to the full internet and they accept the fact they'll end up hacking random people as the cost of doing business (but this also suggests they don't believe they're anywhere near AGI because if you were worried about that you wouldn't do this)

- or they want this to happen

ifwinterco··on Waymo pulls over, calls cops on juvenile riders who had 'ghost gun"
The london riots were sparked by the police shooting Mark Duggan for (allegedly, no good evidence) carrying a gun around in a taxi.

People do definitely use regular taxis to transport both drugs and weapons sometimes

ifwinterco··on Resistance Training Prescription for Muscle Function, Hypertrophy in Health
The modern way to progress to chin ups normally involves bands and eccentrics, but you can also just do partial reps (starting with the top of the movement) and gradually work on adding depth.

(This also avoids the stress on your elbows that can happen from the bottom of the rep if not controlled well.)

If you're quite far off starting with bodyweight inverted rows and working up in reps will train your arms and elbows in a very similar way from an easier position.

Anything "partial" gets a bad rep from people ego lifting with weights but it can be a legitimate way to work up to calisthenics exercises and saves fiddling around with bands

ifwinterco··on Larry Ellison to sell up to $7.5B worth of Oracle stock
Jenson already wisely cashed out a lot of his holdings a while ago
ifwinterco··on Growing proof that autonomous cars save lives
Best way to improve the behaviour of other drivers (at least in the UK): drive a van, ideally an unmarked one with a couple of dents already.

Miraculously everyone else suddenly learns how to drive and doesn't try anything stupid

ifwinterco··on iPhone Duo
Yep fundamentally different from back end because you don't control the client.

In theory the client can do literally anything (for example, someone could be using an ancient version or have some features voluntarily disabled) and you have to decide which things you're going to handle

ifwinterco··on Flights cancelled at UK airports due to ATC issue
It’s an absolute clown show that it was down for 4 hours, but would you want to be flying in some of the busiest airspace in the world on a “backup” ATC system that isn’t normally used?

Personally I would not

ifwinterco··on Flights cancelled at UK airports due to ATC issue
It's fine for fintech etc, but air traffic control software yes I imagine not so much.

Likely either outsourced or done by people who are comically underpaid considering how important it is

ifwinterco··on Mistral raises €3B
Yep same with latest Claude models - code isn't really any better than Opus 4.5/4.6, but use 5x as many tokens doing random stuff that's mostly unnecessary.

And yeah still for some reason they often can't understand how to set up any project locally without handholding, which is something you'd think an LLM would actually be good at

ifwinterco··on Mistral raises €3B
To be fair Opus 4.6 was genuinely a really good model when it came out, in fact I'm not sure Opus 5 is even any better.

It's definitely a lot slower, though

ifwinterco··on Isar Aerospace reaches orbit and deploys payloads on second flight
Should Europe also be controlled only by its indigenous population then?

(Don't actually answer that I don't want to start a big off topic discussion, just saying if we want to be logically consistent...)

ifwinterco··on Why are European countries moving their gold out of North America?
Again just run the numbers - full sun in summer vs cloudy day in the middle of winter even at only 40 degree latitude.

Output in the latter case will be under 10% of full power and probably under 5%.

It’s not bullshit it’s just physics, which is why the world looks like it does and not like the world you’re describing

ifwinterco··on Why are European countries moving their gold out of North America?
Batteries can solve short term (days to a week at most) storage problems, they don't solve seasonal storage problems - making sure you have enough energy all the way through a cold, not very sunny, and not consistently windy winter.

If you don't believe me, run the numbers of how many kg of lithium batteries China would need to supply an entire week of energy in the middle of winter (all energy, not just current electricity demand, because in this scenario we're assuming everything is 100% electrified).

Also if you're potentially going to be fighting a war, you need more energy, not less, and it's even more important for it to be reliable year-round.

This is why China is doing what they're doing, they're not idiots and they know that wishful thinking is not a strategy

ifwinterco··on Why are European countries moving their gold out of North America?
Batteries don't solve the storage problem, but surely you know this.

China is pursuing the strategy you're describing, but there's a reason they're also building nuclear, they're increasing LNG infrastructure, they haven't phased out coal, and they've built a huge amount of oil storage.

Solar and wind can be part of that strategy but it's not so simple, otherwise people would do it

ifwinterco··on Burnt out on a three-day week
I don't think you're unusual at all. The modern world is almost designed to make you crazy in some ways and makes it harder than it ideally would be to achieve these ideals (which is what they are, we're all human and none of us can achieve this all the time).

Unfortunately largely it is what it is and can't be changed, the only thing we can change is how we choose to respond to it

ifwinterco··on 'People are going to get screwed' Pennsylvania voters unite against data centres
Also Sam, Dario et al have constantly (like literally, every single week at least) been telling us that AI is going to make all of us unemployable and have to live on welfare.

Is it any wonder people hear that and go "hmm, no thanks" when the prospect of a massive whirring data centre next to their house is raised?

The SV LLM crowd know a lot about LLM psychology but seemingly very little about human psychology

ifwinterco··on Burnt out on a three-day week
Ultimately the common thread in most of these cases seems to be a lack of purpose and meaning in life in general, not really an issue with the specific work environment.

The purpose of life is to make meaningful human connections, become wiser, become a better person. This is something that some combination of family, traditional social structures and religion used to provide for a lot of people.

"Create shareholder value at my current startup" obviously isn't going to scratch that itch in the same way. It's no wonder people end up feeling "burnt out" - that's your brain telling you that what you're doing is ultimately pointless, and your brain is absolutely right.

Treat work first and foremost as a means to an end, not an end in itself, and generally you'll be happier. You can (and should) take pleasure from your craft and a job well done, but honestly who cares how your Series A goes.

"Work coaching" or whatever this article is advertising will probably not help you at all

ifwinterco··on VC isn't VC anymore
Hate to sound like a Marxist but... this is what happens when capital has this much power concentrated in so few people. Eventually the system eats itself.

If you're in the right elite at the right time though, you can make a lot of money while everything falls apart underneath

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