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heisenbergs

317 karma · joined June 10, 2016

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heisenbergs··on When Do Investors Freak Out? Machine Learning Predictions of Panic Selling [pdf]
Cambridge analytica, containing all facebook data for 87M people?
heisenbergs··on I kept honking at a sleeping Tesla driver on the freeway, but she didn’t wake up
Apparently, it'll pull over and turn on the emergency blinking lights.

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-autopil...

heisenbergs··on A third of Stitch Fix employees quit after new CEO ends flexible work hours
This. This was basically a lay off in disguise, and yet it's being portrayed as the opposite. Stichfix has continually automated many of their processes using their 100+ data scientists. This is no different.

The company's executive has continually failed at PR though, which is hammering the stock price. Unbelievable that they're letting this narrative just persist.

heisenbergs··on How Yevgeny Zamyatin shaped dystopian fiction
"We" by Zamyatin is one of the best books I read all of last year. It's out of copy right, so freely downloadable too. Found it much more compelling than either a brave new world or 1984, even though both those books are also great. "We" seemed much more coherent and thought through.

Reading his back story makes this even more interesting, given that he was living in a totalitarian state. I'd recommend reading his Wikipedia entry too.

In short: highly recommended reading.

heisenbergs··on AirPods Max: An Audiophile Review
Airpod Pros do exactly that too.

Never seen over the ear headphones come with alternative cups (though easily doable with the Max as they're detachable)

heisenbergs··on What is good and bad about the F-35 cockpit
> One of the biggest drawbacks is that you can’t brace your hand against anything whilst typing – think how much easier it is to type on a smartphone with your thumbs versus trying to stab at a virtual keyboard on a large tablet with just your index finger

This is a common problem for large touch screens, that I've experienced for instance in Tesla's massive displays too. the way around it: always rest part of your hand against something stable, ie in the tesla wrap your pinky around the display and then use your thumb or index finger. For me it increased accuracy from 80% to 99%. This doesn't work if you need to touch the center of the screen, all other parts work great.

heisenbergs··on Signal is having technical difficulties
for changing amazon smile: is it "Signal Technology Foundation - Location: Mountain View, CA"? no description available unfortunately. seem to be a bunch with the name signal and that was the closest in name to what seems to be the signal foundation
heisenbergs··on About 150 U.S. Cadillac Dealers to Exit Brand, Rather Than Sell Electric Cars
That's a terrible idea from a user perspective. All of ionity and tesla's superchargers are in urban or shopping areas that allow you to quickly buy some food, go shopping or go to a bathroom in a respectable location.

I personally would have zero interest in going to my car dealership as their locations are typically far away from anything urban or of interst.

heisenbergs··on Apple Silicon M1: A Developer's Perspective
The reason it has been stuck to 16GB is precisely because Intel mobile chips did not support any more than that up until a year ago. So rather than blaming Apple, it should rather be placed on intel.

I don't think expecting more than 16GB of ram for entry level Apple laptops should be expected.

The low amount of ram, energy inefficiency and plateauing performance are the exact reason why Apple is moving away from Intel and onto a platform where they can control their own destiny.

heisenbergs··on 16-inch MBP 2x slower than M1 MacBook Air in a real-world Rust compile
According to anandtech the memory throughput is off the charts at 68.25GB/s [1]. That's twice as fast as high speed ddr4 memory (DDR4-4000 at 32GB/s).

In other words: they totally trounced and took it to the next level with regards to memory, because they can. If anything, memory control is their biggest advantage. Scaling the amount of ram won't be an issue. Increasing the bandwidth perhaps, but it'll still be way quicker than what Intel or AMD offer. This seems like something their next gen M2 version could tackle as a somewhat low hanging fruit.

[1] https://www.anandtech.com/show/16252/mac-mini-apple-m1-teste...

heisenbergs··on Apple unveils M1, its first system-on-a-chip for portable Mac computers
The responses here seem to not really acknowledge what a rabbit apple has been pulling out of the hat. 2-3x the performance both from a CPU and GPU perspective, whilst being far more energy and thermally efficient. Of course this was kind of known and rumoured, but now we know.

