America's Space Force Is Preparing for the Risk of War
wsj.com
wsj.com
Every hundred kilometers of altitude increases orbital lifespan by about a factor of ten. AFAICT Elon voluntarily reduced his proposed orbital altitudes, apparently without any pressure from regulators, when it was recognized that debris from 20-year-old SpaceX satellites would likely destroy 1-year-old SpaceX satellites reliably enough to cost SpaceX debilitating amounts of money. Even at ~550km, the concerns are significant for a 10^5 satellite swarm.
Conversely, if we load up on SEP and fly a billion satellites (with a B) at 300km altitude, shooting each other with buckshot, it's safe to fly again in a very short period.
If we can't get some kind of international agreement on restricting mega-constellations to very low altitudes, with a quickness, and with a consensus strong enough to hold during wartime and in the face of competing profit interests, then the game is lost before we even begin.
Mid to Upper LEO is uniquely uncompromising to a race that refuses to cooperate with each other; A war up there would have qualities of MAD, but even a peacetime competition is sufficient to lock us out.
If you want to be really safe, you need to fly so low that you have to exert a few millinewtons of steady thrust to overcome inertia lost to atmospheric drag. The natural orbital lifespan is less millennia or centuries, and more months or weeks; this is what keeps debris out of your path and out of having significant figures in any exponential growth equations.
Ion thrusters can now do this continuously for a decade from quite small, inexpensive argon propellant tanks, and that sort of thing now flies on every Starlink satellite already for orbital adjustments, albeit with undersized propellant tanks.
Do this right, low enough, and you can run something like a global cellular network with a million nodes without even having to think about avoidance maneuvers. Fly too high with too many satellites, and no amount of avoidance maneuvers per day will be enough.
If you want to be conservative about human spaceflight, ban all large constellations above or at ISS altitude (or some arbitrary safety altitude); It's virtually impossible for debris to go higher, while all high debris will ultimately decay into lower debris.
From my point of view, the US (which just happens to be funding a genocide through a nuclear armed puppet state at the moment) looks no better than Russia and far better than China which at least tends to keep its authoritarianism to itself (harassment of Japanese fishing boats notwithstanding.) China today looks like what American domestic policy is becoming, and Russia today looks like American foreign policy in general.
And the political and cultural climate in the US has been creeping in an authoritarian direction for at least a decade. The US has a deeper and more invasive surveillance network than the Gestapo could ever have dreamed of. The US runs torture sites and a concentration camp where it detains enemies of the state under arbitrary duress without rights. American rights are nullified, arbitrarily, by an unelected and unaccountable panel of judges, and laws are arbitrarily enforced by a brutal militarized police force and government wholly insulated from consequence and the "will of the people."
Americans clutch their pearls over TikTok and Chinese influence while literally every form of media they consume is propaganda, much of it being openly fascist, designed to confuse, distract and scare them with fears of enemies within and without, or indoctrinate them into a pro-militarist ideology based on a corrupted and twisted view of the world and their own place in it.
The US is objectively authoritarian. You don't get to run the racket of Pax Americana without being an authoritarian regime, willing and able to commit violence abroad and able to quell any possible threat to the agenda at home.
I'm not saying the USA should demilitarize or that the Space Force shouldn't prepare for cataclysmic interstellar warfare.
For example, USA is a democratic, conquest-driven empire. While Russia is an authoritarian, conquest-driven empire. Living in democratic empires is usually nice for citizens in the metropolis (the USA), while it can be absolutely miserable for the conquered parts (millions killed in SE Asia in countries attacked by USA and its cronies, in Iraq etc.). While, in Russia’s case, life in the metropolis is only somewhat less miserable than in the conquered non-Russian-majority regions.
I disagree - in the details, at least :).
"Conquest" requires overwhelming military force, which of course the US has. What it lacks is the desire to annex "conquered" territory or to directly subjugate competitor nations.
I'd consider the US more of a modernized colonial power. The institutional goal of the US federal government seems to be to remake the world in its image, but to do so in a way that requires as little ongoing investment by them as possible. An example of this would be the concept of "regime change".
The US sees nations with incompatible types of political organization as almost defective. It believes that those nations would obviously organize as a representative republic if only given the chance to do so - in fact, it believes that representative republicanism is the only natural form of governance, which by extension means that any nation with an incompatible political structure is a nation that has been subjugated by outside forces. That's why we do things like invade Afghanistan, hang around for a decade or two, set up elections that mirror ours, and then leave... only for the Taliban to come right back, take power, and ultimately benefit from our involvement.
