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howeyc

1,484 karma · joined September 22, 2011

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howeyc··on US 10-Year Breaches 5% as Inflation, Supply Worries Mount
Nope. Government debt has existed for a long time in the US. There is no plan to pay it off ever. Headlines will scream that the debt is too high for a long time to come.

Government debt yields on the short end are set by the Fed. Long yields are "set by the market" based on inflation fears, and mostly guessing what the Fed will set rates to over the next 10+ years.

Japan had way higher Debt-to-GDP for decades, yet the long term yields were low. Why? The central bank said "we anticipate yields to be set low for a long time" and did so for a long time. Recently they said they are going to "respond to inflation" like all other central banks and suprise, surprise the long end is creeping up. "Bond vigilantes" came into existence as soon as the central bank changed their policy.

howeyc··on Ask HN: Spending Tracking Tools
I just put everything in one file. Over 15 years worth of transactions in a single ledger file ordered by date.
howeyc··on Resolving a mysterious problem with find
if you want file names matching a pattern, no need for grep:

find . -name '*.py' -iname '*pattern*'

for filenames that have content matching pattern, no need for find:

grep -r --include '*.py' -l -i pattern .

no need for pipes, xargs, etc.

howeyc··on America's Space Force Is Preparing for the Risk of War
Easy, relax the requirements, and find work that isn't physically demanding. I'm sure there are a few "paper pushers" at the DoD.
howeyc··on America's Space Force Is Preparing for the Risk of War
A person with a gun shooting stuff isn't the only part of defense spending. I'm not sure if this is the point you were even making.
howeyc··on America's Space Force Is Preparing for the Risk of War
1. Federal min wage would be a good place to start.

2. Uh, the same as now? Just because you work for the government doesn't mean you earn min eage. I'm pretty sure Generals make more than $15k per year.

3. People that have jobs spend money in the economy to buy things. Private sector economy benefits from this.

4. You would have to do tasks to get paid. It's a job if you want it. Not forced. The idea is to curb unemployment.

howeyc··on America's Space Force Is Preparing for the Risk of War
US Defense spending is a US employment program. I really wish we would drop the pretense and just make it a full employment jobs program. Anyone that wants to work should be able to get a job.

The private sector can then get employees by paying above the minimum wage offered by the defense department job program.

howeyc··on Unrealized Gain Tax–A Coming Sea Change in FY2025 Budget Proposal?
I'm not talking about the economy failing. I'm talking prices. What do you think happens to asset prices when there are only sellers (everyone with wealth has to sell). You think poor people will have enough cash to keep prices up?

When Elon sold in his latest Tesla round the stock tanked 30% over a couple months. Repeat for Bezos, Gates, etc.

howeyc··on Unrealized Gain Tax–A Coming Sea Change in FY2025 Budget Proposal?
Imagine step 2 to realize the insanity. That household likely doesn't have disposable income that is greater than 25% of their unrealized cap gains, so what do they do?

1. Hope they can get a low interest loan to pay their taxes?

Or

2. Sell some assets. Think about what will happen to your 401k balance as wealthy people all over the US are forced to sell stocks. It will not be pretty.

howeyc··on Ly: Display Manager with Console UI
If you don't switch between window managers is there any point in having a DM?

Why not just login and run "sway" or "startx"

howeyc··on The Stripper Index: An unorthodox recession measurement
I think it has more to do with OnlyFans.
howeyc··on Anatomy of a credit card rewards program
Also doesn't need to be decentralized or an existing crypto currency to solve those issues.

For example, central banks are exploring smart contracts for international payments. https://www.bis.org/press/p240403.htm

howeyc··on The U.S. Government Will Soon Spend More on Interest Payments Than Defense
This is correct. Interest payments go into bank accounts. Some of that money gets spent into the economy, some stays and gets reinvested into more treasuries.

There's a reason real GDP growth is higher than it's usually been, money is being injected into the economy via interest payments.

howeyc··on The U.S. Government Will Soon Spend More on Interest Payments Than Defense
I said real wage growth.