Finally real competition for intel. If only these chips were available to others. they are literally running laps around the competition.

Curious where Apple's pro offerings will go, and whether these will be available as servers...

heisenbergs··on Apple Silicon M1 – What to Expect, Based on A14
Apple clearly has an edge when it comes to silicon that others just won't be able to replicate anytime soon. From a cost perspective, just eliminating 4-5 chips by utilizing a System-on-a-Chip (SoC) allows them to create much simpler logic boards whilst saving hundreds of dollars. Not to mention saving the intel tax or being burdened by intel's lack of progress.

The big question remaining is how is this going to scale further up the mac pro line-up? I'd imagine a chiplet like architecture similar to AMDs zen3 is the way forward. But will they go all the way to 64 CPUs and beyond? Or will they just stick to a single SoC chip?

What cadence will they upgrade these chips with? I'd expect something closer to what the ipad has done with the AX chips, ie every 2 years. Questions.

Very interesting times. I want one, badly, just to have more than the meagre 2-4 hours of realistic batterly life i get on my 2017 MBP.

heisenbergs··on Why are some bilingual people dyslexic in English but not their other language?
The written English language is an odd one. It's technically not at all standardized, or if so by some private non-officially or only locally recognized institutions. Unlike other languages, say French and German, that are strictly maintained and rules set by an official institution that may even be cross-border (Germany-Austria). These haven't been shy to institute bigger changes just to make the written language more coherent.

Really this just shows how the British empire managed to spread it's word (literally) but not manage to manage it properly. We now have a litany of different English language versions, which is interesting from a cultural perspective but entirely contradicts what a language is made for: communicating.

We really ought to start officially standardizing the English language and untangling the current written mess. That way we'd make 10% of English speaker's lives much better...

heisenbergs··on Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4
simple back of the envelope calculation: in 3 years time, they will have 3 giga factories (+1 in upstate new york), each of which should be scale to 500k cars. at an average resale price of $50k (might be a little lower, but let's keep it simple), that's $75B in revenue. at a 10% profit margin, that's $7.5B profit. let's presume a 20x factor as a growth stock, you have an evaluation of $150B, which it's currently trending to.

This is excluding any other growth opportunities (self driving, solar, battery storage, drive train). just plain car sales...

heisenbergs··on AMD Q4:16-core Ryzen 9 3950X, Threadripper Up To 32-Core 3970X
absolutely. from my prior calculations buying hardware yourself pays for itself within 2 1/2 months. the cloud is expensive as hell. you pay dearly for not having to manage your own hardware and scalability...
heisenbergs··on German government expands subsidies for electric cars
Not according to Musk and his tweets. The Dutch/French/German border area is what he stated the likely candidate. Plus Tesla Grohman and Tesla EU HQ are nearby.
heisenbergs··on The iPhone 11 Camera, Part 1: A Completely New Camera
Same. I actually bought a last gen Sony RX100 VII and the difference in quality is negligible, other than the Sony having 20MP and the iphone only 12. This means the tiny iphone 11 pro sensor can produce similar results to a 1in top-of-the-line compact camera. This is mind-boggling.

After comparing them, I'm convinced that it's only a matter of time until phones are going to catch up to full frame cameras. Software these days is more important than the raw hardware it seems...

heisenbergs··on Brazil’s leading payment processor begins accepting Bitcoin
Is this in any way related to neighbouring nations with inflation issues (Venezuela, Argentina) being a target market?! Also curious how variable transaction costs are taken care of?! these weren't insignificant in the single US dollar range during the last crypto high when bitcoin was around $20k. does the payer or buyer shoulder them?
heisenbergs··on Apple has pushed a silent Mac update to remove hidden Zoom web server
I always wondered why the zoom app required root permissions, which is why I never installed it in the first place. What would a video conferencing app ever need root permissions for?! Now we know: a backdoor.

Thank god for Apple putting down the law. This is why I happily pay premium prices...

heisenbergs··on Apple kills the non-Touch Bar MacBook Pro
Same. That plus the realization that you can adjust volume or screen brightness by holding the brightness/volume button and then simply sliding left or right made it actually intuitively usable. It's still a little gimmicky and probably not worth the effort.
heisenbergs··on Tesla's giant battery saved $40M during its first year, report says
While the scalability behind silicon was perhaps easier and faster, there are similar effects at work for batteries.

