112 karma · joined December 24, 2020
After you get stuck, you should pick one thing at a time to focus on improving. But the one thing should probably be related to tesuji or life and death.
Is this really the order of events? I imagine the pre-calculated route is what you'd try first, and only go for extra hardware if that failed somehow.
I would have imagined that we could upgrade the communication equipment on a space probe much more easily than we could add fuel for a return trip.
Furthermore, a predictive model is not working with a complete picture of the weather, but rather some limited-resolution measurements. So, even ignoring non-weather, there may be local weather phenomena detected at time t0, escaping detection at time t1, but still affecting weather at time t2.
How would we compute the value of BB(748)?
I find it slightly odd that the game length is calibrated to "reasonable" games but the branching factor is not.
If the goal is to estimate the number of possible games of go, then the calculation would be dominated by the number of long games rather than the number of short games, and very long games are possible.
If the goal is to estimate the number of "reasonable" games of go, then the branching factor should also be much smaller, as most possible moves are not reasonable. Perhaps the logarithm of the branching factor could be estimated as the entropy of some policy model such at that of KataGo.
P.S. I am happy to have received a reply from the mighty Tromp!
By analogy, if you resize a 1025x1025 image to 1024x1024, it's usually going to look bad.
Even if the model knows the exact answer to the question, there may be many distinct ways of phrasing the answer. This would also lead to low confidence in any particular phrasing.
I would disagree with this description. An "emergent property of large networks" would be something that just appears when you wire together a large network.
To get intelligent behavior, it's not sufficient to wire together a large neural network. You also need to use an optimizer to train it on a large data set.
For example, the Wikipedia article on AI-completeness mentions Bongard problems and Autonomous driving as examples of problems that might be AI-complete.
OK, so if I have an AI drives autonomously, is there some known querying strategy that I can use to make it solve Bongard problems? Can a Bongard problem-solving AI be made, by some known procedure to drive a car?
Without such reductions, at least the analogy to NP-hardness is incomplete. I believe these reductions are precisely what makes NP-hardness such a useful concept; even though we still haven't proven that any of these problems are objectively "hard," we are still able to show that if one of them is hard, then the others are as well!
I am just guessing, but perhaps your intuition is that the shortest path should lie along a line of latitude. An easy-to-see counterexample would be two points close to the north pole, but with 180 degrees of longitude separating them. In this case the shortest path actually goes through the north pole, rather than around it.
You can also generalize this say that within the northern hemisphere, the shortest path between two points will curve (when viewed on a flat map) towards the north pole.
If we are sorting by comparison, then each comparison will eliminate at most half of the possible cases. So we need at least log_2(n!) comparisons in the worst case.