The older I get, the more I come to believe that some forms of governance - including representative republicanism - require a relatively well-educated populace that supports the concept. Lacking that, they revert to their previous state once US involvement withdraws.
That's good news for me, as I ultimately want to see my descendants living in a world without governments with a monopoly of the legitimization of violence. If countries that lean toward authoritarianism can be "transformed" into other forms only temporarily, that means the driving force behind a sustainable governance is ultimately not force, but culture. "Political change" must be a consequence of social/cultural change to be long-lived.
Curiously, one of the first laws that was forced upon Poland after joining the American world order in 1989 was intellectual property rights protection - i.e. making sure that people who back then were making 50 USD per month, will pay their tribute to Redmont and to Hollywood.
In literally every single scenario that was trialed, you ended up with a rapid escalation to nuclear war, and the complete extermination of the Northern Hemisphere. About half a billion died from the immediate nukes, the rest from starvation and nuclear fallout. These wargames are what caused US military policy with regards to the USSR to take a sharp turn towards de-escalation, and within a decade there'd be McDonalds and Donald Duck in the USSR, and the entire nation would collapse.
By contrast we went for force in Vietnam, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, and so on endlessly. And all outcomes have been catastrophic from not only a humanitarian point of view, but even from a morality-free geopolitical point of view. And those were conflicts with nations who were ostensibly incapable of fighting back.
Problem is the USA doesn't. You have one party that wants to abandon its partners and has no interest in supporting Freedom and Democracy and you have another party that is so hesitant and non committal that it only encourages authoritarian regimes. It is playing out around the entire world with North Korea, Iran, terrorists, Russia, China, etc.
Unfortunately the USA has no one who can project strength and decisiveness. Just look at what is happening with Ukraine, a good lesson that the West has no resolve or willingness to let Ukraine win and end the war. We're screwed until someone comes along that is right for the job ahead and unfortunately there are no good candidates currently.
This is my favorite post in this thread so far, because I don't know which party you're assigning to which side!
I by no means intend that as a slight, by the way. It's striking to me how easily statements with clear meaning to one person can be viewed in with completely opposite meaning by the "other" faction.
> Just look at what is happening with Ukraine, a good lesson that the West has no resolve or willingness to let Ukraine win and end the war.
I'll be a bit more specific about my own views for this part.
It seems to me that the Democratic Party vocally and fairly consistently supports Ukraine, but that their measured approach and desire not to escalate is only extending the conflict. Meanwhile, the Republican Party seems split on the issue, and their Presidential candidate rather milquetoast when it comes to setting a clear policy proposal in this specific case.
So, yeah - I'm about 70% sure you and I are on opposite sides politically for most issues, but if we constrain the topic to the Russo-Ukrainian war, there really isn't a clear preference for either party. The choices seem to be "incur significant additional debt to keep Ukraine in the fight, but not enough to end the war" and "hope Trump chooses to fully support Ukraine if elected, but not be sure if he will or not".
US politics have been depressing my entire life, but this election seems to be particularly unsatisfactory for everyone involved, regardless of faction.
I disagree with this analysis. All indicates are that a restored Trump administration (particularly with Vance on board) would steer Ukraine to a very severe compromise with Putin (i.e. recognized sovereignty for the Donbas + Crimea + likely then some).
They won't do so "in 24 hours" per Trump's bluster on the subject (like nearly everything else he says, that's just a stunt). And of course the deep state will remind them that it's actually important, and if they insist on disengaging, they should get as much out of Putin in return as they can.
But both ideologically and from their various statements (especially Vance's "I really don't care about Ukraine one way or another"), that's definitely the way they'll be leaning.
Putin knows this of course, that's why it seems he had been hoping (up until Biden's exit from the race) that if he would just keep his a foot to pedal, and keep throwing his people into the wood chopper, then come 2025 there'd be a good chance he'll get to sit face to face with Trump again (whom he normally wouldn't so fond of, but for this issue), as a kind of a Hail Mary pass.
You are right that the Democrats do appear to be dilly-dallying, basically -- and one could dissect this further as to whether it's simply a lack of resolve, or that they simply lack a clear vision of how to bring this thing to an acceptable resolution without incurring too high of a risk of a nuclear escalation (likely it's a bit of both).