Li-ion batteries are typically spooled in layers [1] (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium-ion_battery#/media/Fil...). The thinner the layers, the higher the capacity as you have a smaller distance between positive and negative layers. From my discussion with battery chemists, this is what is primarily driving the annual ~15% reduction, economies of scale also obviously playing a role.

Unsure what the theoretical limit of battery size layers is, and how far off we are from that, but the thinner we get those layers, the higher capacity the batteries per weight and also presumably price.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium-ion_battery#Shapes

heisenbergs··on New Lower-Cost, AMD-Powered M5a and R5a EC2 Instances
The pricing seems to be around 10% cheaper than the equivalent Intel based servers (m5a.4xlarge $0.688 per Hour vs m5.4xlarge $0.768 per Hour, similar for other instance sizes). I was expecting AMD servers to be somewhat cheaper, but given that the server CPU is only one of many components I guess the savings can't be that much more. Would be interesting to see how the actual performance per $ is different.

Exciting to have AMD on AWS though. Still far more expensive than rolling your own hardware or getting bare metal servers.

heisenbergs··on Tesla meets Q3 production goals of 50,000 to 55,000 Model 3s
Gross margins for model S and X are 25%+. The model 3 is supposedly profitable, at the scale that they have now achieved. Tesla's big spend is on R&D on new product lines, and ramping up production. In other words: their core business has long been cash flow positive. It's the growth that is requiring all the cash and creating short term losses.
heisenbergs··on Germany launches world's first hydrogen-powered train
Not if the hydrogen comes from hydrocarbons, which right now is all hydrogen. In this case, it's just an inefficient proxy for fossil fuels...
heisenbergs··on Germany launches world's first hydrogen-powered train
This is obviously great new tech, though one shouldn't see this as a solution to global warming. Until we find a cheaper scale-able way of producing hydrogen that doesn't come from hydrocarbons, this isn't really a solution. Might as well burn the the hydrocarbons directly...
heisenbergs··on x86 finds its way into the iPhone
unlikely. intel's baseband originates from infineon which intel bought a couple of years back. Hence it probably was a pure ARM baseband until intel purchased them and insisted on using x86 cores?! very weird move, particularly as i'd assume it also still has ARM cores in the baseband, making it a mix of x86/ARM cores.
heisenbergs··on Solid-state battery startup claims breakthrough for electric vehicles
i believe that's the case with current batteries too. Car batteries, such as Tesla's, require both heating and cooling elements to keep them in an acceptable temperature range. Unsure what the exact temperature range is, but my guess is it's not too far off of those ranges.

Interesting fact: Tesla achieves their ludicrous mode (2.3 seconds 0-100kph) by pre-heating their batteries so that more power can be drawn. During my test drive, it took an estimated 40 minutes to heat the batteries to do this...

heisenbergs··on The Real Cost of the 2008 Financial Crisis
Not entirely true. We let one of the massive banks fail. Lehman brothers is no more...
heisenbergs··on Probiotics labelled 'quite useless'
the issue is rather the quality of the articles and what we as humans in general prefer to read. we'd rather read about an extreme (this is the greatest, this is the worst) or a conflict (person a says the opposite to person b). it's basically just a symptom of decaying journalistic standards. incidentally it's often also cheaper to produce such content.

there is probably an academic consensus that goes one way or the other, but our journalism has decayed enough that they don't even bother researching this.

heisenbergs··on Amazon hits $1T market cap
It's not quite as simple as it just being the USD's strength. In Turkey's case, they are highly leveraged and have probably spent above their means for the last decade whilst growth was also healthy. Now growth is so so, the USD is getting stronger making the debt ratio worse, there is relatively high inflation and consequently the loan markets are becoming tight for Turkey as people are becoming wary about repayments..

Edit: Erdogan's (Turkey's prime minister) strongman attitude, a perceived power grab as well as attack on independent journalism might be contributing too.

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