197 karma · joined March 22, 2014
They lose me with their idea of "models" where I have a global dispatch that can be extended, like dispatch.modelName.actionName. That's just old school object-oriented thinking layered on top of redux's functional programming ideals.
The answer boils down to this: if you have a good idea but people are rejecting it, find a new way to talk about it.
The question your bot is trying to solve is, "should I buy or sell this stock?" And the criteria is, "will this stock be up or down in the next X minutes."
Let the bots play in a fake market until they start to make money. It should be enough to give each bot a pot of money ($10k?) and call it dead when it goes broke or call it "good" when it makes good bets.
This is a good space for ML because the inputs are fairly well understood (stock tickers and a small set of common stock metric values). You can add in some novel inputs, like weather data in all of the trading capitals of the world (NYC, Toyko, etc).
The two tricks are this:
1) You need a community of bots that are all communicating with each other. Meaning, each bot knows what the other bots think, and how much money they have.
2) You need to let each individual bot's neural network evolve. Meaning, let the "best" performing bots "breed" with each other. Also meaning, let the values in the neural network set themselves through evolution/random rather than bothering with backpropagation.
This toy [1], showing an evolutionary neural network "learning" to follow a maze should be inspiring. Or, imagine a version of Agar.io [2] where you had to decide if a pellet (a stock) was a good idea to eat/purchase.
[1] https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_and_Billy_Bush_re...
[3] http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/sally-yates-pr...
The movie studios likely don't see it this way. Tickets and merchandising are still the two main pillars of the industry. Home viewing is still the bottom end of the market [1]. The embrace of streaming represents a loss of revenue, not a gain of consumer good will [6].
Physical media (DVD/BluRay) are much more lucrative. Studios have an incentive to keep selling a pennies-worth of plastic for $20. Streaming represents a major loss of revenue and the studios will stall and delay until consumer demand forces them to change.
People still buy millions of BluRay movies each year [2]. Now the studios are trying to compete directly with Netflix, rather than embrace the changing consumer landscape. This is largely a continuation of Blockbuster's long, slow demise [3].
In order to feed the lucrative parts of the distribution chain (movie tickets, merch, physical media), Hollywood is increasingly churning out "big" movies. This has spawned a new phenomenon called "super hero fatigue" [5]. Many are predicting the demise of blockbusters altogether in the near future [4].
But don't expect studios to change until it's proven that they can't make money the old way.
[1] http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/093015/how-ex...
[2] http://www.denofgeek.com/us/movies/blu-ray/263154/falling-dv...
[3] https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/11/06/3-bonehead...
[4] http://www.cracked.com/blog/why-blockbuster-movie-bubble-wil...
[5] http://www.rollingstone.com/movies/news/10-signs-that-you-ha...
[6] http://www.latimes.com/business/hollywood/la-fi-ct-home-vide...
In the US, Comcast and Verizon are more analogous to the BBC in England -- TV is less expensive (as an individual monthly cost) when it is publicly funded.
Interestingly, the BBC is investing heavily to compete with Netflix [1]. If you live in an area that the BBC serves, you will likely need fewer streaming services to get the content you want.
[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/04/uk-broadcaster-bbc-invests-4...
Piracy is the only thing that will lead to a consumer friendly streaming option. If it weren't for music piracy, a service like Spotify might not exist. For video, Bit Torrent was popular for years.
Now people are flocking to things like Kodi, which can be installed on a Firestick [3] and, with add-ons, can stream anything for free [1]. In order to fight piracy, the studios will need to make it more convenient for consumers to pay [2].
[1] http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/new...
[2] http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/liz-bales/online-piracy-netf...
Exactly! It is obvious that Netflix and Amazon are pivoting to be more like HBO and Showtime. Apparently, as they reach out to a global audience they need to rely on original content to avoid costly licensing disputes [1].
[1] https://www.wired.com/2016/12/amazon-netflix-look-shows-key-...
Arguably, right now Comcast Xfinity has the most/best streamable content if you pay for HBO. This will likely change soon; this has been a long time coming. Cord-cutting is increasingly popular [2] and the studios are adapting.
Disney is gambling that they own enough content to make your top 5 list of streaming subscriptions.
[1] http://fortune.com/2016/09/23/average-cable-tv-bill/
[2] https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20170531/05304937480/rate-...
[1] http://www.reuters.com/article/chrsyelr-ceo-evs-idUSL1N0O71M...
[2] https://www.ispot.tv/ad/AWs5/2016-dodge-charger-when-it-rain...
[3] http://futurefuelstrategies.com/2017/07/20/ev-sales-projecti...
[4] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/17/volkswagen-be...
[5] https://electrek.co/2017/06/26/porsche-electric-vehicles-mis...
[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamhartung/2017/03/22/sears-to...
[2] http://io9.gizmodo.com/25-obsolete-technologies-that-future-...
[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/17/demand-for-electric-vehicles...
[2] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/electric-car-sale...