But that's very different from the Trump-Vance position (and that of a majority of alt-right types it seems) of simply not giving a fuck about the basic principles of the situation either way, and openly saying so. (Or of perhaps caring sort-of about the basic principles, but being too caught up in their bubble world to understand the basic history of the region, let alone to figure out how to read the tea leaves of the current situation).
I am actually hopeful, as are the Ukrainians I talk to (though they will generally be ready to acknowledge that there multiple paths available to the long-term strategic victory that they ultimately seek). Especially now that Trump and Vance seem to be heading for the ropes.
"Discover how nations' expenditures on space programs, telescopes and interplanetary communications are shifting balance of power and influencing 21st century warfare strategies. This is an eye-opening dive into the terrestrial impact of humanity's cosmic curiosity and interstellar reach."
Maybe it's because up until recently, space has been tacitly off-limits for warfare... but then I remember the Star Wars program and I wonder if I'm misremembering.
1. https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/americas-spac... (posted three hours ago)
2. https://archive.is/ZDykj (posted 23 minutes ago)
-Ghost Fleet: A Novel of the Next World War by P.W.Singer and August Cole https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2J8BG-XlCfeNHlYbWN4aVhDQlE...
-World War Z, by Max Brooks.
Furthermore, where should missiles lie? This distracts from the Army, Navy, and AF's core missions.
This is why ALL countries are constituting their own "Space Force" or "Rocket Force" - to manage missiles and geospatial intel gathering.
Why have we waited until missiles are fading from relevance, years after the end of the cold war, and only now decided they need their own branch?
That's why we don't much care if the missile crews sitting around in underground bunkers are napping, playing xbox, wearing pyjamas, taking LSD and cheating on their proficiency exams.
And the fact there won't be a launch is a great thing - No reasonable person would enjoy it if mutually assured destruction was to occur.
Basically, most countries need a dedicated org to manage A2AD and Geospatial strategy - Missiles, Rockets, Satellites, you name it.
Before the USSF the closest thing to this was a couple sub-departments within the USAF, US Army, and USN plus the NGA (which is just a supporting agency).
This has been something on the books for decades now [0]
The private sector can then get employees by paying above the minimum wage offered by the defense department job program.
How would you determine the wage level of the govt?
How would you differentiate pay at the govt?
How would you prevent govt sector bloat and excessive spending?
How would you ensure people put in the work required at the govt if they were guaranteed a job?
2. Uh, the same as now? Just because you work for the government doesn't mean you earn min eage. I'm pretty sure Generals make more than $15k per year.
3. People that have jobs spend money in the economy to buy things. Private sector economy benefits from this.
4. You would have to do tasks to get paid. It's a job if you want it. Not forced. The idea is to curb unemployment.
The government already exists and has solved these problems before, I don't know why explicitly having jobs programs would be any different. Calling for UBI is a failure of imagination. As a society we should take care of those on the lowest rungs of the ladder, but there's more than enough work and thus jobs out there to be done, the only problem is funding them. If the government paid out $100 for every tree planted, we'd do well for the environment and have a whole lot more gardeners.
Out of curiosity, have you or anyone you know served in any armed forces?
But the military is uniquely patient when, for example, an already-very-expensive jet fighter ends up 10 years late and 80% over budget. And uniquely able, among government departments, to buy things like Javelin missiles that cost $200,000 a shot. Or to send $12bn in cash into Iraq, as literal pallets and truckloads of banknotes, into Iraq and somehow... lose it all and not be able to account for it. Or to be unable to pass any sort of account audits, as they can't find about 63% of their assets.
What's more, from the perspective of a politician, military spending makes for a great jobs program - because you can reasonably require your suppliers manufacture in America from components sourced in America AND small government types will approve military spending AND you get to look tough and strong.
What about Google+?
The Apple Vision Pro?
New X-Men movies from Disney?
Perhaps the US military is not so unique after all when it comes to projects that don't pan out.
Most of these defense contracts that have gone way over have left the taxpayer paying for it all. In many cases, the defense contractor ends up better off because of the slip. And even very troubled programs that would have been killed in industry ages ago continue to survive.
This is what he was referring to with "But the military is *uniquely patient* when..." It's not the failure that's the problem.
Well that's one way to grow a private army to overthrow your country: capitalist incentives
Source: CDC.
Note that Social Security, pretty much the leading entitlement program, requires that you pay into it before being able to draw.