You likely thought I said nominal wage growth.

Or maybe you learned something new today.

howeyc··on Ask HN: What is the current driver of tech layoffs?
Even though the annual government deficit is almost 7% of GDP, essentially injecting stimulus into the economy, wall st analysts are convinced high interest rates will cause a recession. CEOs have responded by slashing forecasts and employees to appease wall st.
howeyc··on Greedflation: Corporate profiteering 'significantly' boosted global prices,study
Because we all know corporations were keeping prices and profits low before COVID because it's good for PR. After COVID they said screw the PR let's be greedy now.
howeyc··on Choose your own IP
If I had to guess, it's probably the NAT hole-punching or use of tailscale servers as an intermediary.

If you signed up for a $5 VPS to forward packets you probably would have been fine.

howeyc··on Ripgrep is faster than grep, ag, Git grep, ucg, pt, sift (2016)
Thanks for mentioning this.

I think the killer feature is compatibility with existing grep command line switches. Not needing to learn a whole new set of options is quite nice.

howeyc··on Ask HN: Which DNS service do you use for your computer's network settings?
I use unbound, with a bunch of local IP/hostnames, then forward to mullavad dns for adblock.
howeyc··on French equality watchdog finds 90% of online pornography abuses women
In other news, French authorities have decided that Hollywood movies should be banned for displays of murder, which is against French law. The "contracts" of the actors is immaterial as murder is illegal in France.
howeyc··on Keystroke timing obfuscation added to ssh(1)
I would assume that doesn't work well for text editing.
howeyc··on Effect of Breakfast Skipping and Late Night Eating on BMI with Type 2 Diabetes
They defined late as 2 hours before bed. No consistency of when bed is across the group. Breakfast was 5am to 10am.

Looks like no control over food intake. For all we know, breakfast skippers might eat 2lbs of sugar for lunch in this study.

howeyc··on Effect of Breakfast Skipping and Late Night Eating on BMI with Type 2 Diabetes
They interviewed 310 ppl, calculated their BMI, then found out around half skip breakfast. That half had BMI a little higher than the rest.

No discussion of what they eat.

What a waste of time for everyone involved.

howeyc··on Oregon decriminalized hard drugs – early results aren’t encouraging
> "I have the right to harm myself if I choose"

Yes

howeyc··on Corporate profits account for almost half the increase in Europe’s inflation
I sell hammers for a 25% margin.

I buy hammers for $10, sell for $12.50. My supplier increases prices with inflation to $11. To keep my 25% markup, I sell for $13.75.

I sell 1 million hammers per year.

My profit went from 2.5 million to 2.75 million, an increase of 10%.

I doubt think the IMF is making this assumption, but a lot of people would see my hammer business as extracting all inflation to myself, as my profits rose 10%. However, selling 4 hammers nets me enough profit to buy one, both years. I'm not better off. I'm the same.

howeyc··on NHTSA: Car crashes cost Americans $340B
Looks like around 60% payout when discussing premium/payouts alone. Operating expenses eats into almost all the rest. Then they make money investing the float.

https://www.alphaquery.com/stock/AFL/fundamentals/annual/com...

howeyc··on FDIC Takes over Silicon Valley Bank
> As for money markets, don’t those get invested in treasury bills/notes anyway

Yeah, but the market price basically stays at $1 and whenever they "break the buck" it's a huge deal.

10 year loans "break the buck" so often that it's extremely strange SVB didn't do anything about it.

Basically they should have invested in securities that were safer and fluctuated less, but they got greedy chasing yield and got found out.

howeyc··on AWS Tape Gateway
Scaleway Glacier
howeyc··on Show HN: Pashword – Hashed Password Calculator
and how do you keep track of the counter for each website?
howeyc··on No Start Menu for You
This is exactly why I use OSS whenever possible. Once you've gone through all the trouble of the post, you can spend a little more time to submit a patch.
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