"[I]t’s important to realize that the situation reflected in this data represents the past, not the present. States across the country are rapidly cleaning up their grids, thanks to cap-and-trade programs, investments in renewable energy, tightened air quality standards, and more coal plants put to sleep." [2]
"Here’s the cool thing about electric vehicles in the U.S. right now: In many areas, the longer you own one, the cleaner it gets." [1]
[1] https://www.citylab.com/life/2017/06/electric-vehicles-are-c...
[2] https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2016/12/the-surprisin...
[1] https://greentransportation.info/energy-transportation/evs-n...
[2] https://electrek.co/2017/06/05/electric-cars-cleaner-than-ga...
[3] https://cleantechnica.com/2017/05/16/coal-use-china-india-li...
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-14/big-oil-j...
[2] https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2017/04/30/indias-a...
[3] https://thinkprogress.org/norway-aims-to-end-sales-of-fuel-b...
[4] http://www.fleetcarma.com/buying-ev-low-oil-prices/
[5] http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
[6] http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/crude-oil/5-...
[7] https://www.pluglesspower.com/learn/driving-electricity-chea...
[1] https://www.theatlantic.com/news/archive/2017/07/volvos-elec...
[2] https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2017/07/29/italian...
[3] https://www.ft.com/content/a43ac2ce-3198-11e7-9555-23ef563ec...
[4] https://www.forbes.com/sites/bertelschmitt/2017/01/30/its-of...
Many surveys have shown that people want electric cars [1, 2]. While the car industry overall has declined [3], the EV segment has continued to grow [4]. While it's possible that people don't want to own an EV, the available evidence hints at future growth in the EV segment [5].
[1] https://www.fool.com/investing/2016/09/20/consumers-are-more...
[2] https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/02/30-of-us-buyers-conside...
[3] http://money.cnn.com/2017/08/01/news/july-car-sales/index.ht...
[4] http://blog.ucsusa.org/peter-oconnor/electric-car-rolling-sa...
[5] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-25/electric-...
[1] http://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/schooled_in_sports/2012/12/lo...
[2] http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/high-school-footba...
[3] http://www.tsn.ca/a-possible-breakthrough-on-testing-cte-1.2...
[4] http://www.traumaticbraininjury.net/why-concussions-are-so-h...
[5] http://www.gq.com/story/the-concussion-diaries-high-school-f...
[6] https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2017/07/26/is-footba...
It's true that a HackerNews thread has a lower global-political impact than, say, a presidential tweet or a Supreme Court ruling. But that shouldn't prevent anyone from thinking through their HN comments. Words matter.
The comment we're both responding to [1] was unnecessarily divisive -- which partially obscured the commenter's otherwise good points (that team-thinking can obscure rational thinking). And that's particularly important on a website like HackerNews.
Original divisive comment: "[Has football joined the list of] values that separate members of the Red Tribe from the Blue Tribe? Football is a red-state pastime." [1]
The comment you responded to: "You're creating [divisive] discourse [by posing divisive questions]." [2]
I think your response, pointing out that a comment on HN usually won't "create" a nationally divisive discourse [3], is missing the point. If you look at the rest of the thread you can see that it created a divisive debate within HackerNews. I think the point you're missing is that divisive language creates divisions wherever it is used and it's worthwhile to point that out -- even if you think you're only talking to yourself.
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14867048
Other sports, like football, present a much harder challenge. Even if you remove direct head contact as a variable, most aspects of tackling can result in concussions. The reason football is uniquely controversial is that minor concussions are mostly inevitable and severe concussions are commonplace.
By contrast, the most likely way to get a concussion in soccer is to head the ball, which isn't fundamental to gameplay. In any sport, you might run into another player at high speed but that's not typically a core part of the gameplay. Football is controversial because it's hard to fix.
Also, everyone from the marching band still remembers marching through Disney World in 100+ degree heat in full marching uniforms. It was tough and it was a memorable bond we all shared.
Because it's possible to experience the benefits of camaraderie without the risks of brain damage, it's sensible to question if football is too dangerous for children.
Examples:
- People with red hats on are my friends
- People that like chocolate ice cream are idiots
- People who let their children play football are Trump voters
Also anecdotally, I had a Lyft driver who was also a high school football coach who was well versed in how many concussions occur in soccer. He wanted to tell me that football is as safe/dangerous as any other sport. That type of denialism--believing that mounting evidence can be safely ignored--is found in other "red" issues such as climate change, coal jobs, and Russia-gate.
[1] High schools are closing football programs. https://www.si.com/mmqb/2015/11/23/high-schools-dropping-and...
[2] Soccer is possibly a blue state thing. http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2014/jul/10/...
[3] NFL doctors downplayed the dangers. http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/03/18/nfl-doctor-s...
An analogy would be if VSCode shipped with a fancy CodePlex dashboard by default (I know CodePlex is dead). There's an obvious incentive for them to pick sides but it's not in the best interest of the people using the editor nor the editor itself.